Members Daily Post: 29/07/19 (complete: 09.13)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Ayr

2.30 – Cardaw Lily   (micro class) I3 G3 10/1 

3.30 – Aeolus   (m runs) H3 8/1 

4.30 –

My Amigo   (m runs) 25/1

Equidae   (m class) I3 G3 8/1 

5.05 – Corton Lass   (m runs)  20/1

 

Ffos Las

6.50 – Handytalk   (all Hc’s) I3 4/1 

8.00 – Queens Soldier   (all Hc’s) H1 I1 G3 3/1 S1 S4

8.30 – Gold Flash   (all Hc’s) G3 10/1 

 

Windsor

7.15 – Tin hat   (3yo+,m dist) 20/1

7.50 –

Ice Age   (3yo+,m dist) 9/1

Sunsprite    (m age) G3 16/1 

Molls Memory   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  ES+ H3 9/2 S3A

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot

2.45 – Exxaro   (m class) I3 11/2 

3.15 – Tamarillo Grove   (all Hc’s)  w2 H3 I1 11/2 

4.15 – Floral Queen   (m class) 9/1

4.45 – Bramble Brook   (m class) H3 I3 6/1 

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/84, 28p +31.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

2.45 NA – Exxaro – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) 2nd, 5/1. No excuse I don’t think there, he’s run his race. Decent ride by Sam on the winner, second start over fences, stepping back up in trip, blinkers swopping visor (he’d worn before) – that chase debut was just a bit too poor for me 17 days ago albeit yard are going better in last two weeks – one of those. He was the least exposed in the field and his hurdles form/mark entitled him to win like that over fences one day in a race like this. I didn’t think it would be today, so got that wrong at an ok price. Trainer was 0/29,4p with ‘distance move’ horse s(20%+ in trip from LTO) in last couple of years which also put me off. Moving on. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/5,3p,+5)

None.

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‘Jumps’ Festival Tips

Galway Day 1 

7.40 – Legal Spin – 1 point EACH WAY – 8/1 (1/5, 5p… Lad/BV/UniB/Coral) UP, 8/1, a poor ride I think but that’s Galway, doubt it would have mattered, picked the wrong Mullins horse, the 28/1>8/1 shot winning from list below, which is always a tad galling.

 

Write ups below at bottom of post. 

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

NONE from Nick today.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Jockeys/Chasers

2.45 NA – Forever My Friend

4.45 NA – Bramble Brook

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.15 NA- Constancio / Tamarillo Grove

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW!

Final Galway/Goodwood Report. 

Includes trends for Galway Plate/Hurdle, and five handicaps from Goodwood (i’ve dabbled in using 15 year pointers for those)

READ REPORT HERE>>>

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Galway Day 1 

‘Micro’ Qualifiers as per report above

5.20 – City Ballerina / Morosini (Jessie H)

5.55 – Colour Me In (12/1<) (TM)

8.40 – Judex Lefou (12/1<) (TM)

 

Willie Mullins Watch

(horses hitting those stats detailed in report)

5.20 – Authroized Art

7.40 – Legal Spin / Royal Illusion / Mr Adjudicator / Great White Shark

8.40 – Think Positive

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Write ups…

Exxaro – I thought 11/2 was fair enough here albeit if he takes a big walk in the market that would be a concern… I put this one in my tracker after LTO when Stewart tipped him I believe but the ground went completely against in – he’s pulled up twice for Tizzard and both were with soft in the going, and it was testing at Uttoxeter, i’m not sure there was any good in the going at all, he never travelled or looked happy. IF he got back to the form of his return at Ffos Las he’d go very close to taking this. His only chase win was last June at Uttox over 26f off 119, he’s 2lb lower here and with 7lb off his back. He’s handicapped to go in again. He’s spent most of his chase career anchored on marks too high I think, inc in the 130s. He should track plenty of pace in this, he generally jumps well, he stays, and he wants decent ground. His inexperienced pilot has won in Hunter chases and placed a few times under rules, inc riding Sizing Grantite well enough at the track a few weeks back. The 64 day break may suggest there’s been an issue but that second start came quick enough after his first, where given the odds I can’t think he was fully tuned up, but he ran well with the right two horses in front of him and he’s raced over fences here before. I didn’t like much else at the prices at all really.

to Galway…

Last year’s members’ tips at this Festival pulled in +20.5 points I think (inc some Flat winners from ‘jumps/dual purpose’ trainers), inc me going a bit too mad on the last day – obviously this year’s Festival tipping hasn’t gone as well as last year, some understatement. The place % has been ok and with a bit more luck that loss pile wouldn’t be as bad, but I have this one week to turn it around/claw some losses back. It will be selective enough, with eyes fixated on those trainers listed in the report above, and with a look at the big Hurdle/Plate. (the latter race the only one where Elliot’s runners will be considered I think, given his ok record in that, but shocking record in everything else)

Given their form, I do wonder if this will be the Willie Mullins and Jessie Harrington show. The former is  10/33, 17p all runners in the last month. The latter has already beaten her Flat winners from last season I believe, with 100 fewer runners, so that yard is in fine fettle.

to the 7.40…

Legal Spin… with 5 places to aim at i’ve gone EW, and if he’s out the first 5 then they’ll be tears all round… he’s unexposed, arrives in form and should have come on from LTO. He achieved a decent RPR of 90 in that race and gets the excellent and underrated Patrick Mullins in the saddle. In recent years you can just back father and son blind at this meeting, especially when no hurdles/chases, and we shall see if that plays out again this year.

Mullins has won the last two renewals of this race and as per the stats report he’s 13/38, 20p +59 BFSP with all his flat runners here in the last 5 years. Trainer/jockey are 2/6,5p with all flat runners at the track in the last 5 years, 3 of those places in handicaps.

The horse tried to make-all LTO on his seasonal return and only gave out very late in a big field, with a gap between the front 3 and the rest. He’s drawn in 7 here and provided he’s quick out the stalls, he may try and do so again. In any case i’d be disappointed if he wasn’t front rank all the way through this, keeping out of trouble. Given all the positives I thought he should be a tad shorter here, and closer to his stablemate.

Patrick Mullins lowest weight in the last year has been 10-13 so I doubt he had the choice of riding the 10-11 Mr Adjudicator – he may have picked him if he could as you’d think he’s thrown in on the flat – however he may well have a wall of horses in front to get around if they’re patient with him and staying 2m at Flat pace is different to over hurdles, and he does have to prove his flat stamina, which he may do. But I didn’t think 3s was overly generous in this race, but he could win this well if he stays and with luck in running. It could be they try and race him prominently and if he’s not far off mine through this, I could be in trouble. Maybe the two of them will be fighting it out!

There isn’t money coming for anything else as yet with seemingly plenty of dead-wood in this. We shall see how it develops through the day as you do get the odd plunge horse or five at this meeting. The selection just looks solid, if running his race, and looks overpriced.

Fingers crossed.

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Monday MICRO 

A look at some Colin Tizzard Chase Pointers/Micros >>>

READ HERE>>>

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    2.45 N/A Fifty Shades BOG 2/1
    4.45 N/A As You Like BOG 10/3
    Colin

    cleafe 29/07/19 9:52 AM Reply


    • As You Like 10/3 to 9/2 this is why you take BOG when you can best of both worlds.
      Colin

      cleafe 29/07/19 7:07 PM Reply


  • Nap of the day is…..3.30 Ayr, Luzum at 1.5 points each way at 11/2 BOG.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 29/07/19 11:25 AM Reply


  • Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    6.15 F/L Midas Girl BOG 14/1
    7.50 Windsor Molls Memory BOG 11/2
    Jamie Osbourne
    7.15 Windsor Vegas Boy BOG 13/2

    7.25 F/L Jukebox Jive this is not a bet because of the price of 6/4, Jamie was sweet on it in Dubai and he said that stay over in Dubai did not work out, vibe today should hopefully win tonight, but too short for me, however will have another look nearer the off.
    Colin

    cleafe 29/07/19 12:57 PM Reply


    • I also thought the Ed Walker was reasonably bullish about Inflamed in the 5.45 FL each way.

      martin colwell 29/07/19 1:16 PM Reply


      • He his quitely hopeful of a better run than the first one, but the race is full of unexposed 2yos and it may well win or get a placed.
        I do not back ew way so for me cannot back it, have been wrong before on my assessment, now Midas Girl in Ed Walkers words can run a big race in what looks a fairly weak maiden, and i take it that this is the stronger fancied of the two.
        Have to draw the line on how many i back for it is easy to run away backing too many, have put up 47 win bets this month and level stake profit is + 23.75 points so far, for which i am more than happy, will be interesting to see your ew results on the 47 bets.
        This is still a learning curve for me and it maybe worth putting 2 points win upto 8/1 then 1 point win above 8/1 this is still going around in my mind.
        Colin.

        Colin

        cleafe 29/07/19 2:22 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I notice that one of your HTF from Royal Ascot, Arctic Fire, is entered in the 7.40 at Galway tonight, although you haven’t mentioned him in your write-up!

    As you have now “distanced yourself” from flat racing, is it still advisable to follow these?

    johnnybetts 29/07/19 1:03 PM Reply


    • Hi Johnny… well horse’s to follow are always tricky – you either just decide to back blind or your use them as a ‘way in’, which is usually my preferred method. He’s 10, was too keen LTO, they keep holding him up (which isn’t a bad think in itself, but I don’t like it at Galway) and he’s drawn wide- I thought something may have more in hand but he did get a shocker of a ride LTO – wouldn’t be surprised if he plugged on into a place but will need plenty of luck. He runs as if he’s still got a race or two in him but whether this will be too hot we shall see. He is 22s+ mind, if you fancied some beer money EW. He will need them to go quick though and I wasn’t sure they would but I could be wrong.
      Josh

      Josh 29/07/19 3:07 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, I am in the “back them whatever” brigade for HTF, so have had a small e/w at 22/1 (5 places).

        johnnybetts 29/07/19 4:54 PM Reply


  • Hi everyone. Not sure if these still hold water but I have a few micros in my ancient notebook, for your amusement or use!

    1. Horses rated 110+ in G1 races.

    2. Horses drawn 1-7 in 7f/1m hcps.

    3. William Haggas runners in C2 hcps, top three in weights.

    4. Ian Williams hcp runners.

    5. M.Bell runners 8/1 or under.

    6. AOB favourites.

    Don’t shoot me if these are rubbish, they must have worked at some point to be in the notebook, but I don’t have any records 🙂 Enjoy the week.

    Mark Curtis 29/07/19 1:27 PM Reply


    • Sorry should have made clear, these are for Glorious Goodwood.

      Mark Curtis 29/07/19 2:46 PM Reply


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