Members Daily Post: 16/07/19 (complete: 09.41)

Chase Tip x1 (+write up / review), Section 1 (complete), test zone, SURVEY, Stratford Review (inc video)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs



3.00- Singing The Blues   (micro age) H1 I3 G3 11/4 S4 


Top Boy   (m going)  w1 H3 I1 G3 4/5 S4 WON 5/6

Silverrica   (3yo+,m dist)  ES+ 10/1 S3A UP

5.00- Bonny Blue   (m age and runs) 15/2 



2.15 –

Mr Greenlight    (3yo+,m age)  ES+ G3 9/2 S3A UP

Seamster   (3yo+) 22/1  


Twin Appeal   (3yo+,m class) H3 I3 9/2 

Golden Guest   (3yo+,m class and age) 11/2 

3.45 –

Ollivander   (all Hc’s,m TJC and dist) H3 I3 7/2 

Global Exceed   (3yo+,m class) H3 11/2 

Relight My Fire   (3yo+)  ES+ G1 7/1 S3A S6  UP

Make On Madam   (3yo+,m class)  11/1 

4.15 – Ghayyar   (3yo+)  ES+ H1 I3 G1 2/1 S1 S3A# S4 UP



6.40 –Dragon Beat   (3yo+,m dist) 15/2 

7.40 –Artic Nell   (all Hc’s) H3  6/1 

8.10 –Eponina   (3yo+,m runs)  w2  I1 G3 13/2 S6  UP





6.00 –

Elkstone   (m class) 14/1 

Atomic Rumble   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H1 I3 4/1 S3A# UR

Mr Mafia   (m class)  I1 11/2  WON

6.30 –Gold Mountain   (m class and runs) 12/1 

8.00- Bobble Emerald   (m’s class, dist and runs)  18/1 S2A UP

8.30 –Theatre Act   (m age)  ES+ H3  9/4 S3A WON 9/4>11/10




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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/81, 27p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

6.00 South – Iskabeg Lane – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen)

as of 08.57, write up…

15/2 seems 2/3 points too big in this line up to my eyes. He comes here in decent form, is admirably consistent, he does try (albeit sometimes not the hardiest in a fight but he could be all alone after the last!) I think he stays, he’s a bloody good jumper (touch wood) and will travel on the pace. I think a mark of 107 is fine – he hasn’t won from this high but at Market Rasen a while back he looked as if he was going to bolt up off 106 when falling 3 from home. He was 2L up that day with everything else seemingly in trouble. I just thought he’d be in the right spot, would jump and gallop through the line when there’s questions over plenty of others in that regard, in the context of their price.

He ran a great race LTO, thankfully for us just beaten on the line – but there was no shame in that given it was a 120s horse who nabbed him and may well have outstayed him – Iskabeg did seem to look around a bit, i’m not sure if something caught his eye in the crowd/stables/paddock but having watched a selection of 5/6 of his races/closing efforts I don’t think he’s ungenuine. He usually responds for pressure. Henry Brooke will know him better now also and the horse has course experience, having raced over 20f here, being outpaced turning for home/plugging on. His record LH is fine, he’s jumped Sedgefield and Newcastle no problem.

Of all of them I thought he looked overpriced. I wouldn’t want him to be in a scrap here over the last but he could be 4/5 L clear by then with any luck.

Of the rest…

It’s a game of price. The two most attractive profiles are Battle of Ideas and Atomic Rumble and I won’t be shocked if either takes this. However this mark could do for the former, albeit unexposed, but also he has stamina to prove. I’m not sure he’ll get home, even around here. He may do but I don’t like guessing on staying chase stamina at 4s, and his breeding/relatives wouldn’t give you much confidence. Atomic Rumble… I watched his last run and something niggles at me. He jumped to his right at times there, and violently so as the race progressed. I don’t know if that was a one off and maybe Bowen junior will do better than his big brother in keeping him straight. He does have a good record on him over hurdles and I can understand the change. Sean may well have been jocked off. I think he has preference over his Dad’s horses first, and isn’t tied to Bailey’s yard in that sense, but I could be wrong. IF he jumps straight he will go very close here. He bumped into a handicap blot LTO. However i also didn’t like his head carriage at times. In theory based on his Aintree handicap hurdle win he should be winning from this mark over fences when it all clicks. Maybe they will be ultra aggressive and try to lead, hoping that makes a difference. Given my niggles, 4s just wasn’t big enough. Were he 15/2, and Iskabeg 4s, i’d be tipping him and leaving the latter.

See Double You – I can cheer him home. I’m not backing a 16 year old and i’m not backing one at 7/2 or so. He arrives in some sort of form albeit wasn’t the best when last racing over fences. He’s a credit to himself and connections and i’ll just smile if he takes this. It’s always heartening to see the old boys win, even when you’ve done your dough.

Mr Mafia – well he can beat me at 9/2/4s. I’d want twice that price. He may well have been that last night, not sure if he’s been tipped in places. But he’s 10, had 45 races, is 1/14 over fences and is hard to predict. Dicky gets the leg up and he could make a massive difference. Harry Stock is ok, but no Champion Jockey. He’s also on an attractive mark. But he can race off the pace, make the odd error and well I just didn’t like his price. He may well either bolt up or tail off. It’s hard to know if the yard are in form also. I suppose a repeat of that run from last September would put him bang there. Anyway, i’m taking him on at his morning odds.

I can leave the others. I think Little Windmill is handicapped up to his best and keeps finding a few better treated. He will run his usual solid race no doubt but was happy to take him on. He needs more than recent runs. Elkstone is mercurial, the sort to pop up at these odds…but he usually over races/is keen, is held up out the back as has to be settled/delivered through horses it seems, and can hit the odd fence. I’m not sure if he fully stays in a properly run race either, but on paper has won over the distance so that may be nonsense. He’s the sort of horse you’re never destined to get right and I doubt connections know when he’ll go close.

PACE/race position…  the selection should be 1st or 2nd hopefully. Little Windmill will be up there but mine may have too much pace for him. I hope he takes it up leaving the back for the final time. They may be aggressive on Atomic Rumble but were happy to track the pace LTO. Cobden may want to be up there also but given the step up in trip may be a tad more patient and he sat off the pace LTO. The rest may fall into line behind those, unless Dicky also has a change of mind on how to ride his! Taking on 3 horses in section 1 may be unwise, time will tell, but hopefully one for the Brooke micro below!



Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 0/2,1p,-2)

NONE, short review of yesterday to follow…


Yesterday’s selection travelled well on the whole but his jumping was iffy again- not even Davy could sort that out and he took a crashing fall a few fences out. Maybe that track was too tight for him, his best chase effort coming at the far more galloping Leopardstown. He was being niggled when he fell, and clearly is one to leave now I think, certainly until winning over fences and polishing up his jumping.

The winner was very well punted 7/2 morning>11/8 SP. She had been running well, some decent chase efforts and was still unexposed. They raced her more handy that I expected.

The Eye-Catcher >>> 

Das Mooser ... quite the effort from this 102 rated chaser, splitting horses rated 120 and 130, and not stopping come the line. He was keeping on and may be worth a go over further. They should certainly drop him down in class. He likes to front run and generally jumps well. You’d think they’ll find a summer chase for him soon on this evidence. It was only his 6th chase run under rules. I’m not 100% sure how Racing Post collate their ratings in all honesty, but the winner got 129 for that effort, he got 109 for a 2L beating. I assume they calculate it in relation to the horses mark, rather than oppo etc! Anyway i’d be shocked if he doesn’t make all soon, it will just be a question of whether he’s a ‘value’ price (which is always in the eye of the beholder) But, add him to your trackers 🙂


3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

None. Nick is taking a few days off from tipping


4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

6.00 South – Iskabeg Lane

9.00 South – Canneyhill Bob

Trainers to follow

8.00 South – Murphys Law (11/1< guide)

9.00 South – Nomountainhienough (11/1< guide)


6.00 South – Battle of Ideas / Elkstone


Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

7.30 South – For Good Measure


5.Any general messages/updates etc


Your Views Appreciated: RTP Members Club Survey 

Below is a link to a short survey (shouldn’t take more than 5-10 mins) asking for your views on this members’ club – how you engage with the content, what you may want more of and room for free text comments on what you like, and what you would improve. I think it’s anonymous and you don’t have to leave feedback in the free text questions if you don’t wish, however these are always most useful. There’s also the odd question on your racing code preferences and how you’d describe your level of racing knowledge 🙂

Please not most of the questions are ‘tick boxes’ where you can select as many answers as you wish >>>


Thanks. Josh


Sunday’s tipping race … 4.10 Stratford Review…

(this video covers some of what follows below it – and it’s under 10 minutes long!!) 🙂 


The tip… Between The Waters… I’ll never be too annoyed with a 2nd place, especially when I think no more could have been done to win. He’s run his race, received a decent ride for me, and has got beaten by a more progressive rival who had more in hand. Page Fuller settled him well, got him jumping and crept into it, never too far off the pace on the second circuit. When she went for home turning in I thought game over, but up loomed the winner.

This was the run of an in-form horse who may now be difficult to place. But he travels well and generally jumps well. This 2m6f may have stretched him in the final furlong but he had the right horses around him. (losing to an unexposed one, the fav just behind him) These efforts may start taking their toll soon, but he could be of interest NTO, depending on opposition and price.

The winner…

Take Em Out >>>

You get nothing in this game for lazy analysis. I didn’t watch his run back LTO at Ffos Las. Poor, and I got what I deserved. I made a rash judgement that I didn’t like the numerous breaks he’d had and that his inexperience may catch him out – foolish. This horse had placed twice in points and if I’d bothered to watch that Ffos Las effort I’d have taken confidence from his jumping. I’d have also realised what a brute of a horse he is – and in that context it’s no shock connections have taken their time and he’s no doubt taken a while to fill into his frame/strengthen etc. He also is best on decent ground and hurdles were only ever there as an intro to racing life.

Given he’d placed in points (running on) and placed at Exeter over 2m 7f (running on/slowly run race) over timber on his last start of 2018, it should have been no shock that he was outpaced at Ffos Las over 2m3f. And he no doubt needed the run also! Watching the video back that’s all obvious and he was given a gentle time of it up the straight.

At Stratford then he’d had the experience of a chase run and was stepping up in trip to 2m6 ½ furlongs which given his point runs and his run LTO was an obvious/positive move. Up to this point in his career he’d only won a weak 4 runner maiden hurdle but at least he’d won a race, which is always a positive.

I got the decision right with the fav but got Take Em Out badly wrong and in the context of the race/opposition his early morning 11/1 or so allowed a risk to be taken. Easy to say in hindsight of course.


(stats from start of 2016)

Looking at his overall record it’s clear he does much better in handicap chases than hurdles. A 14.77% win SR vs 9.49% over timber. It could be the whole operation is geared towards buying potential chasers of the future, which may be the case at most jumps yards but not all.

In handicaps | chases (covers standard and novice handicaps) with those horses having their first ever start over fences under rules (exc any Point to Point runs) (so 0 chase runs) he is…

49 bets / 3 wins / 11 places

I think it’s fair to say many are given a gentle introduction to the chasing game.

I’ve tried to find a ‘micro angle’ ‘way in’ for standard handicap chases (not Novice hncps) but I’m struggling.


  • Handicap Novice Chases
  • 1+ run in handicap | chases
  • 2016 >

73 bets / 20 wins / 24 places / 27% win SR / +55 SP / +67 BFSP / AE 1.44 / Chi 3.29

  • All winners have been 16/1< SP, albeit only 4 sent off above this price.
  • 11 of those winners were beaten more than 10+ lengths LTO
    • 7 of those were beaten by more than 30L or Did Not Complete.
  • Those stats are from 17 different horses, suggesting a clear MO to my eyes.

Vaughan would generally have moderate horses and he may have spotted a gap in the market with these Novice Handicap Chases, preferring to target those with the right horses, rather than building up experience in novice chases before going into standard handicap chase company (who by their nature generally include many more experienced chasers, possibly more competitive etc)

I don’t tend to play in Novice Handicap Chases very often, but I’ve saved that micro above, will pay more attention to his runners hitting said ‘rules’ and take a much closer look at those seemingly thumped LTO. (hence why a few go in at decent odds no doubt)




Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 responses

  1. Just to say well done to Colin today. 3 cracking winners to push Colin’s Bets into profit. Elite Bets also going well. 33pts profit combined for July. Starting to fire on all cylinders. Good luck.

    Thanks to Ken, Harry and Chris for your kind words of support, nice to know some are still watching after a rocky year so far.
    3.30 Bath Thegreyvtrain BOG 10/3
    8.30 Southwell Thegreyvtrain HOT RYAN BOG 14/1

    1. Well done Colin, long may it continue.

      I think that you have double counted the same horse in error above.

      See you on the Free Post re The Open.

      1. Well done with your 40/1 winner last week Martin, top golfing. I only comment to flag others in here to yours and Colin’s golf musings which if you’re unaware are posted in the free post comments usually on a Tuesday or Wednesday. If you’re able to put a running P/L for year etc when you post that would be great, albeit I think you do them monthly anyway. I was reading some analysis somewhere which said with ‘Golf tipsters’ they average 2-4 winners a year – I suppose at the odds that’s plenty, and of course stresses importance of the place elements/no. of places available with certain bookies etc. Anyway keep up the great work. Josh

  3. No problem at all, Colin.

    Most of you are well aware that as well as being a travel agent, I run two “tipping” services.

    Last month one was flying whilst one floundered and this month it’s the opposite way around. Anyone who doesn’t expect variances in form or can’t handle them shouldn’t be betting at all in my opinion.

    PS can you clarify today’s Elite selection, please?

    Thanks Martin for putting up my error, put my golf bets up already!

    8.30 Southwell Hot Ryan BOG 14/1


  5. nothing tis afternoon but a small ew L15 tonight.
    6-00. Iskaberg Lane 9-1
    8-30. Hot Ryan 14-1

  6. Hi Josh, I’ve backed Atomic Rumble in 6.00 Southwell . Thought 7/2 was fair. I like to bet the Bowen’s this time of year in handicap chases and keep your summer chase guide in a prominent place on my desk at home! Bowen shows up well in your guide and it feels like he is coming into form in last few days after rough patch. I thought AR came up against one of the biggest blots you will see lto, and 14 lengths back to the 3rd. Just watching that run back, I don’t think the jockey realised just how much the horse had left down back straight and I suspect they will be asking him to push on further out today, only niggle is the jumping out to the right, but horse is young and learning and looks progressive. Good luck

    1. Hi James, yep I agree with you in general as per my musings above in the write up – it’s just a question of price and whether it’s value – that’s in the eye of the beholder and on that we differ 🙂 Albeit clearly if Iskabeg doesn’t win (seems to have lost a leg since I tipped him!) I hope Atomic does for S3A/# followers (i’m one!).
      If he’d have jumped straight LTO and a bit better than he did (albeit yep entitled to be learning) i’d have spent a while pondering whether 4s was overpriced. He was losing plenty of lengths down the back on the final time- although I do wonder over the last couple whether he was following the horse in front who started diving to his right. It could be that James gets a better tune out of him – I believe the brothers at times decide between themselves which ones of their Dad’s to ride, and if one has a better record/or rode LTO to victory they’ll stay on/swap around.
      Without doubt he’s progressive and given he hacked up off a similar mark over hurdles at Aintree you’d think he’s a 120s chaser at some point. He may prove that today. I’d fancy him most of all those under 5/1. He did carry his head a tad high also when under pressure, and the yard were going just as well when he last ran. So, a tricky one – it’s that price point which is always challenging. He shouldn’t be far away, and maybe he will still win if jumping as he did LTO. He did bump into one for sure.
      Clearly if he does do the same, i’d expect him to be turning up to a Market Rasen or somehwere RH.
      If and when Iskabeg falls in a hole i’ll be cheering him on! Best of luck.


    My survey… if you’d be so kind to take 5 mins to tick a few boxes it will impact on the members’ content moving forward 🙂 around 14% of the membership have completed it so far and i’d like to get it near to 50% so that it’s of more use.

    You can find it here and it’s anonymous>>>>

    even the results so far are proving to be useful, with plenty to ponder… for example it appears the idea of a more obvious ‘eye-catchers’ section/or clearly highlighted is something that interests plenty of you… and you can see an early attempt at that with the review of yesterday in section 2 above…
    the free text comments are also great… the good and the constructive! One of you said it would be useful to add ‘times’ of updates into the blog heading, to know when the last update was made before the post is complete – simple – yet i’d never thought of it! That’s on the basic end of things to improve but every little helps – hence the addition of times in today’s headings! 🙂

    So, please do find a couple of mins to complete it – even if it’s just the tick box sections which don’t take anytime at all…

    Thanks! Josh

  8. Only managed one piece of low hanging fruit yesterday from the Dascombe wolv stats,no price in end.Todays low hanger is Michael Stoutes Heavenly Bliss 8.10 Nottingham 7/1.Has a good record there with his 3yo’s,although trainer isn’t in scorching form.The booking of David Egan,sort of fits in with trainers M.O. of having a lower tier jockey up when having an under the radar touch,just the one out today,worth a small interest at price to find out i think.
    All the best today

  9. Not such a good day yesterday which I’m sure has shocked everyone just as much as me…. 3 winners but unfortunately not all on the same acca. Total staked £ £62.79 Total Returned £105.80.

    Todays Acca Rattles

    ew Heinz
    5:00 Bath Imperial Act
    5:15 Beverley John Caesar
    5:50 Killarney Rhydwyn
    6:40 Nottingham Choosey
    8:30 Southwell Hot Ryan
    8:40 Nottingham Orliko

    ew Canadian

    2:15 Beverley Twentysvnlancers
    3:15 Beverley Twin Appeal
    3:45 Beverley Relight My Fire
    8:10 Nottingham Eponina
    8:20 Killarney Fintown Boy

  10. Lambourn
    Yesterday a 5/1 winner from 3 bets
    Today Hills and Hughes are the only 2 trainers with runners 3 between them and as of yet they have not put their views up so do not think they will, so it is a no bet day.

  11. Quick question for the regular posters and Josh and Nick on here who put up their picks. When you put up your selections no one ever seems to put a NAP and NB if you put up more than 1 pick. Is this because you believe all have an equal chance so to speak, or is it just not something you don’t like to do? (not a criticism by the way just curious!).

    1. ha – well i’m let’s say… ideologically opposed (if there is such a thing) to NAPs and Next Best and all that nonsense.

      Why? – well it’s hard enough trying to judge whether something is value price to your own eyes (which can only come with time, experience and gut!) – working out why you should fancy one horse more than another I have never understood at all, especially when you take the same approach to analysis every time. Even more so if putting 1 point win on say (or consistent level staking)… you should express confidence in staking, not in ‘nap’ etc – what the hell is the difference between a 1 point win NAP and a 1 point win Next Best. Baffling.

      I suppose this is in the context of whether or not you have a strict rules based approach to selection process? I don’t – I have a ‘method’ I suppose but my confidence doesn’t come from whether a selection ticks more boxes etc etc. I suppose maximum confidence with my chasers comes from lone front runners, solid jumpers, expect to run race and an assessment that the oppo are rubbish etc (some or all of that list). I shouldn’t be making them ‘naps’, I should maybe be making them 2 point win – but judging such staking is another snake pit and my experience to date suggests I should stick to 1 point win at least, on everything!

      I think deciding a ‘nap’ is a strange psychological phenomena which is illogical – unless you have a scripted/systematic analytical approach as above (ie ‘my Nap will always be a lone front runner, as I know that increases chance % etc’ , for example)

      Does that make sense? I think most people decide on the ‘nap’ simply by picking the shortest priced one of their shortlist! Not what may be most value % terms – but then only way to get that properly is to do your own tissues, which isn’t something I do, and nor do I think it necessary to be a profitable recreational punter. It is if you wish to be a pro punter imo.

      Working out what horse you most fancy is a skill in itself – maybe i’m a tad disparaging because i’m not that good at it! I suspect some who ‘nap’ keep records and they clearly do best – I hope the stake accordingly.

      There isn’t a right or wrong answer to that obviously. But you do have to know why you’re making something a ‘nap’ and to be consistent with that. I think a lot of people who ‘nap’ are doing a finger in the air job – some will be scared of tipping a 12s/16s+, so will make it ‘next best’ as a comfort blanket for being wrong many more times than they’ll be right, but prob more profitable than naps!


      1. Thanks Josh, appreciate the reply. What you said is what I imagine all those who don’t believe in napping would say and have surmised, they would simply increase their points stake if they felt it had a better chance. Other than yourself and Nick, no one else seems to put up their stakes points wise, so I was curious if they had some stronger fancies than others from their lists.

        1. ah well in that context it makes sense yep – I suspect most are level staking but in truth i’ve no idea. It’s a great topic for debate – would be interested in why some would be more confident on some horses than others that they are also backing, and the reasoning.
          For my own approach that would come down to lone front runners etc I think, as a starter. For something being more fancied than something else.
          It’s an interesting topic for discussion. My view may be complete tosh!

          1. Sometimes there are plus and minus points about a selection, the plus points outweigh the minus points and the odds seal the deal. That’s a 1 point bet.

            Sometimes I can’t find anything strongly against, that is a nap and gets at least 2 points from me, sometimes more. And in the limited time I have to pick there’s usually one most days.

            I really fancy Rock Warbler today for many more reasons than I put in my brief write-up. That’s my nap and I’ve had more than 2 points on it.

          2. Ah interesting… yep so your strength of conviction on one selection over another comes from an assessment of the opposition, and that gives you more confidence etc? That sounds perfectly logical – but yes you’re representing that ‘nap’ say, through staking – a more confident selection due to lack of strength to oppose.
            I’m sure plenty of pros would scoff at the idea of level staking – they’d say you need to know when to go in harder- sounds like you have a process for that, something I could probably learn from! It is about consistency of applying that process I think, if nothing else to avoid mental anguish!

          3. I have to say that in my assessment of Rock Warbler I hardly looked at the opposition at all.

            Instant Expert says the best of the opposition is 8lb under last winning mark, they are both out of form.

            I think mine is possibly 11lb well in, end of opposition.

    2. Not for me every bet that i put up are backed by myself and hopefully they all will run well, afraid like the bookmakers percentages rule take Lambourn bets yesterday 3 bets level stakes one winner 5/1 which i am happy with, 3 x £10 win bets = £30 return £60 100% profit so one winner good for me, if you put up a Nap guarenteed you go for the wrong one.
      If you purchase a newspaper record the main tipsters Nap and NB over 12 months and see if they manage a profit in that time, in fact somewhere there is a daily record of many newspaper tipsters Naps and very few used to be in profit.

    3. I started to put up nap selections on here last week but not every day. Just to test the potential for a daily tips service somewhere. My other tips are on the tipping post. A common dictionary definition of nap is – a tipster’s choice for an almost certain winner . Almost……

      My nap is just the one I picked out by feel from my selections…no science here.

    4. I used to post NAP and also offer differing staking however the reality is I like most of the tipsters out there am a far worse judge when it comes to staking and deciding what is most likely to win than actually tipping. (I used to wind Josh up saying I’d be a millionaire if I laid all his 2pt tips) so I have stuck for the most part to pretty much level stakes and actually have adopted a level staking strategy for all my tipsters ignoring the stakes they advise and think my balance is better for it.

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