Free Football Betting Guide
Before my Galway preview… if you like your footy betting, Paul Ruffy has pulled together another Free Report, as he does every year. It’s packed full of great content and his Best Bets. He’s landed his recommended 5-Fold in two of the last three seasons and it includes a Premier League team-by-team preview.
7.20 Galway – The Plate
Black Corton – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)
Peregrine Run – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)
Pylonthepressure – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfred/ToteS) 11/1 (gen)
A video below also…
Black Corton… he does have to shoulder top weight which may be too much but at 14s I wanted to roll the dice. I thought he could out-class these and I can’t say with certainty yet that he can’t win from this mark in a handicap, esp given the 160s+ RPRs he posts. He decimated an ok field at Sandown when last seen over fences and I suspect this has been the plan since, given some of the quotes. He’s just solid- he should race up there, he jumps well and is a trier. I didn’t think this was a great renewal, in the sense that so many have questions to my eyes, esp in the jumping/recent form/hold up horse department.
Peregrine Run… he just seems so solid and 16s was too big. He’s in the form of his life and for the first time at the track gets proper good ground with no rain forecast. If running as he did when last winning a handicap chase he will be prominent enough also. I hope they don’t have him too far back but will get what they deserve if so. He’s in form, he jumps well and he responds to pressure. Conditions look ideal and he could see them all off.
Pylonthepressure… well I like to generally just have 2 in these races but at double figures I had to go with the Mullins horse here. He ran Peregrine Run close in that handicap chase at Ballinrobe (which is similar to Galway) and he was one of the few in here who should be well handicapped/more to come – just a case of when he shows it. He’s lightly raced for his age and this has no doubt been the plan. I’m not sure how they will ride him here but he travels well and if his jumping holds he could swoop into this on the long run in after the last and scoot away of his light weight.
Of the rest… well Poker Party and Barra were high on the list at the prices. I thought the former may just find this too competitive and the handicapper may have him. But I am just basing that on LTO and maybe Punchy was stiff enough. But I had a few niggles on that front so left him. He’s the one I fear at the bigger prices I may have got wrong. As is Barra to a point as she was going to hack up 12 days ago but took one almighty fall. That was very heavy and given she was an iffy jumper at times before that, in this race and given they can hold onto her, I wanted to leave. But I can see the case at the prices. If she is fine mentally after that and jumps well, she may not be very far away at all.
So, at the prices I suppose they were the five. I had concerns over Azzuri’s stamina – hard to say he definitely won’t stay as he hasn’t had many goes, but that was enough for me to leave him. If he does stay then he should be in the mix. I really didn’t want to be with anything else at the prices and if one goes in then I clearly haven’t done a very good job on this occasion. There’s a handful who would be a danger if getting their jumping together, the likes of Pravalaguna, and Snugsborough Benny may run well if getting the luck – but he’s usually ridden very cold and I just don’t like that generally in handicap chases, esp around here, and i’m not sure he’s in the best of form, and this may happen too quick for him.
I should mention the fav – I couldn’t touch Borice at 8s with stolen money, esp given the jockey stats (1/59 here last 5 years, 0/18,1p for GE last 2 yrs) and the fact he hasn’t run over fences for a while. It’s hard to judge his french chase form, which came on much softer also, and at the price I wanted to take him on. His price makes some of the Mullins shorties that have won big chases this year (Irish National for example 8s>6s) look monster prices given their profiles going into such races. Obviously he’ll now hack up – i’ve no doubt he may be well handicapped but happy to take him on.
Pace wise.. well Black Corton should be up there, maybe tracking a handful who will go on. Peregrine run shouldn’t be far away if they ride him like they did in his last handicap chase. I’m not sure what Mullins will do with his – they may race him further forward and wide, given he’s getting more experience- but if he’s thrown in, which is possible, provided he jumps, it may not matter.