Nicky Henderson Chase Angles

Nicky Henderson 

Since the start of 2014, in all standard handicap chases…

298 bets / 34 wins / 97p / 11.41% sr / -61 SP / +5 BFSP / AE 0.81

 

  • Class: LISTED > 28 bets / 7 wins / 11p / 25% sr / +39 SP / +78 BFSP / AE 1.75

 

  • ALL, Sent off 11/1 or bigger SP: 107 bets / 3 wins / 19p / 2.8% sr / -43 SP / AE 0.86

 

The market would appear to be a decent guide with Henderson’s chasers.

From now on I’ll focus on those sent off 10/1 or shorter SP

All 10/1< SP: 191 bets / 31 wins / 78p / 16% sr / -18 SP / AE 0.86

 

Positive Pointers

  • 1 run in prev 90 days: 71 bets / 14 wins / 32p / 20% sr / +22 SP / +34 BFS / AE 1.14
  • 7 year olds: 48 bets / 12 wins / 26p / 25% sr / +23 SP / +33 BFSP / AE 1.34
  • 3-9 runs all handicaps: 95 bets / 22 wins / 40p / 23% sr / +18 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 1.15
  • 0 runs this ‘season’: 44 bets / 12 wins / 23p / 27% sr / +13 SP / +20 BFSP / AE 1.33
  • Won at least once last two runs: 57 bets / 13 wins / 24p / 23% sr / +28 SP / +40 BFSP / AE 1.31

 

Handicap Chases restricted to 5yo+

121 bets / 24 wins / 49p / 20% sr / +17 SP / +32 BFSP / AE 1.04

  • Age 6 or 7: 42 bets / 13 wins / 27p / 31% sr / +28 SP / +33 BFSP / AE 1.36
  • Runners at Aintree: 11 bets / 5 wins / 8p / +27 BFSP
  • 12+ runs in handicaps: 28 bets / 3 wins / 7p / 10% sr / -7

 

Micro Angle

  • Nicky Henderson
  • Handicap Chases (standard, NOT novice hncps)
  • Restricted to 5yo+
  • 0-11 runs in all handicaps
  • 10/1< SP

93 bets / 21 wins / 42p / 23% sr / +24 SP / +36 BFSP/ AE 1.15

  • 8 year olds: 3/34, 10p, -10 BFSP
  • Excluding 8 year olds: 59 bets / 18 wins / 32p / 31%s r / +38 SP / +46 BFSP / AE 1.42

 

The placed stats for 8 year olds are fine but there is some logic I think for why they may underperform… with the 6 or 7 year olds they are likely progressive, and the handicapper may not have them yet. That may not be the case with 8 year olds, who may be at a ceiling, open to attack from younger legs, and need to come down again. They could well be better handicapped when aged 9, and now with more experience open to running well in bigger races. I wouldn’t ignore 8 year olds as such, more so a horse by horse basis, if using the angle as a ‘way in’. There may be nothing to it all bar bad luck! In general focussing on his 6 or 7 year olds isn’t a bad starting point moving forwards. 

 

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