Members Daily Post: 28/07/19 (complete:10.10)

Chase tip x1, Test tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Pontefract

3.20 –

Billy Roberts   (all Hc’s)  w2 H3 9/2

Firewater   (micro class)  w1 G1 9/2

4.30 – Highly Sprung   (3yo+) 11/4

5.40 – Shepherds Purse   (m dist) H3 I1 7/2

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JUMPS

Uttoxeter

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/83, 27p +32.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

5.20 Uttox – Miss Batten – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP) 8/1 (gen)

that’s all for today from me, as of 09.35, write ups below…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/5,3p,+5)

3.35 Uttox – Asockastar – 1 point win – 6/1 (Lad/BV/Coral) 11/2 (others)

that’s all for the Test, as of 08.58

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Miss Batten – I’ve gone with the least exposed one in this, and the one open to most improvement. She hacked up in her point and Russell has spent little time sending her over fences. She made a pleasing chase debut under rules over CD LTO and i’m not sure this race is any deeper. She races prominently and jumped well there. Russell is 3/15,4p in handicap chases at the track in the last five years and she’s sent just the one runner on the 585 mile round trip. She doesn’t have much on her back and given this is soft already, and could be a slog come this race, I thought she may just grind away – she looked like a galloper LTO, having got tapped for toe on the turn for home LTO when the pace lifted.

I didn’t like much else at the prices – Delgany Demon is short but in first CP you could see him going very well. He’s yet to win over fences and is 11 now but some decent placed efforts, he won’t mind the ground, and maybe they will be more aggressive on him here. He ran ok to a point LTO, staying on steadily. This may suit more. But I want to take him on at the prices. As I do Moreece who’s unexposed but 4s for a horse who’s 0/19, 5p in his career is short enough for me, especially as i’m not sure soft ground will suit. I wouldn’t be shocked if he took this but I can leave at the prices. As I can Jotem Down as i’m not sure as to strength of his form, and ground a niggle also. Definately Vinnie is interesting to a point but is only 1/29 in his career, now 0/10, 3p over fences. Some of those placed efforts would be good enough possibly against this lot but he was poor LTO. Of the bigger priced ones he is the most interesting I think, if leaving that last run behind. He can be held up, or race up there. Soft ground is a question for him as well.

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Asockastar – maybe i’ll get mu just deserts for going with an 11 YO in this race but he’s lightly raced, is in the form of his life, and dotted up LTO in a decent enough time I think. He races on the pace, or just off it, jumps well and has enough form on soft for me not to use that as an excuse. I think Bradley just has the license and someone else may be doing the training but i’m not sure who! In any case dropped back in trip he looked transformed at Worcester and the performance staks up on the figures. On only his 8th chase under rules in the last 5 years, there’s still a chance we haven’t seen the best of him yet – relatively speaking, and in the context of this race , which is one of the weaker C2s you’ll find, even for summer.

Of the rest.. well I like Sizing Granite and I was pondering whether a repeat of Punchestown or Ayr would be good enough to take this – it could be. He’s arguably got the best soft ground form in the race of these also. I preferred the two extra points on the selection, but we shall see if i’ve got that right.

I don’t like how Sizing C jumps, esp under an inexperienced pilot now. Theinval was short given the time off I thought and i’d want to see some evidence of what ability remains after his last three efforts. Western Miller is now on a career high mark but dotted up LTO. Proper soft was a niggle if it keeps raining, and again 7/2 or so didn’t seem big enough. But I wont fall off my seat if he takes it. Dream Bolt is is 11 returning after a break, and is 0/11, 3p since turning 10. I was happy to leave him.

The main danger may be Court Duty  who looks progressive but he needs to step forward again, being out of the weights a tad also. His RPR LTO was 125, the selections was 140 and his TS figure was higher. Good to Soft is fine for him, i’m unsure on softer. Again it was a tricky one around 4s.

Maybe taking the 3x 4s shots on will prove foolish but I thought at 6s the selection, based on his win LTO, was a shade overpriced, and he’s gone to 7s as I write.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

NONE today.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

2.00 Uttox – Da Dou Ron Ron

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

5.20 Uttox – Day of Roses

Trainers to follow

2.00 Uttox – Mrs Davies (11/1< guide)

4.10 Uttox – Alfies Choice (11/1< guide)

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

4.10 Uttox – Theatrebar

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway + Goodwood 2019 

Trainer/Jockey Pointers: READ HERE>>>

Some ‘big race trends’ for next week will follow asap.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. I believe that was 26 favs winning from 57 races yesterday with another 17 placing.
    Thats a 45% win rate and a 75% place rate. I don’t think I’ve seen numbers that high for a Saturday before and for 8 meetings too.

    1. Randomness at work.

      With a couple of exceptions the Saturday racing was a bit average. However we do have ”Glorious” Goodwood coming up this week and so trainers do have an excuse.

      Frankie looked a bit puffed after the win on Enable. Getting old mate! He trudged his way into the weighing room with his saddle after. He needs a couple of days off.
      I wonder if the will tire later in the week at Goodwood?

  2. 3 winners from S1 yesterday , Dakota Gold 2pts @ 21.65 after R4’s, Raising Sand 3.5pts @ 9.60 and Arletta Star 2pts @ 3.60 on what was otherwise a very poor day. It’s been famine since my post about S1 let’s hope this was the start of a feast.

  3. Lambourn
    No bet
    Ed Walker is quite sweet on Stormy Antarctic in the 3.40 Munich at 3/1 at the moment, ran 2nd in the race last year, and the forecast rain is a plus.
    May back it but decission will be close to the off and check what price it is and any N/Rs.
    Colin.

    1. He has been in good form this month. I will report back with Lambourn trainer performance at the end of this month.

  4. Systems selection:

    Bin Suroor 2YO maiden etc – 5.05 Pon, Al Mureib, 1 point win. 15/8 at present.

    1. Thankyou for posting these Martin, lovely winner yesterday! Keep up the good work.
      Best wishes, Tom.

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