Members Daily Post: 15/08/19 (complete)

Bev ‘through the card’ + notes, Section 1 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Beverley

5.05 – Make On Madam (micro -class)  12/1 

 

Salisbury……….None

 

Chepstow

5.00 – Doune Castle (all Hc’s) 8/1 

5.35 – Sweetest Smile (all Hc’s) ES+

6.40 – Rebecke (all Hc’s) 13/2 

7.45 – Smokey Lane (m age) G3 8/1 

 

Yarmouth

6.25 –

Balladeer (all Hc’s,3yo+) H3 G1 8/1 S6 

Alhaazm (all Hc’s) I3 11/4 

7.30 –

Garth Rocket (all Hc’s) G3 14/1 

Bidding War (m dist) I3 14/1 

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 17/85, 29p +38.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases)

None. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/6,4p, +11.3)

None.

Re-cap… a good day for the test with Shoal Bay bolting up at 6.3/1>4/1 after the R4. He was the most interesting in the race, and has travelled like a dream with the blinkers back on. He’s clearly got better with experience, and the drop in trip was ideal. It was also good placement in a weaker race than his last two. Bar the winner I don’t really wish to take anything else from the race, they are a moderate/inconsistent bunch.

Anyway, a long way to go, but my ‘chase’ eyes are doing just fine now… since 22nd Feb when I refocused the daily tips, and since when dumping any illusions of playing on the Flat with ‘best of’ etc, they are now on +62.6 points from 76 bets (76 points). (inc the test). In theory there is no reason why the test tips (chases under 2m7f) shouldn’t do well, but it’s still early days. I’m not sure that ROI is sustainable but i’ll keep chipping away. It should only get busier from now on really, so we will see what impact that has on the P/L come the end of December.

If counting the ‘test’ pile, at long last that puts my own tipping efforts in section 2 into profit for the year. Nothing to shout about there, but a good mental boost and i’ll be working hard as always to add to the coffers before the year is out.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Big Race Trends Thursday

READ HERE>>>

 

Beverley ‘through the card’ 

2.00 – Say It Simple – 11/2 2nd 

2.30 – Doncaster Rosa – 11/2 UP

3.00 – Siyahamba – 11/4 UP

3.30 – Suwaan – 11/2 UP

4.00 – Echo – 11/2 (may or may not give fav something to think about!) UP

4.30 – Dreamseller 7/1 UP/ Abies Hollow 8/1 UP

5.05 – Luna Magic – 5/2 WON 5/2>6/4 

5.40 – Graceful Act – 8/1 UP

Well i’ve had better ‘through the card’ attempts, i’ve had worse mind.

 

I’ve dusted off my flat eyes so we shall see how the above get on…

Say It Simple… Fahey + Hanagan + Bev + 5f + 2 YO = 8/26, 19p, +16 in recent years, which is solid enough. I wasn’t sure those with experience set a great standard, but the market may guide for this one. I wouldn’t want to be wading in at 13/8 on the fav personally, but of course she’ll bolt up now. Each-Way may be the play, as I suspect she’s ready.

Doncaster Rosa… ah a nursery handicap… easy! This one has run as if he’s crying out for at least 7f and it could be the making of him- the good to soft won’t be an issue for him (although it should keep drying through the day) and he should race prominently. He may also come on for that last start and Jason H rode him on his debut here, when just beaten. He’s doing something different, whereas the top 2 in the market are not really (bar handicap debut of course), but no distance moves, and they have high draws to overcome.

Siyahamba… as 11/4 favs go in selling handicaps, I thought he was solid! I think he’s the only horse to have won a race in this line up, which tells you plenty. That win was 16 days ago over CD. That win may transform him, he’s well drawn, will track the pace and be in the right spot, and is the one to beat. ‘Through the cards’ – which I do for those going racing, are not all about ‘value’ in my view- this is a one off trip to the races, and when we all go racing we do want to back the odd winner – so I never have a problem with what could be called a ‘shorty’.

Suwaan… he may be another for the Each-Way category given his win record but he’s been consistent lately, likes it here and from this draw I wonder if they will be more aggressive. He’s raced prominently, led, and been held up in his races. Some bookies are paying 4 places and if he runs his race (not always a given) i’d be surprised if it wasn’t money back at worst. I did think it was between him, Sheepscar L and Guardia S.

Echo… well you couldn’t take on the 1/2 fav here with much confidence. He’s unexposed, has the weight allowance, and is going the right way. He should be winning I think as the rest have many questions. However if he doesn’t for whatever reason, Echo may be the one to side with for track-side change. He’s a distance winner, the yard are in great form and he will appreciate this step back up in trip. He may track Jukebox Jive, pass him on the turn for home, and the fav may have to then get by him. Or, the fav hacks up hard held! 🙂 But it could be a tactical affair, falsely run, and strange things can happen in that scenario.

Dreamseller… well, one of those races to throw darts and hope for the best. Many in here don’t like winning that often. This one has a horrid draw to overcome – well both in here are not drawn the best – but he can get out and race prominently and the first 2f may decide his fate. He runs as if this extra 1.5f may bring about some improvement – that’s the hope anyway. His his last race has produced two subsequent winners, inc the horse in front of him.

Abie’s Hollow.. he does just look solid, and it’s whether he can repeat/build on that run LTO which was decent enough. Again his fate may be decided early, and whether he can get out, across , get handy and not be stuck wide. Conditions look ideal for him, and he should go close, if he starts well.

Luna Magic… another ‘shorty’ here but he does look solid… a front runner (the only proper pace horse in this from what I can see) drawn in one, who stays further. He could get loose on the front here, he’s consistent, knows how to win, and will be the one to pass turning for home. I wasn’t sure what would be passing him, so he’ll do for me at 5/2. Is that overpriced? Probably not. Is he the most likely winner, yes, to my eyes. Is he the sort you should be backing consistently long term at the odds, in this race type? No. 🙂

Graceful Act… i’m anti backing 11 year olds in my race type of choice- handicap chases – but here I am putting one up in a flat race. He may be another for the Each-Way brigade but I saw no reason why he wouldn’t run his race here. His win LTO was his first in a long time, but that may transform him, as it can do for many horses. He will be close up, and may even try to lead, given he stays further. If he can hold a position in the front 3, he should keep on galloping. Maybe he will get outpaced but I couldn’t work out what to take him on with. Bollin Ted is solid, but is on a career high mark and is open to attack from something with more in hand. I suppose you could just focus on the best jockeys, which is arguably Miss S Brotherton (John Caesar) and Simon Walker (Straight Ash) but in reality it’s not a race to go mad on, and if you’re not off to the races, probably one to leave!

Best of luck, and if you’re attacking Beverley, hopefully those musings may help. These ‘through the cards’ can often go one of two ways – 2/3/4 winners and a profitable day (or escaping even), or a complete blank! You have been warned 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. I’m off to Beverley tomorrow so any thoughts/tips would be appreciated especially for the first two races for 2yo’s.

    1. I mean I prob don’t have anything better to do early morning so can cast my chase eyes over the card haha. Wel my flat eyes occasionally work ok.

    2. Some notes above Martin, to do with as you please! Looks a fascinating card with potential for a good day, so with any luck you land on the odd winner. Have fun.

      1. luna magic was my biggest bet of the day got the 5-2 so most of my losses back in the wallet, ended up about £40 down but met some nice people and had a good laugh, all round a cracking day out it even stayed dry.

  2. COLINS BETS
    4.40 Lingfield De Little Engine BOG 4/1
    4.45 Yarmouth Monarch Maid BOG 8/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.30 Beverley Northern Lyte BOG 11/2
    5.05 Beverley Luna Magic BOG 5/2
    5.00 Chepstow Ascot Day BOG 10/1
    Colin

  3. Lambourn
    Charles Hills
    2.10 Lingfield Red Bravo BOG 6/1 drop in class
    7.10 Chepstow Motagally BOG 7/2 in good form at home and hopeful of him breaking his maiden
    Willie Muir
    5.55 Yarmouth Hammy End BOG 8/1 finished 3rd last time and later they found a corn with a blood blister underneath, so may have cost them that race, so sounds they could win today
    Will be back later waiting for 3 trainers views.
    Colin.

  4. Ed Walker had two good placed runners yesterday at 14/1 and 25/1, as per my post, for Lambourn yesterday. He had a very good July but until yesterday was a bit down in August. So he may be coming back into form a bit?

    Today he has semi positive shouts for:
    4.20 Salisbury, My lady Claire each way; 5.55 Yarmouth, Verify win and 6.25 Yarmouth, Beguiling Charm each way.

    It is mid month today and so we can see where we are tomorrow with the relevant trainers.

    Good luck.

  5. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    6.25 Yarmouth Beguiling Charm BOG 8/1 Won last time seeing out the extra 2f well and proven that she stays, so for me a progresive 3yo
    His other two runners are not for me
    Verify going up an extra 2f so not proven will stay and at 2/1 way to short for the risk
    My Lady Claire trainers quote needs to improve today on previous efforts, also unsure how she will handle todays ground too many negatives for me.
    JAMIE OSBOURNE just come on and Juke Box Jive could win against the Bell runner he his hopeful but not a strong case so not for me
    Hughes doubt he will be on so thats it today.
    Colin

  6. Hi Josh
    I don’t do Twitter but have just seen top right that you are going to the Pardubicka, you will love it -something different – nearly 2 years since I went!! You’ll love Prague as well, we’ve just booked to go for the Christmas markets
    Harry

    1. Hi Harry, cheers… blimey was that nearly two years ago, I can remember you requesting some dodgy tips haha. I’m going with a good group – well guy who knows his Czech racing better than I do, and he has shares in a few horses over there, inc a trip on the Monday to his trainer’s yard etc. Ice hockey on the Tuesday I think. First weekend of our jumps season proper, so trusty lap top will be with me as always and won’t notice any difference – they’ll be a few handicap chases for me to ponder over a morning coffee.
      I’m looking forward to it.
      Josh

      1. Yep, 2 years ago, scary!! (doing Hexham & Newcastle first wek of Oct this year). To be fair your man did ok for me (a couple of winners) and I had the winner in the big one – can’t say it was down to any major form reading – there was one GB bred horse in the race – and thought I’ll have that one. Might work again you never know?
        You’ve definitely got to do the Ice Hockey we watched Sparta Prague – top night – train stops directly outside the stadium (just like Aintree) couldn’t be easier!!
        I’m a tad jealous – but in a nice way – it was such a good trip

    1. Thanks Aaron, it will be nice to go there for something other than a Stag haha.
      Oh, thankfully i’m with people who know more than I do – some fun darts no doubt!! I’ll need plenty of luck! I’ll be trying to crack the odd chase at Chepstow in the meantime.
      Josh

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