Members Daily Post: 24/08/19 (complete: 09.21)

Nick’s Tipsx2, Chase Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, York

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Goodwood

3.15 – Pattie (3yo+) w1 G3 9/1 

 

York

3.40 –

Raheen House (4yo+) I3 G3 7/1 

Cleonte (all Hc’s) w2 33/1 

4.45 – Johnny Drama (all Hc’s) 8/1 

 

Redcar

7.00 –

Shrewd (all Hc’s,3yo+) G1 50/1 S6 

Rashdan (all Hc’s,3yo+) 12/1 

7.30 – Yes You (all Hc’s,3yo+) H3 9/1 

8.00 – Grimsdyke (micro class) w2 H1 I1 G1 10/3 S1 S4 

 

Windsor

5.50 –

Tin Hat (3yo+,m dist) w2 H3 5/1 

Iconic Knight (all Hc’s) ES+ I1 6/1 S3A S6 

Silca Princess (m going) G3 16/1 

7.50 –

Jack D’Or (all Hc’s) ES+ H3  8/1 S3A

Noble Fox (m going) H3 G3 6/1 

 

Newmarket…….None

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JUMPS

Cartmel

2.50 –

Bannixtown Glory (m dist) w1 H3 I3 5/2 

Oksana (all Hc’s) w2 H3 I3 13/2 

4.00 – Trumps Benefit (all Hc’s) ES+  9/1 S3A

4.35 – Forever My Friend (all Hc’s) ES+ 8/1 S3A

5.10 – Candy Burg (all Hc’s,HcH) ES+ 11/2 S3A

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/86, 30p +45.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

4.35 Cartmel – Day Of Roses- 1 point win – 7/2 (bet365) 10/3 (gen)

that’s all for today from me, as of 08.31, write up…

An eye-catcher 5 days ago I eventually concluded 10/3 was fair and he should be fav in this line up. I thought this was between the top three in the market but that run at Bangor is the best recent form in this, he’s fewer miles on the clock than the other two, and I think the track will help, as will this trip. He will be held up but provided he jumps as well as he can there’s a long long run in to get rolling. If this were proper soft I may have left it but the sun is shining and it’s drying all the time. He’s made a quick return before after a similar break and I don’t think that will be a problem. Brian Hughes rides this track very well and I thought he could just outclass these, relatively. It was borderline, but hopefully I’ve got it right. I have no idea whether Henry Brooke got to pick or not in truth, as he’s ridden both, so I decided not to over-think that!

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/9,5p, +8.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

7.00 Redcar – Queens Sargent – 1 point EW – 14/1 (gen)

7.30 Redcar – Yes You – 1 point EW – 9/1 (lad/coral) 8/1 (gen)

that’s all from Nick today, as of 09.21

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

2.50 Cart – River Icon (10/1, guide)

5.10 Cart – Candy Burg (8/1<)

Henry Brooke (25/1<)

4.35 Cart – Nortonthorpelegend

Jockeys/Chasers

4.00 Cart – Mash Potato (9/1< best)

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Chase Eye-Catchers

4.35 Cart – Day of Roses (1st run)

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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YORK: Ebor Pointers: READ HERE>>> 

 

York Day 4 Starting Points 

Trainers

2.25 – Hamish

3.40 – Raheen House / Dramatic Queen

5.20 – Que Amoro

Jockeys

1.50 – Wissahickon

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Stats/trends for a couple of York handicaps on Sat… HERE>>>

Saturday York Handicaps

Ebor Handicap

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Ben Vrackie / Weekender /
  • True Self / Max Dynamite
  • Red Galileo
  • Desert Skyline

Stats ‘shortlist’ 

Given that 3 of the top 4 last year carried 9-8+ it could be this race, like many top handicaps given the prize money, is going to the classier weighted horses near the top of the weights.

Looking at my other pointers, ignoring age, points to 13 of the last 15 winners and leaves 10…

Kings Advice / Withhold / Ben Vrackie T / Baghdad / Mustajeer / True Self T/ Prince of Arran / Dramatic Queen / Raymond Tusk / Cleonte 

From that subset those drawn 14+ are 10/57, 20p in the last 15 years, and leaves 5…

Kings Advice / Ben Vrackie / Baghdad / Prince of Arran / Raymond Tusk 

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4.45 York 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Forest of Dean
  • Johnny Drama
  • Furzig / Another Touch / Society Red

Stats ‘shortlist’ 

The 15/15, 13/15 stats leave 13/96, 33p in the last 15 renewals and leave 9…

Rise Hall / Johnny Drama T / Beringer / Furzig T/ Cockalorum / Poets Dawn / Society Red T / Star Archer / Glasses Up

Irish Breds have a fine record in this, and from that list above… Johnny Drama / Cockalorum 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Friday evening in Canada – Woodbine race 5 11.05 UK time.

    Spanish Express now 11/2 Betfair and Bet Victor. Expected to go off 3/1 or less SP.

    Good luck.

    1. The evening time frame for these to be up is now between 6 and 9 PM.

      The above selection was backed down to 3/1 but finished a close up 3rd of 7.

  2. York day 4.
    2-25. Hamish, Starczewski
    3-00. Eqtidaar, (Gordon Lord Byron nostalgic £1 ew)
    3-40. Dramatic Queen, Barsanti
    4-10. Streamline
    4-45. Fayez, Glasses Up
    5-20.. Amplify, Pass The Vino
    all £2 ew

    1. Hmm, can’t think he was in last year’s stats – I have just looked and he is 2/18,4p with all runners at Ebor Festival, 0/7,0p last 3 years. He’s won the Ebor previously.

    1. There was definitely one which related to running in Galway lto. May not have been solely Willie’s runners….?

      1. Ebor festival runners that ran Galway lto 8/42,16p +42pts.
        Last 2yrs 0/10,1p.
        AJ Martin 3w, WPM 2w, Weld 2/3,2p
        2x qualifiers today:
        2.25 Kings Vow
        4.45 Tudor City

        In the Ebor itself it’s 3/13,6p +36.5pts. A win each for WPM, Martin & Elliott.
        0/2,0p last 2yrs
        No qualifiers today

  3. COLINS BETS
    5.20 York Amplify BOG 14/1
    7.30 Redcar Poet’s Pride BOG 6/1
    7.30 Redcar Espirit De Corps BOG 9/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.40 York True Self BOG 25/1
    5.05 Newmarket Han Solo Berger BOG 7/1
    7.20 Windsor Medieval BOG 4/1
    Colin

  4. York
    Think 3pm either goes to Sir Daneclot, or Shine so bright receiving a nice bit of weight
    3.40 Baghdad and Ben Vrakie were the most obvious one’s at first, but then when I saw that Raymond Tusk is also only a 4yr old I fancy him above those trying a hard for first time and at a miles bigger price.
    The shorter price I will cover is King Advice after trying to get him beat the last few times, he could carry on improving and you know that he isn’t going to give up easily. Did back Meekong ante post last week at 22s along similar lines to RT but this is a race you could look at forever and back half the field

  5. My nap of the day is…..3.00 York, Speak In Colours, 1.5 points each way at 13/2.

    My next best is 5.20 York, Wedding Date, 1 point each way at 16/1.

    Good luck.

  6. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    4.40 Windsor Starfighter BOG 11/4
    5.50 Windsor Iconic Knight BOG 6/1
    7.50 Windsor Jack D’Or BOG 13/2 365 showing 8/1
    Jamie Osbourne
    intresting comment very rarely backs in nurserys, agree completly nothing from him today.
    Thats all for today
    Colin.

    1. I am also adding in to my analysis, an outsider with a semi favourable comment to its name – Ed Walker, 3.55 Newmarket, Fille De Reve each way.

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