Members Daily Post: 03/08/19 (complete 09.29)

Nick x7, Galway x3/all (+ write ups), Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Doncaster

5.15 – Olivia R (micro age) G3 20/1 

5.45 – Frosted Lass (m age) 7/1 

 

Goodwood

1.50 – 

Mokaatil (all Hc’s) ES+ 33/1 S3A UP

Boy In The Bar (all Hc’s) w1 ES+ 10/1 S3A UP

3.40 – Sir Maximillian (all Hc’s) ES+ 40/1 S3A UP

5.25 – Storting (3yo+) 8/1 

 

Newmarket

5.00 – Elisheba (all Hc’s) G3 9/2 

5.35 – James Park Woods (all Hc’s)  G3 2/1 

 

Thirsk

2.50 – 

Manshood (m class and age) G1 7/1 S6  UP

The Armed Man (all Hc’s) H3  6/1 

Confessional (m dist) 12/1 

3.25 – 

Hajjam (m TJC) G3 5/1 

Proud Archi (m TJC) 11/1 

4.00 – Lamloom (m TJC) 12/1 

4.35 – 

Benadalid (all Hc’s) w1 H3  6/1 UP

Top Notch Tonto (all Hc’s)  G1 20/1 S6  UP

 

Hamilton

6.50 – 

Airglow (all Hc’s) w1 H3 I3 7/1 UP

Dancing Rave (m runs) w1 H3 G3 6/1  2nd 

meeting abandoned

7.50 –

Majeste (m class) G3 15/2 

Five Helmets (m runs) w1 w2 H1 I1 2/1 S1

Flint Hill (3yo+) G3 10/1 

8.20 – 

Cliff Bay (m runs)  G3 9/2 

Transpennine Gold (3yo+)  22/1 

8.50 – 

Tagur (3yo+) 22/1 

Equidea (m runs) H3 I3 G3 5/2 S4

 

Lingfield

4.55 – Aegean Legend (m dist) 40/1 

6.05 – Arctic Flower (m dist) 20/1 

7.05 – Zamperini (m dist) H1 I1 4/1 S1 UP

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 17/85, 29p +38.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases)

None

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/5,3p,+5)

None.

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‘Jumps’ Festival Tips

Galway Day 6

(2/13,5p, +7.2)

#1 2.30 

Eclat Des Mottes – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/WH/BV)  UP… that was game over early on sadly as he pulled/was very fresh – David has tried and tried to settle him, and get him in a rhythm – and thus ended up nearer the back. Maybe he could have tried to weave through but he’s decided to try and go around – no surprise the horse didn’t have much left, his race was over before 3f out I think- he was never winning, he wasted too much energy. Hopefully they find the key with him.  The other option would have been to rush him forward early but that may have lit him up even more. 

Hearts Are Trumps – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)  NR

#2 5.20 

Share The Honour – 1 point win – 9/1 (betS/BV/PP) 8/1 (others) 2nd – solid run-  his running style was the niggle but worth a go at price I thought – he had a horror of a trip round – albeit i’m sure the winner was just in front for a long way. It may not have mattered but he’d have been a lot closer. But that’s Galway for you, esp over hurdles/on the flat. 

as of 08.39 and 08.56…  that’s all from me today for Galway/my tips, write ups to follow at bottom of post

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advises/bog)

1.50 Good – Tommy G – 1 point EW – 10/1 (dec 1/5,5p)  3rd, +1 

3.25 Thirsk – Danielsflyer – 1 point EW – 10/1 (1/5,4p gen) UP, -2 

3.40 Good

Lake Volta – 1 point EW – 11/1 (1/5, 6p gen) UP, -2 

Vanbrugh – 1 point EW – 22/1 (WH/BV) 20/1 (1/5,6p gen) UP, -2 

4.00 Thirsk – Hayadh – 1 point EW – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (gen) (1/4,4p gen) UP, -2

4.05 Donc – Everything For You- 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) 2nd , +1.5 

6.50 Ham – Joran Electrics – 1 point EW – 16/1 (SB/Lad/BV/Coral) 

 

That’s all! A busy day, 7 selections in total… as of 09.18 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway/Goodwood… i’ve created a separate post…the stats quals, trends shortlists will live there, and the link to the report is in that post also. Any tipping above as usual.

Stats post complete HERE>>>

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Write ups…

2.30 

Eclat Des Mottes…

One for Mullins here and maybe more importantly Mr Blobby himself…  I had a quick flick at the stats and the owner records in this (esp given the amount of green and gold)… Rich Ricci has had 4 runners in this race, and 3 of them have won – inc Low Sun for us last year. That’s probably not a bad ‘forever more’ race micro as it’s clearly one of the main races they target this week. The horse is in the ‘could be anything’ camp – that does include not being good enough but you’d think he will come on from his return LTO, where he was fresh but ran well. Willie and David are 4/10,6p when teaming up in the last 30 days and in a race which doesn’t have much pace (on paper) I suspect he may be aggressive here- or certainly be in a no excuses position. He’s lightly raced for his age and has clearly had problems. Maybe he just can’t stand much racing in which case he’ll fall in a whole here given the relative quick turnaround. When racing in France, he was a nose behind Elixir De Nutz who’s now with Tizzard and is rated 140 or so. Albeit that was a 3 runner race as youngsters. 

In any case, he’s worth a go at 8s+, given his trainer, owner and overall profile. 

Hearts Are Trumps…

He ran 2 days ago and horses making a quick return have a decent record in this race- JP has only won it once mind (1/17) but I thought he ‘could’ add another one – he was keen in that race which was his first start for 100 days and in most of his runs this year he’s shaped as if well worth a go over further. This may well be a couple of furlongs too far , we shall see, but this trip could have a transformative affect. His mother was an un-raced sister to Denman. I suspect in time 20f+ will be more his trip but he’s run some decent races over shorter in some good handicap hurdles. And I couldn’t help but notice he’s way ahead on his own, top rated, on the HRB ratings for this.  At 14s there was enough there to roll the dice. Maybe that effort 2 days ago will nullify him today, we shall see. 

Both of those shouldn’t mind any rain that falls – they are only expecting up to 3mm or so, and I can’t think it will be an excuse for anything today. 

5.20 

Share The Honour…

I’ve been keeping a watchful eye on the Tony Martin runners given his fine form (4/11,6p last 14 days) and that was the way in with this horse… who it turns out won this race last year! Before that win he’d run well in a better race and after it he ran well in a premier handicap at Leopardstown where he didn’t have much luck in running. He then tried hurdling where he ran ok a few times, before a PU. I assume something went amiss or he was ill. In any case he’s gone well after a similar break (in that Leop race) and you’d like to think this has been the plan. Wide draws are fine over this CD according to the stats. I’ve no idea how he got up last year, having missed the break 1/2 a stride and then losing his position at various points – but once in the clear he stormed home and just got up. He’s still lightly raced on the flat and I expect a big run. As always he’ll need some luck in running. 

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That’s all for today 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. The volume of racing keeps on coming…..plenty of races to confuse you.

    My Nap of the day is……2.30 Galway, Eclat Des Mottes, 2 points each way, 10/1. Rich Ricci after a pot to make his week.

    My next best is an improving three year old with a low weight in The Stewards Cup. Answers on a postcard please….OK then, 3.40 Goodwood, True Mason, 1 point each way at 50/1. Boom!!! For the tricast I like Ornate if he turns out again and George Bowen.

    Good luck.

  2. Managed to have a decent look last night, spent most my time on the 2.25 tho because the 1.50 and 3.40 are minefields
    2.25, very aware im following on from the impossible yesterday. Hope im not going mad but ended up landing on What a welcome and Scarlett Dragon both at 20+.
    Kings Advice raised another lump, and went back to a race here earlier in season and just beat WAW at level weights today a 9lb swing in my selections favour coupled with a very wide draw for the fav. giving a chance to ScarlettD, has ran well here in a group 3 before and mark dropped a bit now. Had a bit of a break then a run a couple of weeks back so hoping its ready to go, would like going back up to this trip will help after normally going 2M over hurdles. £5 SD win
    £5ew What a Welcome

  3. The crazy races at Goodwood
    1.50, Tommy G Nicks selection sticks out as a plan for this being a target again. Also like Secret in the Park

    3.40 this Kaadeb could be a very good horse. But dont like low draw, think il back 3 just small win bets possibly on the exchange. Kimifive good line of form with yesterdays winner Beat le Bon and i like the high draw. if Cosmic Law comes back to form looks a huge price. And Jockey booking of Dettori on Archebo sticks out.
    Good luck all

  4. COLINS BETS
    Goodwood
    1.50 Blue De Vega BOG 14/1
    1.50 Gabrial The Devil BOG 10/1
    3.40 Lake Volta BOG 11/1
    4.50 Warning Reef BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    5.00 Newmarket Clarion BOG 4/1
    5.25 Goodwood Storting BOG 8/1
    Colin

  5. Lambourn
    Charles Hills
    3.40 Goodwood Khaadem BOG 5/1 Charles Hills quote should have won last time, big chance.
    anymore bets will put up later
    Colin

      1. He was and at times trainers often think more of the horses chances than reality have checked the betting on his other runners and nothing to inspire you on that front.
        The only other one for me came close to backing was 2.25 Goodwood Bartholomeu Dias, best form on AW and was 7/1 when he put it on the board now 16/1 and 20/1 in a place, so certainly not for me if it wins good luck to him, but somehow doubt it will win! what do i know about racing! answers on a postcard.
        Colin.

        1. I am unsure as to whether the price of a horse is that much of a factor in a competitive race, such as you get with these Saturday handicaps? But each to their own. Perhaps set a criteria of maximum odds? I would not personally as the bigger priced winners are what boost your profits when they go in???
          But what do I know (tongue in cheek)!

          1. Martin
            will stick to how i read between the lines and a Charlie Hills horse who stable enjoys a punt 7/1 to 16/1 sends the alarm bells ringing for me, if it had been static fine even then its best form is on the AW.
            Yesterday Jamie Osboune had a case for 4 or 5 of his runners yesterday and my judgement proved correct in not backing any of them saving 5 points, today charlie hills could have 1 or 2 winners but not for me will stick with the one already put up.
            Colin

          2. yep, sounds wise to me Colin… the whole point of ‘trainer quotes’, esp from that site, is reading between the lines – you can’t back them all – and you have to spend the time to get a feel for what they say and how they speak (or more so, plenty of time- how the secretary or assistant trainer speaks etc – some trainers will be them, some delegated) – you have to read between the lines and then use your own analysis – and live with missed winners – there will be plenty, you just have to be content with your own progress. You have your methods of analysis, Martin has his, I have mine etc etc – anyone spending time on that site would no doubt find different methods with different results.
            If Martin does get stuck in it will be interesting how he does over time, given a different approach to analysis and it seems price at times etc.
            It would be interesting to see a difference between handicaps and non – I suspect some of those know the time of day with their maiden/novice/listed etc – they can gauge quality at home and try to place them well.
            All fun and games. A valuable resource if you use it – hopefully they don’t start charging just yet, but I think that may be longer term plan!

          3. Phew got the 2.25 right
            If they are going to charge then they will have to work on their presentation of the trainers views, and the site also claims winners when they have not indicated that they can run well, thats including a 50/1 winner not one of my 4 trainers.
            Colin

          4. A nice 16/1 missed though by not picking up on the other fancied Hills runners.

            But yes, everyone stick to their own approach, easier to understand I guess.

            I am geared up to the approach that gives the best profit.

  6. Lambourn
    Jamie Osbourne running late and he will update his evening runners later, he put up a case for Seraphinite in the 2.40 Newmarket but not for me.
    if any later bets will put up.

    Hughes not come on and Puds ran a tip for Martin they rarely win when they do not put up their views before the race is run, would imagine some owners would not want their horses chances being advertized which could have been the case for Puds who knows.
    Colin

  7. I enjoy the chat between Colin and Martin but got to say Colin does seem to be able to read between the lines and as I have said before I am very happy with his choices. One trainer today that interests me is William Muir. He puts up a good case for his horse and it will be interesting to see how it goes. Have had a small bet on this one

    1. Gordon
      see where you are coming from, Muir often does lengthy write ups, positive Martin Dwyer is back in the plate, it as only won one race from twelve and that was on the AW which was a class 4 over 5 furlongs, hope it runs well for you
      Colin

      1. More good filtering Colin, well done. Keep playing them as you do – fair to say that was certainly a group horse in a handicap and those connections with that sort a danger to all. Seems to have happened plenty this season in big handicaps, made 5s look rather good even in a race like that! I see he had an 8/1>16/1 1st 2 year old winner – I wouldn’t have been near him given his stats with that sort – was 0/29 at goodwood i think with 1st 2 year olds before him! Of course when a drifter wins, which plenty will do, you have to remember all those drifters that lose, that you’ve no doubt left alone etc.

        1. Josh
          if you have time can you look up Jim Crowley and Oisin Murphy when they are in the plate for Charles Hills all rides and then when decent price money say £8,000 plus to the winner.
          Noticed James Doyle was on the 16/1 winner at Goodwood, another top jockey for £18,000 to the winner.
          Colin

          1. yea i’ll take a dive when I have time, which isn’t this weekend. Remind me mid-week. Crowley mainly rides all those for his retained owner, of which Hills has plenty of them. Very good with the sprinters generally but i’ll have a look.

  8. Jack’s Point, William Muir 2nd so am pleased with my reading of trainer’s comments. Had a small each at 18/1 so a profit. Well worth looking at the Lambourn site and reading what Colin has to say.

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