Members Daily Post: 15/07/19 (complete)

Strat review/Vaughan pointers > test chase tip x1 (+ write up), Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Ayr

2.05 – Yes You (micro class) 20/1

2.40 – Cosmic Chatter (m class) I3 18/1

3.10 –

Forever A Lady (m runs) H3 I1 G1 7/2 S1 S4 3rd

Heres Rocco (m class) 14 16/1 

3.40 – Howzer Black (m runs) I3 G3 6/1 

5.10 – Spark Of War (m runs)  G3 15/2 

 

Ripon

3.20 – Midnight Malibu (m class)  G3 7/1 

3.50 – Pipers Note (m class and dist) I3 9/1 

4.20 –

Final (m TJC) I3 13/2 

Mutamaded (m age) H1 I1 G1 11/4 S1 S4  2nd 7/1

Appointed (m class) w2 H1 I3 G3 6/1 S4 S6 

5.20 – Dew Pond (m runs) H1 I3 9/2 

 

Windsor

5.30 –

Tavus (m age) 5/4

Bader (m dist) 14/1

7.00 –

Capriolette (all Hc’s) 14 ES+ 11/1 S3A

Tamerlane (m TJC and going) 14 H3 I1 7/1 S6 

Gin Palace (3yo+) w2  I1 G1 15/2 S1 S6 

7.30 – Iconic Knight (all Hcs) 14 ES+  8/1 S3A 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/81, 27p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 0/2,1p,-2)

7.20 Killarn – Dakota Moirette – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/BV) 5/1 (gen) Fell, 7/1… oh well not even Davy could get him jumping. A chance the track was too tight for him, but he was starting to be niggled when clouting one and I don’t think he’d have been involved.

that’s all for today, as of 08.59, write up…

This race doesn’t look the strongest for the grade/money and i’d like to think this has been the plan. Trying to second guess connections and esp rest patterns with chasers is always tricky – I got it badly wrong with Vaughan’s yesterday. With this one I think the 49 day break is a positive in the context that it was on the back of a very busy period for the horse, Davy has been booked, and it’s a nice prize for the time of year to go for. Were Davy not booked i’d have left the race I suspect but I think he could make all the difference, riding him for only the second time over fences. He has been a scratchy jumper at times, none more so than LTO where he was awful. Maybe that was part jockey, part horse but was his 3rd run in a short space of time also. He’s yet to win over fences and this is his 9th handicap chase start, placing three times. He’s some solid placed efforts to his name. If he repeated his run from Leopardstown in Feb I don’t think this mediocre bunch would get anywhere near him. At some point it should all click over fences and i’ve a feeling it could be today. Davy should race prominently and track the pace. If he gets him travelling and jumping, holding his position, he’ll make 11/2 look generous. Gordon Elliot has a fine record at the track in the last year and his record with chasers that PU LTO are decent, esp in 2019 to date. Davy is in superb form, 6/22,12p in the last 14 days (he’ll give this horse plenty of confidence) and he rides the track well also.

Of the rest… I didn’t like anything else at the odds – All The Answers has a rest pattern profile which suggests he’s hard to train. He’s won after such breaks before and is the least exposed over fences. He does have it to prove from this mark but wasn’t a value price to my eyes. He’s worth taking on. Lakemilan can beat me at 4/1 also. They can hold him up which I never like, esp at this price point, and he does have some questions over fences and this trip. But he’s lightly raced and has pieces of form which suggest he could take this. He was a C D winner over hurdles but some of his chase efforts suggest he may be best over further. I thought this may be too sharp for Monbeg Chit Chat, esp at this track and I can leave the others. Presenting Mahler is an admirable mare but is thoroughly exposed and is 0/16 in races worth more than 20k to the winner. She looks to have gone out of form also.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

None. Nick is taking a few days off from tipping

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Jockeys/Chasers

7.50 Killarney – Old Supporter (16/1<)

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

4.10 Stratford Review…

The tip… Between The Waters… I’ll never be too annoyed with a 2nd place, especially when I think no more could have been done to win. He’s run his race, received a decent ride for me, and has got beaten by a more progressive rival who had more in hand. Page Fuller settled him well, got him jumping and crept into it, never too far off the pace on the second circuit. When she went for home turning in I thought game over, but up loomed the winner.

This was the run of an in-form horse who may now be difficult to place. But he travels well and generally jumps well. This 2m6f may have stretched him in the final furlong but he had the right horses around him. (losing to an unexposed one, the fav just behind him) These efforts may start taking their toll soon, but he could be of interest NTO, depending on opposition and price.

The winner…

Take Em Out >>>

You get nothing in this game for lazy analysis. I didn’t watch his run back LTO at Ffos Las. Poor, and I got what I deserved. I made a rash judgement that I didn’t like the numerous breaks he’d had and that his inexperience may catch him out – foolish. This horse had placed twice in points and if I’d bothered to watch that Ffos Las effort I’d have taken confidence from his jumping. I’d have also realised what a brute of a horse he is – and in that context it’s no shock connections have taken their time and he’s no doubt taken a while to fill into his frame/strengthen etc. He also is best on decent ground and hurdles were only ever there as an intro to racing life.

Given he’d placed in points (running on) and placed at Exeter over 2m 7f (running on/slowly run race) over timber on his last start of 2018, it should have been no shock that he was outpaced at Ffos Las over 2m3f. And he no doubt needed the run also! Watching the video back that’s all obvious and he was given a gentle time of it up the straight.

At Stratford then he’d had the experience of a chase run and was stepping up in trip to 2m6 ½ furlongs which given his point runs and his run LTO was an obvious/positive move. Up to this point in his career he’d only won a weak 4 runner maiden hurdle but at least he’d won a race, which is always a positive.

I got the decision right with the fav but got Take Em Out badly wrong and in the context of the race/opposition his early morning 11/1 or so allowed a risk to be taken. Easy to say in hindsight of course.

TIM VAUGHAN POINTERS

(stats from start of 2016)

Looking at his overall record it’s clear he does much better in handicap chases than hurdles. A 14.77% win SR vs 9.49% over timber. It could be the whole operation is geared towards buying potential chasers of the future, which may be the case at most jumps yards but not all.

In handicaps | chases (covers standard and novice handicaps) with those horses having their first ever start over fences under rules (exc any Point to Point runs) (so 0 chase runs) he is…

49 bets / 3 wins / 11 places

I think it’s fair to say many are given a gentle introduction to the chasing game.

I’ve tried to find a ‘micro angle’ ‘way in’ for standard handicap chases (not Novice hncps) but I’m struggling.

However…

  • Handicap Novice Chases
  • 1+ run in handicap | chases
  • 2016 >

73 bets / 20 wins / 24 places / 27% win SR / +55 SP / +67 BFSP / AE 1.44 / Chi 3.29

  • All winners have been 16/1< SP, albeit only 4 sent off above this price.
  • 11 of those winners were beaten more than 10+ lengths LTO
    • 7 of those were beaten by more than 30L or Did Not Complete.
  • Those stats are from 17 different horses, suggesting a clear MO to my eyes.

 

Vaughan would generally have moderate horses and he may have spotted a gap in the market with these Novice Handicap Chases, preferring to target those with the right horses, rather than building up experience in novice chases before going into standard handicap chase company (who by their nature generally include many more experienced chasers, possibly more competitive etc)

I don’t tend to play in Novice Handicap Chases very often, but I’ve saved that micro above, will pay more attention to his runners hitting said ‘rules’ and take a much closer look at those seemingly thumped LTO. (hence why a few go in at decent odds no doubt)

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Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Quick one on your pick yesterday Josh, again thought travelled best in the race coming to the 2nd last then seemed to come off the bridle a bit early I thought. Point is tho does it ever put you off having a claimer on board??
    it does for me, aware they know a huge amount more about racing than me but just speaking from experience of thinking before that that’s what’s cost me a race, usually a jumping problem iv thought previously where they don’t seem to fill a horse full of confidence coming to the crucial last few fences. had a bit of that feeling with yours yesterday I think it was at the 2nd last. Maybe I’m wrong and aware that the pro’s make mistakes jumping obviously but I’m sure nowhere near as much, just wondered if it’s anything you or anyone else on here ever takes into consideration

    1. Claimers never put me off, Bryony Frost was a claimer till late on last year, think it was November, anyways it would never put me off, the trainers sometimes use them to take weight off and do so to great advantage. As with all sports there will be one or two that come to the fore each season, they then lose their claim and as the transition between claimer to professional hits home its then sink or swim.
      Jonjo junior atm is really good on hurdlers, a little less so on chasers, but, he will get there! The amateur jockeys have all been point to pointing, so, most of the time there are top jocks within their ranks, again you have to be selective! All top jockeys in both codes have been conditionals at some point in there careers, that`s what you need to remember above anything!

    2. Oh yep I will be put off esp if they’re inexperienced, and more so over fences, may not know the horse and/or don’t have course form. That wasn’t the case with Fuller yesterday who’s a fine little rider for me and in that race I wasn’t going to be put off – she knows the horse very well and didn’t miss a beat with him yesterday – I think she’s just been outstayed by a more progressive/better handicapped rival- as simple as that. I don’t think she went for home too soon- esp if you’re on a rhythm chaser and those who can take some cajoling at times, it’s best to just keep them rolling and I prefer rides to ride the horse as if they will stay – turning off the bend I thought game over, only to see the winner storming into it, having got outpaced down the back – looks like he will relish even further/a more galloping track, if they can keep him sound.

      jockey is so important, especially in chases – and with everything comes down to price and risk versus concerns / unknowns. A top chase jockey can of course make all the difference.

      I don’t think she could have done anything different yesterday that would have changed the result at all.

  2. usually I’d always check if the claimer been on before and obviously you’d think no problems if have been, but like I said above mistakes normally come at the crucial fences and it’s fine margins a lot of the time

    1. oh for sure… i can be put off pro jockeys being on a chaser for the first time say – take the fav at Newton Abbot for Tizzard who was coming on the 3 timer – he was never big enough price but Jonjo junior was on as Harry had to ride for his boss – but the latter had got to know him and had got him jumping the last two times – but even he made the odd niggly error – not the best of jumpers esp when under pressure. Junior jumps on, who’s still inexperienced in the grand scheme of things esp in chases – and they were never really in sync, making numerous errors which caused him to fade in the end.
      One of main reasons for my test pick above is due to Russell being on, on a chaser who he’s ridden before and did well on him, and who’s jumping has been scratchy at times – but he’s a massive upgrade on LTO’s jockey, and he’s an upgrade on Sean F and Kennedy over fences – well there’s not many better than Russell, still.
      You can’t underestimate the importance of good jumping and rhythm in a chase – which is maybe one of reasons I like them so much – no amount of speed figures, or data this, data that, will get away from old fashioned replay watching to see how horses jump/travel etc.

      Mine didn’t make a mistake yesterday from what I could see having watched it back? the winner made two bad ones inc the last, but still had plenty in hand. Mine slowed down into the last but I think he was getting tired – maybe that trip just stretched him – as the 2nd/3rd just stayed on at the same pace thereafter, going up and down on the spot somewhat. he may find another chase in him but is open to attack from better handicapped ones now, and will need to be well placed. Each chase run takes something out of them also.

      1. Yes you’r right there Josh iv just watched it back again, does slow down at the last but the winner just had more left in the tank
        Totally agree with you on replays, i love watching back to check stamina and jumping technique surely the best way, cant wait for jumps proper to come back around

  3. 19:20 Killarney
    DAKOTA MOIRETTE 1pt win 6/1 365
    MONBEG CHICHAT 1pt win 8/1 gen

    write ups later.

    1. DAKOTA MOIRETTE
      Near enough everything i was going to say, Josh has already done above. GGinstown clearly love this course as De Bromhead and Elliott do well at Killarney. Although De Bromhead is a little out of form recently. Dakota could be anything, judging by the drift, it looks as though this may be a stepping stone for Galway at the end of the month, we shall see?
      MONBEG CHITCHAT De Bromhead does well in this race and can only think it must be his lack of form that is keeping the price out on this fella, his speed is key here and hopefully if he keeps up with DM, he could outgun him and Davy, just hope i haven`t gone for the wrong ones from each trainer, but, it looks as though they will bully the others out of it.

      as always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select this evening.

  4. COLINS BETS
    2.05 Ayr Amazing Grazing BOG 11/2
    3.50 Ripon Bossipop BOG 10/1
    6.40 Wolverhampton Wild Eric BOG 9/2
    7.30 Windsor Royal Birth BOG 11/2
    ELITE BETS
    5.10 Ayr Kajaki BOG 11/2
    7.00 Windsor Kingston Kurrajong BOG 5/1
    Colin

  5. Well would you believe it the ew heinz delivered yesterday and on a sunday too! £99.28 and when added to the £1.16 from the day before takes me over the £100 mark. So £100.48 returned from £39.99 staked. Now I know most mere gambling mortals would be happy with this but I’m going for at least a cool million profit before I shall be contented so on to today.

    2 ew heinz today both with the big £11.40 total stakes on each..

    3:40 ayr tommy g
    5:20 ripon burnage boy
    5:35 downpatrick yeats mardy
    6:10 Wolverhampton paddy elliot
    7:40 Wolverhampton assimilation
    8:30 Windsor geetanjali

    3:40 ayr howzer black
    4:40 ayr outside inside
    3:50 ripon bossipop
    7:00 Windsor sash
    7:30 Windsor iconic knight
    8:20 killarney myrons

    1. Love these bets Colin, great fun and a chance of mucho dosh!! Thanks for posting, I wait with baited breath!!
      Kind regards, Tom.

      1. Haha thanks Tom. As I said to silver i’m determined to land a big one and as you say they’re a bit of fun too. If I land the million I’ll get the first round when josh organises the big meet up!

  6. Poor day on the grass,so im looking at the evening meeting at wolvs.Tom Dascombe has great profit figures with his 3yo’s.6.40 wild eric and 7.40 Liberation Day.The 15/2 on Wild Eric has gone but I think Liberation Day still represents value at 9/1.Coming back to a course that he is 2/2 at.Might be that artificial surface is his forte

  7. Lot of very close looking races at Ayr today but one that has sparked my interest is Glengarry 11-1 in the 3-40, first time blinkers applied and drops back into a C4 , drawn 8 0f 8. is up against some 3yo’s who could improve but if all 8 stay in might be a bit of ew value , £2-50 ew

  8. Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    7.00 Windsor Capriolette BOG 14/1
    7.30 Windsor Iconic Knight BOG 5/1
    7.40 Wolverhampton Assimilation BOG 5/1
    Other 3 trainers that i watch not put their views up yet.
    Colin

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