Members Daily Post: 21/08/19 (complete: 09.34)

Carl ‘through the card’. Test tip x1, Nick’s tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates, Really Super, York,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Bath

1.45 – Amberine (3yo+,micro distance) ES+  G3 9/1 S3A

2.50 –

Livvys Dream (all Hc’s) H3 I1 G1 10/1 S1 S4 S6 

Greeley (m age) w1 w2 H1 10/3 

3.25 –

Glory Fighter (all Hc’s) 16/1

Secretfact (3yo+,m dist) ES+ 10/1 S3A

4.40 – Silverturnstogold (4yo+,m age) I1

 

Carlisle

3.45 – Bossipop (m age) 8/1

4.25 –

Royal Flag (all Hc’s) 14/1

Beechwood Jade (m class and age) 14 w2 H3 I3 13/2 

4.55 –

Ghayyar (m age) H3 I1 G1 13/2 S1 S4 S6 

Parole (m TJC and -class) 16/1

Iconic Code (m age) I3 4/1 

Home Before Dusk (m age) 20/1

5.55 – Bollin Ted (m age) G1 16/1 S6 

 

York

1.55 –

Dakota Gold (3yo+) w1 w2 H1 11/2 

Camacho Chief (3yo+) w2 18/1 

Stone Of Destiny (all Hc’s) w1 H3 12/1 

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JUMPS

Worcester

5.30 – Candy Burg (HcCh,m runs) 5/1

6.00 – Thats A Given (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ H3 I1 5/2 S3A# 

7.00 – Shanksforamillion (HcH) 9/1

8.00 – Leaving Home (m runs) 28/1

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/86, 30p +45.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/6,4p, +11.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

5.30 Worc – King Alfonso – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 

that’s all, as of 08.33, write up…

On the strength of recent chase form this horse should be fav and at least 1 point shorter for me. He’s seemingly in the form of his life, is racing with zest, travels and jumps well, and knows his way around here. He may appreciated the stronger pace here today also, that he can just sit off. He bolted up two starts back, and then ran even better LTO. He may well have won there had his saddle not slipped and his jockey lost an iron, riding with one leg after the last, seemingly trying to just stay on. It may not have mattered but in any case he was beaten by an in-form 134 horse there, with a gap back to the other two – and those two arrived in form also. He just looks solid, if running his race.

Attest may well bolt up if the good Dr has worked his magic but he isn’t overpriced to do so, on only his second chase start. He’s well handicapped and no shock winner, but I want to take him on. I think the selection, on recent form, is just better than Spring Steel, Candy Burg and Dandirdge – the latter keeps running his races but hasn’t won for ages and is a bit of a monkey when under pressure/having to fight. He could take this but I wouldn’t want to dive in at 5s. Atlantic Storm is usually held up last, so not really for me here over this CD. Little Pop has seemingly lost his way, but should tow them along for a time.

So, an interesting little contest, but if the selection repeats his run LTO- he doesn’t need to better it imo – he’s the one to beat. He is 10, but I don’t like any of those with younger legs, at the prices.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

1.55 York – Final Venture – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen, 1/5,5p) 

that’s all from Nick, as of 08.10.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

5.00 Worc – Grand Coureur

Jockeys/chasers (9/1< best)

5.30 Worc – Candy Burg

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

PLEASE NOTE…

Thursday’s posts will follow at some point… i’m off to Worcester on a day trip to watch Really Super in the 6pm. I’ll have my lap top with me and i’ll get the post done at some point, poss on the train back, between 8-9 ish. I think the Birm>Liv train has Wifi!

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Micro Monday : READ HERE>>>

Tracker Tuesday: READ HERE>>>

YORK: Ebor Pointers: READ HERE>>> 

(‘qualifiers’ below)

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Really Super

Video preview below… I won’t be as bullish as last time! 🙂 In truth this looks a tight little contest, with the Henderson and Hobbs horses having progressive profiles, albeit both have the odd question given how they ran LTO and the subsequent breaks. In any case, Super has the ability to win it and is bouncing at home. She was quiet after Uttox LTO and wasn’t herself, albeit she clearly needs to jump much better. I think she should have won the last twice. Hopefully returning here will help, and I’ll hope that Jack gets after her early, and she hits the front at some stage! 

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York Day 1 

(as per stats report above)

Trainers

1.55 – Dakota Gold

2.25 – Ethic

3.00- Jalmould (10/1<)

4.50 – Oti Ma Boati

Jockeys

1.55 – Final Venture

2.25 – Cobra Eye

3.00 – Logician

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Carlisle ‘through the card’ 

2.05 – Debs Delight – 7/1

2.35 – Alix James – 6/4

3.10 – Kolossus – 5/1

3.45 – Music Society – 3/1

4.25 – Contrebasse – 6/1

4.55- Firewater – 7/1

5.25 – Meccas Gift – 8/1

5.55 – Frightened Rabit – 11/2

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Day 1 York.
    1-55. the 3 mentioned in Section 1 all would seem to have good chances but i do have a couple of niggles about Dakota Gold the drop back in trip and the drying ground so my preference from those 3 would be Stone Of Destiny. At the bottom of the weights Lord Riddiford could have a shout drawn dead center and has young Cieren Fallon on claiming 5 who had a winner yesterday. Final Venture has been running well without getting his head in front and with WH paying 5 places my final 3 are:
    Stone Of Destiny, Final Venture and Lord Ridderford all 1/2 pt ew.
    2-25. not really my type of race so just a couple of small ew’s on Ethic and Cobra Eye.
    3-00. no bet
    3-35. looks to be between the top 2 in the market but i like Japan and is just big enough for a 1/2 pt ew punt.
    4-15 Carnwennen and Blakeney Point look most appealing to me both 1/2 pt ew
    4-50. i do like Oti Ma Boati but Homespin looks better value.

  2. Josh,

    I looked at Really Super’s race for longer than I probably should last night, when trying to find my members’ daily selections and I decided not to play because the Henderson horse wasn’t really put into a race last time out and as such, the form isn’t clear.

    That said, I’d expect it to be between the two of them and if RS drifts much further out than 7/2 then I’d have to have a few quid on it from a value perspective.

    Main hope is that you have a good day out and the horse comes home safe and sound.

    Chris

    1. cheers Chris – it’s a tight little contest – if it gets tactical and they are bunched 2/3 out, she won’t be winning as suspect other big two have more toe – and it will be criminal if we let that scenario happen again- but she has to jump better than LTO- I think the Hobbs horse is more interesting than Henderson’s – the break for both suggests odd niggle, esp the latter- he can hang to his left and doesn’t look the easiest, but was consistent before LTO- but 59 days off suggests there was a problem, that they may well have sorted. I don’t know if his mark of 126 is lenient or not as his novice form is mediocre enough, but of course he’s unexposed. Should be more to come at some point. Hobbs’ can pull/over-race also, so we shall see. She can win it, and is better than 121 in my mind, in the right conditions, but has to prove it. They may all fall in a hole and McCain’s picks up the pieces!

  3. My sel for York
    1.55 Jabbarockie/ Camacho Chief
    2.25 Cobra Eye/ Ethic/Persuasion
    3.00 Logican
    3.35 Crystal Ocean/ Japan
    4.15 Charles Kingsley
    4.50 Pop Dancer

    Mike

  4. COLINS BETS
    1.55 York Dakota Gold BOG 6/1
    3.25 Bath The Daley Express BOG 7/2
    4.40 Bath Cuttin Edge BOG 11/4
    3.45 Carlisle Music Society BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.50 Bath El Picador BOG 13/2
    4.25 Carlisle Grenadier Guard BOG 7/2
    5.25 Carlisle Juniors Fantasy BOG 8/1
    7.00 Worcester Royal Beekeeper BOG 28/1
    Colin

  5. Josh, thanks for the selections here’s hoping!! Got the S6’s & Colin’s to go at as well, feeling strangely confident!!
    Weatherspoons breakfast & 2 lattes consumed & I’m ready for a good day
    Thanks again appreciate it
    Harry

    1. Good stuff Harry, yes hopefully between that little lot a few winners.. I did take a ‘think less’ approach, so don’t go mad on mine haha. But always some logic. Have fun.

  6. I got back on Paddy Power last week and used it for a bet on U.S. horse racing and then: Hi Martin,

    Here at Paddy Power we offer lots of promotions and concessions to our customers, like Money Back Specials, Best Price Guaranteed and free bets to name a few.

    However, our trading department review accounts regularly and we’re sorry to say that we can no longer offer you such promotions, from here on. But you can still bet on our Sportsbook or any of our other products.

    We don’t take these decisions lightly and it’s important that you know this in line with our Terms and Conditions, “Paddy Power may, at it’s sole discretion and without any requirement to give reasons, exclude any customer from the Services generally or from receiving selected promotions (e.g. guaranteed best price; bonuses; free bets; enhanced prices; and money-back specials) and any other promotions and offers introduced by us from time to time”.

    Also, this decision will not affect any Sportsbook free bet or promotions that you have already placed a qualifying bet towards. And you will still receive the benefits of any Sportsbook promotion you have started qualifying for or already qualified for prior to this decision.

    We’re sorry for any inconvenience caused.

    Thanks,
    Paddy Power

    WHEN THE FUN STOPS STOP

  7. Lambourn
    Wille Muir
    4.40 Bath Cuttin Edge BOG 5/2
    EdWalker
    2 runners today and will pass them both over today
    Jamie Osbourne
    quite sweet on his in the first at Kempton but is taking on an Hannons winner which is odds on so will give this one a miss
    Charles Hills
    not put his views up yet and he has a runner in the first at York which i have backed before, sure he will be on shortly for he has a few runners today.
    Will be an update later
    Colin

    1. I am going to include for William Muir in the 4.40 Bath, Cuttin Edge win only.

      For Ed Walker am I am including 7.15 Kempton, He’s Amazing each way and 8.45 Kempton, Stormbomber win only.

  8. My Nap of the day is in the 4.15 York, Carnwennan, 1.5 points each way at 13/2, 5 places with Sky Bet.

    Good luck.

  9. Really struggled for time these last few weeks. Missed a few of Josh’s winners
    But had a bit of time to look through York
    -1.50 Gone with Fool for you with the money back as cash 2nd 3rd or 4th. Beat Copper Knight 2 races back and then lst run at Ascott looked like died a little at the finish. Hope still got a bit of improvement to come
    -not interested in 2yr old race at 2.25
    – feel like dont know the 3yr olds well enough in the 3pm to have a bet.

    Think Crystal Ocean is levels above these in the Juddmonte. Although Frankie on the Gosden horse does he have to do that??
    Bit of a worry cus he’d know better than any1 else how to get Crystal Ocean in trouble
    – then the 4.15 i think Infrastructure will be bang there stepping up an extra 2F after improving at the finish LTO

  10. Hi, I was wondering if anyone has ever done any work on horses that go into the stalls last in sprint handicaps? I noticed Dakota gold who has just won went in last. Is it even possible to get stats on it? I understand that trainers can request going in last but can only do so a set number of times per season so maybe just the big sprints are worth looking at? Call me mad if you like and obviously not much time to get a bet on as we are not told the information prior. Any thoughts? Cheers

    1. I’m not sure there’s any way of researching that nor of finding out pre race, in suffient time, which horse will be going in last.
      I forget how they even load them… Race card order odd numbers first possibly, I’ve no idea in truth. I suspect there are plenty of fractious horses who perform best when going in stalls late but again I don’t know how you’d find that out. I can’t think it would be a suffient edge anyway personally.

      1. Josh is correct re how you would know but you could bet in running on last in.

        I think that someone did a study on this once but I cannot find it now. I think that it said that it was not an advantage to go in last.

        What about trying to bet in running when a horse misses the jump from the stalls? I doubt if the exchanges would allow it but some of the bookies are a bit sleepy??

  11. Really really really Super Josh!!!! And Amy bags another with the Accountant!!! Counting that Super cash 🙂

  12. WHOOOOOOOOSH!
    That’s what we wanted, ridden handily, dictate the pace, course and distance winner X2. Easy!!!!

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