Members Daily Post: 26/07/19 (complete: 9.06)

Test tip x1, Nick’s Tips x1,Section 1 (complete), test zone, Really Super, Sat trends shortlists

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Thirsk

4.30 – Royal Flag   (all Hc’s) 22/1

5.40 – Suitcase ‘N’ Taxi   (micro dist)  H3 G3 11/2

 

Chepstow

5.45 – Fitzrovia   (all Hc’s)  w2  ES+ 15/2 S3A

6.45 – Quantum Dot   (all Hc’s)  ES+  8/1 S3A

7.45 – Tasman Sea   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 22/1 S3A

8.45 – Crindle Carr   (m class) G3 20/1 

 

Newmarket

7.10 – Almashriq   (all Hc’s) 14,30  H1 2/1 

 

Ascot…………None

York…………None

 

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JUMPS

Uttoxeter

2.35 – Annie Angel   (nov HcCh)  w1  w2  ES+ H1 2/5 S3A

3.45 – Vancouver   (m class) I3 13/2 

4.55 – Stop Talking   (m runs) I3 8/1 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/83, 27p +32.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/4,3p,+6)

3.45 Uttox – Mercian King – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 13/2 (others) PU

that’s all from me, 08.53, write up on the way…

A reminder that this TEST is me delving into handicap chases shorter than my ‘specialism’ of 2m7f+ above, where over time i’m proven, albeit always room for improvement. I’ve every confidence in my ability long term in all handicap chases, but I need to prove it over time…

This is more head than heart albeit if the Amy Murphy Uttoxeter double comes in, then happy days! 7s or so is too big for this one here and he does just look solid against this lot. He will have badly needed the run LTO over hurdles, with a 10lb claimer on, and he’s twice won on his second start back after a 180+ break. IF he got back to the form of his two runs at Worcester in October he’d have every chance here. His form is solid with those two races in particular working out well, 12 subsequent winners between them. I suspect the break has done him the world of good as he had a busy time of it last year. Jack should sit in 3rd here, tracking Johnson and Scholfield, and will be in a no excuses position if good enough. This mark of 117 should be fine given he was beaten on the nod off 119 four starts back. He gets a first time TT also which may eek out some more improvement. He just looked too big.

Of the rest… well it’s open enough but there are plenty of monkeys. New Millennium gets 1st blinkers this time and will try and make all. The 1st CP lit him up LTO and he could over-race here, or they do the trick. He’s yet to win LH and did jump out to his right LTO – that makes 5/2 short enough to my eyes. But he’s young and arrives in form, as does his yard. Tikkinthebox won’t give him an easy time of it on the front though and with any luck they will both do too much. He’s got some questions to answer now after his last three runs for me, especially in the context of his price, for all that at his best he could win this.

Vancouver is a monkey but he’s unexposed over fences. You’re rolling the dice as to whether he’s on a going day I think- if he is, then he’d be in with a chance also. But just a few too many niggles with him, and he will make STD work for his fee. Utility needs more albeit the fall LTO wasn’t really his fault – but even on his best runs I think there would be a couple stronger in here.

That leaves Malengen who, along with New Millennium, and the selection, i’d have as the most likely winners of this. I didn’t think he was overpriced but he’s unexposed and did run well LTO. He gets a change of headgear to help him put it all in -another in the monkey category and he was niggled at times LTO. Tom may try and be aggressive on him also – I never understand putting 1st blinkers on horse and holding them up. His jumping was scratchy LTO also but he’s entitled to be learning still. However he will need to step up here.

I thought The King was overpriced, and will pay to find out.

 

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Review… if you’re going to be wrong, being very wrong is the way to do it! 🙂 Not much to say there. A shame the meeting wasn’t called off after the first! The selection clearly hasn’t run his race for whatever reason, but it may not have mattered. He didn’t prove to be value, he didn’t race up with the pace (held up last!) and the fav did it well. Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Moving on. 

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

6.30 York – Our Little Pony – 1 point EW – 11/1 (betfS/PP) 10/1 (gen) (1/5,5p x7 bookies) UP , -2

that’s all from Nick today, 08.05 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

2.00 Uttox – The Lincoln Lawyer

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

2.00 Uttox – Ourmullion

Trainers to Follow

2.00 Uttox – The Lincoln Lawyer

4.55 Uttox – Silk Run

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

REALLY SUPER…

She runs in the 4.55 Uttoxeter and i’ll be off there for the afternoon. It’s only 1h 50 min train from Liverpool, with the station next to the track. In any case I can’t miss her win! 🙂

In all seriousness I fully expect her to bolt up, if running her race. It’s a big drop in class and she’ll have come on from LTO (if nothing else, her jumping brain will be better tuned now) Of course that makes the disappointment worse if it’s not to be. She’s the best horse in the race and for me has the most in hand/class. Had things panned out differently LTO she’d have won, beating 130 animals and scooping 12.5k in the process. She arrives in superb form, as does her trainer after a well-deserved double at Yarmouth (having hit the barn door plenty in recent days). They did all look superb when visiting the yard last weekend and maybe a run is on it’s way. I think she’ll turn out to be a mid 130s horse, if not better, but she has to go and prove it. Dicky should try and lead, with us tracking him in second. I doubt Bryony will be too far away. I think her mount (the fav) is clearly the one to beat. But he beat horses averaging 109 LTO. If we don’t run our race, she should capitalise.

Anyway, fingers crossed! If she hits the front at any point, game over. Sadly she isn’t much of a price but that’s always the cherry on the cake. I’ll be gutted if she doesn’t beat this lot.

Do Note that i’ll put up a holding post for Sat, but all content from me likely to follow first thing Saturday morning. 

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Big Race Trends Thursday 

Two big handicaps this Sat from Ascot and York: READ HERE>>>

Shortlists/trainer quals etc now below >>>

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Galway + Goodwood 2019 

Trainer/Jockey Pointers: READ HERE>>>

Some ‘big race trends’ for next week will follow asap.

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Saturday Trends ‘Shortlists’ 

Ascot: The International 

Trainers (21 years, with runners…)

  • Raising Sand / Lush Life
  • Makzeem / Blue Mist
  • Lake Volta / Vale of Kent
  • Admiralty / Burnt Sugar
  • Zap

Trends Shortlist 

Looking at 6yo<, OR not lower than LTO, had run 8f+, had run at Ascot, Not 4yo+ race LTO…

That leaves 9… Rip Orf / Makzeem / Fanaar (3yo) / Kaeso / Lush Life / Vale Of Kent / Alemaratalyoum / Island of Life / Zap

Those that carried 8-5-9-4, and had 4+ runs this season narrows that down to 6… Rip Orf / Kaeso / Lush Life / Alemaratalyoum / Island of Life (negs C1 LTO / 2 runs 90 days) / Zap 

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The SkyBet Dash

Trainers (15 years, with runners)

  • Staxton /Flying Pursuit / Golden Apollo / Hyperfocus
  • Growl / Brian The Snail / Paddy Power

Trends

Had ran over 6.5f+ in career, did not run over 5f LTO, 16/1< SP LTO….

Staxton / Golden Apollo / Muscika / Glenamoy Lad / Jawwaal

Running in a C2 LTO is a big positive… Staxton / Golden Apollo / Jawwaal

As per the stats the market has been a great guide, all winners in last decade sent off 12/1< SP.

Hopefully those pointers help you land on the winner or a nice priced place horse or three 🙂

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    York
    6.00 Amadeus Grey BOG 11/1
    6.30 Orien’s Bow BOG 14/1
    8.00 Tadaawol BOG 12/1
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    Colin

  2. My Nap of the day is….No, not Really Super….although I have backer her before the big money comes on.

    It is 4.45 Ascot, Arecibo, 11/2, 2 points each way.

    Systems selections:

    Bin Suroor 2YO Maidens etc – 7.40 Newmarket, Passion And Glory, 1 point win.

    Good luck.

  3. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    6.30 York Iconic Knight BOG 12/1
    7.10 Newmarket Baba Ghanouj BOG 11/4
    Thats it for today
    Colin

  4. Disappointing run by Really Super because I think, the jockey was far too wide on the last two bends giving away ground to the winner. When will jockeys realise that when you are 3 horses out on two conesutive bends you are giving away lengths in a race? You see this in lots of races, it is as if they never learn,

    1. That wasn’t the reason for defeat imo. Given how she jumped early I’m pleased he gave her daylight. The issue was a lack of pace which we knew and fact we didn’t make enough use of her. She never hit the front, Bryony kicked at right time, took 3L out of field game over. Frustrating. But that’s racing. I’ll be annoyed if in a small field we are not more aggressive in the future. Her shoddy jumping was due to not going quick enough for her. I’d be surprised if we didn’t try and make all next time in such conditions. Or she needs a better race, bigger field and stronger pace. She was just staying on at end but leader wasn’t stopping having crawled and kicked. Bloody infuriating. We will find key some point soon.

      1. When they lined up I thought that she would make the running but it all became a bit of a doddle around and the Bryony kicked at the right time. I am not a fan of your jockey but she did close and will pick up a prize and may be suited by a bigger field and a bit of a pace up front? Hopefully she stays fit and well and there are plenty of other chances for her.

        1. Oh she has a few nice pots in her. I’ve never ridden a racehorse but after 2f given how slow they were going I’d have just sent her on personally. It turned into a dash again and BF has ridden them all to sleep. Yea better class, bigger field, stronger pace is an option for sure. We will find the key but that’s two races she should have won and its rather frustrating. But she hasn’t. So that’s that. Onto the next run. She’ll be back in winners enclosure soon enough.

  5. For me she was never given a chance for the second race running and that is very disappointing. We move on….

  6. Understand your reasoning Josh but still think being 3 horses out on bends is not a plzce to be. Daylight can be found on the straight. Not sure that the jockey gave her the best of rides and not for the first time. Still, she might get a lower mark from this.

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