Members Daily Post: 22/08/19 (complete:09.13)

test tip x1, Nick’s tips x4, Section 1 (complete), test zone, York Day 2

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Chepstow

2.15 –

Red Romance (all Hc’s) w1 H1 11/2 

Daryana (all Hc’s) ES+ 20/1 S3A

2.50 – Another Boy (all Hc’s) w1 ES+ H3 5/1 S3A

4.30 –

Constraint (all Hc’s) 15/8 

Crindle Carr (micro class) G1 18/1 S6  UP

 

York

4.50 –

Chaleur (all Hc’s) G3 10/1 

Whitefountainfairy (all Hc’s) 8/1 

 

Leicester……….None

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JUMPS

Stratford

2.40 – More Bucks (all Hc’s,HcCh) 22/1 S2A UP

3.50 – Cruising Bye (all Hc’s,HcCh) H3 I1 12/1 

 

Fontwell

5.50 – Sizing Tara (m TJC) 11/4 

7.20 – Code Of Law (m runs) w2 I3 11/2 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/86, 30p +45.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/8,5p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

2.40 Strat – Pink Eyed Pedro – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd, 9/2… no complaints there, and beaten by a more progressive horse… I was happy to take him on at morning odds in this big field as his jumping was scrappy LTO but maybe that was the pace of the race, and he preferred this longer trip/better rhythm  – very good ride, as it was on mine. A good sign for ‘twister season’ which is looming… a brave effort from PEP who prob over-raced a tad, but no excuses, beaten by the better handicapped horse, the front two some way clear. That’s solid form, and Pink Eyed should have another chase in him on that evidence, and the winner will get 3m+ I suspect. 

I thought this in-form chaser (well he was when last seen 35 days ago) was overpriced here given his profile. He’s arguably still unexposed over fences and two starts back he won comfortably enough at Ffos Las. His hurdle run LTO (and ‘on the figures’) suggests he could be up to this class, and at the price i’ll pay to find out if he’s still ahead of the handicapper or not. He’s a prolific point winner who generally jumps well and will run on the pace. They may try and lead if nothing goes on but in theory he should be in a ‘no excuses’ position. With any luck he’ll be the one to pass turning for home. I thought he looked solid here, in a race where plenty have questions and some of those above him in the market are usually held up nearer last than first. 

I can’t understand the money (22s>8s) for Midnight Maestro at all, unless JP needs to pay for his summer holiday and the CP will suddenly transform him! But he is lightly raced. I don’t really like much else albeit I can see the case for Meldrum Lad and he could rate as the main danger. He is usually patiently ridden but that didn’t stop him here LTO, and some of his rules form from 2017 would suggest this mark may be no issue at all. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

1.00 Strat – Kiruna Peak – 1.5 point WIN – 6/1 (bet365/BV) 11/2 (gen) UP

1.55 York – Precious Moments – 1 point EW – 10/1 (Lad/BV/Coral) UP

2.40 Strat – El Terremoto – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) UP

6.00 Leic – Insania – 1 point EW – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen)  WON 14/1>4/1 (10p R4) 12.6/1, +15.12 

that’s all from Nick, x4, as of 08.11

1/4, 1p, +9.62 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

E Lavelle Autumn 

5.50 F – Shiroccan Roll (14/1<) 

A Dunn 

7.20 Font – Diligent 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

5.50 F – Shiroccan Roll (14/1<) 

5.00 Strat – Gennady 

3.15 Strat – The Lincoln Lawyer 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.50 Strat – Cruising Bye (9/1< best) 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

YORK: Ebor Pointers: READ HERE>>> 

 

York Day 2 Starting Points 

Trainers

1.55 – Wejdan / Moon of Love 

2.25 – St Ives / National League / Spygate 

4.15 – Naqaawa / Frankellina 

4.50 – Mubtasimah 

Jockeys 

2.25 – Piece of Paradise 

3.00 – Via Serendipity 

4.15 – Shambolic 

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Really Super… well we did think she had a performance like that in her, so pleasing to see her do it. It wasn’t a great race in truth, as it turned out. The market leaders didn’t run their race, as was possible given their profiles. Bally is a 3m chaser aged 11, and McCains is rated 112. But, she couldn’t have done it any easier. Interestingly the time was 6 seconds quicker than her win here last September, over 12 yards further, same ground I think, and of course she was easing down. It was obvious to us she’d improved over the winter but that would appear to back that up. In any case she’s going the right way and exciting times ahead. She needs time between races so won’t be out quickly I doubt. And she will go chasing sooner rather than later, just a decision whether to keep her to hurdles for next run or two, given that performance. Jack was very good pre race describing what he planned to do – he must have watched my video, ahem! 🙂 He’d clearly learnt from last two rides, albeit she didn’t help him and was a different horse in herself yesterday – you could tell that pre race and how she travelled, and jumped. He was aware she doesn’t posses a turn of foot as such and he’d need to send her on early, esp if a slow pace. Anyway, job done, onwards. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

    1. thanks both, and those who posted yesterday… I mean we all knew she had a run like that in her, and that was game over fairly early once the jumping warmed up and you could see how she was travelling. It was a poor bunch mind- the top 2 in market clearly have issues and haven’t run their race, maybe McCains has ran up to its mark of 112 or so.
      But, an eased down 14L was rather good fun to watch! We have a decision now, as she needs to see a fence sooner rather than later but we shall see if there’s one more hurdle run in her, a tempting race at Cheltenham in Oct!

        1. Well it wasn’t too crazy haha, but good fun! I doubt it, maybe if that Mares chase is still planned for 2020. Need stacks in hand for a Festival handicap, and in reality this is only summer C3 form, weak enough. Fences could be the making of her, and the Mares division is weak enough, with plenty of good prize money. She’ll be a great jumper touch wood, and what with her prominent style- well, who knows. Amy’s always said she’d be good enough for a listed mares chase no problem at all. She’s there to run and win, there won’t be any great plots I doubt. Just whether we take in one of those good hncp hurdles in Oct, one at Chelt for example.

  1. I’ve allowed myself £100 seperate from betting banks for a bit of fun at York meeting, £18 down yesterday £82 left in pot.
    York day 2.
    1-55. Under the Stars 9-2 £4 win money back if 2nd, Nasaiym 16-1 £2 ew.
    2-25. Raahy 9-1 £2 ew
    3-00. Vale of Kent 10-1, What’s the Story 12-1, Via Serendipity 20-1 all £2 ew
    3-35. no bet
    4-15. Naqaawa 20-1 £2 ew
    4-50. Agincourt 12-1, Warning Fire 20-1 and got to do Lyzbeth 10-1 as wife’s name is Lizbeth all £2 ew

  2. COLINS BETS
    4.30 Chepstow Norab BOG 9/2
    6.30 Leicester Pinnata BOG 3/1
    8.00 Leicester Lucky Beggar BOG 13/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.00 York Kynren BOG 9/2
    5.50 Fontwell Gateway To Europe BOG 3/1
    Colin

  3. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    2 runners today and will give them a swerve, some will fancy Blackheath in the 3.00 with Hanigan in the plate, going up a furlong and not guarenteed to stay and will need a career best to win this!
    Willie Muir
    1 runner in the 1.45 Chepstow again will give So Claire a swerve, backed her last time but with her record so far a lot to prove on the course Muir thinks a lot of her with his views in the past, it is okay doing it on the gallops she as to show more at the course.
    Update later
    Colin.

  4. Josh, just a quick thank you for yesterday
    2 winners 4 places & at good prices, way forward might be not to think about it too much!!
    Anyone thinking of going to Carlisle should try it – good course, all amenities looks like they’ve spent some money on it
    Decent night out too
    Thanks again

    1. Good stuff Harry, glad you backed them both and saw Colin had one of them also. A 4 point profit I think if backing all 1 point win at prices I put up but sounds like May have backed some EW. One more would have been nice but alas, but won’t complain. Glad you had fun. Id take averaging 2 winners every time I went racing!

  5. I am happy to wade in with josh today, having looked again and again at the said race I can see only two, but, for purposes of fairness will record mine, my write up was going to be the same… honest…
    14:40 Stratford
    PINK EYED PEDRO 1pt win 8/1 gen
    MELDRUM LAD 1pt win 4/1 gen (blimey it was 5/1 when i started writing this).

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  6. Oh forgot to say didn`t SUPER do Super….brilliant ride and she looks one to be on form now on, the others couldn`t even keep up, she really loves Worcester and being kept up to her work, brilliant ride from Mr Quinlan, whom, i feel doesn`t always get the plaudits he deserves…

    1. Oh he’s very good, articulate and reflects. He knows he could have done better the last twice but had learnt from that and made clear to us all pre race he’d make plenty of use of her if he felt pace was slow etc, and pleasing he unleashed her turning in really. I don’t think we should get overly excited by the form but she should
      win plenty more races for us, which is exciting.
      Hes especially good over fences, as his stats back up, from memory. Solid SR/AE etc.

  7. My Nap of the day is in the 4.50 York, Clon Coulis, 1 point each way at 16/1 4 places , you can get 5 places at 14/1.

    From a Lambourn perspective I am including:

    Charlie Hills – 1.55 York, Flippa The Strippa each way; 2.15 Chp, Elena each way.

    Ed Walker – 3.00 York, Blackheath each way; 4.50 York, Molls Memory each way.

    Good luck.

  8. Lambourn update
    Charles Hills
    2.25 York Fleeting Prince BOG 7/1 Hills says should run a big race and being backed.
    3.00 York Wafy BOG 14/1 His form has improved since his gelding operation ouch and we are expecting another solid effort.
    Flipper The Stripper in the 1.55 will give this one a swerve for back up in grade and trying a new trip, also on the drift, hope it runs well for Martin and anyone who as backed it, remember i only back win only.

    Hughes and Osbourne not put their views up yet going out for a couple of hours so will have a look later.
    Osbourne good to see him have a winner yesterday after being on the cold list lets hope this is the start of a purple patch for him and us.
    Colin.

  9. Proper good watch that race with your horse yest Josh, can only imagine the buzz you got off that!!!
    Was unsure how the race was going for the first half in terms of speed but its mad how much of a difference intentions of jock making sure you were up near the front can have on the horse, obvs not going to breeze every finish like that but surely more good days to come still.

    My York picks not up to much yest. These 5F sprints are probly guna drive me barmy
    And Infrastrucure in the 4.15 probly wants to go up in trip again!!!!

    Today only one in the 3pm
    Whats the Story. Hoping can cone back to its run here in May where won well. Ran at Ascott then poss bit unlucky last out, nothing else really sprung out and no other races looked like bothering with for me today

    1. Yep it was a buzz for sure – nice being in a position where up the straight the dangers are in front of you haha – she travelled much better than her last two starts – tanked, but in control, and bar first and 2 out, pinged the jumps. Maybe she was just off-colour LTO but Jack knows he should have sent her for home sooner but made up for it here. He said they were trapping along at a decent gallop down second half of back second time, so he was happy to wait until turned for home, but then he didn’t mess around. She helped him more this time mind as she was just travelling so well. She’ll win a few more, just a case of at what level and how high she may go – exciting as we are not at the bottom of her yet.

      Well done with Whats The Story, top picking.

  10. Yes well done Josh on a great win for Super. Also a well done to Nick on his pick in the 6 pm Leicester. Great ride by the jockey. Normal service resumed.

  11. Welcome back, Nick. I missed the 16s this morning but more than happy with 14/1.
    Another nice winner for Colin’s Elite as well.
    Well done, gents!

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