Members Daily Post: 01/08/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Nottingham

3.25 – Bidding War   (3yo+,micro’s going and age) 14/1

4.00 –

Jackpot Royale   (3yo+,m’s going and age) 22/1

War Eagle   (all Hc’s,m age) G3 40/1 

5.10 – Arctic Nel   (all Hc’s) 18/1

 

Ffos Las

7.15 – Sir Roderic   (all Hc’s) H1 I1 G3 9/4 S1 S4

8.45 – Spot Lite   (all Hc’s) 5/1

 

Goodwood and Epsom

None

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JUMPS

Stratford

3.15 – Trafalgar Rock   (all Hc’s,HcCh) 8/1

3.50 – Green Or Black   (HcH)  w1 H3 I3 9/2 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/84, 28p +31.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 5/93,25p, -48,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

None, Class 5 stuff from Stratford and a Novice handicap I don’t wish to attack.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/5,3p,+5)

None, as above.

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‘Jumps’ Festival Tips

 

Galway Day 4

(1/7,3p, +5)

4.55 Galway Hurdle

Shanning – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365) 15/2 (betfS/PP) 7/1 (gen) UP

Sole Pretender – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for this race/today, as of 08.53, write up to follow at bottom of post

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July TBC)

3.25 Notts – Carey Street – 1 point EW – 16/1 (gen) (1/5,4p WH, dec 3 places) 3rd, +2.2

4.10 Goodw – Xcelente – 1 point EW – 16/1 (WH/BV, 1/5,4p) 14/1 ( 5p SB, 1/5 4p BetfS/PP) UP, -2

0/2, 1p, +0.2

that’s all from Nick, as of 08.09

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain

3.50 Strat – Graceland

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1<)

4.25 Strat – Lord De La Mine

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway/Goodwood… i’ve created a separate post…the stats quals, trends shortlists will live there, and the link to the report is in that post also. Any tipping above as usual.

ALL HERE>>>

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The Galway Hurdle

Shanning…  He hits my trends pointers for this as a ‘way in’, and the market often gets this right with those sent off 7s< having a superb record. What with that, who trains him, being the pick of the stable no.1, his unexposed profile, his course form and his prominent running style, I wanted him onside in this at his price. He does look solid and while he’s clearly been hard to train this looks like it could be his big day in the sun. Everything looks ideal for him and he shouldn’t be far away here.

Sole Pretender… another who hits the stats pointers and if he was trained by Mullins he’d be half this price. There’s a chance that he tries to make all here, or at some point sees off Pearl of The West who I think in 1st blinkers may try and blast out, if nothing else to ensure a hard run race for his stablemate Play The Game. But he shouldn’t be good enough to stay there into the final circuit. This horse is ultra progressive, stays further, jumps very well, is very nimble and will be tuned up to the minute for this- he’s won after a break before, and this has clearly been the plan. Whether he bumps into something with more in hand we shall see – last year was the first winning top weight for a good while but these handicaps in general in recent years can go to classy sorts, albeit he’s prob not up to graded quality. I do think he will be the one to pass turning for home, if running his race. There doesn’t seem much pace in this at all on paper and the stats suggest that over this CD you really need to be leading or prominent, it’s so hard to come from further back and i’m not sure they’ll go overly quick. I could be wrong of course. Horse’s carrying 11-8 are 0/2,1p in this in the last 22 years so I won’t be letting that put me off and he can clearly carry the actual weight. This could be a massive day for his small yard and if he doesn’t fall, and runs his race, i’d be shocked if he wasn’t in the places at worst, but I won’t be cursing him with my dreaded EW ‘certainties’ !!

Of the rest… well I have had some shrapnel on Tudor City.. blimey he’s a frustrating type… Robbie Power may make all the difference and he has so much decent placed form in some very good handicaps- arguably he has some of the best handicapping form in this. But he is now 0/14 in handicap hurdles and he’s on a career high mark. He’s 3lb higher than two starts back, 8lb given no claim, and I decided there would be something better in, and indeed he’s usually held up. So, even at 14s, I decided against him but I fully expect a late rattle, but hopefully never quite getting there. I think he’s likely to place as he is solid and the Martin yard are in fine form – indeed they’ve been in the doldrums for an age it seems but are maybe getting back to themselves.

Of the rest… well 4 year olds are 1/37 in this in 22 years and it’s generally hard for the younger brigade. This is a unique test and at the prices I wanted to take on Band of Outlaws – of course he could still be thrown in but i’d like to see how he develops this year and next. He could just be better than these and if he is, so be it. But 4s looks about right and there are better 4s shots to attack in the jumping game, in some mid-week chase! The same for Garden’s of Babylon really – i don’t like 1st headgear generally as you know- it’s a toss of the coin whether it works and you want a decent price. I think he’s getting short enough – he’s unexposed and the blinkers may work a treat – or they spark him up far too much, he gets unsighted at a few hurdles, and drains himself of energy, with nothing left for the climb to the line. I can leave him.

Riven Light hasn’t raced over hurdles for an age. When he did he couldn’t jump. He’ll have been schooled plenty but this is a different ball game. IF he jumps then he will have a massive say in this and of course he could win it, and win it well. Townend would have had the choice and I think that’s significant on this occasion. It is all about how he hurdles when under the pump, surrounded by horses. At 10s I was happy to leave him on that basis.

Stratum… solid, has a chance of sorts – however I think this will happen too quick for him in the latter half, and they may not go quick enough through the first half of the race. I could have that wrong but having looked at his form, the comments and watched the odd race- I think he’ll get out-paced here and won’t have the toe for it. If this turns into a slog (i can’t see that personally on this ground) then he will stay on best of them I suspect. He may place but i don’t think he’ll have the speed for this, but we shall see if i’m right on that. I can’t say he won’t win of course, esp given his profile/connections, but happy to leave. He needs 2m4f+ over jumps imo.

I wasn’t close to the rest in truth. I suppose some sort of case can be made for David’s charm but he’s 8 and I thought younger hurdling legs may have him. Chosen Mate – well it’s Gordon Elliot. He’s yet to win this race from 20 runners so far but 6 have placed and it could be he’s slowly working out what’s needed at this Festival and how to prep them. He’s got The Plate nailed with 3 wins in the last 4 years now, and maybe this race is next. His horse is unexposed, making handicap debut, and with a big field maiden win to his name. But he’s hard to judge in terms of what he could be. I won’t be shocked if he took this as an interesting profile, but Shanning for example has achieved a fair bit more in such races. But I wouldn’t put anyone off him.

I think this is between the top 10 in the market, those currently 14s<, and if one of the 20s+ shots wins it, so be it – I wasn’t near to any of them!

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that’s all for today…

Plate Review…

Ah well Borice has handled the track, the fences and the hustle and bustle just fine! Luke Dempsey has ridden his best race around there, he’s got him jumping and he’s stayed on best – and of course was well handicapped, which wasn’t a shock. At morning odds of 8s there just wasn’t enough there for me – but he’s clearly settled at GEs now after his first two chase runs, recent months acclimatising and they have clearly worked him out.  He did arrive in form, from novice hurdles. I thought he’d want it softer, as did his trainer. He’s clearly a horse to keep onside moving forward – they will plot some big chase with him and he’ll be better over further and on softer, so plenty of winter options. I was one error away from winning that but alas…

Black Corton has run a cracker, no excuses there. The loose horse hasn’t helped – I suspect without that it would have been a heartbreaking loss, just getting overhauled late on by the winner, going down by a length or something – the winner has won it well, so don’t think it made a difference to the result, however she would have got the rail so you never know. He will be hard to place now but is a fine little terrier.

Peregrine Run has ran a cracker also, no complaints there but he is clearly open to attack from better handicapped ones over fences and that may be as good as he is. His hurdles mark looks very tempting and maybe they’ll plot something down that route.

Snugsborough Benny – why oh why they continue to ride him so cold I have no idea! It’s ridiculous – yes he may need settling and he prob enjoys running through horses but no reason not to have him mid div or just off the pace in my view. He’s got a very big chase pot in him but they keep using up darts and each chase like this takes something out of a horse. They just give him too much to do, and if I owned him i’d rather he hit the front and pull himself up (if that’s the fear) than keep running on late, having used up plenty of energy to get into a challenging position.

Movewiththetimes… well it looked like the money was spot on – he seemed to take off with his jockey at the 9th and came crashing down, looking like he was about to take it up – his jumping/overall chase profile for a race like this was main reason I was happy to leave, esp at his morning odds. Those who piled in EW at 25s can feel aggrieved. It looks like Enda may have found the key – IF/WHEN he puts it all together over fences he’s clearly chucked in I suspect. One to keep an eye on.  MODUS ran with credit also, but ridden too far back , hampered, and staying on. This trip and further could be the key over fences now and while 9 you’d think Nicholls may find a race or two for him. But he is a hostage to fortune with his style.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • Pleased to see one of your Ascot HTF winning at Galway, Josh!

    johnnybetts 31/07/19 6:57 PM Reply


    • haha, was that the 1/2 shot, made that look value come the line!! 🙂 (i didn’t play!)

      Josh 31/07/19 7:09 PM Reply


  • Elite bets results 2019
    BOG + 107.041
    Bookmakers SP + 25.375
    I do back on the exchanges but do put up the worst and best returns, and this will show you why the bookmakers restrict and close accounts for over 300% difference between the two.
    When working every year they did a review of my customer base and it was found 20% were paying my wages, yet the bookmakers have 95% paying their wages and the other 5% are restricted, unless you have 200 plus horses in training and they let you have £50,000 plus bets, and do not think they are serial losers!
    Colin.

    cleafe 01/08/19 7:38 AM Reply


    • When you think about it the bookies would have all gone bust by now if they didn’t restrict BOG. Shrewdies would be placing large bets day in day out effectively soaking up the shareholders returns. Let’s face it this industry needs mugs to keep the bookmakers and shareholders in cigars and the prize money coming in via the levy to keep the owners and connections happy.

      How did you do to BFSP over the same period Colin?

      Tim Hanson 01/08/19 8:46 AM Reply


      • Hi Tim
        BFSP would have been better than bookmakers SP have to take time and check it out, and noticed that having reduced my staking with them the bastards have pushed out my commission to 4.4%, will have to look at other exchanges in the future.

        Tried a couple of weeks ago to find the email for Betfair to no avail if you have it please can you put it up for me for wish to get on the 2%.

        Many thanks
        Colin

        cleafe 01/08/19 10:23 AM Reply


        • It’s like I was saying earlier Colin, if you take the 2% option you will find it has a knock on effect on your other betting activities, if you use sportsbook for example. Here’s a copy of the terms and conditions for the BASIC plan that I went for……

          https://myaccount.betfair.com/rewards/my-rewards?utm_campaign=BCSAH633M&utm_medium=em&utm_source=adobe_campaign

          You’ll notice that the trap the original poster fell into and complained about on here… (No Best Odds Guaranteed on Sportsbook), is the second withdrawn offer on the list IF you decide to take the option. There are others too so read first then decide what’s best for you. I don’t use Sportsbook and I don’t play slots, poker, golf or any of the other stuff they try to drag you into, so all I lost was the odd free bet promo.

          I don’t know why but they appear to have taken there email addresses down in favour of this automated message portal you can access here……… https://support.betfair.com/app/contact_us/

          Tim Hanson 01/08/19 10:50 AM Reply


          • Thank you Tim

            cleafe 01/08/19 12:25 PM Reply


  • So onto today, we had a brave run for our money yesterday, Josh was almost right and i tip my cap in that respect, weight found out Black Corton in the end and was beaten by the fact Borice just had more going up the hill, that run in is mad though, think it`s 3 furlongs, has to be the longest run in from last fence I have ever seen!?
    16:55 Galway
    I have dutched 3 of the 4 Mullins horses and just hope SAYO is using this as a stepping stone to things further down the line, RIVEN LIGHT would probably be my “nap” out of the 3, as he absolutely loves this hill for some strange reason and it will play to his strengths as he has won on the flat here twice. STRATUM missed a good race at Newbury which the owner Tony Bloom won with WITHHOLD, which to me says he knew Withhold would win, so, looked at other alternatives for Stratum….so, here we are.Finally, SHANNING, the lowest price of the four Mullins runners, can only take that as someone has inside info? I would price RL before SHANNING, but, for some reason our bookies don`t agree, he did win nicely last time out and may come on for that, also, he has won here before, so, can only assume that course form is cramping the price!
    so, to summarise
    SHANNING 7/1 gen 1pt win
    RIVEN LIGHT 10/1 gen 1pt win
    STRATUM 11/1 gen 1pt win

    Just a quick note on David Mullins rider of Josh`s winner last evening, he is a very clever rider and i do believe he will become the top jock at the yard at some stage, he won on Kemboy riding similar tactics at Punchestown around Christmas and he has done similar in races throughout the Irish racing season, he doesn`t travel too well and i think his stats in GB aren`t too great to write home about, but, he will improve and if he can transfer it to Cheltenham, watch out!!!

    as usual hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    Stewart 01/08/19 9:08 AM Reply


    • I don’t know about him not traveling so well. He did win the Grand National for us 3 years back on Rule The World when I tipped him up. I suspect the reason his stats aren’t great is because at the big festivals he will be often be on the Mullins 3rd string. Suspect that going forward these stats will improve.

      NickM 01/08/19 9:48 AM Reply


      • Hey, I’m on his side, his intelligence to grab the race by the scruff of the neck and push on is admirable. It wakes all the other jocks up and makes them think “hang on, what do I do now, the owners told me to dictate a slow pace!?”.

        Stewart 01/08/19 10:13 AM Reply


    • I’d say your order is spot on Stewart! 🙂
      Inside info??? What for the horse who bolted up LTO, has course form over hurdles, unexposed, trained by Mullins and the pick of the stable no. 1 ? i certainly wasn’t expecting a big price. Don’t think any inside info, all the evidence is there for us to see on paper.. Riven Light – well he can’t jump – or didn’t very well when last over hurdles hence why they prob kept to flat – If he does jump then i’d agree he’d be the best of the three, and can fully understand you liking his chances – he wasn’t quite big enough for me- were Townend on I may have pondered for plenty longer as that may have indicated his homework on schooling ground was decent, but this is a different kettle of fish. He jumps, then I could be in trouble!

      *
      Yep David gave my winner a peach of a ride, very intelligent and that move at halfway won it, as she settled better on the front and he got her into a rhythm. I didn’t have much concern after he made that move as he was going his own pace and plenty of dross in behind him.

      Yep Black Corton has run a cracker- one error from Borice away from victory! A better handicapped horse has beaten him and yes quite the weight swing – sadly for me the winner both handled the ground and the track superbly, and received a great ride. At 8s there wasn’t enough for me but i’ve clearly got that wrong. His French form was decent, but he wasn’t exactly unexposed, yet Elliot has found some improvement, such is his skill, esp with chasers. Given he’s won 3 of the last 4 i’d best not underestimate his runners in that again! That horse has a few more decent winter chase pots in him I suspect, as the form looks solid, the right 4 horses filling the places for me.

      Best of luck today, i’ll take Shanning dotting up right now! 🙂

      Josh 01/08/19 10:01 AM Reply


      • Don`t be too hard on yourself about Borice, at those prices i left him alone also, when he drifted to 9`s i thought if he goes 10`s I might have some, but, i never saw it, so, left alone. Bet he was some price before they turned in, as BF on BC was sat quiet as the proverbial church mouse…

        Stewart 01/08/19 12:36 PM Reply


  • Lambourn trainers website fancies figures at the end Of July.

    Selections are based upon the relevant trainer being positive about the horse he has running on the day. I will have some different qualifiers from Colin as establishing a trainers positive view is somewhat subjective sometimes. We started part month and so the samples are small and some trainers post every day and some only a few times a week. To qualify for each way the price of the horse must be 5/1+.

    Ed Walker – Win +21, Each Way +9.
    Charlie Hills – Win -6, Each Way -6.5.
    Jamie Osborne – Win 0; Each Way +4.
    Richard Hughes – Win -2; Each Way -1.75.

    So, a small sample but only Ed Walker going well so far.

    martin colwell 01/08/19 9:36 AM Reply


    • Martin
      Took it that you were originally recording the Lambourn trainers ew that i was putting up, to compare the win against ew.
      Having spent 4 to 6 months observing the trainers views i mentioned the four trainers that i trusted with their views and you are putting them up in your own name and i do find this a bit rich!
      Colin.

      cleafe 01/08/19 10:40 AM Reply


      • Colin, you do seem to be a sensitive soul and offended at the slightest thing. If you remember back to early in July I did say that I would start to record the four highlighted trainers win and each way. I did also say I may have different picks from you from the site as defining positive views are subjective.
        I have to back my own judgement as I am a full time punter and tipster and am confident in my views. However i did not differ much, maybe 10%, from what you post each day. By all means keep your own figures for this. I will continue with it from my perspective and report back each end month on here as to how I think that they are going.
        I wish to take no credit for anything re Lambourn trainers. I am just doing it for my own purposes in finding an angle for profit and am happy to share and it be confident on. I keep precise stats on over sixty tipsters and micros etc and use it for my betting. I do suggest all others do this as is relevant, rather than just pick up on winners and ignore losers. do lack empathy but you also may wish to be a bit more robust in not taking offence.

        Whilst I am here, my Nap of the day is 3.35 Goodwood, Maqsad, 1 point each way at 13/2.
        My biggest bet of the day is in the 2.25 Goodwood, Threat, who I am on at 5/2.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 01/08/19 11:13 AM Reply


        • Yes stay positive team, all pulling in the same direction towards long term profit with any luck! 🙂

          It does appear Colin’s excellent and much appreciated research/results recording etc led to selecting those trainers he has – an ongoing record of how they do individually is never a bad thing! It may be that few others are worth following if you/Colin don’t have stats for those not put up – albeit not sure how often other trainers put up views etc – obviously may be some gems in winter months with any luck. It is all very subjective working out the language used etc and determining what to go with – obvs can use as a way in for further analysis, and of course their current form should have some impact.
          It will be interesting to see how it goes… Jamie O in the odd video has hinted that the longer term plans for the site are to pay-wall it I think, as a way of making some money for the Lambourn Trainers Org/charity, but time will tell if that’s the case. There are a few trainers, such as Kim Bailey, who have a monthly subs service to receive views on all his runners etc – not sure if he still does but he used to blog for free and then started charging which is fair enough, as a unique perspective.

          Keep smiling,
          Josh

          Josh 01/08/19 11:25 AM Reply


          • Josh
            already have some NH trainers penciled in for October/November decided that there are plenty of bets from the flat trainers not to bother with summer NH, and believe it was the right decission.
            Lambourn is still a learning curve for me still, and it was nice to hear that Gordon was having a good run backing what i had put up on the forum.
            Colin.

            cleafe 01/08/19 12:53 PM Reply


        • From OBE ( old big head ) arogant, know all and now sensative, i am covering all ranges of the spectrum, anyway Martin now you have mentioned again what you are doing i do recall what you said 1st July so erase previous email.
          Doing far to much with researching old methods and my small brain does not have the capacity to hold all the information, hopefully to leave a legacy for my son, and Elite should do that.
          Sensative guess i am for work hard and put a lot of time into putting my bets up and must admit a little surprised when not a word of congratulations over recording 107 points in 7 months with Elite, and doubt if anyone is close to 100 points on one method on here, a little pat on the back goes a long way especially when my time is free.
          Must turn the golf around for you are leaving me way behind this year, not happy with that. Ha Ha
          Colin.

          cleafe 01/08/19 12:45 PM Reply


          • Oh for sure I think you’re best focusing on the flat trainers at this time of year, makes perfect sense – and having just looked at the NH trainers, the winter game is the main focus for all of them. Well I suppose it is for most but some target summer jumping/have more good ground moderate horses than others!
            For winter game I need to get head around who blogs where etc – Nicky does a weekly blog (well a member of his staff/assistant) for Unibet etc, and many more – and they are always a useful guide, when used in conjunction with your own work, and their current form.

            With the comments on here the reality is that the vast majority are silent and never/rarely post, and given the overall picture – prob bar your Elite and a few others! – has been a bit naff so far this year, I think the general mood isn’t a buoyant one.

            And plenty may be playing a wait and see with Elite to see how it does over a prolonged period before then following maybe. I suspect Gordon isn’t the only one to have had joy with your Lambourn trainers musings – but again as with any ‘method’ that’s new, many will take a watching brief.

            From the survey I did, 99/100 respondents all flick through the comments as part of daily routine, and 46% follow other member tips/comments – and I suspect you’re one of the main ones! 🙂

            But yes praise does always give a boost etc – so WELL DONE with Elite and LT, and CBs will turn around! Of course i’d still like to know more about your methods but I know you have reasons for not divulging too much detail but have given plenty of hints haha.

            Onwards. Josh

            p.s we can all have our cantankerous moments!! 🙂

            Josh 01/08/19 1:10 PM Reply


            • Thats another one Cantankerous
              good job old sod wasnt mentioned alongside it or would have got upset, grr.
              Suppose feel a little low for having brought up my son from 12, and seeing his achievement when graduating last Thursday and he has moved to London for his job it as hit me for a few days,knowing will not see him so often in the future.
              It will all change tomorrow night when dancing away will forget all about him! not a chance.
              Colin.

              cleafe 01/08/19 1:30 PM Reply


              • I appreciate everyone who puts their thoughts up here including your good self Colin. At the moment I look at all your selections together and very often put one or more in my acca.

                Leif Collins 01/08/19 4:56 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.50 Stratford Shufoog BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Stratford Iusetaluvheronce BOG 5/1
    5.10 Nottingham Victoriano BOG 5/1
    8.45 F/L Chop Chop BOG 12/1
    Colin

    cleafe 01/08/19 10:01 AM Reply


  • Hi Martin, you are right about being subjective on trainers thoughts on the Lambourn site. I think you will see that Colin has the rght idea when he puts his picks up. I am doing really well following Colin’s tips from the Lambourn site. Thanks Colin

    Gordon Roberts 01/08/19 10:06 AM Reply


    • Hi Gordon
      Pleased to hear that you are doing well over a period of time that i have put them up, maybe Goodwood should have taken a back seat and given them a miss, hindsight is a wonderful thing, although a couple have hit the crossbar, little worried about Jamie Osbourne for he appears to be out of form, so will tread carefully with his views for the time being, Charlie Hills two big priced bets so far this week could have been the ground.
      Colin

      cleafe 01/08/19 10:47 AM Reply


  • Lambourn
    Ed Walker and Jamie Osbourne cannot back theirs today.

    Hills and Hughes not put their views up yet, doubt there will be anything from them, i am out till 6pm so if anything will put it up later.
    Colin

    cleafe 01/08/19 1:37 PM Reply


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