Micro Monday: More chase angles>>>

MICRO MONDAY >>>

I’ve had a look at a couple of angles I had saved and have ‘modified’ them slightly with my chase eyes.

There’s a general ‘LTO winners starting point’ angle which has worked well systematically – historically at least. And then there’s a couple of micros for Donald McCain.

Qualifiers will be posted in the Test Zone. I wouldn’t recommend following them systematically as such. I’ll be using them as ‘ways in’ to help with my renewed tipping focus and with any luck will help me find more winners etc.

 

YOU CAN READ THOSE HERE>>>

A summary below…

Handicap Chase System: LTO winners ‘Starting Points’

  • Handicap Chase (standard)
  • Class 1, 3 + 4
  • 0-1 Chase WINS
  • WON Last Time Out
  • Ran 1-20 days ago
  • 12/1< SP (guide, 0/8,1p above)
  • 2014>

400 bets/ 135 wins / 211 places / 34% sr / +86 SP / +117 BFSP / AE 1.12 

  • Of note.. within this angle, those with just 0-1 handicap chase RUNS are >>>
    • 231 bets / 85 wins / 126p / 37% sr / +63 SP / +81 BFSP / AE 1.17

(fully breakdown of yearly results in link above)

 

Donald McCain No.1

  • Handicap Chase (all)
  • Moving In Class, up or down
  • 2-7 runs this season
  • 14/1< SP (0/34, 0p above)
  • 2014 (up to end July 2019) >

162 bets / 34 wins / 58 places / 21% sr / +68 SP / +89 BFSP / AE 1.22

 

Donald McCain No.2

  • Handicap Chase (standard)
  • Age 5-8
  • 2+ runs this season
  • Clear Top Weight / Joint Top / Clear Second Top Weight
  • 9/1< SP (0/26, 1p bigger)
  • 2014>

96 bets / 27 wins / 43 places / 28% sr / +31 SP / +37 BFSP / AE 1.26

*

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Maybe you could add age 6 to 10 to your HCP chase system as the 4 & 5 yr olds seem to go off very short and are poor value. Interesting when this is applied it makes the class restriction more or less redundant. I would be inclined to kick out races of 4 runners or less too.

    1. Hi Chris,
      i’m happy with how it is 🙂

      It is a ‘starting points’ as a way in, for my own tipping if nothing else, and the stats are solid –
      Unless you’re planning on betting at SP/BFSP the stats for the 4/5 year olds are just fine. If my reading of the odds move stats are correct… 8 of the winners for that age group shortened 1 point or more from opening show odds (10 mins before<), and indeed a +29 point difference from those opening show to SP. I want to see any qualifiers as part of any starting point/further analysis - it's useful to know the 4/5 age group operate at a 33% SR and i'll be more inclined to take note if one pops up in any race i'm looking at, that I can then assess- and for anyone else using as starting points etc. I also wanted 30% + for that one, hence class 2 being on naughty step for now and i've no intention of diving into class 5s. Albeit if you've HRB obviously you can tinker and save as appropriate 🙂 With any luck it will be useful, cheers, Josh

      1. Personally I don’t like dodging an anomaly in the middle of a group or cluster of criteria such as class 2 in your case unless there’s a solid reason for it which I can’t see. It feels more back fitted to me.
        LTO Chase winners certainly seems to be a solid starting point. There’s probably quite a few tweaks and to be made to suit your own preferences so thanks for putting it up.

        1. Oh I fully agree in general with that point – I don’t think there’s much logic if any for why class 1 should do better than class 2, and in the sense of ignoring class 2 that is classic back-fitting – and to be avoided in any approach followed systematically . Class 1 are 3/11,5p. I mean Class 2 are not that bad, only -2 or so to SP, but i did have my ‘starting point’ eyes on with a 30% + SR etc. But C2 is prob strong enough to include as I ponder.

          No problem – yep, the key is to remove all elements maybe and build again, as when you layer and layer rules, and then dig and dig even more they can become more unstable in my view, or maybe less likely to repeat – and the fewer the rules the better with these sorts of angles imo.

    1. Hi Chris,
      i’m happy with how it is 🙂

      It is a ‘starting points’ as a way in, for my own tipping if nothing else, and the stats are solid –
      Unless you’re planning on betting at SP/BFSP the stats for the 4/5 year olds are just fine. If my reading of the odds move stats are correct… 8 of the winners for that age group shortened 1 point or more from opening show odds (10 mins before<), and indeed a +29 point difference from those opening show to SP. I want to see any qualifiers as part of any starting point/further analysis - it's useful to know the 4/5 age group operate at a 33% SR and i'll be more inclined to take note if one pops up in any race i'm looking at, that I can then assess- and for anyone else using as starting points etc. I also wanted 30% + for that one, hence class 2 being on naughty step for now and i've no intention of diving into class 5s. Albeit if you've HRB obviously you can tinker and save as appropriate 🙂 With any luck it will be useful, cheers, Josh

      1. Personally I don’t like dodging an anomaly in the middle of a group or cluster of criteria such as class 2 in your case unless there’s a solid reason for it which I can’t see. It feels more back fitted to me.
        LTO Chase winners certainly seems to be a solid starting point. There’s probably quite a few tweaks and to be made to suit your own preferences so thanks for putting it up.

  2. Maybe you could add age 6 to 10 to your HCP chase system as the 4 & 5 yr olds seem to go off very short and are poor value. Interesting when this is applied it makes the class restriction more or less redundant. I would be inclined to kick out races of 4 runners or less too.

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