Members Daily Post: 17/08/19 (complete 08.56)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Doncaster

1.10 –

Mostahel (micro age)

Poets Pride (m age) I3

In The Cove (all Hc’s)

Evie Speed (all Hc’s)

2.50 –

Motafaawit (all Hc’s) I3

Rum Runner (all Hc’s) w1  10/1 

Breanski (all Hc’s) w2 H3 I1 G1 16/1 S1 S4 S6 

3.25 –

Orvar (m age) I3 

War Whisper (m age) H3 G3

 

Newmarket

4.30 – Oydis (all Hc’s) w1 w2 H3 I3 6/4 

 

Ripon

2.05 –

Hyperfocus (m runs)

Pipers Note (m dist)

Marks Choice (m dist) G1 16/1 S6 

Shepherds Purse (m dist)

3.15 –

Staxton (m runs) I3

Reputation (m dist and age)

Poyle Vinnie (m dist) w1 H3 G1 20/1 S6

3.50 – Appointed (m class) H3 G3

4.25 –

Hortzadar (m dist) H3

Lamloom (m dist) G3

Storm Ahead (m runs) I3

 

Bath

6.20 – Singing The Blues (m age) H3 G3

7.50 –

Sweet Pursuit (m runs) 

Madrinho (4yo+) H3 I3

Titus Secret (m dist) ES+  14/1 S3A

 

Newbury………..None

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JUMPS

Perth

2.30 – Holy Motivation (m runs and +class) H3 I3

3.40 – Nayati (all Hc’s) ES+ H1 I1 5/2 S3A#

 

Market Rasen

6.30 – Our Uncle Pat (m runs)

7.30 – Sleepy Haven (m class) H3

8.00 – Compatriot (HcH) I1

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 17/85, 29p +38.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases)

None, a quiet day on the official tipping front today. Nothing worth attacking, the weather has ruined the Perth chases somewhat.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/6,4p, +11.3)

None, as above, a few class 5s or weak handicap novice chases I don’t wish to play in. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.05 P – Amalfi Doug (11/1< guide) 

4.15 P – Uptown Funk (11/1< guide) 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Big Race Trends Thursday

READ HERE>>>

 

2.05 Ripon : Great St Wilfrid Consolation 

Trainers (to have won race/runners) T

  • Growl / Paddy Power / Brian The Snail / Lucky Lucky Man
  • Yousini
  • Airglow

Stats Shortlist 

Helpful to a point… looking at aged 4-6, 6f LTO, 1-3 handicap wins, leaves 6/35, 12p, +32 in the last 7 runnings… that leaves…

Alaadel / Royal Prospect / Dalton / Brian The Snail T/ Lucky Lucky Man T / Airglow T / Hyperfocus 

Those drawn 5-12 (the ‘middle’) don’t have a great record in this, but there could be nothing to that. From the list above Royal Prospect and Hyperfocus are drawn in that section.

 

3.15 Ripon: Great St Wilfrid Stakes

Trainers (to have won race/runners) T

  • Summerghand / Gulliver / Muscika / Intisaab
  • Lake Volta
  • Venturous / Gun Metal
  • Great Prospector / George Bowen
  • Staxton / Vintage Brut

Stats Shortlist 

This isn’t overly helpful, the stats i’ve used leave 12/123, 33p in the last 15 renewals, leaving a longlist of 10…

Gulliver T/ Lahore / Richenza / Lake Volta T/ Citron Major / Venturous T/ Gunmetal T/ Belated Breath / Great Prospector T / Staxton T

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. ITV races. had a quick look at the racing on telly and won’t be having a bet at Newbury but the two at Ripon and one at Newmarket are good betting heats but very open.
    Newbury.(for itv7)
    1-50. Thunderous
    2-25. Durston
    3-00. Love Dreams
    3-35. Safe Voyage
    Ripon. in order of preference
    2-05.Marks Choice, Flying Pursuit, Pipers Note
    3-15. Lahore, Staxton, Ice Age
    not on ITV
    3-50. Lady Alavesa
    4-25. Ayutthaya
    4-55. Potenza
    Newmarket.
    2-45. Revolutionise, small interest on Buccaneers Vault just in case he ever comes back to form.

  2. COLINS BETS
    2.45 Newmarket Lucky Beggar BOG 20/1
    2.50 Doncaster Presidential BOG 6/1
    3.15 Ripon Lancelot Du Lac BOG 33/1
    3.50 Ripon Appointed BOG 7/1
    6.50 Bath Merweb BOG 4/1
    7.50 Bath Secret Potion BOG 11/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.25 Doncaster Rounday Park BOG 6/1
    6.20 Bath Singing The Blues BOG 3/1
    7.20 Bath Queen’s Soldier BOG 2/1
    7.00 M/R Dark Invader BOG 13/2
    Colin.

  3. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    2.45 Newmarket Came From The Dark BOG 10/1
    3.00 Newbury George William BOG 11/4
    Charles Hills
    3.25 Newmarket Miss Villanelle BOG 13/2
    4.00 Doncaster Tabassor BOG 5/2
    Thats it for today
    Colin

    1. For my Lambourn analysis I will also be including 7.20 Salisbury, Max Guevara, each way.

      My Nap if the day is 2.05 Ripon, Flying Pursuit, 1 point each way, 8/1 now.

      My next best is 1.15 Newbury, Sashenka, 1 point each way, 14/1 now.

      Best of luck.

  4. Following on from yesterday’s comment from Josh about the difference between BOG and no BOG, I make Elite Bets 98.92pts profit using early prices without BOG. So around 30pts extra for BOG. Not insignificant over 8.5 months.

    The optimum range I have found for Elite Bets is 11/4 to 10/1 and the profits for that are 134.07pts BOG and 106.57 No BOG.

    Well done Colin. Keep up the good work. As Josh said it’s all positives.

    1. It would be interesting to know how many punters actually can get BOG now? I bet not that big a percentage? We will probably never know. The only way I can get is heading off into town to visit those dens of vice, the betting shops.

      Also it would be interesting to see what BOG or enhanced offers there are on a Saturday compared to the rest of the week and how much better they are?

      1. i still have 4 accounts with bog WH,B365,BV and Sky i do try to use them if placing bets early, there does not seem to be any rhyme or reason with restrictions Coral restricted me and i hadn’t won a penny, restricted a/c include PP,Ladbrokes,betway, boyle,bfsb, etc etc.

    2. Hi Ken
      would not have thought that 30 points would be a difference for not many drift and when taking BOG price it will be around the best price available when placing the bet.
      Again must be at least 2 bookmakers showing the price what i claim, so on many occasions could well be a stand alone bookmaker is showing an higher price than what i claim, so an individual can have better returns than what i claim.
      Colin

      1. Colin, I record the prices you put up then the SP, so it’s based on the better of those two prices. Sometimes you get 3 or 4 points difference in the odds, so it doesn’t take that many to mount up to 30pts.

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