Members Daily Post: 22/07/19 (complete: 10.25)

Micro Monday, Nick’s Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Ayr

2.00 –

Cupids Arrow   (micro class and runs)  w2 I1 7/1 S6  UP

Tadaany   (m class) I3 12/1 

3.05 –

Epona   (m runs) I3 G3 9/1 

Cardaw Lily   (m class) I3 25/1 

4.10 –

Gworn   (4yo+) 12/1 

Ventura Royale   (m –class) 10/1 

Rosemay   (4yo+)  w1 H3 G3 6/1  WON 13/2 

5.15 – Golden Jeffrey   (m class) 11/1 

 

Beverley

7.00 – Afandem    (3yo+)  ES+  H3 I1 4/1 S3A# UP

7.30 –

Ideal Candy   (3yo+,m class) 14  12/1

Bollin Ted   (3yo+)  ES+  G3 5/1 S3A WON 5/1>7/2 

8.00 –

Lamloon   (all Hc’s,m TJC and dist)  w2 15/2  3rd

Al Erayg   (3yo+)  ES+ I3 G3 8/1 S3A# UP

8.30 –

Red Seeker   (3yo+,m age)  ES+  G1 9/2 S3A WON 9/2>15/8

Relight My Fire   (3yo+,m runs)  ES+ I3 G3 7/1 S3A# UP

Muqarred   (3yo+)  14 18/1 UP

9.00 – Brutalab   (3yo+,m age)  ES+ H3 I1 G1 10/3 S1 S3A# S4 UP

 

Windsor

6.50 –

More Than Likely   (m age) H3 I3 G1 5/1 S4 UP

Always A Drama   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 G3 10/1 S4 WON 10/1>7/1

7.50 –

Livvys Dream   (all Hc’s)  w2 H3 I1 8/1  S6

Gallic   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 G3 9/2 S3A# S4 2nd 

8.50 – Dependable    (all Hc’s) 25/1 

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JUMPS

Cartmel

4.25 – My Renaissance   (all Hc’s) 5/2 

5.00 – Dr Robin   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  ES+ H1 5/2 S3A WON 5/2>6/4

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/82, 27p +33.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

None, that Cartmel chase isn’t very appealing.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 1/4,3p,+6)

None. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

8.00 Bev – I Am A Dreamer – 1 point EW – 6/1 (bet365/BV) 11/2 (gen)  UP

8.50 Winds – Seductive Moment – 1 point EW – 9/1  WON 13/2 ,  +8.415

1/2, 1p, +6.415 

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that’s all for today from Nick, as of 08.10 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D McCAin

4.25 Cart – Ink Master 

5.00 Cart – William of Orange 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

5.00 Cart – Dr Robin

2.45 Cart – Point n Shoot 

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<) 

2.45 Cart – Cairnshill 

Handicap chase System Starting Points 

4.25 Cart – Jeu De Mots

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Micro Monday 

To follow, by lunchtime. I’ll do my best to get into the habit of doing some trainer/jockey research on a Monday morning, all geared towards handicap chases for now – I have the Tim Vaughan angle from last week, and I need to dig out the summer chase stats I pulled together – as with such research I should be highlighting the quals etc within section 4 (test zone). 

I do think the week could do with some more structure from me at times… so we could have Micro Monday, Tracker Tuesday, Big Race Trends Thursday 🙂 In addition to all the usual daily stuff above. 

So, Micro Monday below… 

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Micro Monday

What with the superb win of Casablanca Mix in the Summer Plate I thought I’d have a look at Nicky Henderson’s handicap chasers, and see if there’s a decent micro or ‘way in’ to follow.

Before that it’s worth focussing on Casablanca Mix briefly – I always think there’s some value in hammering home the positives/why selected, as it makes finding similar types in the future more likely.

… she was unexposed over fences (10th chase run, only 4th in handicaps) with the promise of more to come. She arrived on the back of a decent win, where watching her Aintree race back both indicated what a superb jumper she’d become (esp under pressure/asked for a big one) and that this step up in trip would suit (got outpaced turning for home, stayed on well). While she wasn’t a front runner/assured to race up there, it was clear she wasn’t a hold up chaser. Working out whether she was well handicapped – well given her profile/age, you’d assume there was progress to come until proven otherwise. She had ‘hot form’ which helped – the Aintree race had worked out well, and the effort at Hunt in Jan was decent. She had to prove up to big fields but hadn’t had many goes. She was trained by a master, who appears to be targeting these summer pots now (ie Brave Eagle who also won for us, just). The days rest, given the race, suggested this had been the plan. Given all that how she was put in at 10s/11s I’ve no idea.

Back to Nicky…

Since the start of 2014, in all standard handicap chases…

298 bets / 34 wins / 97p / 11.41% sr / -61 SP / +5 BFSP / AE 0.81

 

  • Class: LISTED > 28 bets / 7 wins / 11p / 25% sr / +39 SP / +78 BFSP / AE 1.75

 

  • ALL, Sent off 11/1 or bigger SP: 107 bets / 3 wins / 19p / 2.8% sr / -43 SP / AE 0.86

 

The market would appear to be a decent guide with Henderson’s chasers.

From now on I’ll focus on those sent off 10/1 or shorter SP

All 10/1< SP: 191 bets / 31 wins / 78p / 16% sr / -18 SP / AE 0.86

 

Positive Pointers

  • 1 run in prev 90 days: 71 bets / 14 wins / 32p / 20% sr / +22 SP / +34 BFS / AE 1.14
  • 7 year olds: 48 bets / 12 wins / 26p / 25% sr / +23 SP / +33 BFSP / AE 1.34
  • 3-9 runs all handicaps: 95 bets / 22 wins / 40p / 23% sr / +18 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 1.15
  • 0 runs this ‘season’: 44 bets / 12 wins / 23p / 27% sr / +13 SP / +20 BFSP / AE 1.33
  • Won at least once last two runs: 57 bets / 13 wins / 24p / 23% sr / +28 SP / +40 BFSP / AE 1.31

 

Handicap Chases restricted to 5yo+

121 bets / 24 wins / 49p / 20% sr / +17 SP / +32 BFSP / AE 1.04

  • Age 6 or 7: 42 bets / 13 wins / 27p / 31% sr / +28 SP / +33 BFSP / AE 1.36
  • Runners at Aintree: 11 bets / 5 wins / 8p / +27 BFSP
  • 12+ runs in handicaps: 28 bets / 3 wins / 7p / 10% sr / -7

 

Micro Angle

  • Nicky Henderson
  • Handicap Chases (standard, NOT novice hncps)
  • Restricted to 5yo+
  • 0-11 runs in all handicaps
  • 10/1< SP

93 bets / 21 wins / 42p / 23% sr / +24 SP / +36 BFSP/ AE 1.15

  • 8 year olds: 3/34, 10p, -10 BFSP
  • Excluding 8 year olds: 59 bets / 18 wins / 32p / 31%s r / +38 SP / +46 BFSP / AE 1.42

 

The placed stats for 8 year olds are fine but there is some logic I think for why they may underperform… with the 6 or 7 year olds they are likely progressive, and the handicapper may not have them yet. That may not be the case with 8 year olds, who may be at a ceiling, open to attack from younger legs, and need to come down again. They could well be better handicapped when aged 9, and now with more experience open to running well in bigger races. I wouldn’t ignore 8 year olds as such, more so a horse by horse basis, if using the angle as a ‘way in’. There may be nothing to it all bar bad luck! In general focussing on his 6 or 7 year olds isn’t a bad starting point moving forwards. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. NAP table on Sky racing results upto the end of saturday industry racing publications
    Racing Post
    RP ratings – 25.38
    Post Data + 11.79
    Spotlight – 1.81
    The Punt -24.81
    The North + 7.98
    Weekender -29.35
    Sporting Life – 30.08
    ATR Laurence Taylor -13.44
    Racing and Football outlook Andrew Mount -34.59
    The Irish Field Rory Delargy – 41 he his 50% of Racing Consultants tipping service.
    All above – 180.69 so far this year and these tipsters are here to help the punter of coarse they are not!
    This is just a small selection from the Naps table.
    Colin.

    1. The life of a napping tipster haha. Tough old game and a tough old year. Not sure it’s good for many of them professionally to be doing so badly, albeit of course when multiple publications have links to bookie sign up offers, which one of standard models is to make 30% of losses as profit over life time of account, naturally right to be suspicious. Suspect many of those to SP maybe which also shows how hard it is, and suspect many are just not doing very well, as simple as that. Also just how difficult it is to ‘nap’ and pick what you think is best bet. They will also suffer from what could be fake value, given some of the followings they have etc and impact on price. Suspect a few do fine getting prices on their picks before publication haha.

    2. But most punters are not on the ball re profit and loss of tipsters and so continue to follow them. The most disingenuous thing in horse racing is on Sky Racing (ATR) when they say ‘Hugh Taylor is on fire’ when he has a winner when in fact he is minus 28.75 in 2019 to date.

  2. Beverley will probably good/soft tomorrow been tipping it down for 3-4 hours and still coming down might even be soft

      1. yes i might have been a bit premature there was a prolonged downpopur last night but there is strong warm drying winds this morning and a hot sunny afternoon forecast so could well be proper good ground but with the amount of rain that fell still can’t see any firm in the going.

  3. COLINS BETS
    Ayr
    2.30 Popping Corks BOG 13/2
    3.35 Forever A Lady BOG 9/1
    3.35 Retirement Beckons BOG 9/2
    4.10 Chinese Spirit BOG 10/3
    Cartmel
    2.45 Justatenner BOG 3/1
    5.30 Canford Thompson BOG 11/4
    Beverley
    8.00 Saisons D’Or BOG 9/2
    8.30 Relight My Fire BOG 7/1
    ELITE BETS
    Beverley
    7.30 Ideal Candy BOG 15/2
    8.00 Kylie Rules BOG 6/1
    8.30 Red Seeker BOG 5/1
    8.50 Windsor Leo Davinci BOG 7/2
    Colin

  4. Ayr through the card for a bit of fun with prices taken all bog except 3-05,
    1-30 Dick Datchery 8-1
    2-00. Cupids Arrow 7-1
    2-30. Hard Solution 4-1
    3-05. Epona 11-1, Cardaw Lily 37-1
    3-35. Forever A Lady 8-1
    4-10. Rosemay 7-1
    4-45. Windsor Cross 8-1
    5-15. Tawseef 5-2

  5. Another good weekend for Frankie Dettori. How long has he got left in the game? Two to three years? Who takes his place? Oisin Murphy? Not Ryan Moore due to his lack of personality? Food for thought. The same may be the case with jumps racing with Ruby Walsh calling it a day?

    1. I think he’s said he will ride into his 50s all being well! So at least 2 more years – I mean he looks after himself and can pick and choose – suspect may depend on amount of G1 firepower he has to play with as that’s what sustains him I think. Yea personality wise then Oisin is a replacement on that front, just then a case of how far he can go in his riding career but he has plenty of character for sure, and is likeable. But you have to ride the big race winners etc.
      We’d best enjoy the next few years – Ruby is irreplaceable riding wise but we will see plenty more of him on TV, and his character etc – so that will be fun. A decent group of younger jockeys around – I suppose Dicky, and Davy may not have too too many years left in them at top level, but we shall see. I think Harry S, Harry C, STD, Hughes, the bowens, Nico etc will be around for a long time to come.

    2. Oisin Murphy is the one for me this 23 year old is very confident fantastic rider at the top level for one so young whilst remaing very humble and funny when giving interviews.
      Provided he can keep away from drugs, this is a problem for a few jockeys for it helps to keep their waight down and Frankie as been caught twice in his carear doing them and he lost his job with the boys in blue over it.
      Ryan Moore would rather be anywhere than in front of a camera, guess he his on the same line as Lester Piggott with his character.
      Colin.

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