Members Daily Post: 30/08/19 (complete)

Sat Trends Pointers, test tip x1, Nick’s Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Sat trends

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Thirsk

3.40 –

Al Qahwa (micro TJC) 9/1

Captain Colby (m dist) 25/1

The Armed Man (all Hc’s) 16/1

4.15 –

Florenza (all Hc’s) 14/1

Saluti (m class and age) G3 I3 6/1

Start Time (m class and age) w2  11/1

5.45 – Buccaneers Vault (m dist) G3 I1 5/1

 

Hamilton

6.55 –

Archis Affaire (3yo+) 9/1

My Reward (all Hc’s) ES+ 33/1 S3A

Beyond The Clouds (3yo+) w1 7/1

Dark Lochnagar (m runs) w2 H3 12/1

Multellie (all Hc’s) ES+ 33/1 S3A

Elysian Flame (all Hc’s) 9/1

7.25 –

Shrewd (m runs) G1 16/1 S6 

Dragon Mountain (m runs) 16/1

8.00 – Guardia Svizzera (all Hc’s) 11/2

 

Sandown……None

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JUMPS

Bangor

2.20 –

Goohar (all Hc’s) 12/1

Chasma (m TJC) w1 H1 I1 13/8

3.30 – Zolfo (HcCh) H3  4/1

4.05 –

Beach Break (HcH) I3 13/2

Birch Vale (HcH,m runs) w2 H3 11/2

Nefyn Bay (HcH,m -dist and runs) 40/1

Embole (m TJC) 6/1

4.40 – Danceintothelight (HcH) I3 10/1

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/87, 30p +44.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/9,5p, +8.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

3.30 Bangor – First Figaro – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen)

that’s all for today, as of 09.01, write up…

This is an awful race, full of exposed chasers who’ve generally been running in weak summer chases. I didn’t want to be with any of them and IF the selection builds on his chase debut LTO, he will outrun these odds. It’s a strange time of year to be backing a Venetia Williams chaser but this one looks to need decent ground.

There’s a few ‘stats’ that are useful, as a foundation at least…

-In handicap chases at Bangor, with those returning 60+ days, she’s 4/11,6p, +30 in the last 5 years.

-In that same time period in all handicap chases / class 4 / 60+ days / Charlie D riding … 5/18,6p.

-Since the start of 2014 with horses running in a handicap chase, having had just one chase run previously… 11/44, 19p, +6 SP… those returning 46-180 days from last start… 4/10,4p.

The horse knows how to win and his mark keeps tumbling. On ‘inform’ speed figures his run LTO was the best in here, so some ‘numbers’ to give confidence to that effort. He generally jumped well there and may appreciate this tighter track and slightly shorter trip.

Finally, of most interest was the fact that all his wins/best form, have come when running fresh. Indeed off 90+ day breaks he’s 3/8, 7p in his career. It’s likely then that there wasn’t an issue since his last run, more so that canny connections wanted to give him a break – given that profile i’d like to think he’ll be tuned up here. It would be very strange if he wasn’t as this looks to be the time to catch him.

So, i’ve an unexposed chaser who knows how to win (his Hereford novice hurdle win was decent enough, a few subsequent winners in behind), in a weak race full of exposed sorts, with some decent stats, some ratings support, and his rest pattern profile.

If he doesn’t take this then it’s very open, but I couldn’t be with any of the others, certainly those 9/2<. The selection is the most interesting in here by quite some way. Fingers crossed. He’s the sort where the market may well guide.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

4.15 Thirsk – Start Time – 1 point EW- 10/1 (1/5,4p gen) (11s WH)

8.00 Hamilton – Everkyllachy – 1 point EW –  16/1 (gen, 1/4, 3p) (1/5,4p in places) 18s (betfS/PP)

that’s all from Nick, as of 08.14 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

3.30 Bangor – Sigurd

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Some race trends for Saturday: Read HERE>>>

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PLEASE NOTE…

Saturday’s post will follow first thing Saturday morning. I’ll put up a holding post later on. I’m off to Sefton Park for some live music at 2pm, inc Kings of Leon. I’ll behave myself 🙂

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Saturday ‘Trends’ Shortlists

2.05 Beverley 

Only the 6 runners line up for this..

Trainers (who’ve won race, with runners…)

  • Victory Command / Dark Vision
  • Arctic Fox

 

2.25 Sandown 

Trainers T (who’ve won race, with runners…)

  • Migration
  • Solid Stone
  • Mutaabeq

The 8/8 stats leave… 8/29, 12p, +101 BFSP>>>

  • Country
  • Migration T
  • Mutaabeq T
  • My Boy Sepoy

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    5.55 Hamilton Be Bold BOG 5/1
    7.15 Newcastle Kodi Koh BOG 5/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.15 Thirsk Magical Effect BOG 9/1
    4.30 Wolverhampton Tour De Paris BOG 5/2
    7.05 Wolverhampton Cape Victory BOG 7/2
    Colin.

    1. I have Queen Aya, 2.10 Sandown, win only, for Ed Walker included for my analysis.
      I will put up some updated figures for these guys on Sunday.

      Good luck Martin

  2. Hey Mark C,

    Hope all ok with you? Now that the nights are drawing in and we are getting full programmes of A/W meetings just wondering whether you are planning to dust off your tipping boots?

    Cheers

    Ben

    1. Hi Ben, thanks for the shout-out. All good thanks. My AW betting over the summer has been atrocious. George B has suffered the same fate. We will wait till the winter AW returns and see how we go.If I hit some form I will start posting again.

      All the best.

  3. Planned to be back in around the middle of August but a tad late….have had a look at the 3.05 Thirsk.

    Selection: Reclaim Victory e/w with win only saver on Fast And Free.

    Reason is Fast And Free was 5.75 lengths behind a subsequent G3 winner Boomer and is open to improvement and Reclaim Victory has won a race but should give Fast and Free a good run and with a bit of luck may just be good enough to beat the win only selection. Not a race to go mad in given the quality is not that good overall. Speed wise both are better than rivals running over 7f. at 36.39 mph for Fast and Free and 36.53 mph for Reclaim Victory…the latter has a penalty to carry for winning and has a claimer on board to counteract the weight rise and at around 13/2 is just about backable each way…pedigrees of both the selections is superior to other runners with the slight edge to Fast and Free having the sire Secretariat in the bloodline…hopefully on of the two woill prevail. Gd lck if playing

  4. 3.15 Sandown: Fascinating race.

    Selections: Into Faith and Bonus e/w:

    Worth a punt for small stakes e/w as there are several here with extremely good pedigrees. Palace Pier, Talap, Campari amongst them…the fav is too short but may well win but willing to back the above selections for small stakes…Into Faith has run ok over 7f clocking 37.10 mph which is a good time for the distance though the extra furlong is a question mark but at the price worth an e/w wager for small stakes. Gd lck if playing.

    1. The favourite was the only ride today for Mr Dettori today. Too short for me. I wonder what the figures are like for Frankie when he only has one ride at a meeting? A small sample likely and short prices.

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