Members Daily Post: 23/08/19 (complete:09.34)

York trends shortlists…Chase test tip x1 (+write up), Section 1 (complete), test zone , York day 3

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Ffos Las

2.50 – Ballyquin (all Hc’s)  10/1 

5.05 – Spirit of Nicobar (all Hc’s)  28/1 

 

York

1.55 – Genetics (all Hc’s) 22/1 

 

Goodwood

6.35 – Sir Maximilian (all Hc’s) ES+ 12/1 S3A

7.35 – Ghaziyah (all Hc’s) 14,30 w1 w2 H3 I3 13/8 

 

Newmarket and Salisbury………None

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/86, 30p +45.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/9,5p, +8.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

7.25 Killarney 

Valseur Lido – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP 7/1… ah, well he didn’t run that well, and the fav has hacked up off 162, class wins out. CAMLANN is the one to take out of that I think. Back over fences he travelled and generally jumped well (odd scrappy jump but he’s inexperienced) and he has form over further. They have all bumped into one there, who won despite pulling his way around. 

as of 09.04, write up…

To my eyes this isn’t a great race for the pot and IF the fav doesn’t win, it becomes very open indeed.

Valseur Lido isn’t getting any younger but he put in one of his best runs for some time LTO, (backed up by his RPR/TS figure) a few days after returning from a break in the Galway Plate. And this is no Galway Plate. He led until just after 2 out last time, beaten by Yorkhill and Some Neck – no shame in that. Looking through his profile would suggest that he’s always been best on a decent surface. Obviously he was high class in his younger days but even then his best form had some sort of Good or Yielding in the description but despite that he’s run plenty in soft/heavy, and never done too much. 2m4/5f looks his optimum trip also. I expect Rachael to be aggressive on him here and I thought he was worth a go at 12s. He’s got nothing on his back and that last run suggests there’s still plenty of ability there, certainly in the context of this race.

Of the rest…

Well Ballyoisin is a worthy fav as he’s just all class and i’m not sure he’s stopped improving yet. He does have a long break to overcome, but has won fresh and the yard are going well. But he does have plenty of weight to give away and although he could win this well I thought there was enough to take him on at 3s.

There are nibbles for Lakemilan, and I can see why. She’s in form, looks progressive and does like it around here. However, she’s up 8lb and of more concern is the trip – i’m yet to be convinced that she stays 20f, esp in a race run at a good clip. That isn’t conclusive but it’s enough of a niggle to put me off at 13/2. That felt about right however if she does stay, she won’t be far away.

There’s some money for Rock The World also but he is 11 and has stamina to prove also – I can leave him, but applaud this former Festival winner if he takes it. I couldn’t see it myself but it could be as he reaches his veteran years, that 20f is what he wants. I’m not sure.

Bar the selection, the fav and Lakemilan, I didn’t fancy much else in this. Internal Transfer is unexposed yet inexperienced, has a break to overcome and has to prove himself LH. He’s up 9lb and has a new jockey on for the first time. I didn’t want to dive in at 13/2. The West Away has a few questions after his recent form but is interesting to a point. The selection ran much better than him in the Plate however, and at 15/2, even with Robbie Power on (who’s often a big upgrade) I was happy to leave him.

I should mention Deans Road as a LTO winner but this is deeper and he’s now on a career high mark. I don’t think Rachael ‘has’ to ride the Giggy horses, I could be wrong, so there’s a chance she had the choice of the two HDB chasers. I thought they’d be something better in here.

Anyway, I could go on. At 12s I was happy to have a dart at the selection. Hopefully he races up there and can hold a position, and if he’s leading turning for home, and keeps going, he will take some stopping. His price allowed the play. It’s the best form he’s been in for some time and the ‘easiest’ chase he’s raced in for some time too. Here’s hoping he can build on that run LTO.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

NONE

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW... some stats/trends for a couple of York handicaps on Sat… HERE>>>

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YORK: Ebor Pointers: READ HERE>>> 

 

York Day 3 Starting Points 

Trainers

1.55 – Eynhallow (10/1<)

3.00 – Summer Sands

3.35 – Mabs Cross / Intense Romance

4.50 – Fanaar / Nahaarr

Jockeys

1.55 – Caradoc

2.25 – Stradivarius

3.00- Dubai Station

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Saturday York Handicaps

Ebor Handicap

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Ben Vrackie / Weekender /
  • True Self / Max Dynamite
  • Red Galileo
  • Desert Skyline

Stats ‘shortlist’ 

Given that 3 of the top 4 last year carried 9-8+ it could be this race, like many top handicaps given the prize money, is going to the classier weighted horses near the top of the weights.

Looking at my other pointers, ignoring age, points to 13 of the last 15 winners and leaves 10…

Kings Advice / Withhold / Ben Vrackie T / Baghdad / Mustajeer / True Self T/ Prince of Arran / Dramatic Queen / Raymond Tusk / Cleonte 

From that subset those drawn 14+ are 10/57, 20p in the last 15 years, and leaves 5…

Kings Advice / Ben Vrackie / Baghdad / Prince of Arran / Raymond Tusk 

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4.45 York 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Forest of Dean
  • Johnny Drama
  • Furzig / Another Touch / Society Red

Stats ‘shortlist’ 

The 15/15, 13/15 stats leave 13/96, 33p in the last 15 renewals and leave 9…

Rise Hall / Johnny Drama T / Beringer / Furzig T/ Cockalorum / Poets Dawn / Society Red T / Star Archer / Glasses Up

Irish Breds have a fine record in this, and from that list above… Johnny Drama / Cockalorum 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Joe Fanning is he the most underated jockey in history yet he only needs one winner for his 2500 winner yet over the years the media have ignored him.
    Joe has been with Mark Johnson for many years and certainly been on many job horses at the large meetings yet the Arab owners with Mark have not really given him any backing what i can remember.
    When Keith Dalgleish decided to set up in training and leaving Mark Johnson has his assistant he always put Joe on the big race hanicapers and he mostly gets the job done, come on Joe get the winner at York and receive the congratulations you deserve.
    Colin.

    1. Yep he’d probably be up there in the underrated stakes – he’s very good at settling a horse and is rarely in the wrong spot, and as punters you know what you’re going to get, as he’ll usually try and be aggressive/prominent, if he’s the horse/freedom to do so.
      I think the main arab owner – well he’s a brother to Sheik Mo i believe, so obviously links with Doyle/Buick who get plenty of rides if available, and Frankie’s being used a bit more now also. His booking looks increasingly significant for Johnston, and maybe worth following until he retires.

  2. Josh, I just realised that Smithscorner, which got touched off in the last 100 yards at Killarney tonight, was one of the horses which you put up to follow earlier this month.
    Are you tracking these? Maybe it was an omission due to your “Super” day yesterday!

    1. Hi Johnny,
      Yea I got to mid afternoon and realised I hadn’t put them up, so thought I’d just stay quiet haha. Missed them what with everything else this morning. They are in my tracker etc and I do want to flag for next 3 runs. There was another in that race also but I want him dropped in class.

  3. Enjoyed looking at York last night
    1.55 this Corelli is good and could just grind this out but dont think got loads in hand in this race. The one i do think has more to come is Mandarin and think York will suit for a late charge, just hope doesn’t leave it too late with also the possibility could want a bit further than this, but that’s the 9/1 pick. Did quite like Anything Today with course form and Speed Company, these to having a good battle with the weights SC in receipt of a decent amount today might back both ew at 25’s
    3.35 Battaash is guna get a perfect run into this race next to Ornate. Still just have the niggle that he wont win again here maybe getting caught in the last half furlong. Too many questions on Ten Sovs for me, think its drawn on the wrong side as results of last few days have been on the straight here. Also think it wants proper fast ground and dont quite know if York is that yet
    So think Mabs Cross will be the one to swoop late, receiving a bit of weight from Battaash will help

    And the 4.50 bit lazy but Dark Vision is going to win soon. Came late at Hq a few back off same mark so hoping today the long run in will allow it to get going enough to go very close. Won here last year aswel

  4. COLINS BETS
    3.25 F/L Thegreyvtrain BOG 7/2
    7.45 Chelmsford Star Of Southwold BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    4.25 Newmarket Takumi BOG 5/1
    7.05 Goodwood Blame It On Sally BOG 9/4
    8.45 Chelmsford Dreamboat Dave BOG 12/1
    Colin

  5. Lambourn
    nothing so far have to be at a friends shop for a couple of hours from 10.30 whilst he is out delivering for his only staff is a 17 year old girl and would like me there.
    Ed Walkers runner in the 1.55 York Caradoc will give it a swerve, never ran in such a competitive field, also going up 2f in distance and carrying a penalty.
    Doinging pretty well with the ones that i have given the swerve so far! famous last words.
    Will give an up date by 1pm.
    Colin

    1. From a Lambourn analysis perspective I am including:

      Ed Walker – 4.25 Nkt, Ginistrelli each way; 1.55 York, Caradoc each way.

      William Muir – 3.25 FL Lorna Cole win; 4.50 York, Hold Still each way.

  6. Morning,

    Well again I have to side with Josh, but, will have to dutch the favourite in also.
    19:25 Killarney
    BALLYOISIN 2pt win 3/1 gen
    Like Josh says he oozes class and unfortunately i cannot see anything apart from VL maybe upsetting him here, it`s a bit like Mike Tyson when he fought Bruno, for those of us old enough to remember, or, Lewis Hamilton in the British Grand Prix, he is the class animal and I have him at Evens, so, 3/1 is value here for me the only other one to stand out was VL and i`ll get onto him in a minute. I would expect DOK to push them round here and his 5lbs off will make all the difference if he does falter VL and Rachel Blackmore could capitalise.
    VALSEUR LIDO 1pt win 12/1 gen
    It may come down to a war of attrition and maybe that welter weight will be Ballys undoing, the one to capitalise here could be RB and HDBhead, they have formed a formidable partnership and she is riding better than ever, really wanting to make her mark on racing in general, (the piece she did in the Irish times shows you her character and mentality). I fully expect her to be Ireland`s equivalent of our Bryony Frost and she has come to the fore a lot quicker than Bryony, but, she is a damn good jockey and can ride a finish as well as dictate, (just like Bryony, would hate to see the two of them fighting out a finish….), HDBhead is also picking up a bit now and this one can go close if the favourite falters. I had VL in around 7/1, so 11/12`s is value.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Yep well done Stewart, your class top of market eyes working well there. I can’t believe how easy he did that despite running with choke out whole way. That’s a classy classy horse. Val ran OK but was outpaced I think, plodded into 4th

  7. York day 3, £87-40 in pot down £12-60.
    1-55. Epaulement 14-1, Western Duke 28-1 both £2 ew
    3-00. Iffraaz 22-1 £2 ew
    3-35. Copper Knight 50-1 £1 ew
    4-15. Western Hero 20-1, African Swift 33-1 both £1 ew
    4-50. Spirit Warning 20-1 £1 ew
    small stakes today save the rest for tomorrow.

  8. Lambourn
    Jamie Osbourne
    2.15 F/L Protagonist BOG 9/2
    Richard Hughes
    2.50 F/L Sunsprite BOG 10/1

    Will have another look after lunch
    Colin

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