From the members’ post… my test chase tip from today at Bangor… my main chase tips focus on the staying chases (2m7f+) but i’m endeavouring to become an all round ‘chase specialist’ – and I like to test myself in live play. The action will hot up in the coming weeks, but so far so good.
Today’s selection is below, and if nothing else there’s a few stats for Venetia Williams you may wish to note down, that will point you to a few winners in the months ahead…
Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/9,5p, +8.3)
(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)
3.30 Bangor – First Figaro – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen)
that’s all for today, as of 09.01, write up…
This is an awful race, full of exposed chasers who’ve generally been running in weak summer chases. I didn’t want to be with any of them and IF the selection builds on his chase debut LTO, he will outrun these odds. It’s a strange time of year to be backing a Venetia Williams chaser but this one looks to need decent ground.
There’s a few ‘stats’ that are useful, as a foundation at least…
-In handicap chases at Bangor, with those returning 60+ days, she’s 4/11,6p, +30 in the last 5 years.
-In that same time period in all handicap chases / class 4 / 60+ days / Charlie D riding … 5/18,6p.
-Since the start of 2014 with horses running in a handicap chase, having had just one chase run previously… 11/44, 19p, +6 SP… those returning 46-180 days from last start… 4/10,4p.
The horse knows how to win and his mark keeps tumbling. On ‘inform’ speed figures his run LTO was the best in here, so some ‘numbers’ to give confidence to that effort. He generally jumped well there and may appreciate this tighter track and slightly shorter trip.
Finally, of most interest was the fact that all his wins/best form, have come when running fresh. Indeed off 90+ day breaks he’s 3/8, 7p in his career. It’s likely then that there wasn’t an issue since his last run, more so that canny connections wanted to give him a break – given that profile i’d like to think he’ll be tuned up here. It would be very strange if he wasn’t as this looks to be the time to catch him.
So, i’ve an unexposed chaser who knows how to win (his Hereford novice hurdle win was decent enough, a few subsequent winners in behind), in a weak race full of exposed sorts, with some decent stats, some ratings support, and his rest pattern profile.
If he doesn’t take this then it’s very open, but I couldn’t be with any of the others, certainly those 9/2<. The selection is the most interesting in here by quite some way. Fingers crossed. He’s the sort where the market may well guide.
Best of luck, Josh