Members Daily Post: 25/07/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Southwell

11.55 –

Alf n Dor   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ H3  8/1 S3A UP

Mr Mafia   (m class)  w1 H1 I3 11/8  WON

12.30 – Stepover   (all Hc’s) 9/1

2.00 –

Sitron   (all Hc’s) 14/1

Enforcement   (m dist) 12/1

Buckeye Shan   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ H1 I3 7/2 S3A#

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FLAT

Sandown

5.00 – Oloroso   (all Hc’s)  I3 G3 5/2 

Yarmouth

2.05 –

Desert Fox   (all Hc’s)  w2  10/1 

Case Key   (micro age) 14/1

Newbury

5.30 – Kismat   (m age) 25/1

8.10 – In The Cove   (m runs)  w2 7/2 

Doncaster…………None

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/83, 27p +32.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

11.55 South – Wilberdragon – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) UP 15/2 

..as of 20.38, and 08.02 Thurs 

Video preview at bottom of post 

I could wait until the morning to tip this one but i’ve made up my mind and with any luck his price will hold until 7/8am… i’m sat here scratching my head as to why this LTO winner for us is 11/2… I wouldn’t have him bigger than 3s, if not a tad shorter… I thought i’d flick through this race and see the top 3 more closely matched price wise. That could mean i’ve missed something but i’m not sure what…

Either of the two above him could bolt up again, and you’d fancy Mr Mafia of the pair… but while they were impressive LTO both of their races fell apart/turned out to be full off dross… and in theory this should be much tougher. Mr Mafia is 0/6,2p when rated 111+ and aged 10, he’s not certain to follow up – and i’m not really sure what he achieved LTO. His LTO Inform rating isn’t much higher than the selection and the selection is top on the HRB LTO ratings, as some sort of guide ‘from the numbers’. Given how the race panned out i’m not sure he had to do much to win really. It was impressive and maybe he’ll bolt up again, but the selection should give him plenty to think about…

Wilberdragon won for us well enough LTO, getting better the further he went and he wasn’t stopping come the line. It was a more competitive race also given most of those in behind appear to have run their race, including the in-form 2nd. That was his first run after a wind op and it’s not impossible he comes on for that run a bit and he has hacked up over fences off 118 before, so I won’t blame his revised mark of 117 here. He should race up there, and may even try to dictate, he jumps well, won’t mind the ground and the trainer has some solid track stats, as he does when teaming up with Coleman here. There could be a bit more to come from him and i just thought 11/2 was a tad insulting. He will take some shrugging off if he’s in the same form which means his market rivals will have more pressure on their jumping late on than they did LTO. That could help.

It does look between the top three and I didn’t like any of the others. Alf N Dor is 0/17,4p beyond 2m4f and does have stamina to prove, and he may not want it this quick either. Even at his best he’d need to step up a bit to get competitive, and would need the other to falter. Always possible but a few too many niggles at 8s. I suspect he’ll be sharp enough though, the market may guide. If one of the other two beats me, so be it. I wasn’t that close!

That will be all for tips from me on Thursday.

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Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/4,3p,+6)

None. 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

2.05 Yarm – Kraka – 1 point EW – 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (gen) UP, -2

that’s all for today, as of 08.06 

4.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

11.25 South – Diligent

2.30 South – O Maonlai

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

11.55 South – Alf N Dor (8/1<)

2.00 South – Buckeye Shan (8/1<)

Jockeys/Chasers

11.25 South – Tanrudy

11.55 South – Alf N Dor

LTO winning hurdlers

2.00 South – Buckeye Shan

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

11.25 South – Grand Coureur

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Handicap Chase System Starting Pointers (10/1< best)

11.55 South – Home Place

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

12.30 South – Pershing / The Vollan

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW x2 …

Big Race Trends Thursday 

Two big handicaps this Sat from Ascot and York: READ HERE>>>

Shortlists/trainer quals etc to follow

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Galway + Goodwood 2019 

Trainer/Jockey Pointers: READ HERE>>>

Some ‘big race trends’ for next week will follow asap.

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Video preview of 11.55 South… I aimed for 5 mins, ended up at 7, i’m getting there!! 🙂