Members Daily Post: 19/08/19 (complete: 09.19)

Main Chase Tip x1 (+ write up), Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Catterick

3.00 – Spirit Of Zebedee (3yo+,micro’s dist and class) H3 I3 G1 7/1 S4 S6  3rd

4.00 –

Radjash (3yo+) H3  7/2 

Chaplin Bay (m age) w1 H1 I3 7/1 S6  WON 7/1>11/1, 14.4 BFSP

4.30 –

Bee Machine (3yo+) w1 H3 6/1 

Chickenfortea (all Hc’s) 10/1 

 

Windsor

8.00 – Tammooz (all Hc’s) 14,30 H3 I3 2/1 

 

JUMPS

Bangor

6.40 –

See The Sea (HcH,m runs) w1 w2 H3 I1 11/4 

So Lonely (m TJC) w2 H3 I3 2/1 

The Herds Garden (HcH,m runs) 18/1 S2A

7.10 – Delgany Demon (m TJC) 11/4 

7.40 –

Handy Hollow (HcH,m runs) I1 10/1 

Montys Angel (m TJC) w2 H3 2/1 

Craig Star (HcH) 16/1 S2A

8.10 –

Midnight Aurora (m TJC) H3 I1 7/1 

Artichoke Heart (HcH,m runs) H3 15/2 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 17/85, 29p +38.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases)

7.10 Bangor – MARBLE MOON – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365) 9/2 (gen) 

that’s all for this race, as of 08.53, write up at bottom of post…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/6,4p, +11.3)

None, the 6.10 isn’t a race I wish to dive into, a bit too much chase guesswork with moderate horses

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainer to Follow 

7.40 B – Murphys Law (11/1< guide) 

8.10 B – Mrs Davies (11/1< guide) 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

6.10 B – Lord De La Mine 

7.10 B – Day of Roses 

Jockeys/Chasers 

7.10 B – Atomic Rumble (9/1< best) 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

7.10 write up…

Marble Moon... he looks to be the overpriced one here to my eyes – why he isn’t 3s/joint fav in this race i’m not 100% sure but maybe i’ll find out soon enough… I tipped him two starts back at Newton A where on another day he’d have won, esp if Adam had got after him a tad sooner than he did. The horse is still unexposed over fences with youth on his side, unlike a few in here. LTO he ran at Ffos Las, a track that I don’t think suits him as well as these speedier course, but he ran with credit. His jumping was generally sound having just watched it back, and it was a much better race than this. Dr Robin dictated a slow pace there but he’d win on his next start and the second was rated 122. Fingerontheswitch was just in front and he arrived in form. So, I think it’s solid form, and he was bang there to 2 out, where he may have been tapped for toe, or just outclassed. I thought his opening price of 3s/11/4 or so was short enough that day, given the questions and his jumping at the track previously. With any luck he gets it all together again today. 

Backing hold up chasers isn’t something to do too regularly but as per my last 3m tip/winner, which was over this CD, it does favour chasers more patiently ridden. This horse does posses some tactical speed, relatively speaking, albeit i’d like connection to ride him further forward. If he makes errors/UR at these fences, then he’s clearly a chaser not to trust, but I think he will be fine. IF he runs his race, he will be bang there agains these, and with any luck will be leading over the last. If he hits the front at any point after the 2nd last, that should be game over. 

Of the rest…

well Atomic Rumble is the other unexposed handicap chaser in this but 3s didn’t seem overpriced. His jumping has been iffy and he’s twice jumped out to his right at Southwell. He does also have stamina to prove. He could win this well, and he will do in a chase when transferring his best hurdle form, but not for me today at 3s. 

I’m not sure how Delgany Demon was put in at 3s – well I am, it’s the Skelton factor. If he hacks up, which he’s handicapped to do if/when they find the key, then so be it. He can beat me at 3s. The CP may do the trick, but he could get tapped for toe around here, as he did at Worcester. The ground should dry out all day, and should be no excuses ground for them all, unless they want a road. It’s fine for him, but too many questions for this regressive 11 year old. 

Packettotherafters... I won’t be shocked if he won but he’s the same price as my selection, who’s more unexposed/better days ahead. If mine capsizes though, this one could take the spoils. I can see the case and he likes it here, inc winning this race two years ago. I can only assume he will be sharp enough after the wind op, but it was a poor race LTO and he is a mid 90s chase. The selection could be a low/mid 120s animal but he does have to show it. This could also happen too quick for him. I thought his price was about right, but he’s a danger and is lightly raced for his age- which with chasers could be seen as a negative as much as a pos. 

Silver Man is 12 but arrives in form. But I just can’t have him, if I can make a case for an unexposed one, I will. It would be good to see him back in the winners’ enclosure but he can beat me at 6s. He’s not the force he was. 

If any of the others beat me, so be it, I wasn’t finding them today. 

If the selection can hold a position, jump, and runs his race – well I think he’s the one to beat. And he should be 1.5-2 points shorter imo. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    3.00 Catterick Mr Greenlight BOG 7/2
    4.45 Lingfield Prince Rock BOG 4/1
    6.40 Bangor Solstalla BOG 13/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.45 Lingfield Manorah BOG 11/4
    7.00 Windsor Black Lotus BOG 4/1
    8.00 Windsor King Of The Sand BOG 7/1
    8.00 Windsor Tammooz BOG 5/2
    Colin

  2. Martin
    Well done on putting your American bets on the free post for there does not seem to be any interactive on there, for quite a while.
    Have been thinking of putting a new method on their to see if can attract any response on there again if successful can transfer it to the members page and they would have to subscribe to RTP to continue, but that is down to Josh.
    Colin.

    1. I think that it may be best to test there as members and others can view and we can gauge interest. There was some interest in 2018 when I ran something similar for a couple of months. I can bring it back for members only if there is interest.

      There are some big swings in odds with some of these bets. They do drop and there must be some late piling on going on over there to drop them so much. What also happens is that, on oddschecker, some bookies drop the prices later than others. There was one instance last week where most bookies had dropped a certain horse to 2/1 or 9/4 and Paddy Power kept it at 11/2 until right before the off and then cut it to 2/1. perhaps someone was asleep over in Ireland? It did win and has an SP of 15/8.

  3. What a team RTP is !!!! S6’s doing well over the past couple of days, Josh having a marbleous (lol) winner today and Colin pulling the dough, luvly jubly:-)

    1. Great call again, Josh, being more selective is certainly paying dividends for you (and us).
      Nice drift as well!

      1. Meant to add, another big price winner for S6 and Colin’s Elite chipped in with Black Lotus at 4/1. A good day for Team RTP.

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