Members Daily Post: 13/07/19 (complete)

Nick’s tips x3, Section 1 (complete) , test zone, Sat trends, Newm Quals

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot

4.45 – Sizing Tara   (micro class) 9/1 

5.55 – Ruffling Feathers   (m runs) 11/2 

 

Bonus Irish

Limerick

5.40 – Shanpallas   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 25/1 S3A S2A

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FLAT

Ascot

None

Chester

2.35 – Pass The Gin   (3yo+) G1 11/2 

4.20 – Garden Oasis   (m class) 16/1 

 

Newmarket

None

 

York

3.50 – Pivoine   (all Hc’s) 14/1 

4.25 – Flintrock    (all Hc’s) 6/1 

 

Hamilton

6.05 –

Robot Boy    (m dist)   w1 9/2 

Hard Solution    (m class)  w1  w2 H1 I1 5/1 S1

Northern Society   (m runs) I3 G3 14/1 

6.35 –

Amazing Grazing   (m class) I3 10/1 

Dancing Rave   (m’s class and runs)  w2 G3 6/1 

Autumn Flight   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+ 16/1 S3A

7.05 –

Tor   (m runs) 12/1 

Sioux Frontier   (m runs) 14/1 

Regal Mirage   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 10/1 S3A#

8.05 –

Move In Faster   (3yo+) 8/1 

Crazy Tornado   (m runs) I3 14/1 

Juniors Fantasy   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 G3 9/2 S3A#

9.05 – Ventura Royal    (m class) H3 9/2 

 

Salisbury

None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/81, 27p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

None from me today. I thought that 3.35 looked competitive enough with 4 LTO winners and another arriving in good form. I couldn’t really find a way in at the prices so i’ll leave it. LTO was the race to wade into Ballylongford I fear but i got him wrong that day. He’s the only pace angle in this unless team Bowen change things up, as they can do. He did hack up again LTO and if Jonjo gets on with him he should be the one to catch but I didn’t think 7/2 was overly generous given there does look more depth to this than his last two races. 

The other handicap chase on the card is poor quality so i’ll avoid.  

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Yesterday’s pick turned out to be rubbish- game over after 2f really, held up last, never really going, appears he had an off day and is in the ‘cant be trusted’ category. I wasn’t close enough to Dr Robin for my liking given he was a LTO winner. He’d clearly just returned to form there and transferred it back to fences – I was put off by his three chase runs before that but he had the ability to win that race and it was there to be stolen from the front. I suppose no shock one of the Bowens did just that. 

At least my Flat ‘through the card’ eyes are working ok, surprisingly… 4/15, +30 the last two days. Something to be said for thinking less at times! 🙂 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

1.45 Ascot – Eh Bah Gum – 1 point EW– 10/1 (gen, 1/5,5p gen) 

2.50 Ascot- Modern Millie – 1 point EW – 9/1 (betfS/PP) 8/1 (gen) 

3.30 Newm – Burn Sugar – 1 point EW – 11/1 (Lad/Coral, 1/5,5p) 10/1 (gen, 1/5,5p) 

that’ s all for today, as of 10.09 when posted in comments 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

5.40 Lim – Shanpallas (16/1<) 

3.35 NA – San Satiro / Henryville

Saturday TJC

3.35 NA – Scoop The Pot 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

REPORTS >>>

#1   The Importance of Race Position In Handicap Chases : READ HERE>>> 

#2  July Cup Meeting 2019: Stats/Pointers/Trends : READ HERE>>>

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# 3 Saturday Big Race Trends : Newmarket + York: READ HERE>>>

Shortlists

(using stats in report above)

 

Newmarket Bunbury Cup  

Trainers (22 years > with runners)

  • Kynren (1/4,2p)
  • Vale Of Kent / Lake Volta (1/10, 4p)
  • Admiralty / Burnt Sugar (1/2,1p)
  • Ripp Orf (1/8,2p)
  • Zap (3/15, 6p)

Not won last two starts, and 11+ handicap runs leaves 3 >>>

Burnt Sugar / So Beloved / Lake Volta

 

York: John Smiths Cup

Trainers (22 years > with runners)

  • Mountain Angel (1/6,2p)
  • My Lord And Master / Big Kitten (2/12, 3p)
  • Another Touch (3/37, 7p)

The 10/10 stats leave >>>

Mountain Angel / Whats The Story / Mordin / Big Kitten /Hortzadar

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Newmarket July Meeting Day 3

1.50 – Light Blush 

2.20 – Victory Command 

2.55 – Kings Command / Year of The Tiger 

4.05 – Chaleur 

4.40 – Glorious Journey / Ten Sovereigns 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Morning,

    Well after the debacle yesterday, going to have a crack at a chase today,
    15:35 Newton Abbott
    ALLELU ALLELUIA 1pt win 5/1 gen
    This one is a tricky customer, but, always seems to run up with the pace and has plenty of cruising speed, and plenty in the tank so to speak, the only thing is, it has an off day every now and then, hence the bookies not putting it in as favourite.I would expect Richie to sit there and wait for the others to burn themselves out, then pounce late on. I know he meets San Satiro on worse terms here, but, SS clouted the odd fence here LTO and that can be the difference between winning and losing at Newton Abbott, especially on the run in.(from the last 2 fences i clocked SS and AA at 24 secs to the finish, Belmount from the same last 2 fences only managed 26 secs, both races on good ground, make of that what you will!).
    BELMOUNT 1pt win 14/1 gen
    Now, if this one is back in form it will take some beating, speed, pace and returning from a break are all in Belmount`s favour, he likes the course also and with STD up in the plate we should see a different animal, as for the rest of the season…who knows, he is another quirky one, but, fresh he is a different beast, the price in my eyes even at 12`s is too big. If he gets his own way up front, he could be hard to pass.

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Hi Stewart,
      It’s refreshing to see your analysis of the 3.35 at Newton Abbot, Some ladies from work are going today and asked me help with selections, I have told told Belmount E/W if 8 run. I backed it last night at 16/1. and your far better at this than me.

      1. Cheers Greg, you have to keep chipping away in this game, today unfortunately i picked the wrong outsider, tbf, he had course form and i had him at 23 secs from the last 2 fences to the finish this time, which means, it must have been rattling out there and to be fair Josh always says when they get older they lose a bit of speed! I agree and to a certain extent he has won because the pace was too quick early on, classic case of those coming from behind to win it!

  2. Eeh Bah Gum Ascot 13:45 1pt e/w
    Modern Millie Ascot 14:50 1pt e/w
    Burnt Sugar Newmarket 15:30 1pt e/w

  3. COLINS BETS busy day at the prices one winner will do
    Ascot
    1.45 Muthmir BOG 12/1
    1.45 Harome BOG 20/1
    4.35 Mind The Crack BOG 13/2
    York
    3.50 Aquarium BOG 28/1
    3.50 Fayez BOG 33/1
    Hamilton
    6.35 Amazing Grace BOG 15/2
    7.05 Regal Mirage BOG 9/1
    7.05 Dark Lochagar BOG 15/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.50 Ascot Ummalnar BOG 9/2
    3.25 Ascot Saroog BOG 9/4
    6.20 Salisbury Sundiata BOG 5/1
    8.05 Hamilton Juniors Fantasy BOG 9/2
    Colin

  4. Usual mad, stupid Saturday racing with a glut today and nothing for the rest of the week…two jumps meetings tomorrow in the middle of the flat season, shows you exactly the idiotic BHA schedule for racing…couple of C3’s in the middle of the week, picks up a bit Friday then back to the usual overload next Saturday , so feast or famine time again…..so, so, detrimental to the future of racing…soon the racing will become virtual and the tracks will only put on concerts before the racing is done and you will only be able to watch racing in the virtual world except for the big meetings in both codes two or three times a year…anyway on to today:

    1.50 Nmkt…..Tiritomba e/w

    Good pedigree, had a run, clocked a respectable 37.87 mph on debut which is above my average of my C4 benchmark so should handle the step up to a C3..dangers are the Appleby horse Light Blush , Baaqy ridden by Frankie who has Corals and Ladbrokes by the testicles (surprised they haven’t sent round the heavies to ‘ave a word –did happen in the day -) what a bunch of tossers they are, Craylands has a really good pedigree so would not put anyone off that one at 20/1.

    2.05 York Dark Shot e/w and saver on Poetry w/o

    Bookies managed to get runners down to 8…so just one to go to make it a sad 7…excellent way to shorten the odds and negate any each way big priced selections…well done chaps, carry on…keep up the good work screwing the punter….logic is the horse has the best mph clocking around 39.00 plus, which is better than anything else so should at least place Caspian Prince is a danger to Poetry and Dark Shot but at 10 yo prefer younger legs.

    2.40 York. Island Brave and Kelly’s Dino e/w.

    Price driven selections that should prove competitive to the top of the market especially Gold Moun who I see as the main contender to win…in truth, according to the speeds I have recorded it is a poor G3 with horses of average ability or just above so worth a poke at a gig priced horse to shake ’em up.

    2.55. Nmkt. Juan Elcano e/w @ 11/2.

    Kings Command the obvious danger but a bit of each way value the choice to win and save the stake if placed.

    3.10 Chester. Oh This Is Us w/o

    Sad 7 again so no e/w option… Selection based on being the fastest when all the adjustments for course, going and distance made.

    4.00 Ascot. Zaaki w/o and Awesometank e/w

    Still 8 runners….if the race gets too hot for the bookies watch another one bite the dust but at the moment on the figures they are the two best in the race and the e/w value is the Tank.

    4.40. Nmkt. Advertise w/o.

    Dream of Dreams is closely matched with Advertise as is Ten Sovereigns and Fairyland so I would not be surprised if any of the mentioned horses win, with Cape Byron being a bigger priced option but as there is not much juice in the prices regarding the ones I think will win so just the one bet selection win only.
    That’s all folks….good luck with whatever you decide on a tricky overburdened days racing…they do not call it Slippery Saturday for nothing.

    1. Well mentioned the winner and second in the boring bit ….thought Craylands was going to dot up….but in the selections no where near ……hope someone did them instead of my choice.

    2. Right to oppose the top of the market and thought Kellys Dino was going to place at least but did too much too soon chasing the pace which was a pretty unintelligent ride to be honest but unless jockeys are replaced by robotic androids not a lot that can be done….my other selection was just not good enough and the winner was 13.5 lengths behind Communique that dotted up recently so should have paid more attention to that run but did not believe it was that good and as the paced collapsed picked up the pieces…porr race overall in terms of quality as previously mentioned …onwards

    3. Oh This Is Us 2nd…seems to be the order of the day for me today not to have a winner but there you go, that’s racing

      1. Knocking on the door today John! Unlucky but always more pos than negs when getting in the frame.

    4. well, it had to happen 2nd again so at least this is consistent!!….nothing probably until the latter half of the week as the quality is not good then after Friday or Saturday will be away for 6 wks so only sporadic posts when possible…

  5. Nap of the day is…….3.50 York, Setting Sail, 15/2, 6 places, Skybet, 1.5 points each way.
    The horse looks to be improving and is being supported and needs to step up here and move up the grades. We shall see.

  6. Gosh it’s quiet here! Here are mine for today:
    3:35 NA Scoop the Pot
    4:45 NA Too Much To Ask
    5:55 NA Shows Over

    Good luck all 🙂

    1. So, failed to scoop the pot, perhaps it really was too much to ask and now the show is over? LOL, onwards and upwards 🙂

  7. Yesterdays accas were spectacular failures. 11 horses picked, 1 non runner and of the other 10 not one even placed. Impressively bad!
    £15.10 staked £0.00 returned

    Ew Canadian
    1:45 ascot muthmir
    4:35 ascot mind the crack
    3:15 york baraweez
    4:25 york my reward
    5:35 york troubador

    Ew heinz
    2:40 york kellys dino
    2:50 ascot modern millie
    3:25 ascot ship of the fen
    5:50 Salisbury dubai souq
    6:05 hamilton everkyllachy
    7:05 hamilton regal mirage

    £5:20 on the Canadian, £11:40 on the heinz. It can’t be worse than yesterday….

    1. Well Leif if you are going to fail may as well make it as spectacular as possible!!! Always another day to turn things around so why not today? We have all been there so no worries…. All the best going forwards

      1. Haha no half measures here silver! I’m determined to land one. Good luck with yours today.

  8. Lambourn
    Nothing so far, Charles Hills and Richard Hughes not put anything up so far, if they do will update later.
    Colin

  9. If anyone was in any doubt that you need to be up with the pace to win a race in a decent size field, look at today. Just a few as an example, Ripp Orf, Raheen House, Advertise. I am not saying they would have won anyway but as the saying goes ‘the horse had already bolted’.

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