Members Daily Post: 14/08/19 (complete:08.57)

Test Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Beverley

3.30 –

Stonific (all Hc’s) w2 I3 20/1 

Regal Mirage (3yo+) w1 ES+H3 I3 G3 6/1 S3A# S4 

Invasion Day (all Hc’s,micro TJC) 3/1 

4.00 – Langholm (m class) w2 I1 9/2 

 

Salisbury……….None

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JUMPS

Newton Abbot

4.10 – Empreinte Reconce (m class) H3  10/3 

4.40 – Barton Rose (all Hc’s) 10/1 

 

Worcester

4.55 – Alf N Dor (HcCh,m class) w2  8/1 

6.00 – Bumble Bay (HcH,m runs)  22/1 

6.30 –

Hot Ryan (m age) H3 7/1 

Superefficient (m dist)  11/4 

Lapalala (all Hc’s) ES+ 11/2 S3A

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 17/85, 29p +38.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases)

None. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/6,4p, +11.3)

(reminder… i’m ‘testing’ myself in live play in handicap chases shorter than 2m7f in the hope I can become as good at these as I have been long term in the the 2m7f+ chases) 

4.55 Worc -SHOAL BAY – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365) 7/1 (gen) WON 7/1>4/1, 10p R4, 6.3/1>4/1 

Always enjoyable when they do that…and when you’re confident they will go close very early on- he travelled like a dream back in blinkers, tanked his way around but didn’t over-race. The odd hairy jump, but that’s him, built into the price imo. That does look his trip and they were a mediocre bunch, and in general it is the unexposed/younger legs, but with some experience, that it’s good to try and make a case for. Always useful to be reminded of that. A superb ride, and he won’t be 7s NTO. 

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that’s all for today, 08.49, write up…

What the going will be come this race is a bit of a mystery but i’ve assumed around good to soft. They haven’t been watering and could get 10-15mm through the day. They’d usually put at least 5mm on a day to maintain Good summer jumps ground I think, so I would hope it doesn’t turn into a bog. In any case this one shouldn’t mind some cut, whereas it would pose some questions for a few in here.

The selection is the most interesting horse in the race in the sense he’s the least exposed over fences. He should be winning a summer handicap chase based on the level of his form the last twice, esp two runs ago. They were decent enough races for the time of year and i’m not sure he’s fully stayed 2m7f, plodding on one pace from 2 out. They drop him in trip here and the blinkers return. They may try being more aggressive given the drop in trip/headgear, but we shall see. He generally tracks the pace, if quick enough to hold a position. Ben Godfrey gets a go and he’s been riding ok. The horse could improve in the jumping department – he looks safe, and doesn’t clatter them, just goes out to his left a tad still. But in the context of this race I thought he was worth a go at 7s and that could be a shade overpriced.

I had various niggles over the others in the context of price and have stuck with the one that should produce more from this mark at some point. If he doesn’t do as I hope, it does become very open and you can make some sort of case for plenty, esp as the rain may dent some of them.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

None.

A message from Nick as per comment in yesterday’s post…

Hi guys. Just thought I would post. Work for the past few months has been mental to the point I have been totally drained and its dawned on me that putting an extra three hours of “work” really wasn’t helping and letting me unwind. Combine that with the fact I am struggling to actually enjoy horse racing at all has made it seem more and more like a chore and given I simply need to relax has meant I haven’t been looking. At the end of the day this is my hobby and it hasn’t really felt like a lot of fun. Combine that with the fact that just about everyone in my portfolio is performing badly has made it a struggle to even put bets on recently. So my lack of bets hasn’t got a massive amount to do with how I have done from my own tips. Obviously if I was flying like last year it would be different. So long story short is I will be back doing this full time at some point but for me to do that I need to regain my passion for the sport which may actually mean having a longer break although as everyone knows this game is all about the long term, so if I am away for a month or two it shouldn’t make too much of a difference. At the moment I am taking it on a week by week basis.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

E Lavelle ‘Autumn’ 

(2014>: 131 bets / 31 wins / 54p / 24% sr / +70 SP / +85 BFSP / AE 1.26)

6.30 Worc – Prophets Prayer (14/1<)

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

6.30 W – Prophets Prayer (14/1<)

Jockeys/Chasers

4.55 W – Alf N Dor (9/1< best)

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NEW: Chase Angles 2019/20 

C Tizzard

4.55 W – Shoal Bay (14/1< guide)

LTO Winners Starting Points  (12/1<)

4.55 W – Danboru

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Micro Monday…

A new post HERE>>> (and in the Monday Micro tab/it’s permanent home)

A look at Michael Scudamore and his handicap chasers. There’s a video of me poking around in HorseRaceBase (only 14 minutes!!) and a pace profile using Geegeez Query tool. Shock horror, the hold up chasers struggle, to a point.

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. All the best Nick, hope to see you back soon fella, I myself have been hit and miss, may take a long hard look at my summer “go to” races, did really well with the racing in Ireland, but, over here I was trying to find selections in what I would class as drivel races, not enough class 3 and above jumps races with a substantial amount of runners and my flat selections were always way off the mark…It is a long term game and I can see the jumps season on the horizon, so, light at the end of my tunnel. Always learning in this game, always learning…..

  2. COLINS BETS
    4.20 Salisbury Steeve BOG 4/1
    5.25 Salisbury The Groove BOG 11/2
    7.40 Kempton Universal Effect BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.20 Salisbury Fabulist BOG 3/1
    4.40 N/A Skinflint BOG 3/1
    4.55 Worcester Robin Des People BOG 6/1
    Colin

  3. Lambourn
    Charles Hills
    2.50 Salisbury Rewaayat BOG 15/2 dropping back in trip and he says more than capable of winning.
    William Muir
    6.40 Kempton Diligent Deb BOG 8/1 did not go to plan yesterday today last two runs in group company so a drop in class today.

    Osbourne, Hughes and Walker not put their views up, so will put anything later.
    Colin

    1. glad to hear that about Rewaayat backed it last night @ 10-1, thought it was interesting dropping back to minimum trip for the first time, Crowley on board and has been backed into 11-2 this morning. here’s hoping.

      1. Salisbury is a stiff 5 furlong more like 5 1/2 furrlong with the uphill finish, my mate Dai had a horse called Quite Victory 5f was to short and 6f was to far, i did suggest running her at Pontefract with their stiff uphill finish which she managed a win and was sold to Linda Siddell who also struggled to get a win out of her.
        The draw is my only concern drawn 9 from 11 and a low draw is favoured, but at the price worth the risk we shall see!
        Colin

          1. The ground for the first 3 races gd/soft did not go to soft and the races dominated by the low draw.
            1.50 1, 5, 2 6f
            2.20 3, 10, 2 6f
            2.50 2, 7, 3 5f with 4 N/R these were the new stall positions, so Rewaayat stall position became stall 5 out of the 7 runners.
            Whatever it lost!
            Colin

  4. I’m off to Beverley tomorrow so any thoughts/tips would be appreciated especially for the first two races for 2yo’s.

  5. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    7.10 Kempton Midas Girl BOG 10/1 still improving and another step forward would see her get her head in front tonight, thats the trainers view and will do for me.
    Thats all for today
    Colin

  6. From a Lambourn perspective and each way bets, Ed Walker was somewhat positive re Midas Girl, 7.10 KP amd Brigham Young, 8.10 KP. So I will be including these in my analysis of the trainer.

    My Nap of the day is…..4.20 Salisbury, Wojood at 16/1 Bet365, 1point each way.

    Good luck.

    1. cheers, bar one jump 3 out or so that was a very enjoyable watch. I’m having a lie down as if I include the test (which is cheeky to a point), the section 2 ‘tipping portfolio’ has just crept into profit for the year! It’s taken a little longer than hoped for mind.

      And I think that now puts all daily chase tips (inc test) onto +62.6 points from 70 bets since 22nd Feb when trying to refocus. I think it’s clear where my focus should be from now on anyway! 🙂

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