Members Daily Post: 19/07/19 (complete: 08.47)

Chase Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), Sat trends, HRB video

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Haydock

5.25 – Calder Prince   (all Hc’s,micro dist) I3 G3 7/1 

 

Newbury

3.05 – Sea Of Faith   (all Hc’s) 14,30  w1  ES+ H3 I1 8/13 S3A# UP

 

Nottingham

2.50 –

Bold Show   (all Hc’s,m TJC and age)  ES+ 8/1 S3A UP

Congress Place   (3yo+) 16/1 

Champagne Mondays   (all Hc’s,m class) 12/1 

4.30 – Jackpot Royale   (3yo+) 20/1 

5.00 – Salam Zayed   (all Hc’s,m’s TJC,dist and age)  w1  ES+ H1 I3 7/2 S3A# WON 7/2> 2/1 

 

Hamilton

6.00 – Equidae   (m runs) H3 I3 G1 15/2 S4 S6  UP

7.05 – Orions Bow   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 8/1 S3A    WON 8/1>7/2     

7.40 –

Staxton   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ H1 I1 9/1 S1 S3A# S6 3rd 

Teruntum Star   (3yo+) 25/1 

Admirality   (all Hc’s) H3 I1 6/1 S6  4th 

Golden Apollo   (all Hc’s)  ES+ I3 6/1 S3A UP

Yousini   (3yo+) 8/1 UP

8.45 – Ad Libitum   (all Hc’s) 16/1 

9.15 –

Chookie Dunedin   (m runs) I3 11/2 

Dancing Rave   (m class and runs)  w2  9/2 

 

Newmarket……….None

 

Pontefract

7.30 – Excessable   (m runs)  10/1                                      

8.00 – Brother McGonagall   (m runs) 12/1 

9.05 –

Highly Sprung   (3yo+,m class) H3 G3 11/2 

Round The Island   (all Hc’s, m dist,class) 14,30  3/1 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/82, 27p +33.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

8.15 Kilbeggan 

Mindsmadeup – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH/BetfS/PP) Non Runner 

 

This horse is first reserve here so there’s a chance he doesn’t run if they all stand their ground. I think they have until an hour before the first race on the card to hope for a NR. If he doesn’t run I believe stakes are returned. 

This horse moved stables after January and his new yard appear to have found a fair bit of improvement, in part combined with stepping him up in trip I think. 2 starts back he bolted up, admittedly in a weaker race than this. It has produced 5 subsequent winners though and he ran a cracker LTO also, when stepped up in class. He seemed to find the 2m6f short enough there, staying on to the line. He’s a course winner over hurdles, has experience of the chase track over shorter and may well relish this stiffer test of stamina. Bryan Cooper jumps on and he’s ridden and he’s 1/5 for the trainer. I think it may be significant that he’s booked an experienced pilot. 

He does like to race prominently which I think is especially important around here. I hope he’s not very far off the pace. It’s a 9f circuit, very sharp, and tends to favour front runners/prominent racers. The fav likes to race up there, as does IcantSay and Full Cry. 

I had a look at Full Cry but thought something may be better handicapped than him – or he has that to probe anyway. I didn’t really like much else and only wanted one onside in this. I may have nothing to go to war with if there isn’t a non-runner, but we shall see. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 0/2,1p,-2)

None. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

None. Nick is taking a few days off from tipping

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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SATURDAY Big Race Trends 

Market Rasen Summer Hurdle and Summer Plate Stats/Trend/Trainers : READ HERE>>>

Trends ‘Shortlists’ 

TBC Friday afternoon. No 48h decs. 

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NEW VIDEO

I’ve recorded a 20 min video with my process within HorseRaceBase for how I researched the Tim Vaughan angle shared a few days back. These sorts of videos can’t be any shorter 🙂 (the tipping/review ones can!) But for those of you who like systems research etc you may find it interesting. (the half blacked out screen disappears after 1 min, not sure what happened there)

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Morning,

    great race at Kilbeggan tonight, so, lets have a punt.
    20:15 Kilbeggan
    FULL CRY 8/1 PP / VC 1pt win
    I think he was desperately unlucky last time out and I did select him then, he was going really well down the back straight and certainly looked as though he would win turning in, but, one of Mr Elliotts got the better of him on the run in, he is bettter in with that winner this time though and should make amends hopefully. This track favours front runners, so, expect him up with the pace and pushing from the front.
    NED STARK 7/1 gen 1pt win
    Anything from the GE stable with Davy Russell on you have to look twice at, his others apart from MILL QUEST will be out the back and this is a hard course to come from the back on, he may be 11 years old, but, GE reckons he has come on from his last run, so, will go with his judgement and the jockey booking and the fact that he should be up there from the off, to come to the fore and be there or thereabouts.
    NAH TRACHTALI ABU 14/1 gen 1pt win
    Now, i have to put my favourite horse of the moment in here, last time out i tipped him and he just failed under a strong ride from the front by Rachael Blackmore, she did really well on him and he responded to a strong push and just emptied out towards the finish. I am expecting Mr Burke to do the same here, if not I hope they drop back to 2m 5f-2m 6f i believe he will romp home in one of those races as he has the pace on the way round to burn horses off. Think they will push him to extreme here and then see. From what I have heard the owners did want to win one National and then see where they go, but, I don`t know if he stays, wouldn`t put you off each way, but, like i said we shall see!

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Sometimes you just need that rub of the green, mine and yours have been a while coming again Nick! Thank you betting gods for letting me actually get one in for the first time in what seems an age….Hope Rachel Blackmore and Barra are ok?

  2. COLINS BETS
    5.00 Nottingham Salam Zayed BOG 7/2
    5.45 Newmarket Sigrid Nansen BOG 11/2
    7.30 Pontefract Excessable BOG 8/1
    6.00 Hamilton Strong Steps BOG 10/3
    7.40 Hamilton Lake Volta BOG 15/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.10 Haydock Creek Island BOG 9/2
    3.50 Haydock Mondain BOG 6/1
    Colin

  3. Wrong Date!!! Put my last post up in the Free Post Section dated 19th so go there for the 3.40 Newbury selections.

    8.10 Hamilton w/o Mackaar.

    A trainer (cannot remember who) once said ” if you want a good horse beat, take it to Hamilton” ….Persian Moon is a good horse and Favs in this type of race are 69% which equates roughly to a 4/9 shot so at around 5/4 is value but the question is…why is it not shorter? The horse has run 11.2 furlongs at 35.317 mph which is slightly below the average of 35.90 for the distance….likewise Mackaar has run 10.07f at 36.11 mph which is about right for the average for that distance so which is the better horse? Obviously Persian is more proven at the current distance but should Mackaar get the extra distance, beyond 10.07f, then this is the choice at the current price, hoping the horse can get the distance….caution as this is not certain to beat the fav but Persian Moon is a good horse etc…

  4. Off to Newbury today. I saw Elegant Erin (2.30pm) last week and thought she was far too fat to do herself justice. Didn’t even bother with her e/w at 20’s.
    Today she will be much fitter and I would think is guaranteed a place.
    My absence has been due to holidays and endless events stealing my racing time so I have just had to dial it right back for now.

  5. Kil 8-15. Mindsmadeup a n/r, thought i might give Barra one more chance but the 10-1 looks a bit skinny if she drifts to 16’s+ i’ll probably have a go.
    Just a quick insight into my mindset (don’t look to deep there’s sh*t in there nobody should see)
    i’m looking for 3yo+ or older handicaps with 10 or more runners and a 6-1+ shot that looks value to me.
    This afternoon 2 races at Nottingham to look at,
    2-50. Always Amazing 14-1, a distance winner who came a close 4th lto over 5f step back up in trip should help but question marks on turf, his 2 2nd’s at Chelmsford showed some ability in this class and could be worth a go.
    5-00. Foxy Rebel 10-1, a c/d winner who placed in this race last year, 3rd lto showed an improvement on recent form.
    both £2ew and a £1 ew double

  6. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    8.25 Newmarket Sunday Star BOG 9/2 very strong word for this one which as been reflected in the betting 13/2 to 9/2.
    Other trainers have not put their views up yet should be able to put any possible bets later
    Colin

  7. Newbury 2.00. Oslo e/w

    Really tricky race to decipher…..of those that have run there are no superstars here as they are below average for the distances they have run over…experience does count a lot in these races and those that have had a run do have an advantage over debutantes………..trainers that do well are Appleby, Stoute and Gosden…of those that have run Encipher is the fastest having run 35.67 mph over 7f, the average being 36.98, so is slower than the average and therefore would not be surprised to see a newcomer take this….Ascension, Native Tribe and Oslo have the better pedigrees and would be disappointed if one of these did not win…the selection is based on price primarily as would expect this to hit the frame…depends if Ryan rides out if he decides he has no chance of winning..he will not push the horse to win if it means giving the horse a hard time so , if the selection comes with a risk…of the other two it is very difficult to split them on pedigree…the trainer with the better record is Appleby but the pedigree of Ascension is better in my opinion at 3/1 each bookies not giving much away….favs are 27% so at 5/4 is no value…if I had to choose one of the shorties then Ascension would be the option….so just watch Native Tribe bolt up!!!

    1. Encipher gets the job done but could not have it a the prices…the others are just ordinary as is the winner…so a bit disappointed that one of the newcomers was not good enough to challenge the fav..but that’s racing

  8. 2.30 Newbury. Golden Cygnet e/w

    Nasaiym clocked 38.74 mph over 5f and when winning was described as keeping on well so should get the distance of 6f….Favs are 33%, so at 6/5 does not represent price value…I do not think Elegant Erin, the only other runner to have had a previous run, is fast enough to compete so of the newcomers the horse that I like in terms of pedigree is Golden Cygnet, the jockey has a 21%strike rate so at 22/1 hopefully will hit the frame…..there are several horses that have really good pedigrees including the Gosden runner Run Wild and the trainer does well with 2yo hhere with a 28% strike rate but this race may throw up a few that have the pedigrees to run well…amongst those Dirty Dancer, Time To Strike, Acquire, Nina Bailarina, Greater Love at decent e/w prices may well surprise.

  9. 2.40 Haydock

    Treble Treble e/w

    Hopefully the selection will hit the frame for some value against the fav and will win if being more optimistic!

    1. Treble Treble does not disappoint so at least got the win and redeemed the cost of backing the other selections so hopefully a bit of profit later on with some other selections

        1. Thanks …..bit tardy posting…trying to fit life around racing proves problematical at times!

  10. Quite on here just noticed research from Swansea Univercity claim that upto 17,000 betting addicts try to kill themselves each year, they did not mention how many succeeded, however these stats are disgraceful if true, no break down on age groups.
    No doubt you have seen the latest from PP and Huddersfield Town football strip with PP logo sash trying to tempt children into betting.
    Nothing will be done when 70% of benefits to MPs all parties are from bookmakers we all enjoy freebies dont we!
    Do not forget gamblers aware sponsered by those lovely bookmakers, who could teach the Mafia a few new tricks, how the CEO of the bookmaking firms can sleep at night God knows.
    Colin.

    1. Unfortunately, if you have an addictive personality, if it is not gambling then drink or drugs would be the other problem or a combination of all of them…..would be interesting to see comparisons for the other addiction problems to get a truer picture but whatever the stats are, it is a very sad indeed and education is certainly the way forward whereas encouraging kids to gamble is definitely not….

  11. 3.40 Newbury post in the Free section as the date on here is wrong where I put up two…one a nonrunner and the other Lord of The Lodge….latter disappointing run which may well be ground related as it is now soft going so can excuse the run…the going was good when I put it up….just shows you how important the going is to a horse’s performance as the winner Shadn’s sire is 9/26 or 35% on the going whilst Lord of the Lodge’s sire is 40/413 @ 10%..on the up side……. money back on the non-runner!

    1. Ah yes, it would appear to be the 19th today!! Apols about that – various things going on this week non work related which have affected focus slightly! 🙂

      1. Totally not a problem and perfectly understandable…tendency is to forget racing is not the be all and end all of life

  12. 7.20 Nmkt….. Ardiente w/o.

    Take a chance with Ardiente to beat Whispering Beauty as may be marginally better but a difficult race to end the day on…..one to watch is Happy Face as sired by Kingman ….the progeny of this sire is doing particularly well and just a pity there are only the sad 7 runners…personally I will be having a small wager on this on,e win only, together with the selection but it is up to yourselves as this is a tricky race to have a wager……obviously this means Whispering Beauty will now beat both of them!

    1. There you go…should have heeded my own prediction… one last one in the 8.10 Hamilton to avoid a loss for the day.

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