Members Daily Post: 12/07/19 (complete)

Chase tip x1 (+write up), Nick’s Tips x5, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Newm Day 2 Quals, Sat big race trend shortlists, York ‘through the card’

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

6.40 –

Souriyan   (micro TJC)  ES+ 14/1 S3A

Dr Robin   (m age)  w1 H3 6/1 WON 6/1>4/1

7.15 – Binn Boru   (HcH,m age and Hcdeb)   ES+ 8/1 S3A

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FLAT

Ascot

5.10 – Vegas Boy   (all Hc’s) G1 11/1 S6 UP

 

Newmarket(July)

3.00 – Ben Vrackie   (all Hc’s) 14,30 G3  11/4 

 

York

None. 

 

Chepstow

6.00 –

Crindle Carr   (m class) I3 22/1 

The Wire Flyer   (m class) 7/1 

6.30 –

Last Enchantment   (all Hc’s) 14/1 

Delirium   (all Hc’s)   ES+ 9/1 S3A

 

Chester

6.55 – Vivid Diamond   (m class) H3 G1 5/2 

8.30 – Bossipop   (m class) 13/2 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/80, 27p +35.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main

6.40 Ffos Las – Chimes of Dylan – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) UP

that’s all from me today 08.31, write up… 

I suppose this race looks competitive enough but I thought he was the overpriced one at 5s. He’s throughly unexposed, inc over fences, won comfortably enough LTO at the track, jumped very well (esp the last 2/3 fences which is always a good sign) and promised more to come. He’s related to stayers and it could be that this extra 3f or so brings out further improvement. He did get tapped for toe LTO for a furlong or two, scrubbed along, before coming back onto the bridle. He showed some tactical speed there, visually, which could be important in this race as there’s a chance it turns into a dash up the straight. Good ground or better seems to be important and he did look straight forward LTO. He beat Really Super over hurdles for Neil King, when she was still getting her act together, making all in 1st headgear. Today’s Really Super would demolish him over timber, obviously! 🙂 In any case that was a good performance. He then changed yards and ran on softer ground which doesn’t suit, before having an ‘educational’ run over fences at Uttoxeter. (I’ve noted that could be a tactic of Vaughan for 1st time chasers – held up, never put into race and seemingly awful runs can be looked at more sympathetically). He stepped forward LTO when winning. The yard are in fine form, the jockey rides the track very well, trainer and jockey have done well here in recent times, and with his course form and progressive profile, he was the one I wanted onside. 

I’ve a slight niggle he may be a monkey but i’ll take the chance as he looked uncomplicated LTO and there should be more to come. It was a solid RPR in the context of this race/his profile. 

The dangers… well I won’t be shocked if plenty get involved here but for one reason or another, in the context of price, I was happy to leave them. Marble Moon should have won for me LTO when tipped, but Wedge got it wrong, but only fractionally. He’s short enough given his hold up style and this track takes more jumping than Newton Abbot. I wasn’t sure over this trip whether it would be run to suit. That effort was only 7 days ago also. But I won’t be shocked if he wins, but he can beat me at his price. Trigger Nichol could bolt up – I assume there was a problem when last seen given that effort and the subsequent break. The yard are in form and he’s unexposed over fences. He has a question going LH, and after the break. And from this handicap mark. I didn’t think he was overpriced but a clear danger if A1. Fingerontheswitch is another LTO winner who seems to come alive now when dropped in class 4s. That win LTO has worked out well but he’s another who can be held up further back than ideal for me. The yard are a bit hit and miss at the moment also. Enough placed horses I suppose but 1/30,9p in the last 30 days. He isn’t unexposed/progressive like the selection. 

I can leave the other three for one reason or another. 

PACE/Race position… a tricky one, i’m not 100% sure who may lead. They do tend to bury Chimes of Dylan, or did LTO, as he can race fresh enough but he could still be learning. With the step up in trip they may be patient but I do hope they have him up there, or not far off whoever leads. He did come from near the back LTO, and he has the speed/jumping accuracy to do so (or did when last seen). 

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NOTE: I’m off to London – Hyde Park – on Friday from around 10am for the day/evening. A rare whole day away from the interweb.  As such all of Saturday’s content will follow Saturday morning. I’ll put a holding post. Some trends/stats handicaps for two big handicaps below. 

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

1.50 Newm – Aweedram – 1 point EW – 22/1 (1/5,4p gen) UP

3.25 Ascot – He’s Amazing – 1.5 point WIN – 28/1 (WH) 25/1 (gen)  UP

3.45 York – Thomas Cranmer – 1 point EW – 8/1 (1/5,4p gen) 4th, R4 

4.55 York – Excessable – 1 point EW – 6/1 (gen) (1/5,4p WH/SB/PP) UP, -2

7.45 Ffos Las – Master Dancer – 1 point EW – 17/2 (Lad/BetS/PP) UP -2 

 

that’s all from Nick today, as of 08.31…

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

7.15 FL – Birch Vale 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers 

6.40 FL – Dr Robbin (8/1<) 

Jockeys/Chasers

6.40 FL – Souriyan (9/1< best) 

LTO Winning hurdlers

7.15 FL – Khismet 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

REPORTS >>>

#1   The Importance of Race Position In Handicap Chases : READ HERE>>> 

#2  July Cup Meeting 2019: Stats/Pointers/Trends : READ HERE>>>

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# 3 Saturday Big Race Trends : Newmarket + York: READ HERE>>>

Shortlists

(using stats in report above)

 

Newmarket Bunbury Cup  

Trainers (22 years > with runners)

  • Kynren (1/4,2p)
  • Vale Of Kent / Lake Volta (1/10, 4p)
  • Admiralty / Burnt Sugar (1/2,1p)
  • Ripp Orf (1/8,2p)
  • Zap (3/15, 6p)

Not won last two starts, and 11+ handicap runs leaves 3 >>>

Burnt Sugar / So Beloved / Lake Volta

 

York: John Smiths Cup

Trainers (22 years > with runners)

  • Mountain Angel (1/6,2p)
  • My Lord And Master / Big Kitten (2/12, 3p)
  • Another Touch (3/37, 7p)

The 10/10 stats leave >>>

Mountain Angel / Whats The Story / Mordin / Big Kitten /Hortzadar

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Newmarket July Meeting Day 2

‘Qualifiers’ from the report above…

1.50 – Dark Vision / Oasis Prince / The Trader

2.25 – Divine Spirit 

3.00 – Secret Advisor 

3.35 – I Can Fly 

4.10 – Al Suhail / Kipling 

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York ‘through the card’ 

As requested by Jamie, I may have used up all my luck at Newmarket 🙂 >>>

2.05 – prob no bet race, Fanzone  2nd if you must just in case the Fav somehow doesn’t run race! 

2.40 – Oasis Fantasy UP

3.15 – Shades of Blue 2nd / Royal Intervention WON 11/1>6/1 

3.45 – Armandihan UP

4.20 – Mrs Bouquet WON 4/1>5/2

4.55 – Excessable UP

5.30 – Fastman  UP

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Hi Josh. You asked me to post on here to remind you of the through the card request for York on Friday if you’ve got time please. I’ve seen you’re going away Friday morning so don’t worry if you don’t get chance, I’m sure we’ll have a good time regardless of how the betting plays out.

    1. Hi Jamie… I’ve already done it :). Bottom of section 5 above. Looks a competitive day, EW may be wise on some and plenty of room to throw your own picks in. Yep day at the races usually fun but it is nice to cheer a winner or two so fingers crossed. Have fun.

      1. Sorry, I didn’t read all the way to the bottom before I posted. It’s been a long few days! Thanks for taking a look, it’s much appreciated.

  2. Good Morning,

    Got to be quick as I`m off early this morning, so, write ups later, but think Peregrine Run is beatable in the 19:50 @Cork price going quick on one of my selections though.
    DOCTOR DUFFY 15/2 gen 1pt win
    WOODLAND OPERA 13/2 gen 1pt win

  3. COLINS BETS
    3.45 York Mr Coco Bean BOG 8/1
    4.35 Ascot Ginger Fox BOG 13/2
    4.45 Newmarket Tommy Taylor BOG 11/1
    4.45 Newmarket Rum Runner BOG 14/1
    6.30 Chepstow Rose Crown BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.45 York Archie Perkins BOG 7/1
    5.10 Ascot Swindler BOG 4/1
    5.45 Ascot Markazi BOG 4/1
    Colin

    Special mention to Silver on his fine 20/1 winner yesterday, just like shelling peas to John!!!!

    1. Many thanks and remember Josh put this one up as well…I was overdue a win having come close on several occasions, hopefully more of the same to follow. All the best.

  4. My Yankee today
    3.35 N One Master
    8.30 Ches Powerallied
    6.40 Fl Chimes of Dylan
    8.10 Chep Good Luck Fox

    Canadian
    3.00 N Ben Verackie

    Mike

  5. Lambourn
    Charles Hills
    3.25Ascot Wafy BOG 10/1
    Ed Walker
    3.15 York Royal Intervention BOG 12/1
    4.35 Ascot Baryshnikov BOG 14/1
    5.10 Ascot Swindler BOG 4/1

    Jamie Osbourne and Richard Hughes not put their views up yet, i will put any bets up later.
    Colin

    1. I am tracking these Lambourn trainers and am employing a subjective view on how positive they are about the horses chances. We will see where we are at the end of each month.

      1. Messed about with them for about 6 months and overall impressed with them the 4 trainers for the flat are excallent who i put up the other day and still miss a few winners from them.
        Another one going to look more closely is Henry Candy, but he is hard to get right and a tad against him for Willie McFarland was in with this yard but we appeared to get losers, one day Candy had 5 runners which produced four winners and guess who got the loser! had several conversations with him over Candy.
        Dare i mention it Clive Holt in one of his books mentioned about taking note of what trainers say.
        Wonder if Newmarket or the North do one like Lambourn.
        Martin what i have recorded so far is win only in July are you going to record EW.
        Colin

  6. 3.35 Nmkt. Beshaayir w/o.

    This selection very closely matched with Qabala ….ran 37.59 mph at the Curragh over 8f with Beshaayir running 37.61 mph at the same track and over the same distance so very difficult to split them…matter of personal preference which is preferred as I think it is between these two…cannot have One Master as stats indicate that 3 yo and 4yo (6 apiece from 12 runnings of the race) win this race…. these are two that have posted the best mph. pity about the lack of runners put you could put both in othere selections yo may have in other races as part of multiples…just a thought on betting options. Will be back later with one or two other selections but a tricky day yet again with the lack of sufficient runners for solid selections.

    1. Very disappointing run from my selection but hats off to Oisin…did not let Frankie dictate and bossed the race…hopefully tomorrow will prove better.

  7. My nap of the day….wait for it…….

    3.00 Newmarket, Outbox, 1 point each way at 7/1. Group horse in a handicap!!!

  8. 3.15 York. selections: Perfection w/o…… with the other two Island Of Life/ Foxtrot Lady/ e/w …small stakes as tricky race.

    Short list to go at: they are in no particular order: Perfection, Archers Dream, Royal Intervention, Ocelot, Glass Slipper, Foxtrot Lady, Island Of Life

    Purely on speed, Perfection is the fastest 37.90: Archers Dream 37.76: Royal Intervention 37.76: Ocelot 37.17: Glass Slippers 37.74: Foxtrot Lady 37.61: Island Of Life 37.48.

    As you can see all very closely matched and very tricky to disentangle and may not have mentioned the winner in the above…on collateral form Ocelot has beaten Glass Slippers, and Perfection in some stage of the horses career…..and Glass slippers has also beaten Perfection….at 80/1 and despite beating some of the above previously the betting suggests this is not going to win and the trainer 0-24 with 4 yo plus, albeit the price is attractive so no for me….Archers Dream is too short a price so again not for me. Royal Intervention trainer 0-12 so would want more juice in the price about that one so not a bet for me. That leaves Perfection, Foxtrot Lady and Island Life.

    Favs 26%… 2nd Favs 20% in this race so at the current prices both the fav and second fav are value but in such a competitive race on paper not a backable price for me, hence the selections. Gd lck.

    1. Perfection now a non runner so both the e/w selections are the choices…..looks as if Corals and Ladbrokes…owned by the same scumbags are so afraid of Frankie they have restricted bets again on his rides for multiple…..total disgrace

  9. Hi Silver, backed both of yours earlier before seeing your post, now twice as confident 🙂

      1. Mentioned the winner in the short list but did not put it up as the trainers record was not good but Hanagan gave the winner a terrific ride so no complaints and was joint fastest with Archers but the latter never figured….apologies Cleafe…kiss of death on the pair i put up I’m afraid…no pea shelling, unfortunately!!!

        1. Like it
          Ed Walker shelled the peas today he said that should be fast away and should make all, so could be very hard to pass, totally correct in his assessment of the race.
          Colin

          1. Great shout…will pay more attention to the trainer comments you put up…looks a very productive angle

  10. Ew Canadian
    4:20 york iva go
    4:35 ascot ginger fox
    4:45 Newmarket breathtaking look
    5:30 york celebrity dancer
    6:30 chepstow tomorrows angel

    Total stake £5:20

    Not quite an ew heinz
    1:50 Newmarket the trader
    3:15 york perfection
    4:55 york excessable
    2:50 ascot brasca
    4:00 ascot hameem
    7:45 ffos las master dancer

    Stake £9:90

  11. Lambourn
    Jamie Osborne
    2.15 Ascot Return To Senders BOG 8/1
    5.10 Ascot Vegas Boy BOG 8/1
    Both been backed and Jamie only came on the site about 10 mins ago.
    Richard Hughes still not put his views up yet.
    Colin

  12. Lambourn
    Charles Hills
    4.10 Newmarket Dulas BOG 66/1 1/4 point win
    This one been on my mind for the past 3 plus hours, do not normally have a punt in 2yo races especially when only two have had a run and the other 12 are making their debut! madness!
    Charles Hills, VIEW not mine, this looks to be quite a hot race but he is a smart 2yo and his work at home has been very good.
    Thats it for today
    Colin

    1. I agree….did all the research for this one but baffled me and could not come to any conclusions, even looking at each of the pedigrees I could not decipher the runners chances so bottled it!!! I liked Al Madhar in terms of pedigree….Kipling clocked 36.17 mph over 7f ….the average is 36.98 so not a superstar!…Tsar looked ok too, …but far too many imponderables….gd luck with your selection….you are braver than me for having a go at this one!!

      1. Faith in Charles Hills he gave the Irish Derby winner at 14/1 he also gave one at Newcastle at 28/1 which won he also gave one which drifted from 9/2 to 9/1 and it won so price is not an issue.
        Charles words He is a Smart 2yo if thats his view then its good enough for me for a small dabble, win or lose Charles Hills views owe me nothing.
        Cheers
        Colin

        1. Agree that price is not an issue….just could not decipher the pedigrees of those that have not run so if you have a way in then go for it…hope it wins.

      2. Typical…Al Madhar wins and did not put it up but couldn’t as others closely matched on pedigree to make this a confident selection but that is racing …resepectable run from Dulas and Mr Kipling proved just average on the figures coming in 5th.

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