Free Daily Post: 21/08/19 (complete)

Really Super

Video preview below… I won’t be as bullish as last time! 🙂 In truth this looks a tight little contest, with the Henderson and Hobbs horses having progressive profiles, albeit both have the odd question given how they ran LTO and the subsequent breaks. In any case, Super has the ability to win it and is bouncing at home. She was quiet after Uttox LTO and wasn’t herself, albeit she clearly needs to jump much better. I think she should have won the last twice. Hopefully returning here will help, and I’ll hope that Jack gets after her early, and she hits the front at some stage! 

*

Below is a tip from my members’ club… in recent months i’ve decided to focus all my tipping energies on handicap chases… the 2m7f+ races have always ticked along and i’m on a good run with those at the moment. The below ‘test’ is my attempt to broaden my ‘specialism’ into all handicap chases, those over shorter than 2m7f. The early signs are promising, but a long way today. Below is my fancy from Worcester…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/6,4p, +11.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

5.30 Worc – King Alfonso – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 

that’s all, as of 08.33, write up…

On the strength of recent chase form this horse should be fav and at least 1 point shorter for me. He’s seemingly in the form of his life, is racing with zest, travels and jumps well, and knows his way around here. He may appreciated the stronger pace here today also, that he can just sit off. He bolted up two starts back, and then ran even better LTO. He may well have won there had his saddle not slipped and his jockey lost an iron, riding with one leg after the last, seemingly trying to just stay on. It may not have mattered but in any case he was beaten by an in-form 134 horse there, with a gap back to the other two – and those two arrived in form also. He just looks solid, if running his race.

Attest may well bolt up if the good Dr has worked his magic but he isn’t overpriced to do so in my view (he could prove me very wrong!), on only his second chase start. He’s well handicapped and no shock winner, but I want to take him on. I think the selection, on recent form, is just better than Spring Steel, Candy Burg and Dandirdge – the latter keeps running his races but hasn’t won for ages and is a bit of a monkey when under pressure/having to fight. He could take this but I wouldn’t want to dive in at 5s. Atlantic Storm is usually held up last, so not really for me here over this CD. Little Pop has seemingly lost his way, but should tow them along for a time.

So, an interesting little contest, but if the selection repeats his run LTO- he doesn’t need to better it imo – he’s the one to beat. He is 10, but I don’t like any of those with younger legs, at the prices.

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Golf tips – I am busy with work on York day one at present and then I have some family issues to sort and so I will post up golf tips later this afternoon, when I get a chance to finish my analysis for this week. last week we won our match bet easily for 4.75 points. However we lost 6 points on Patrick Reed and Jason Kokrak and Gavin Green, who all were well placed after their first rounds but did not push on for the places. We also lost 2 points on our Sunday morning bet on Eric Van Rooyen, who plodded around in par in his final round.

    martin colwell 21/08/19 9:58 AM Reply


  • Golf Tips – Scandinavian Masters – Gothenborg, short course, water and trees and so target golf. I like the in form Andrea Pavan at 16/1 with Betfair, 1 point each way 7 places 1/5 odds the place. In form of late and beginning to get the hang of the main tour.

    USPGA Fed Ex challenge finale at Eastlake (a tough course and so it will be hard to make up too many shots on the handicap) – you can bet on the handicap scores based upon points gained to date or on the scores over the four rounds as normal. You can get the relevant prices on Oddschecker via the change market function.
    I am going to have a go at the handicap betting (you can see the starting handicaps on the USPGA website) markets firstly. I am going with Patrick Reed, who is starting 4 shots back from Justin Thomas, again. He won two weeks ago and played well enough last week with the exception of one round. I am going one point each way at 18/1 with Skybet, 4 places, 1/5 odds the place.
    On the Matchbook tournament match bets, that are scored on the scores over the four rounds as opposed to the handicap scores, I am going with two bets. Snedeker to beat Fleetwood at 2.23 for 4 points and Matsuyama to beat DJ (Dustin Johnson) at 2.02 for 3 points.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 21/08/19 3:28 PM Reply


Post A Reply