Members Results Update: Sept

daily tipping, ‘advised’ strategies + other results updates

Part 1 

Spreadsheet

You can find a spreadsheet summary of results HERE>>>

The ‘stats pack summary’ tab may be most useful, detailing results against various strategies and test micros etc. 

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Tipping: My Daily Chase Tips (main) 

For July: 7 bets / 1 win / 1 place (inc wins) / +8 (advised) / +8.77 BFSP (after 5% commission)

I want to focus on my tipping from 22nd Feb, which is when, after various tipping anguish and mentally being all over the place, I decided to just focus my daily efforts on what i’ve historically been good at – staying chases, 2m7f+, C4+ .

Since the 22nd Feb those Daily Chase Tips: Main are…

70 bets / 16 wins / 26 wins|places / 23% win SR/  +51.3 (advised/bog) / +41.04 BFSP (after 5% commission) / 73% ROI 

I’ll be trying my best to maintain that performance in the main Daily Chase Tips, while endeavouring to improve in handicap chases over shorter, within the relatively new Daily Tips ‘Test’. If I can maintain a 37% win/place strike rate for the main tips, and try to repeat it in chases over shorter, those totals will only go one way in time.

The Test Tips…

They haven’t had much action since I started dabbling on the 14th July but are currently… 5 bets /1  win / 3 w|p / +5 (advised/bog)

As the jumps season proper gets going it should get busier, as i’ll have a few races each day to get stuck into. My main focus will always be the main tips (‘staying’ chases) but there are plenty of good Saturday chases over shorter i’ll attack and there’s no excuse for not developing my skills in that area as many of core ingredients are the same.

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Advised Strategies

The year has yet to get going for Flat S6, Jumps S3A# or Jumps S1 (which is on a summer holiday)

2019 to date….

Jumps S1: 79 bets / 7 wins / 13 w|p / -6.15 (8am prices/bog)

Jumps S3A# : 62 bets / 14 wins / 31 w|p / +1.325 (8am prices/bog)

Flat S6: 77 bets / 8 wins / 19 w|p / -0.75 (8am prices/bog)

I’m hoping they’ll all have a spurt at some point before the year is out, including a couple of monsters which always make a difference. The overall win/place SR of around 29% is in line with historical averages I think, but just a case of the odd placed horse winning. If it’s still 29% come year end, with any luck that portfolio will be in profit, however it doesn’t look like being as good as last year sadly.

Selected others…

Flat S4 is having a good year to date, as per the spreadsheet above… 64 bets / 15 wins / 30p / +19.825 (8am prices/bog)

As is Jumps S3A: 235 bets / 42 wins / 79 w|p / +39.565

If anything, useful ‘ways in’. I prefer jumps S3A# which is an extension of S3A, mainly as there are fewer bets and last year the former made similar profits but at a much much bigger ROI. But as always you can do as you please with the info above.

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Links from Welcome Post to Strategy Running Totals to End July

  1. Advised Strategies: READ HERE>>>
  2. Other Ideas (possible starting points): READ HERE>>>
  3. On the scrapheap (those ideas not worth pursuing) : READ HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Hi Josh

    What would be the figures for S3A# if you took out the summer jumps figures.
    I must admit I like to keep flat as flat 1st May to end of Oct. Jumps 1st Nov to end of April. Summer jumps 1st May to end of sept.
    I imagine if you mix them up especially the jumps winter with summer. There are winter horses and summer ones keeping the figures separate would make for more clarity??
    Just my opinion but would be interesting to see if there was a difference.

    Regards

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike,

      Valid question… in my head it doesn’t make too much logic, given the ES+ is based on the track stats for said trainer, those with 10+ winners, min 25% win SR in the study period… no reason why they shouldn’t do as well over the summer, esp for those summer only tracks- but a few points to ponder… not least the Geegeez Speed ratings are not available for summer jumps, so that could impact on May-Sept – and maybe that’s something I need to look at – but in theory it shouldn’t make a difference- and I research the track stats based on calendar year rather than the different seasons as such – although the 5 summer only jumps tracks are obv just that. If a trainer likes a certain track just a case of them sending right horse at right time of year – and there’s not too many meetings over the summer from ‘winter’ tracks, if that makes sense.

      If I look at the Elite Squad (S3A) (so not the #, which is ES+, plus 2 or more ratings), they are +18.39 so far for May/June/July.
      S3A# are on around -7. 12 places from 19 qualifiers, inc wins, so with any luck a few more should start winning.
      The behaviour of the trainers, rather than the horses, is more important with those – and the ratings pointers, and how they are devised, should be consistent through the year.

      Some just like taking the summer off anyway, but as yet i’m not sure there’s a logical reason for separating, but only way for me to do it is just look at results in the two time blocks you highlight. And as per the spreadsheet you can see the month breakdown for them.

      Best
      Josh

  2. Hi Josh
    I take your point of there not being much difference based on your ES and ES+.

    Thanks for your reply and taking note of my query. I thought from the P/L it might make a difference.

    Cheers

    Mike

  3. Hi Josh
    I take your point of there not being much difference based on your ES and ES+.

    Thanks for your reply and taking note of my query. I thought from the P/L it might make a difference.

    Cheers

    Mike

  4. Hi Josh

    What would be the figures for S3A# if you took out the summer jumps figures.
    I must admit I like to keep flat as flat 1st May to end of Oct. Jumps 1st Nov to end of April. Summer jumps 1st May to end of sept.
    I imagine if you mix them up especially the jumps winter with summer. There are winter horses and summer ones keeping the figures separate would make for more clarity??
    Just my opinion but would be interesting to see if there was a difference.

    Regards

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike,

      Valid question… in my head it doesn’t make too much logic, given the ES+ is based on the track stats for said trainer, those with 10+ winners, min 25% win SR in the study period… no reason why they shouldn’t do as well over the summer, esp for those summer only tracks- but a few points to ponder… not least the Geegeez Speed ratings are not available for summer jumps, so that could impact on May-Sept – and maybe that’s something I need to look at – but in theory it shouldn’t make a difference- and I research the track stats based on calendar year rather than the different seasons as such – although the 5 summer only jumps tracks are obv just that. If a trainer likes a certain track just a case of them sending right horse at right time of year – and there’s not too many meetings over the summer from ‘winter’ tracks, if that makes sense.

      If I look at the Elite Squad (S3A) (so not the #, which is ES+, plus 2 or more ratings), they are +18.39 so far for May/June/July.
      S3A# are on around -7. 12 places from 19 qualifiers, inc wins, so with any luck a few more should start winning.
      The behaviour of the trainers, rather than the horses, is more important with those – and the ratings pointers, and how they are devised, should be consistent through the year.

      Some just like taking the summer off anyway, but as yet i’m not sure there’s a logical reason for separating, but only way for me to do it is just look at results in the two time blocks you highlight. And as per the spreadsheet you can see the month breakdown for them.

      Best
      Josh

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