Members Daily Post: 23/07/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone, Micro Monday, Tracker Tuesday

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Musselburgh

3.00 –

Gabrial The Tiger    (micro class)  w1 H1 I3 G1 4/1 S1 S4

Donnellys Rainbow    (m class)  w1 6/1 

4.00 – Skeetah    (m TJC)  G3 18/1 

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JUMPS

Southwell

5.40 – Larkhall    (m runs) 28/1 

6.40 – Red Inca    (m class) H3 I3 3/1 

8.10 – Thibault    (m dist and age)  w1 I3 5/2 

8.40 –

Theatre Act    (m age)  w1  ES+ H1 I3 4/5 S3A#

Ridgeway Pearl    (m runs) 66/1 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/82, 27p +33.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

None, no C4+ at Southwell. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/4,3p,+6)

None. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

None on Tuesday. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

6.10 South – Le Musee

Jockeys/Chasers

6.40 South – Mariners Moon

LTO winning hurdlers

8.40 South – Theatre Act

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Micro Monday

What with the superb win of Casablanca Mix in the Summer Plate I thought I’d have a look at Nicky Henderson’s handicap chasers, and see if there’s a decent micro or ‘way in’ to follow.

Before that it’s worth focussing on Casablanca Mix briefly – I always think there’s some value in hammering home the positives/why selected, as it makes finding similar types in the future more likely.

… she was unexposed over fences (10th chase run, only 4th in handicaps) with the promise of more to come. She arrived on the back of a decent win, where watching her Aintree race back both indicated what a superb jumper she’d become (esp under pressure/asked for a big one) and that this step up in trip would suit (got outpaced turning for home, stayed on well). While she wasn’t a front runner/assured to race up there, it was clear she wasn’t a hold up chaser. Working out whether she was well handicapped – well given her profile/age, you’d assume there was progress to come until proven otherwise. She had ‘hot form’ which helped – the Aintree race had worked out well, and the effort at Hunt in Jan was decent. She had to prove up to big fields but hadn’t had many goes. She was trained by a master, who appears to be targeting these summer pots now (ie Brave Eagle who also won for us, just). The days rest, given the race, suggested this had been the plan. Given all that how she was put in at 10s/11s I’ve no idea.

Back to Nicky…

Since the start of 2014, in all standard handicap chases…

298 bets / 34 wins / 97p / 11.41% sr / -61 SP / +5 BFSP / AE 0.81

 

  • Class: LISTED > 28 bets / 7 wins / 11p / 25% sr / +39 SP / +78 BFSP / AE 1.75

 

  • ALL, Sent off 11/1 or bigger SP: 107 bets / 3 wins / 19p / 2.8% sr / -43 SP / AE 0.86

 

The market would appear to be a decent guide with Henderson’s chasers.

From now on I’ll focus on those sent off 10/1 or shorter SP

All 10/1< SP: 191 bets / 31 wins / 78p / 16% sr / -18 SP / AE 0.86

 

Positive Pointers

  • 1 run in prev 90 days: 71 bets / 14 wins / 32p / 20% sr / +22 SP / +34 BFS / AE 1.14
  • 7 year olds: 48 bets / 12 wins / 26p / 25% sr / +23 SP / +33 BFSP / AE 1.34
  • 3-9 runs all handicaps: 95 bets / 22 wins / 40p / 23% sr / +18 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 1.15
  • 0 runs this ‘season’: 44 bets / 12 wins / 23p / 27% sr / +13 SP / +20 BFSP / AE 1.33
  • Won at least once last two runs: 57 bets / 13 wins / 24p / 23% sr / +28 SP / +40 BFSP / AE 1.31

 

Handicap Chases restricted to 5yo+

121 bets / 24 wins / 49p / 20% sr / +17 SP / +32 BFSP / AE 1.04

  • Age 6 or 7: 42 bets / 13 wins / 27p / 31% sr / +28 SP / +33 BFSP / AE 1.36
  • Runners at Aintree: 11 bets / 5 wins / 8p / +27 BFSP
  • 12+ runs in handicaps: 28 bets / 3 wins / 7p / 10% sr / -7

 

Micro Angle

  • Nicky Henderson
  • Handicap Chases (standard, NOT novice hncps)
  • Restricted to 5yo+
  • 0-11 runs in all handicaps
  • 10/1< SP

93 bets / 21 wins / 42p / 23% sr / +24 SP / +36 BFSP/ AE 1.15

  • 8 year olds: 3/34, 10p, -10 BFSP
  • Excluding 8 year olds: 59 bets / 18 wins / 32p / 31%s r / +38 SP / +46 BFSP / AE 1.42

 

The placed stats for 8 year olds are fine but there is some logic I think for why they may underperform… with the 6 or 7 year olds they are likely progressive, and the handicapper may not have them yet. That may not be the case with 8 year olds, who may be at a ceiling, open to attack from younger legs, and need to come down again. They could well be better handicapped when aged 9, and now with more experience open to running well in bigger races. I wouldn’t ignore 8 year olds as such, more so a horse by horse basis, if using the angle as a ‘way in’. There may be nothing to it all bar bad luck! In general focussing on his 6 or 7 year olds isn’t a bad starting point moving forwards. 

 

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Tracker Tuesday

An eye-catcher from last week for the tracker…

Tidal Watch – 5YO Bay Gelding / Jonjo O’Neill 

This horse ran in the 4.30 on Sat – the 2m5f Novice Handicap Chase at Market Rasen and looks to be one to keep onside, even if he is trained by the ‘inconsistent’ Jonjo O’Neill team. Ahem. He was making chase debut here and ran well – in general he jumped well, esp given his inexperience. He’s 5/12,8p over hurdles, his best form on a decent surface and over 16f. On this rain softened ground and over 2m6f (a few extra yards due to rail movements), and given his inexperience, it’s maybe no surprise they were very patient with him out the back. The race looked to be slowly run to my eyes, turning into a relative sprint 3 from home. Junior looked anxious not to throw the kitchen sink at him late on, having moved up menacingly – I do wonder if he just ran out off puff, esp in the going. In any case he knows how to win and this was a run of promise, arguably the right two horses in-front. It suggests he could be a better chaser than hurdler and on TV looked plenty big enough. A firmer surface could be important and it will be interesting to see what they do with him trip wise – the jury is out as to how far he’ll stay over fences and he is flat bred. Provided the yard don’t bugger him up, you’d be surprised if he didn’t have a few chase wins in him this summer, on better ground. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Hi all, a rather late request if I may! Off to Chelmsford races tonight; if anybody has anything worth backing please let me know!! Josh I imagine too late for a ‘through the card’?

    1. I like Murhib in the 8.50. He had no run LTO and the jockey gave up a way out. Frankie has two, 7.20 Lady lawyer and Maximum Effect in the 7.50. In the 6.50 Continiere looks solid. They should get you the beer money and the Prosecco for the Essex ladies.

      Good luck.

      1. It’s not just Essex Ladies who like Prosecco Martin, ahem! 🙂

        Doug…having had a flick with my ‘expert’ AW eyes, all the usual caveats…

        5.20 Red Snapper EW – 12/1
        5.50 – Hector Loza – 9/4
        6.20 – Alkaraama – 11/4
        6.50 – Cantiniere – 7/2
        7.20 – Lady Lawyer 9/4 (Shining Sea 33/1 EW for interest maybe)
        7.50 – Ghaziyah – Evens
        8.20 – Indian Sounds 5/1
        8.50 – Joyetick – 13/2

        Have fun!

        1. I never said ‘just’.

          I will nap Murhib in the 6.50 at 6/1, 1.5 points each way, whilst the price is there.

        2. Maybe a small yankee on Ryan Moore’s four rides – he has a very good record at Chemsford. And a saver on Percy Prosecco in the 4.30 at Musselburgh, of course!

        3. Thanks so much Josh and all! Classic betting day for me. A nice ew ACCA on the five shorties, 4 winners and 1 nowhere! Standard! Thanks again!!

    2. 8.50 Mark Tompkins’ last two runners worthy of a second look. Velvet Vision 11/1 and Ness of Brodgar 22/1. The latter has been tipped by the Racing Post Newmarket correspondent.

      1. Good shout, would make sense wanting to go out with a winner so may be worth small nibble track side just in case!

    3. 6.50 Philamundo5/1 twice a course winner better over a mile than than 7f lto will hopefully get the breaks as finishes late

      7.50 Ghaziyah a bit short at 5/4 but will be better price than should be because of Frankie on 2nd favourite
      Varmint22

  2. Well done to Nick for last nights winner – 13/2 SP, I had £2.50 ew from a £5 free Sky bet so thank you, the break might have done you good Nick
    Harry

  3. Josh, being a fan of micro-angles, I am very interested in the new Monday feature.
    Will you be flagging up the qualifiers?

    1. Hi Johnny… yep – it seems the three biggest responses from the survey for what people may want more of were more micro focus, addition of eye catchers, and the big race trends stuff just generally seems popular (got Goodwood/Galway upcoming, but week to week I should be trying to do at least 2 Sat races)…
      But yep back to micros… trying to do the less is more, so one micro angle a week – I want to initially focus on chasing, given my tipping focus, as in theory that work will make me more successful on that front, as well as with any luck landing on the odd decent stand alone micro angle.

      I plan to re-fresh the test zone, and gear that towards chasers etc – I don’t think many use them to follow blind, and that isn’t advised, and only around 10% of respondents use them as ‘starting points’ – in any case that could be a ‘less is more’ section.

      But yep where it says ‘micro’ , those are saves. I’ve got Vaughan’s saved and now that one above. Not all the ‘pointers’ obviously – i’ll endeavour to pull them together in a monthly PDF that you can do what you want with etc – and I need to ponder how to better present some of the content – whether to have a sep ‘monday micro’ and Tuesday tracker post that , that files under a sep heading when logged into members club on the dashboard. That may be more beneficial.
      and again with the eye-catchers.

      There’s enough flat content imo, which allows me to focus on all things chasing – Section 1, Nick’s tips, big race trends/big meeting notes.

      Joh

        1. OK, my mistake. Good job I did not know before I backed it. I will stick to the script from now on.

          1. That was only his 6th runner in a Beginners Chase since start of 2014, was his 3rd winner mind. Very micro! 🙂

  4. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    3.45 Kodiline BOG 3/1
    3.45 Majdool BOG 12/1
    4.15 Atletico BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    Colin

  5. Hi Josh, read your stats on Henderson which I found quite interesting but I wondering if you could not dig deeper. For instance, there must be certain courses where Henderson does very well and tohers where he is not successful at all. Also he does engage a number of different jockeys and I wonder if there is any milage in looking at who rode the winners you have found with the courses. Just a thought. Gordon

    1. Hi Gordon… I have been through all of those points you make 🙂 I tend to try and only highlight positives angles really rather than highlight every singly breakdown /data point that I could do. I should really ensure I have a checklist for my whizz through HRB system digging etc but I’m fairly experienced at it now. On this example it will be simply be the case that the numbers were not significant in other areas for me to bother highlighting.
      If you look at the 5yo+ pointers before the micro, Aintree was the only track within that which had 5 or more winners in the period.
      I do try and go through everything I can think of, so that when I do highlight X above you can have some confidence that it was the best I could find, to my eyes anyway! 🙂
      I don’t like to highlight negatives, esp when the numbers are small. I don’t see much point in highlighting a track that is 0/8,2p say, as that isn’t significant, and overall track stats etc are available everywhere you look. I don’t like the idea of someone using a pointer to put them off a pick, preferring the positive pointers as a way in or to give you added confidence. But always happy to ponder and fine tune.
      What is detailed above is after 90 mins or so of digging into his chase stats but I may have missed something!
      Josh

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