Members Daily Post: 20/07/19 (complete: 09.13)

Nick’s tips x5, test tip x2, Section 1 (complete), Test zone,Trends shortlists,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Cartmel

2.30 – Codeshare   (all Hc’s,HcH)  w1  ES+  I3 4/1 S3A

3.05 –

Wells De Lune   (all Hc’s,HcH)  w1  ES+ H1 4/1 S3A

Constancio   (m dist)  w2 H3 I1 14/1 

Candy Burg   (all Hc’s,HcH)  ES+ 16/1 S2A S3A 

3.45 – Oksana   (all Hc’s) H3 10/3 

4.15 – Braavos   (all Hc’s) 11/1 

4.50 –

Pretty Miss Mahler   (m runs) 8/1 

Trafalgar Rock   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 10/1 S3A

 

Market Rasen

2.10 –

Longhouse Sale   (all Hc’s,m Hc deb)  w1  w2  ES+ H1 7/2 S3A

Valentino Dancer   (HcH)  w1 I3 14/1 

Competition   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 14/1 S3A

St Gallen   (HcH)  w1  w2 10/3 

Chef De Troupe   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  ES+  8/1 S3A

2.45 – Global Tour   (m class)  w1 H1 I1 10/3 

3.20 –

Ronava   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  ES+ 15/2 S3A

Gortroe Joe   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ 6/1 S3A

Value At Risk   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 

Trigger Nichol   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 14/1 S3A

3.55 –

Present Ranger   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  ES+ H3 2/1 S3A

Angel Of Harlem   (HcH)  w1 H1 I1 7/2 

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FLAT

Newbury

4.45 – Listen To The Wind   (all Hc’s) 14,30  w2  ES+ H3

 

Ripon

2.55 – Amadeus Grey   (micro class and runs) H3 I1 G3 9/2 S4

3.30 – Mutamaded   (m age) 3/1 

4.05 –

Star Shield   (m dist)  w1 H3 I1 11/4 

Storm Ahead   (m class)  w2  8/1 

Vive La Difference   (m class) G3 12/1 

4.40 –

Multellie   (m class) 18/1 

Appointed   (m class)  w2 H1 I1 6/1 S1 S6 

 

Haydock

8.00 – Arcavallo   (m age) 7/1 

 

Doncaster………..None

Newmarket…………None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/82, 27p +33.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(2m7f+, C4+ handicap chases) 

None. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 0/2,1p,-2)

3.20 MR –

# 1 Casablanca Mix – 1 point win – (bet365/lad) 9/1 (gen) 

#2 Van Gogh Du Granit – 1 point win – 18/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) 

that’s all for today’s tipping from me, as of 08.54, write up on the way…

Casablanca – she’s interesting given her unexposed profile and I thought her price was too big. She jumped immaculately at Aintree and should track the pace in here, of which there could be a fair amount. She promised much more to come LTO and Henderson has already picked up one big chase pot this summer for us. I can only think this has been the plan since her last run, where she suggested this trip and further would be ideal. The form is working out well with Indian Temple having won twice since, and that mares race effort at Huntingdon wasn’t too bad either a few starts back – the 2nd there doing rather well in The Grand National. She has form at the course and looked more interesting than most. In any case she just looked too big a price. There is more to come over fences, in handicaps, just a case of when she shows it. Hopefully today!

Van Gogh – I decided he’s just too big a price, I don’t know why he’s so big. Maybe this will be a case of going to the well one too many times and he’ll need a break after- but he hasn’t really run a bad race for ages. He’s ultra consistent and at this better level i’m not 100% convinced he sees out 3m+ strongly enough – he stays, but others seem to stay better. LTO he faded in the final two furlongs, possibly having done too much on the front end also. But he jumps, he gallops and he has course form. If he holds a handy enough position, a strongly run race at this trip may be ideal for him. There’s a chance the handicapper has him but this is only his 8th chase over here and a couple of his recent RPRs are still a shade bigger than this mark. Given the race set up, and his price, I thought he was worth a go. He’s just a solid chaser, and that may be enough today.

Of the rest… I can leave Skelton’s at the price given his inexperience in small fields. He may relish conditions but others have achieved more and he seems short enough. Henryville is interesting having bolted up a few days ago – that was maybe the time to get him – but this has no doubt been the plan. I’m not sure this new mark will stop him but throughout his career he has been inconsistent, he can be scrappy at his fences, he’s usually keen enough, can over-race, is held up, and he’s 11. That’s not the sort of profile I wish to be with consistently, even one from this crack Summer Plate trainer. He can beat me albeit he’s on the drift a tad. Whether this drop in trip will suit now is also a question, albeit the strong pace (on paper at least) should be ideal for him.

Pacific De Baune – i’ll mention him – I wonder if he’s in this to keep the weight down for my Henderson pick, but I could be wrong. He’s unexposed, there is more to come, but his inexperience, and for a big field test like this, just put me off. He was also a tad keen LTO in 1st headgear and having watched it back i’ve a niggle over his jumping when under pressure- he popped away very well left to his own devices, but the couple of times the jockey asked him for a big one, inc the last, he nearly capsized – I could be being overly smart here mind – he looks a nice prospect in the making but I decided against him today – he ‘could’ find this all a bit too much – he won’t be able to dawdle on the front end with all the time in the world this time.

If something else wins, so be it, I wasn’t close. I didn’t really like much else in this race at all and thought between the 5 mentioned above, two of them tipped.

 

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

3.05 Cartmel – Wells De Lune – 1.5pt win 4/1

3.20 MR – Casablanca Mix – 1pt e/w 17/2 4 places 1/5 (some 9/1 around with Lads and Betway)

5.15 Ripon – Dancingwithwolves – 1.5pt win 5/1

7.00 Haydock – Regal Mirage – 1pt e/w 8/1

7.45 Donc – Kaeso – 1pt e/w – 8/1 

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that’s all today from Nick, x5 tips in total. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

5.05 MR – Witness In Court

5.25 Cart – Birch Vale

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

2.30 Cart – Codeshare (8/1<)

3.05 Cart – Wells De Lune (8/1<)

3.20 MR -Henryville (8/1<)

Jockeys/Chasers

3.20 MR – Henryville

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

3.45 Cart – Mac Cennetig

4.15 Cart – Old Salt

4.50 Cart – Shaiyzar

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points 

3.45 Cart – Mac Cennetig

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.05 Cart – Constancio

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

SATURDAY Big Race Trends 

Market Rasen Summer Hurdle and Summer Plate Stats/Trend/Trainers : READ HERE>>>

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Trends ‘Shortlists’ 

Market Rasen 

Summer Hurdle

Trainers (have won race at least once/runners below..) 

  • Longhouse Sale
  • Chef De Troupe 
  • Competition 
  • Ingleby Hollow 
  • John Constable 

Looking at the stats in the report above… those that are Not GB bred, and had 0-1 win in handicap hurdles leaves just four…

Longhouse Sale / St Gallen / Grapevine / All Yours 

Looking at all 10/10 stats (exc odds/SP) leaves just one to hit all those boxes… (10/31,15p) … 

St Gallen 

 

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Summer Plate

Trainers (have won race at least once/runners below..) 

  • Gortroe Joe 
  • Ronava 
  • Henryville
  • More Bucks 
  • Trigger Nichol
  • Van Gogh Du Granit 
  • Value At Risk 
  • El Terremoto 

 

The 10/10 stats (exc odds/SP… all winners last 10 years sent off 12/1< shorter SP) … leaves…

Gortroe Joe / Pacific De Baune / Gone Platinum / Casablanca Mix / Royal Village / Darcy Ward / El Terremoto 

Casablanca Mix / Royal Village / Darcy ward hit the 9/10 stat – those that had max distance run in career between 24-27f. 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Colins bets, Elite bets and Lambourn
    Frustrating few days so many 2nds, today profitable
    Colins bets 1 winner and 3 2nds from 5 bets
    Elite 1 2nd and 1 loser
    Lambourn 1 winner 7/1 from 1 bet very strong word for this one from Ed Walker.
    put the frustration up early for down town tonight so my bets could be up a little later than normal hopefully not.
    Colin.

    1. The Ed Walker comments on the above winner on Friday were very positive. Ed is in good form and so look out for when Colin mentions his runners.

      Charlie Hills seems to have gone missing for a few days.

      1. Charles Hills back with a bang hopefully have noticed when he does not put up his views they rarely win and then they are often short in the betting.
        so far this month the 4 Lambourn trainers i follow have had win only 8 from 33 bets + 18.25 profit so an excellent return for free!

  2. Wells De Lune Cartmel 15:05 1.5pt win 4/1
    Casablanca Mix Market Rasen 15:20 1pt e/w 17/2 4 places 1/5 (some 9/1 around with Lads and Betway)
    Dancingwithwolves Ripon 17:15 1.5pt win 5/1
    Regal Mirage Haydock 19:00 1pt e/w 8/1
    Kaeso Doncaster 19:45 1pt e/w

  3. Off to haydock later today and any expert advice much appreciated 🙂

    Had a look through and quite fancy my boy Lewis (600) you’re my rock (630) teepee time (830) any help filling the gaps / offering alternatives would be cool.

    Cheers

    1. Hey… I’m out and about today so don’t have time to look sadly. If you give us a few days notice next time I’m always happy to have a flick through, time allowing. Have a great day. Soft ground horses to the fore I think.

  4. COLINS BETS
    2.45 M/R Global Tour BOG 10/3
    7.00 Haydock Regal Mirage BOG 7/1
    8.45 Doncaster Frequency Code BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    5.40 Doncaster Debawtry BOG 11/4
    Colin

  5. Lambourn busy day so far
    Charles Hills
    3.00 Newbury Khaadem BOG 7/1
    5.35 Newmarket Qutob BOG 4/1
    7.45 Doncaster Breath Of Air BOG 8/1
    8.45 Doncaster Autumn War BOG 3/1
    Ed Walker
    5.20 Newbury George William BOG 4/1
    7.45 Doncaster Came From The Dark BOG 5/1
    Jamie Osbourne and Richard Hughes not put their views up yet, so will put up later if anything
    Colin

  6. Nap of the Day – 5.20 Newbury, Cliffs Of Capri, 1 point each way, 13/2 about in several places now. Looks solid each way and should run on to challenge.

    Systems selection:

    Saeed Bin Suroor 2YO maidens, class 4 to 6, 6-7F.

    6.15 Doncaster, Tadreej, 5/1+ to win.

    Good luck.

  7. Mr Fizz, 3.05 Cartmel, is a runner for Ben’s Summer Stunners today. At 25/1 he is the outsider of the field and yet to win for his current trainer.

    Year to date – 3 winners from 9 runners at 7/2, 15/8 and 6/4.

    1. Problem with Mr Fizz is trainer change since November run back to Imogen Pickard. She hasn’t trained a winner since this horse in August 2015. 49 losers, 20 of them were Mr Fizz.

  8. Lambourn final update
    Jamie Osbourne
    3.40 Emten BOG 9/1
    Richard Hughes
    4.10 Newbury Sir Oliver BOG 11/1
    Thats it for today just of to the hardware shop for a new wheelbarrow, whistful thinking!!!
    Colin

  9. Morning,
    15:20 Market Rasen
    GONE PLATINUM 16/1 gen 1pt win
    SOLAR IMPULSE 28/1 gen 1pt win

    have to rush , so, no write ups sorry.

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    1. A nice winner yesterday Stewart after a lean streak. Well done on battling back to the winners enclosure.

    2. Well done Nick and Josh, doffed cap to all those who tipped it also, will be back hopefully tomorrow!

      1. Cheer Stewart much appreciated. You read that race yesterday well. You make your own luck in this game and a deserved winner.

  10. Looking at the going and races to select is as tricky as trying to make a selections so caution is advised . I was going to focus on Newbury but the going is soft so will give that a swerve …..just find a horse that acts on the going regardless of form would be my advice for what it is worth (judging from yesterdays results that is questionable!….had one winner and read races wrong so hope for better today)…. Will put a few more later if time allows.

    2.05 Nmkt. Atmospheric e/w

    I would not put anyone off backing the fav as they are 45% but personally prefer to look elsewhere and the selection looks ok to hit the frame and hopefully win..it is a close run thing with Incognito, Brazen Safa and the selection….the upside is that the selection is a shade faster on projected adjusted speed over 7f @ 37.43 mph…Incog = 37.27, Brazen = 37.29…I have Fromnowon @ 36.85…so very marginal….The downside to the selection is Cox is 0 from 7 in 2yo but I think the price of 8/1 is factored in so will take the chance of getting the place up at least……so why this race? Generally speaking, I like a puzzle to solve and it is better than doing a cross word, which I am useless at and more likely to win a bit of money in the process! But this race has some fascinating horses from a pedigree perspective at big prices…..Tinuviel, Junvieve from the Balding stable that does well with 2 yo here…Gonna Dancealot and Magnificia are also good in terms of pedigree so will be fascinating to see how they run and at big prices will probably have a dabble on all 4 of the bigger priced ones especially the Balding pair but that is just my personal opinion…gd lck with whatever you decide.

    1. That was disappointing! Surprised that my selection was backed into fav from 8/1 but overall could not have had the winner 0/15 with 2 yo for the trainer, just shows you stats not the be all and end all…winner did it well so hope the other selection today runs a better race! The big priced pedigree eyecatchers also disappointing ……one to forget I think.

  11. 2.40 Nmkt Dance Legend e/w

    On adjusted figures Dance Legend is just marginally better than Alexana and Spirit of Appin…..Sparkle Roll is a progeny of Kingman so has to be respected as does Gosden but the price is just about ok and continually backing short priced horses leads to the poor house so prefer the above at a bigger price with Alexana to run close just ahead of Sparkel Roll and Spirit of Appin….would not put anyone off backing any of the mentioned horses and would certainly consider them for place pot options if anyone does the tote place pots.

    1. Chose the wrong e/w option as spirit of Appin turns the form around with Dance legend which ran a disappointing race, as did Alexana, so hope someone backed Appin e/w.

      Think that will be it for the day….back sometime mid to the back end of August as not sure if internet access is ok and time to dip into analysis when travelling…have a good few weeks all…..

  12. Good Twin shout for Nick and Josh Casablanca Mix…Pus a 25/1 winner for Josh’s short list on trends….Great shout lads…

    Tony mc.

    1. Thanks Tony. That sounds like you had a go at hurdle winner. Hope so. That’s what it’s about. Good stuff.

    1. Thanks Mark. I was hoping she’d do that. Sometimes you look at a race and think how the hell is she this price haha. Think Hendo may have decided to have a go at these decent summer pots this year, whereas he may have just thrown rubbish at them previously.

  13. Well done Josh and Nick today, great double act, and to all who take the time and trouble to post on this amazing site!! Simply the best……by 8 furlongs!
    Best wishes, Tom. Oh yes, and have a great few weeks away Silver!

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