Members Daily Post: 30/07/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone, Galway/Good Quals

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Beverley

3.50 –

Billy Dylan   (all Hc’s)  G3 11/1 

Packington Lane   (3yo+,micro age)  ES+ G3 20/1 S3A 

4.20 –

Markazi   (all Hc’s) H3 G1 6/1 S6 UP

Candelisa   (3yo+) 20/1 

Storm Ahead   (3yo+,m runs)  ES+  I1 18/1 S3A S6  UP

4.55 –

Red Seeker   (3yo+,m age and runs)  w1  ES+ H3 G1 6/1 S3A# S6 WON 6/1>9/2 

Queen Of Kalahari   (3yo+,m class)  w2  11/1  UP

Make On Madam   (3yo+,m class) 12/1 

Dreamseller   (3yo+,m age)  ES+  I3 15/2 S3A 3rd

5.30 – Bollin Ted   (3yo+,m runs)  w1  ES+ H1 I1 4/1 S1 S3A# UP

 

Goodwood

1.50 – Nicklaus   (all Hc’s)  14,30  20/1 

4.45 – Muthmir   (all Hc’s) 14,30  H3 5/1 

5.15 –

Pattie   (3yo+) I3 25/1 

Nkosikazi   (all Hc’s) 14,30  7/1 

 

Yarmouth

1.40 – Garth Rocket   (all Hc’s) G3 14/1 

2.50 –

Sexy Secret   (4yo+) 20/1 

Lady Carduros   (m age) 40/1 

4.00 – Polybius   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 13/2 S3A# UP

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JUMPS

Perth

8.00 – Pats Oscar   (m runs) 4/1 

 

Worcester

None

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/84, 28p +31.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/87,22p, -55,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

None.

Nothing much to attack on Tuesday. Monday was frustrating, finding one too good. A decent run from Exxaro, he seemed to get tapped for toe around there at a crucial stage, but should pick up a pot this summer somewhere. He’s handicapped to win without a claim so hopefully Tom Scu or Harry C jump on soon. The winner was having his second chase start, and had the hurdles form to compete if ever transferring it. He was awful on chase debut but they switched the headgear (and had run well in blinkers recently) stepped him up 6f in trip, back to the distances he did well at over hurdles, and Sam jumped back on, he’d won on him before. The yard were also going well. STD gave him a superb ride and he had too much for mine. In truth I wasn’t that close at 15/2, but maybe too much emphasis put on his last effort, with, in hindsight, valid excuses. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/5,3p,+5)

None.

 

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‘Jumps’ Festival Tips

Galway Day 2

(0/1,0p, -2)

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

NONE today from Nick. Predicting the going today at most tracks come race time, or through the card, looks challenging given the unsettled forecasts. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain

7.50 Worc – Takingitallin

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow

8.00 P – Uptown Funk (11/1< guide) 

9.00 P – Mrs Davies (11/1< guide) 

Jockeys/Chasers

5.35 Worc – Caveat Emptor (9/1< best) 

5.35 Worc – Starlight Court 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

6.15 P – Neitzsche 

8.30 P – Havana Jack 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points 

8.30 P – Danboru 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway/Goodwood Report. 

Includes trends for Galway Plate/Hurdle, and five handicaps from Goodwood

READ REPORT HERE>>>

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Stats ‘Quals’ from the pointers/micros in the report above…

Glorious Goodwood Day 1 

Mark Johnston Micro 

1.50 – Ventura Knight 

3.35 – Dee Ex Bee

4.10 – Fuwayrit 

 

Mark Johnston Watch

(using the positive pointers for his class 2 cappers as listed in report above) 

1.50 – Aquarium / Ventura Knight 

 

‘Quickfire Stats’ 

3.00 – Zaaki 

3.35 – Stradivarius 

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Galway Day 2 

Micros – NONE 

Willie Mullins Watch 

5.20 – Fast Buck 

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Stats/Trends Shortlist 

1.50 Goodwood

Trainers (won race last 15 years, with runners…) 

  • Ventura Knight / Aquarium 
  • Nicklaus 

Shortlist 

The stats are not overly helpful here, the 15/15 stats leaving far too many… 

Looking at the 15/15, and those that did not run in a 4YO+ race LTO and who had 2 handicap wins to name finds 8 of last 15 winners (8/34, 15p, +52 BFSP)… as some sort of pointer that leaves just the one… 

Exec Chef 

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From yesterday…

Monday MICRO 

A look at some Colin Tizzard Chase Pointers/Micros >>>

READ HERE>>>

 

Tracker Tuesday 

Smithscorner – 8 YO Bay Gelding / Trainer- M Kennedy

One from across the water here. He ran at Wexford on the 26th July in the 7.50, taking a crashing fall two from home. I’m not really sure what happened there as it looked as though he didn’t see the fence and just walked through it, having jumped well up to that point. He tanked through the whole race like an in-form, well-handicapped, chaser and he was cruising upsides the eventual winner. That winner, Successor, was unexposed also for Joseph O’Brien and for a summer chase may be decent enough form. The rest were well stuffed. The horse has only run over fences 6 times, winning for the first time three starts back when bolting up off 100. This performance indicated a mark of 109 won’t be stopping him – just whether his jumping does. In any case i’ve no doubt he’s very well handicapped still, and with any luck may show it again soon. 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Lambourn
    Got it right today, but not our day today
    Ed Walker
    Molls Memory backed from 11/2 to 2/1 unplaced
    Midas Girl backed from 14/1 to 10/1 second lost by 3/4 length
    Jamie Osbourne
    Vegas Boy backed from 13/2 to 7/2 unplaced RP write up very awkwardly away lost many lengths and in rear, ran on late, no chance!
    Colin

  2. Hallings Comet from Ben’s Summer Stunners aims to follow up in the 8.20 at Worcester tonight following his win there 22 days ago. Currently on the drift, 2/1 from 13/8.

  3. COLINS BETS
    Beverley
    2.40 Royal Flag BOG 6/1
    2.40 Airplane BOG 7/2
    Yarmouth
    4.30 Sharp Operator BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    Yarmouth
    2.50 Percy Prosecco BOG 13/2
    2.50 Maroon Bells BOG 5/1
    4.00 Royal Residence BOG 9/2
    Beverley
    4.55 Dreamseller BOG 7/1
    Colin

  4. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    4.45 Goodwood Maygold BOG 13/2

    Charles Hills not put his views up yet, if there is anything will put up later.

  5. Manged to have quite a good look at Goodwood last night had a bit of time
    Thought 1.50 Setting sail looks the obvious one but nearly top weight id take on with Beringer who should come late and be thereabouts. Can reverse result with Jazeel with a better draw hopefully
    Will just watch the 2.25 Pinatubo looks top but not a betting race for me the 2yr olds

    The 3pm i like Zaaki thought a great battle with Beat the Bank. Bad draw tho right out wide. A few of these in this race strange planning Flaming Spear FTO and Hey Gaman and the irish nag coming here from the Curragh which isn’t a long break, pick for me would be Sir Dancealot with good course form and surely aimed at the race.
    Done a double and singles with Beringer and Sir Dancealot.
    Dont think anything will beat Stradivarious, i might chance a small ew on South Pacific tho at 33’s its never ran a bad race and O’Brien constantly stepping it up in trip think it could be a sneaky place

  6. Nap of the day is…..2.25 Goodwood, Mystery Power, 1 point each way, 17/2.

    Systems selection – Bin Suroor 2YO maidens – 4.10 Goodwood, Lost In Time, 1 point win, 6/1 now.

    Good luck.

  7. Lambourn
    Charles Hills
    1.50 Goodwood Plutonian BOG 25/1 2nd in this race last year in good form at home
    4.45 Goodwood A Momentofmadness BOG 22/1 been freshened up for this race.
    Price do not put me off with Charles Hills both could come last or one or both can win!
    Colin

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