Members Daily Post: 14/07/19 (complete)

chase test tip x1 + video preview, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Perth

3.15 –

Ebony Rose   (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A

General Allenby   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 11/2 

5.00 – Play The Ace   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 5/2 

5.35 –

Promise Of Peace   (all Hc’s)  ES+  14/1 S3A

Reivers Lodge   (all Hc’s) 7/1

Stratford

5.20 – Regulation   (all Hc’s,micro runs) H3 I1 9/4 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/81, 27p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

None, no 2m7f+ C4+ handicap chases to attack, and I don’t wish to attack the novice handicap at Perth.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (0/0)

4.10 Strat – Between The Waters – 1 point win – (bet365/WH/BV)

that’s all for today, as of 08.55, write up on the way…

VIDEO preview incoming…

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

None. Nick is taking a few days off from tipping as per comment below. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

4.45 Strat – Espinator

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

5.55 Strat – Rasasee

Trainers to follow 

2.40 P – Amalfi Doug

5.35 P – Mrs Davies

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.35 Strat- Mystic Sky

 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

  1. I’ve been absolutely shattered the past week or so, so given everything is going wrong right now am going to take a few days off.

    1. Enjoy the break. You can watch my golf tips drive and putt their way to glory.

      Saturday racing was a bit nasty from a punting view I thought. I may take up competitive knitting instead??/

    2. Nick
      Feel for you for there is nothing worse that a bad run for which myself Colins bets are on this year, the worst in a long time confidence and and the slight risks become more distant and more negatives become the norm kicking out bets which win and have done plenty of this myself this year.
      OBEs advice if may be so bold is while you have your break to reflect and review take a look at your selection method have you been tweeking over a period of time and may not be realising that it as been happening, if so get back to the winning formula which was winning, and confidence will come flooding back.
      All the best
      Colin

      1. Thanks Colin but this isn’t a break due to a lack of confidence just that I am mentally shattered right now. Work is absolutely busy and take a lot out of me and I just want to re-charge my batteries.

  2. Morning,

    Well I was going to take the day off also, but, with a decent class 3 race at Perth I decided to give that a go, now, you may call me mad, but, think these two stand out above the others and the favourite I think has had it`s better days behind it, could be wrong of course, but, these two interested me and we will play to keep things ticking over in my head.
    CHIRICO VALLIS 7/1 gen 1pt win
    This was available at 9/1 last night and some money has come for it, so, did some digging and after a wind op can only assume this must have worked and it`s “flying” on the galllops, so to speak. Has no course form, but, goes well fresh anyways and has clocked up some decent times over the 2m previous. He has travelled some distance here from Wiltshire also, so, can only assume they have come for one thing and i do like a Mulholland horse with Coleman on board!!
    RAVENS TOWER 5/1 gen 1pt win
    Nico on board, last time they joined forces at Perth they only just missed out as Owen na view slipped the field and won comfortably in the end, fast finishing RT and NCD could do nothing though and i believe he will ride RT closer up with the pace this time, loads of pace/ speed to boot I would have this closer to 2/1 than the favourite and is the other selection in a very tight looking race, maybe down to one of these to “finish with a flurry!”.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Mad????? Subjective judgement required there. However well done for having a go.
      A general question to all…..what do you do re lessons learnt when any selections you make that lose? I try to go over them to see what went wrong? Usually you can find a few small things that you could have done better but really you are looking for the bigger errors. An interesting one On Saturday was not backing Ten Sovereigns when it had been backed, ‘The Lads’ had their money on, as Josh picked up on via Twitter.

      1. I thought Ten Sovereigns was overpriced at 10/1 so backed Friday. Thought he ran ok first time back over 6f. Thought AOB would have had to change his training regime for sprinting so with a better prep for this thought 10’s was a fair play.
        As for reviewing losers, this is something I have been thinking I need to do. It’s just a time thing really. Finding it hard enough to invest enough time to source a bet in first place. Maybe a review of results before attacking next days bets maybe the way to go for me even if that means less time for finding bets. The discipline of doing this is the tricky part.

        1. cracking bet, well done, and the right logic, which alas I had after the race… turning these classy horses back to sprinting is some training effort and does take time, especially mentally it seems. As AOB said they’d been training him for 8f which is clearly very different to sprinting with their methods- Newmarket had taken plenty out of him, is clear now they hadn’t got him spot on for sprinting at Royal Ascot but that experience had helped and they’d done something at home since no doubt also – and then it all clicked mentally for him at home- you can see why they piled in early , given they time everything and he’d demolished the clock on his last piece of work to the extent they ‘knew’ he’d be hard to beat, if repeating those efforts at home. Market moves from that ownership group/yard are more significant than others I think, esp in these big races – such is their meticulous approach to detail, timing of horses, and of course they have so many to compare them to, and plenty of historical records I suspect. Quite the outfit.
          Anyway, that was a cracking bet, well done.

          reviewing… always tricky – that’s where focusing/specialising can help, esp if short on time- I think I should be backing the winner of every race I play in, so will always try to look back and see a) what I got wrong with my losing selections and b) what did I miss about the winner etc – what could I have thought about differently pre race. I think that helps you improve over time, slowly chipping away.

          1. Not backing Ten Sovereigns hurt as followed him ever since his debut win until yesterday. Thought it was interesting that Ladbrokes were the firm that went 10/1 given that they always seemed to have the inside of AOB stable and usually shortest when “expected”. The post race interview clearly highlighted why “the lads” piled in. Now he’s rebound his mojo will be surprised if Ten Sovereigns gets beaten again given good ground or firmer over 6
            But my punting has fallen off a cliff in July so wouldn’t advise anyone following me in but like the look of Reivers Lodge in the last at Perth today

    2. Martin, I try not to dwell too long on “What could have been!”, the race i went for yesterday was a classic case of the pace of the race not playing out, when i looked at it there was one front runner in my mind, (Belmount), so, i analysed the race accordingly and thought if STD get`s a soft lead, then the rest of the race will pan out accordingly. Unfortunately they went too hard too early and the race fell apart, letting old Henryville coast along and then through to lead quite easily. If I would have known that beforehand, then yes I would have looked at the race differently. You can only play what you think the race will look like in your head so many times before thinking you know what I got that right, or, like yesterday…I got that wrong! I love watching races over and over again, you get a “feel”, hopefully for how the race will play out, nine times out of 10 though it doesn`t and that is what is so fascinating about the puzzle that Josh goes on about! Form study is all about that, I know Josh doesn`t like gut instinct, but, sometimes it works, sometimes you can over think a race and then that is also dangerous as you can then get confused as to that horse beat that horse and then you cannot see the wood for the trees. Hope that makes sense, it is my interpretation of things and always happy to stick my head above the parapet!

      1. Yep, i’m still not sure what I think to that race yesterday!
        As certain as you were that Belmount would lead, i was certain that Tizzards would lead based on recent running styles etc – but he is a fiddly jumper and Junior didn’t get him in a rhythm – (he’s work to do over fences, but again highlights the skill of Harry Cobden who’d been riding him recently – and an example of the negative impact of a change of jockey on a chaser, when you think it’s a downgrade, and with animals that may take some knowing)

        On reflection I think it was just a crappy race of mediocre summer jumpers, in general. I don’t think they have gone too quickly – Harry was close to the pace throughout and his one has stayed there, came second. If they had gone too quick you’d have expected him to drop away imo.

        I wasn’t that close to henryville – I was confident he’d be held out the back, he’s a tricky customer, he’d yet to win without a hood, had always been a keen going sort , was 11, awful form when last seen, and would need a fair bit of luck in running – however, this was a much weaker race than had been running in and had 84 days off – the Bowens are very good at bringing these older horses back to life it seems. The yard may have been in better form also. I do think from that mark, given his back class, he has just outclassed them – at his best he was entitled to demolish them, was just a case of working out what level he may run up to today and none of us got that right. But, i’ll rarely be near an 11 yo who’ll be held up last!

        GL at Perth – I looked at Ravens Tower but just talked myself out of him but I think he’s the main danger provided he comes on for his last run and enjoys going chasing again. I actually thought The Flying Portrait may hack up here IF he doesn’t have an adverse reaction to the visor. But 7/4 wasn’t big enough. He could make all and they won’t see which way he’s gone. I thought this was a poor bunch of chasers and he ran a 136 on RPRs LTO, miles better than anything else in here. Maybe that was deceptive, we shall see. Hopefully one of you two dots up if he blows a gasket (which is possible)

        1. Hi everyone, Hindsight is that wonderful thing that if you could bottle would cost more the Frankel on your filly.
          I to tipped up Belmount yesterday, Me reasoning was won at distance and on the going, go’s well fresh, the Twiston-Davies’s only runner, ride for Sam at the meeting, my negatives were last 2 runs had he fallen out of love with the game and he has never won above a class 3. What I missed was that the winner had won off 147 in the past and here on 132, the Bowen’s are good at rejuvenating horses from other yards just hard to know when they are going to strike.
          Luckily I did solve the 4.10 for the people from work who were at the meeting, Doctor Look Here’s three runs after a 2 year lay off were over to short a distance, stepping up 6.5 furlongs was what he needed, the Gardner’s are very friendly with the Pipe’s for anyone that isn’t aware, had won off 116 in the past and any going come’s alike to this one, my problem like many people’s is time. still have to work to pay the mortgage and keep daily spreadsheet’s which I fill up with other info to try to solve the puzzle that is Baseball in the summer and Ice Hockey in the winter.
          So I have learn’t that more in depth analysis is required to get closer to solving the puzzle that is Horse Racing and don’t force a selection in a race if there are negatives.
          Good Luck everyone whatever you back today.

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 3.10 – Gossamer Wings on 5th run @ 10
    P 3.15 – Rainy City on 1st run @ 11
    S 4.10 – Cornish Warrior on 1st and 2nd run @ 18

  4. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    4.10 Stratford Robin Des People BOG 5/2
    July + 28.875
    Jan to 13th July + 94.341 treading water over the past 2 months still an outstanding performance so far this year.
    Colin

    1. Plenty of near-misses over the last two months, though, Colin.

      P/L might look like treading water, but you’re on the right losers if there’s such a thing.

      Chris

      1. Thanks for that Chris and yes i do agree about the right losers, also no ew or night before fantasy prices for which you would struggle to get £50 on, wonder what the points profit would be with the night before prices.
        They are put on around 10am when the market as settled and most N/Rs have been declared and the majority not the minority can achieve the prices.
        Cheers
        Colin

    2. can’t bemoan +94 points in 7 1/2 months Colin, well done. In fairness after that blistering start to the year you were due a quiet couple of months or so! 🙂 It will start chugging along soon enough no doubt, July isn’t looking too shabby!

      1. Thanks Josh
        Sadly the punter and tipping services cannot see after the last months results not long term profit, after June’s loss of 25 points, out of two services trialing Elite one stopped the trial before end of June stating it was poor and this was after he threw his rattle out of the pram because he found out also putting it through long term friend Neil’s company who knows me and he his continuing the trial.
        Colin

        1. ah, well -25 to 80 points and sometimes worse just happens – that’s the game, esp when straying away from top of the market which long term in my view is the only way to succeed. Long fallow periods can be part of the game. It’s easy to say that obviously, dealing with it is another issue and most just can’t get through such long runs. They are hard to get through, you have to believe in historical live results, the method, and the future – you have to get to that place before betting on X, and then stick with it – of course we know the only way to do that is with a BANK! and a sep one for each sep approach, arguably, esp when approaches are different – at the beginning of my journey i dived in too hard – you have to start small and even at £2 per point depending on approaches you follow the total banks can still be a few hundred. You have to be prepared to lose it all, and you have to be very patient. Of course the idea of not winning much betting £2s or £5s for an age doesn’t excite plenty of people, but the alternative is to bet bigger and then bail when losing runs of 20/30 + etc. This game of discipline is tough mentally, and recent months on here with various angles have been testing.
          Albeit many different approaches to managing such risk. I think our own Martin C has his own risk management approach which works for him – stopping following X when out of form and trying to judge when to follow again etc, but that takes experience and bottle. There’s no approach on my radar, both here and the various other service owners I know etc, that haven’t at some point in the last 5 years had a very fallow period, and many lost points in a block of 3-8 months or so. That’s the game.
          Josh

    1. Cheers. All comments are always read and absorbed haha. I do need to work on getting those race preview vids in the 7-10 min range though. A mix anyway.

  5. Theflyingportrait (best price 2/1) is an entry for Ben’s Summer Stunners in the 3.50 at Perth today.

  6. Stop the press Troubadour romps home to give me a winner from the 10 acca horses that ran yesterday!

    Todays ew heinz
    Fairyhouse
    2:00 mid winster
    3:45 hey pretty
    4:20 clonville
    4:55 whitsunday island
    Stratford
    3:35 steel wave
    4:10 between the waters

    £11:40 staked

    Ew lucky 15

    3:15 Perth green zone
    3:25 sligo mr moondance
    4:35 sligo lleyton
    3:35 stratford mystic sky

  7. Me and Josh got seconditis today, poor races these summer jumps meetings…..might go on holiday for 4 months next year, we do like a good puzzle though…been done by one staying on in each of our chosen races!!?

    1. Oh i’ve been doing ok on these good ground chases haha – I don’t mind seconds, I do mind being so dismissive of winners such as that Stratford one! As always makes so much sense post race- I didn’t like his rest patterns as such, wasn’t sure if he’d been tricky – but placed twice in points, best form on good/firm, returned LTO after long break over 19f – ran well to a point when prob needed it and was visibly outpaced- step up in trip 3f and ran today as if he’d get another 3. Was hoping my more experienced one may do for him but he was in the ‘could be anything’ category in general, let alone fences, esp from that mark. He was 11s. Damn. Next time! 🙂

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