Members Daily Post: 31/07/19 (complete)

Galway x4 Tips Total inc Plate Tips x3, Nick’s tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Goodwood

1.50 –

The Grand Visir   (all Hc’s)  w2  ES+  I3 G3

Zubayr   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 16/1 S3A# UP

4.45 – Naqaawa   (all Hc’s) 14,30  w1 H1 6/1 S6 3rd

 

Redcar

5.00 –

Perfect Swiss   (micro class) H1 G3 7/2 

Grimsdyke   (m class) 20/1

5.30 – War Ensign   (m class) H3 G3 3/1 

 

Leicester and Sandown

None

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JUMPS

Perth

3.10 – Serious Ego   (m +class and runs) 7/1

3.45 – Craedan Grae   (HcCh,m +class)  w1 H3 I1 7/4 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/84, 28p +31.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/87,22p, -55,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/5,3p,+5)

None. 

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‘Jumps’ Festival Tips

Galway Day 3

(0/1,0p, -2)

7.20 The Plate

Black Corton – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

Peregrine Run – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)

Pylonthepressure – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfred/ToteS) 11/1 (gen)

 

6.10 – Mares Handicap Hurdle

Bercasa – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) WON 12/1>10/1 , superb ride… that’s a thinking jockey, she was keen, he had her wide, realised going slow and she was much the best of those, led 4L with circuit to go, never in doubt after that. A small step in right direction.

 

that’s all for Galway/my tipping today, as of 09.25…

Write ups bottom of the post…

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

1.50 GoodW –

Lil Rockerfeller – 1.5 pt WIN – 9/2 (PP), 4/1 (gen) UP

Zubyar – 1 point EW – 16/1 (betfS/PP/UniB) (1/5,5p gen) UP

5.55 GoodW-

Cliffs of Capri – 1 point EW – 25/1 (WH/BV) 20/1 (gen) (1/5,5p gen) 4th,  +3 

0/3, 1p, -0.5

 

that’s all from Nick today, as of 08.07

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

4.20 P – Camile

Trainers to Follow

3.45 P – Amalfi Doug

4.20 P – Murphys Law

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

2.35 P – Lovely Schtuff

5.25 P – Sleepy Hollow

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW!

I’ll record a short video asap but when logged in (on Desktop/Tablet- mobile is rubbish but there are early plans in place to develop an app, and completely re-design the members’ area) … anyway to the left you should now see three tabs…

Micro Monday, Tracker Tuesday, Trends Thursday…

Hopefully it’s obvious what now lives under each of those tabs! 🙂 Obviously those posts will build up over time and are there for your reference, and helps me tidy up these posts/this sections a bit.

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Galway/Goodwood… i’ve created a separate post which i’ll be cracking onto next (17.50 as I type)…the stats quals, trends shortlists will live there, and the link to the report is in that post also. Any tipping above as usual.

Stats Post HERE>>>

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Galway Write Ups…

Bercasa… one for the T Mullins angle here… hopefully she goes off 12s or shorter as they don’t seem to do much when bigger. This one is unexposed over hurdles and i’m sure there’s more to come. Decent ground looks important to her and she’s fit from a couple of spins on the flat. The yard are in better form than when she was last running also and this trainer/owner like having winners at this meeting, i’ve no doubt this has been the plan, probably since her last run over hurdles. They may be patient with her and try to deliver her late but at 12s, given her profile and the trainer record here, I wanted to have a go. Given he’s 6/9, 7p, +52 BFSP with his 12/1<, 17f< runners at this meeting in the last 5 years, I couldn’t resist. I tipped one of his to win here last year in the same colours and hopefully this one can do the same. It doesn’t look a great race in truth and they think enough of her. Fingers crossed.

The Plate…

A video below… but in short…

Black Corton… he does have to shoulder top weight which may be too much but at 14s I wanted to roll the dice. I thought he could out-class these and I can’t say with certainty yet that he can’t win from this mark in a handicap, esp given the 160s+ RPRs he posts. He decimated an ok field at Sandown when last seen over fences and I suspect this has been the plan since, given some of the quotes. He’s just solid-  he should race up there, he jumps well and is a trier. I didn’t think this was a great renewal, in the sense that so many have questions to my eyes, esp in the jumping/recent form/hold up horse department.

Peregrine Run… he just seems so solid and 16s was too big. He’s in the form of his life and for the first time at the track gets proper good ground with no rain forecast. If running as he did when last winning a handicap chase he will be prominent enough also. I hope they don’t have him too far back but will get what they deserve if so. He’s in form, he jumps well and he responds to pressure. Conditions look ideal and he could see them all off.

Pylonthepressure… well I like to generally just have 2 in these races but at double figures I had to go with the Mullins horse here. He ran Peregrine Run close in that handicap chase at Ballinrobe (which is similar to Galway) and he was one of the few in here who should be well handicapped/more to come – just a case of when he shows it. He’s lightly raced for his age and this has no doubt been the plan. I’m not sure how they will ride him here but he travels well and if his jumping holds he could swoop into this on the long run in after the last and scoot away of his light weight.

Of the rest… well Poker Party and Barra were high on the list at the prices. I thought the former may just find this too competitive and the handicapper may have him. But I am just basing that on LTO and maybe Punchy was stiff enough. But I had a few niggles on that front so left him. He’s the one I fear at the bigger prices I may have got wrong. As is Barra to a point as she was going to hack up 12 days ago but took one almighty fall. That was very heavy and given she was an iffy jumper at times before that, in this race and given they can hold onto her, I wanted to leave. But I can see the case at the prices. If she is fine mentally after that and jumps well, she may not be very far away at all.

So, at the prices I suppose they were the five. I had concerns over Azzuri’s stamina – hard to say he definitely won’t stay as he hasn’t had many goes, but that was enough for me to leave him. If he does stay then he should be in the mix. I really didn’t want to be with anything else at the prices and if one goes in then I clearly haven’t done a very good job on this occasion. There’s a handful who would be a danger if getting their jumping together, the likes of Pravalaguna, and Snugsborough Benny may run well if getting the luck – but he’s usually ridden very cold and I just don’t like that generally in handicap chases, esp around here, and i’m not sure he’s in the best of form, and this may happen too quick for him.

I should mention the fav – I couldn’t touch Borice at 8s with stolen money, esp given the jockey stats (1/59 here last 5 years, 0/18,1p for GE last 2 yrs) and the fact he hasn’t run over fences for a while. It’s hard to judge his french chase form, which came on much softer also, and at the price I wanted to take him on. His price makes some of the Mullins shorties that have won big chases this year (Irish National for example 8s>6s) look monster prices given their profiles going into such races. Obviously he’ll now hack up – i’ve no doubt he may be well handicapped but happy to take him on.

Pace wise.. well Black Corton should be up there, maybe tracking a handful who will go on. Peregrine run shouldn’t be far away if they ride him like they did in his last handicap chase. I’m not sure what Mullins will do with his – they may race him further forward and wide, given he’s getting more experience- but if he’s thrown in, which is possible, provided he jumps, it may not matter.

Video…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. just a quick slag off of BFSB , taken bog away without telling me perhaps they made the decision when Fayez drifted to 25-1 and didn’t want to pay me out at that price, sod ’em still get bog with 4 others so they have just lost me . i’ll still use the exchange but they can stick sportsbook up their ar*e.

    1. They did same to me martin, but said it was because I am on basic contract ie chose 2% commission, but that is on exchange!

    2. It comes to all/most in time. You just need shop around and get used to it. It does impact you in your punting. I know as I sometimes see a drift on a winner and I have a moan about no longer being able to benefit from it. However you can still make decent money without BOG.

      1. I really don’t see the point in worrying about BOG anymore. It just seems like a lot of time and effort shopping around and managing multiple accounts for an extra few crumbs. I guess it’s fine if you don’t work, but for me BSP or take a BF price is good enough. I’ve just been looking at my records for tipsters over the last few months and the ones that have been promoted on here really don’t make a profit over time if you take their results at BSP and take and that’s without deducting subs. If you can’t make a profit at BSP then you shouldn’t be tipping. Advised prices are not a legitimate way to base your results. Tipsters need to be producing at least a 25% net profit or they’re not worth the effort.

        1. it wasn’t exactly “crumbs” , we are usually out the house before 9-00 and don’t get back sometimes until 1’sh as we are carers so i like to put my bets on before going out. Fayez was 16’s when i placed my bet and drifted to 25’s and i didn’t know they had stopped giving me bog until i checked the account that’s why i’m moaning if they told you your account was restricted before the fact that would be nice .

        2. Have always put my returns to Bookmakers SP and BOG for must be close to two years now to show how difficult it is to win at SP, do this for all my bookmakers accounts have been closed or heavily restricted Ladbrokes would only accept 10 pence ew.
          Colins bets very poor year this year so far plenty of time to go.
          Elite bets from January this year is plus + 103 points up level stakes win only at BOG so 2 bets today if both lose it is 101 points up in 7 months, like everything in racing it is long term not a few months which you did not state which month you started reviewing the results on here.
          Was going to stop putting up SP but will update my own records over the next few days and will put them up.
          You quote Betfair trust that is the Spotsbook site which again cannot bet with and the Exchange use the same SP but they charge you upto 5% commission charge for the privlage of using them.
          Lastly all my bets are put on around 10am when the market and N/Rs have been put up in most cases, could claim fancy overnight prices and no doubt could claim more points profit, but that is not me.
          Colin.

          1. I think handbag means Betfair Exchange SP… that is very different from industry SP… much debate as to how the latter is determined by the rep bookies on course… and I don’t know how betfair SP is decided/what influences it, but over the course of time it out-performs industry SP quite considerable I believe – especially in big field/higher class handicaps… those difference in SP and Betfair exchange SP can be massive – even after all the commissions I believe- but I could be wrong.
            Profit to BFSP after commission is the holy grail at the moment, but hard to achieve, esp during the week – but for big races/big fields etc is prob place to focus on exchange.

        3. interesting musings Chris…

          Do you have any thoughts on best sort of races to focus on BFSP wise? I don’t fully agree with all your points as think there are enough bookies etc where you can take the price, and what with a few with staking/profit guarantees etc , and always the shops… do agree about lack of BOG to a point and I should try and record results to as advertised/non BOG, and BFSP… provided the person tipping is conscious of price, and is fair with available prices, and ensures they are around for 20/30 mins after posting, generally, I don’t have issues with that approach. Those who declare profit to one stand out price very early the evening before are playing a dubious game but soon get found out – of course such may be their success you can afford to miss advised priced by a few points on average over time.

          I agree the holy grail is long term profit to BFSP after commission – I can only think on mid week/low liability dross racing that is very very difficult, but I could be wrong. I suppose you need a higher threshold for what you deem a value price to take account of a bigger drop etc. Of course those that are successful to BFSP – esp outside of big field races- if they build up a decent following, who bet plenty in time, that could well affect the BFSP? (I say that not knowing how it’s calculated!) and thus they become unprofitable to BFSP.

          A tricky game- but I don’t think getting on is a problem/non bog – esp if not taking the mickey with bookies and spreading bets around if you’re betting plenty/have a big liability to horse X due to price.

    3. They did the same to me too. Bet Victor is only one to allow me normal betting without restrictions now (you watch them place them on me today now I’ve said that) and it’s not as if if I’m a successful gambler.

      1. If you take the 2% commission option you lose all the ‘goodies’ so to speak, even the ‘free bet’ promo’s they send to you occasionally. As MC said you can’t expect to have it all ways. You need to look at your style of betting and figure it out before you make your decision which way is right for you. AFAIA you can go back to the standard terms any time you want, all you have to do is make an email request.

  2. The 1.50 at Goodwood
    Down to 3, Zubayr 16/1 sticks out being a Williams nag carrying no weight at all. Fun Mac 14’s has been bang there in the last 2 of these races just running into a few too good on the day but I bet it’s bang there again and a first try with Atzeni on. But the one that stuck out most of the 3 was Timoshenko, was 9/1 but has come in already while I’ve been looking. Niggle is that it’s FTO but if it goes close to the form of when beating Austrian School in the last race then it’s obvs going to lose the opportunity of winning of this mark so hopefully have it tuned up.
    Think il back Timoshenko win and Fun MAC ew

  3. Nap of the day – 8.00 Galway, Eagles Rock, 1 point each way, 10/1 now.

    Systems selection: Bin Suroor 2YO Maiden etc – 6.35 Sandown, Dubai Souq, 1 point win, 15/2 now.

    Good luck

  4. COLINS BETS
    Redcar
    4.30 Salam Zayed BOG 4/1
    5.00 Jacob’ Pillow BOG 4/1
    5.00 Spirit Of Zebedee BOG 6/1
    5.30 Fox Hill BOG 4/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.45 Goodwood Nearooz BOG 5/2
    8.05 Leicester Inexes BOG 11/2
    Colin

  5. Morning,

    Well it`s that time again, hope you haven`t missed me?
    It`s Galway Plate time and let`s hope we don`t have the shock of last year…..
    19:20 Galway
    AZZURI 1pt win 16/1 gen
    Now, we (the Brits) have sent a serious raiding party over here this year, normally we leave it well alone, but, for some reason we must have a good bunch and the extra 30k Euros have swelled the pot!! This one has been seen as a decent raider and you may get better odds later in the day as the Irish will back one of the “hot pots!!” off the board and forget about our raiders!? He is a bit of a quirky sort, but, Mr Skelton always has his horses to the fore at this time of year and it seems strange they send this one over! He absolutely trounced his field at Ayr LTO and I know that was over 2m, but, the ground i think is key to him! ( he doesn`t like it too soft, he has won on soft, but, they were early on his career and good- good-sft would be max). He should front run and I know the course is a bit of an unknown, but, he has finishing speed and that run in and uphill finish will dent some of his rivals, whereas he has the speed!!
    MODUS 1pt win 20/1 gen
    Now, whilst everyone will be talking about the other Nicholl`s horse and Bryony, (who could well win this, but, 15 out of the last 16 running’s have been from down in the bottom half of the Handicap), Modus sneaks in here on a favourable mark and I believe Mr Nicholls will have set different tactics for Harry to follow here, he normally sits out the back, but, think he may be up with the pace this time and if he is, I believe he will set him alight after the last to come home in a three way with my other two. If he is out the back cash out, because not many come from behind here to win….
    RAVENHILL 1pt win 16/1 gen
    Now, we all know Mr Elliott`s tactics in these kind of races, throw as many darts as you can at the board and normally one or two hit the bulls eye. He generally has his team stalking round and they sometimes bully the other horses out of the way, a la team Sky in the TDF. I see this being no different today, ( On that note, if Black Corton is out the front I do not believe and this is only my opinion, he likes a fight, Modus on the other hand does and is one of the reasons I hope he rides up with stable mate BC). He won the “Galway Plate trial” at Limerick and looked beat jumping the last two only to battle back and get himself in front close home, it is that battling quality that you will need here as messers Mullins/Nicholls and Elliott go head to head.

    Maybe I have missed the winner, Mr Mullins may go one better this year, Peregrine Run is a decent horse (just don`t think he likes the track), BC and Bryony I would cheer her on, but, think the weights and the fact he isn`t battle hardened go against him….plus a few others, anyways, we shall see. Let battle commence!
    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    1. Best of luck Stewart – well we have 6 of the 22 or so runners so hopefully one of us is right! 🙂 I can see the cases for those, and Modus is interesting – you may be right about switching up tactics and Harry C may make plenty of difference- he can be buzzy and stamina to prove, and I wanted to see more evidence over further than 17f from Azzuri – but fully understand at price why you’d roll dice, and if he can get away (albeit they may hold onto him given trip move) he could lead over the last, and then who knows!

      As an aside…from the stats i’m looking at 9/15 have been won by horses in the top 10 in the weights- I tend to look at position in weights as much as actual weight, which can obviously differ depending on how highly rated those near top are etc. All in all I didn’t think was anything cast in stone, stats wise, in terms of best place in weights to be.

      Should be a thriller and with any luck we both have 6 live chances. best of luck.

      1. Would love to see the 6 of ours at the front and might have a Tricast/forecast combo with them, only small stakes mind. Just hope it doesn`t turn into a Mr Elliott procession, too many of the big ones are, but, it is my interpretation that when the Gigginstown operation dries up it will put things back on an even keel over in the Emerald Isle! Not that it hasn`t been a good thing, but, I`m all for the little guy, rather than the monopolies!!
        Stats are always meant to be broken, but, think the top weights have an awful record in this and there have been some good uns!! The other bit is, weight is relevant to the individual horse, some of them can shoulder it, others can`t, all relative to form study and let`s us form opinions accordingly.
        I agree with you about Borice, he could hack up, but, to me he has a lot to prove and it`s whether he takes to the hussle and bustle of a big race like this!

        1. oh yep, actual weight to horse is important – Black C has to prove that he can shoulder it,and obv open to attack from anything with more in hand, but class could win out… top weights only 0/12,3 places in recent year. And a join top weight carrying 11-11 has won this. at 14s I decided i’d have a go- but yep maybe he’ll get overhauled after the last and that 2f run in or whatever it is. I’m not sure many in this could do what he did in that Sandown race. We shall see.

          Yea, given the number of Giggy chasers i’ve backed to victory over the years I don’t mind so much haha – he does seem to have targeted this race a bit more in recent years, or as you say just throws darts and hopes. Nothing in 1st headgear from him this year mind, we shall see. At least you have one of his onside.

  6. Lambourn
    Hitting the crossbar last couple of days
    Charles Hills
    4.10 Goodwood Flippa The Stripper BOG 11/4
    Ed Walker
    5.55 Goodwood Blackheath BOG 8/1
    Osbourne and Hughes not put their views up yet.
    Colin

  7. Lambourn
    Jamie Osbourne
    6.05 Sandown Return To Senders BOG 5/2 bullish that it should win and some of his fancied ones have drifted out in the betting before, lets hope so.
    Hughes still not come on and i am going out in a few mins so thats it today.
    Colin

  8. No tips at all for the afternoon. Got a couple of possibilities of the type I don’t put up as tips so not a completely blank afternoon. The ducks appear to be forming an orderly line for me this month as I was down considerably on the tips front earlier in the month only to be up about +7 pts. Had a big hit on my ‘qwerky chestnut deb’s’ system early in the month which has put it over 60 pts up on the year, but I don’t post them on here as I don’t really understand how it works. TBH I’m clueless as to why it works really as it was one of the systems I discovered early when I decided to go Proform and I remember thinking at the time it was ludicrous, so I decided to punt it at £5 Win/Place and reinvest the profits. So far it has made 257 points profit and my stake is now £67. Still don’t understand as to how/why it works though.

    I thought of including them in the tips section but didn’t want to risk Josh having a coronary! 😉 I might put them in anyway but remember if you choose to follow, the strike rate for the past 5 seasons is a paltry 13.7% which gives you an idea of what to expect, although having said that, the profit is almost 800 points. When they do score it can be into three figure returns.

    1. haha, well you can post them in here 🙂 Or there, doesn’t matter – and if it goes over the ‘max’ limit for ‘tips’ in a month, so be it 🙂
      I’m like you – I like to understand why something works and if I don’t it’s hard to know to keep the faith long term, esp when a dip comes etc – and i just like to know, esp what the logic may be etc – but if it’s a set of rules and the data is sufficient, then with any luck may continue! do you know the win SR etc?

      1. It came about as a by product of my first attempt at using Proform for novice and maiden races. I had an idea for thinning down the fields and found that when I looked deeper and cut through all the crap only chestnut horses showed a profit. Since then I’ve developed the idea into the methodology I use for the no hcp tips I put up here every day. The ‘qwerky chestnut deb’s’ system is all that remains of my first attempt at specialising in non handicapped novice events.

        I’ll need to run it up on the machine for a detailed summary but is no problem as I’m sat here watching Goodwood on TV right now with very little chance of having a bet. Even broke my ‘no favourite’ betting rule yesterday with a canny tenner punted on Stradivarius. Managed to grab a bit of almost evens (1.97) about it which I thought justified a little support at the time. The devil finds work for idle hands! I’ll be back with the summary shortly.

        1. 231 Runners, 38 Wins, (13.52% SR), +813.67, “899.56% ROI.

          Is not exactly a huge number of bets over 5 seasons so won’t make a great difference to the number of bets per month. It is a purely bloodlines system with no ratings, speed figures, trainers, jockeys etc etc. So the only conclusion I can offer is genetics maybe.

          Also some times the same horse can come up as a no hcp bet as well in which case I back them accordingly for both methods so as to keep the figures straight.

    1. cheers, those Festival winners been rare this year, needed one to go in! Takes pressure off the Plate but would be happy days if can add that in. Fingers crossed.

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