Members Daily Post: 02/08/19 (complete)

write ups, Galway x5 (complete) ,Chase Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, review,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Goodwood

3.00 –

Mojito   (all Hc’s)  w1  7/2 

Seniority   (all Hc’s) 11/1

 

Bath

7.50 – Rose Hip   (4yo+,micro age)  w1   H1 I3 9/4 

8.20 –

Silverrica   (3yo+,m dist)  ES+ G3 10/1 S3A

Knockabout Queen   (m age) 14/1

 

Musselburgh

6.00 –

Colour Contrast   (m +class) G3 9/1 

Donnelly’s Rainbow   (m class)  w2 H3  11/2 

6.35 –

Royal Brave   (m dist)   I3 11/1 

Primo’s Comet   (m runs) I3 

8.40 –

Sarvi   (m –class) 14/1

Dizoard   (m +class) 50/1

 

Newmarket………None

 

JUMPS

Bangor

2.10 –

Black Key   (HcH) 7/2

Nefyn Bay   (HcH) 20/1 S2A

Ormesher   (HcH,m runs) 8/1

2.45 – Value At Risk   (m TJC) I3 9/2 

3.55 – Mullinavat   (HcCh) 6/1

4.30 –

Prince Khurram   (HcH,m –dist)  28/1

The Character   (HcH,m runs)  w1 H3

The Herds Garden   (HcH) 20/1 S2A

Istimraar   (m TJC)  w2   H3 I1 2/1 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 17/85, 29p +38.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 5/93,25p, -48,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

2.45 Bangor

Gone Platinum – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) WON 7/1... that went to plan. Enjoyed that pace, pottered around, jumped well, speed to close, up against a load of trees bar the fav, but has outstayed him as hoped, and maybe even out-battled. An improving 10 year old!! 🙂 I’ve never seen a jumper hold his form like this really. Hasn’t run a bad race since April, a credit to him and the team. Plenty of hold up chasers do win of course, just a case of being very selective. 

that’s all for main chase tips, as of 07.58, write up at bottom of post 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/5,3p,+5)

None. 

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‘Jumps’ Festival Tips

Galway Day 5

(2/11,4p, +9.2)

#1 6.15

Minella Beau – 1 point win – 8/1 (SB/BetS/PP) 15/2 (WH/BV) WON 8/1>4/1, 10p R4, 7.2>4/1 

Minds Made Up – 1 point win – 8/1 (SB/BetS/PP/BV)

#2 5.10 – 

Light That – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP, poor 

Grapevine – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfS/PP/BV/Boyle) 11/1 (WH)UP , poor. 

#3 6.50 – 

Legal Spin – 1 point win – 14/1 (SB/WH/BV) 12/1 (others) UP 7/1 

 

that’s all for today, 5 Galway tips in total, as of 08.55. Write ups at bottom of post

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advises/bog)

NONE on Friday.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning trainers

5.00 B – Buckeye Shan (8/1<)

Trainers to Follow

4.30 B – Goldencard

5.00 B – Luck of The Legion

Jockeys/Chasers

2.45 B – Viens Chercher

3.55 B – Starlight Court

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

3.55 B – Mullinavat

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

I owe you all some results updates for the strategies etc, and the tipping comp. This will be done asap, this week always busy and i’ve a wedding this weekend. Will all be up to speed by close of play next Tuesday latest.

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Galway/Goodwood… i’ve created a separate post…the stats quals, trends shortlists will live there, and the link to the report is in that post also. Any tipping above as usual.

ALL  HERE>>>

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Write Ups

Bangor – Gone Platninum –

On the strength of his form he’s the best horse in this race. He’s been in cracking form all year and at some stage all these runs may catch up with him- it may be today – but if he came here on the back of his form before MR LTO, he’d have been put in at 4s or so I suspect. I’m not sure he relished the softening ground there, he was never in a rhythm and it was a much hotter race than this- they went hard enough. However, from around 3 out he’d moved to within 4L of the leaders, before his efforts caught up with him. He’s a course winner and this CD actually favours hold up horses according to the Geegeez pace profile- without those positive numbers I may have left him but while he is a hold up type, that’s how he runs, and he has the speed to get there. With the claim he’s on the same mark as when doting up 3 starts back and while he’s been busy this is only his 4th chase since April. He also has stamina to prove but he shapes as if well worth a go over this trip and he wasn’t stopping at MR over 21f. He may relish this slower pace and can creep into it.

I didn’t like the three above him at the prices at all. They all have the odd question and on paper there are a few front runners. One of them may win but were not value to my eyes. The Henderson horse can hit a fence and has stamina to prove, and he’s had 50+ days off which I find odd. He was short enough, but is the right fav given he’s the most unexposed in this.

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To Galway…

I did plenty of the work for these races last night so was a case of fine tuning this morning. It is ‘moving day’ given i’m playing with all the profit and I suspect this will decide my fate this week, so fingers crossed!

5.10 –

Light That – he hits my Jessie micro for this meeting and IF he ran as he did last April at Punch in a much better handicap hurdle than this, he’d win. His win in a Novice chase after that was impressive also, given the oppo. Both of those races have worked out very well and I think a mark of 127 may prove lenient, if they ever get him back to that form. His run LTO was his first since May 2018 and he was cut up there on the flat, but plodded home. I’d like to think that was a prep for this. IF he runs his race he’s a lively outsider here.

Grapevine – that Summer Hurdle win may be the best recent piece of handicap hurdle form in this. It’s interesting Leech comes over here with him and Connor Brace keeps the ride. This one is so unexposed over hurdles, he may appreciate a stronger pace here on paper, and this climb to the line. He was doing all his best work late there. He could turn out to be one of the better horses the yard have had and English hurdle raiders do ok at this meeting. In any case I thought 12s was too big.

I’m leaving my T Mullins heroine from day 1 who at 4s is too short for me. This is a much deeper race on paper but she should run her race again. It may be good enough. He has another lurker also and such are his stats with these types, 17f<, 12/1< i may be foolish for taking both on again.

6.15 –

Minella Beau – well this must have been the plan. Not only the yard but these owners seem to target most of their horses for this week and they’ve had a few winners already. This could be another. He’s unexposed over fences, has course form, is generally a very good jumper, and will prove better than this mark at some point. Three starts back at Cork he was creeping into the race and Walsh hadn’t moved, when he came down, and was somewhat taken out mid air. I suspect that experience may have affected him thereafter but in any case those two races were much much deeper than this one. He’s gone very well after long absences before and it’s Mullins- fitness won’t be an excuse. 8s seemed big to me given his profile as he’s could decimate this lot, if on his a-game.

Mindsmadeup – he’s another unexposed one over fences and especially for his relatively new trainer who’s made a difference. He dotted up two starts back under Sean Flanagan before being outpaced LTO- his jumping wasn’t foot perfect there but SF back on may make a difference. That race turned into a dash of sorts. I think he will appreciate these conditions and will relish the lack of jumps in the long climb to the line. There’s more to come from him. The yard are in form and he has a good record here.

I didn’t like the two JOB chasers. Treasure Chest has stamina to prove and Tesseract is a bit of a monkey – no surprise to me they try CP. That may work and he ran well LTO, but I don’t like his price given my niggles.

The rest can beat me and of course one may do so. Nibbles for Mine Now who was 12s at around 8.30. He’s 11 and 0/9,1p over fences, and I’m not sure he’s in great form. I can’t touch him at those odds given those factors. However that place was in this race last year, and on that piece of form you’d have to give him a chance. So not a shock winner, but I can’t bring myself to back 11 year olds at the best of times, let alone at a Festival.

I’m pleased Riviera Sun is a non runner- given the yard and fact he won this race a few years back, he looked interesting to a point at 25s. But his recent form had been dire. But I don’t need to worry about him anymore.

I should mention Top of The Charts who’s in great form and is unexposed. He could take this. However this is much deeper than his last two wins and his jumping is very iffy. This track/pace may find him out. I could have him wrong and he is a danger if putting it all together.

Pace wise.. I hope my two may be up there. Mindsmadeup should track the pace, PT may be patient on Minella B, but we shall see. If the money is down and he’s a1, he may be more prominent, and possibly wide.

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6.50 – Legal Spin –

Mullins has won 3 of the last 4 renewals of this and did so last year with a 14s shot, ridden by Billie Lee. He’s also 8/28, 14p at this Festival with horses returning within 3-5 days of last run.

I tipped Legal Spin LTO where I thought they’d be aggressive and race up there. Alas Patrick was happy to sit on the fence, with plenty of horses in front. Game over. The horse was tanking, as was Mr Adjudicator – but had nowhere to go, got shuffled back, tried to get out but couldn’t. Over this trip they may be more aggressive – I hope so! That Curragh return was decent and if he can lead into the final 2f, he could stay there. Mullins stats over this trip at this meeting are super also, as per my stats pack. At 14s i’d be sick if he won this, so in I go.

His stablemate is a danger but short enough and Manning doesn’t have the best record here.

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So, that’s it for a busy Friday. With any luck a winner or three has been plucked out! I can hope.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Course form is always order of the day at Galway, especially on the bigger obstacles, like i said the other day, it has one of the longest and weirdest run ins on a chase course you are ever likely to see, along with Cartmel in GB. that false rail that makes all the horses turn in near enough 90 degrees is also off putting for most horses and as proven most time this week it forces horses wide, not that it`s a bad thing as i believe its better ground coming up that side of the course, but, you need something that will stay and be able to handle an uphill climb.So, onto today!
    18:15
    TOPOFTHECHARTS 9/1 sky 1pt win (8/1 gen)
    This fella can stay, he does clout the odd one, but, once on the flat he has a fighting spirit and does not want to get beat! I believe that fighting spirit will come to the fore here and he will power up the hill and fight it out with my other two.He is young enough and still learning, but, should have enough to outwit the older brigade here?
    MINE NOW 16/1 365 1pt win
    This one just missed out in the race last year, then followed up with a very close 2nd in a hurdle race at the same meeting, so, he is due a race here after going close, although he is only entered for the Chase race this time, so, they must have targeted it.He has a turn of foot and keeps battling on, so, we shall see.Value if you can get 16`s, but 14`s would be good enough in my book.
    CECIL CORBETT 40/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, this is another one of those will it / won`t it horses and I can hear Josh saying 12 yo, are you mad, well, most of the time I am and occasionally I get one right, here`s hoping with this old fella. He does need “riding” and is a moody so and so, but, Dennis O`Regan gets on with him well and has finished 4th and 1st on him before now, every race i watch with him in though makes me cringe…he needs a proper good waking up, (he made Davy Russell work on his last victory this year). Good ground he will enjoy, anything softer might be a worry, he may surprise, but, will not go down without a fight.

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

  2. COLINS BETS
    3.10 Wolverhampton Mitigator BOG 5/1
    6.00 Musselburgh Etikaal BOG 5/1
    8.20 Bath Jaganory BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    1.30 Wolverhampton Daring Guest BOG 4/1
    2.45 Bangor Value At Risk BOG 4/1
    5.50 Nemarket Swansdown BOG 2/1
    7.30 NM Jalaad BOG 7/2
    8.30 NM Lady Dancealot BOG 9/2
    Colin

  3. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    1.50 Goodwood Royal Intervention BOG 10/1 Frankie on board if handles track no doubt will run a huge race.

    If anymore will put up later.
    Colin

  4. Nap of the day is….2.25 Goodwood, Biometric, 1.5 points each way at 13/2.

    No decent bets for me today…I would be laying favourites at Goodwood I think today. See how it goes.

    System selection – Bin Suroor 2YO Maiden – 4.20 Wolves, Desert Secret, 1 point win at 10/1.

    Good luck.

  5. Had a bit of time last night to look at Goodwood but mad busy day today so not been able to get on here
    1.50, think Billesdon Brook big at 14/1 so would take that form over the short price fav after having one good run
    3pm, iv backed Beat le bon at 10/1 last night think its guna go well here decent run at track b4 and dont think this mark is guna stop him coming down the outside and going very close!! Bit of a sneak for Baltic Baron but iv chose the former over him

    1. Well your eyes working just fine with that first one Ryan, well done. Life can get in the way of posting so no worries, but good to see you put her up nonetheless. GL with the other one.

      1. Blimey, that is quite the Goodwood picking. Yes fingers crossed for a muggy double haha – but the singles will do just nicely no doubt also. You’d best treat yourself tonight! well done.

    1. cheers Nige – nice when a race goes to script! And always pleasing when the first one on a busy day goes in, profit assured for day – but would be great to add one or two more!!

    1. ha, I am trying. I’m in a good place with the 3m chasers – +39 points or so from 85 outlay (albeit a chunk of those were on all sorts), +55 or so since 22nd Feb since more focus – need to build on it but the ROI since doing so is very good at moment. I’ll try and maintain it – would be good to get through +50 and kick on, but you have times when you’ll go up and down on the spot etc. One more at Galway and it will have been a good day. And I can dream of 2.

  6. Great reading of the race with Gone Platinum, Josh, well done. That pays for my subs for the next 3 months!
    Congratulations to Ryan also with his Goodwood picks (although I didn’t see them in time) and musn’t forget Colin with Daring Guest winning at 15/2 for the Elite Bets!

      1. thanks Johnny, i’d have taken those two winning before the day started so happy with that, well you should be happy with any +11 haul! Onwards, much climbing still to do but in a much better spot now.

  7. Hi Josh, I’m extremely pleased for you that you bagged your tip today. Not really just for today but pleased that you have reverted your attention to what you are best at. It definitely went wobbly when you tried to venture away from specialising your chasing and it did make me wonder at times! All the best going forward with your chasers and festival analysis. Specialism is the way forward.

    1. thanks Chris… well I look back and do wonder what I was doing! I’m in a much happier spot now – I just enjoy looking at chases, and I know what i’m talking about most of the time and can read them well – you get to know the horses, connections, the formlines etc and can picture recent races. You have more factors to play with also I think, to help solve the puzzle.
      So, the tipping course is set… the stayers, the test over shorter which i’m determined to get right but not at expense of the former, and the big four Festivals, which is the only time from now on I will delve into non chase races.

  8. Well done again Josh great tipping. With the combined tips of a few in here we could have had that acca I dream of!

  9. Good day at the office today Josh, well done. As people have said above, the renewed focus seems to have restored the Josh we all know. Chapeau

    1. thanks Jamie, yep it’s going well again, but much climbing to do…albeit if I include the chase Test tips for some creative accountancy, the overall tipping pile is back down to 0 ! It will be a poor year on the Festival front whatever happens last two days at Galway but that’s the game in those races. i’ll try hard to turn the chase sections into a 100+ a year aspect, I do just enjoy studying a chase and want to attack them. And there’s only so much tipping capacity, mentally, when you’re doing everything else also etc.
      Anyway, the foundations have been laid, now to build.

  10. Had an unbelievable day today £5 single Bbrook and £10 single Beat le Bon, with a £2.50 double means a very healthy bet365 balance. Was slightly unlucky with the same type of bet that I put up on Tues but quite possibly wudn’t of won even with a clear run

  11. And Josh don’t know if you remember chat about claimers that I brought up not too long ago?
    Well put firmly back in my box today as had a quick look at your main tip, saw the claimer and noticed a few decent other of the opposition and decided not to back
    So that’s me told

    1. Yep I do haha. Hopefully your superb double eases the pain!
      And great staking. I mean that’s what’s it’s about. Starting at that level or even staying there and slowly slowly progressing over time. It means you can enjoy the losers if that makes sense!

      , I think in that discussion I said I take a look to see if said claimer has a record on the horse. Bar Sean riding him at MR when he won he’s been on for most of his recent runs. He knows him, has won on him, and his 5lb claim prob proved crucial there. He is a horse that needs knowing I think and boy he got him jumping. Were it a new 5lb claimer who’d never ridden then likely no bet. And don’t forget Nicholls has or does use him and he’s no mug when it comes to jockeys! Or in general.

      Your general instinct with those is correct I think but always exceptions to the rule. And on this occasion the horses were far more important than who was on top. And in the end it all comes down to price.

      1. Really really lazy from me and I totally agree with checking the record of claimer and relationship with horse if been on a good few times. I watched the race back and travelled superb and sailed over the last most important fences
        Yes that’s where I’m at with staking at the moment. Need to keep myself sensible because I can easily get carried away and do far too much

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