1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)
4.Micro System Test Zone
5.Any general messages/updates etc
1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
Afandem (micro age) 8/1
Diamonique (m class and age) H3 10/1
Lady Calcaria (m TJC) H3 I1 6/1 S6 UP
Caustic Love (m class and age) w1 w2 H1 I3 13/8
5.20 – Grimsdyke (m TJC) 25/1
5.55 – War Ensign (m TJC) 10/1
3.20 – Aubretia (all Hc’s) 11/1
3.55 – Hans Solo Berger (all Hc’s)9/1
7.35 – Highland Acclaim (3yo+) H3 I3 11/4
7.15 – Star Of War (m runs) H1 11/1 S6 UP 16/1, painful viewing, squeezed at start, held up, numerous traffic problems up straight, no run. May have been interesting with a clear passage but that’s racing. Looked like the run of an in form horse, who may need a stronger pace.
Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles, tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>
2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival)
Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/80, 27p +35.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)
None, no jumps racing/chases 🙂
(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised , May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)
3.00 Newm –
Blown By Wind – 1 point EW – 25/1 (Lad/BV/Coral) 1/5,5p gen UP, -2
Dazzling Dan – 1 point EW – 9/1 (betfs/PP) 8/1 (gen) 1/5,5p gen 3rd, +0.6
8.50 Newb –
Danecase – 1 point EW – 15/2 (uniB) 7/1 (gen) UP, -2
0/3, 1p, -3.4
That’s all for today from Nick, as of 08.08
4.Micro System Test Zone
5.Any general messages/updates etc
NEW REPORTS >>>
#1 The Importance of Race Position In Handicap Chases : READ HERE>>>
#2 July Cup Meeting 2019: Stats/Pointers/Trends : READ HERE>>>
PLEASE READ >>>
I’ve been pondering the blog’s content and for now I’m going to change the focus of my approach to Tipping, while conscious I should consult on the rest >>>
The Flat… I’ll be blunt… I don’t like tipping on the flat! 🙂 It has dawned on me that it’s jumps racing (and specifically chases) that runs through my racing veins. (for those of you who’ve been here since for a while, that won’t come as a shock! You’ll be wondering what took me so long to ditch my dabbles on the Flat) I enjoy analysing chases more than anything else, and indeed watching them.
At various times I’ve dabbled on the Flat with various ‘tipping tests’, whether to try and prove a point to myself or whatever, I’m not sure. But, such efforts are a waste of my time and mental energy. I don’t enjoy studying a flat handicap and struggle to mount the enthusiasm to do so consistently. I enjoy watching top notch Flat action and following the odds system, or indeed some others tips – but when it comes to my own analytical endeavours, not so much! So, I’m retiring from Flat tipping, which never really got out of test mode, for obvious reasons.
I don’t think any of you are here for my Flat tipping and my tipping efforts would be much better spent elsewhere 🙂
So… back to the Jumps… and my Members Tipping >>>
Daily Chase Tips: MAIN
These will be as they are now, with my focus on Class 4+, 2m7f+ handicap chases. Since I refocussed on my ‘race type of choice’ in late Feb the results have been very good. Plenty to build on and I wonder why I ever stopped with that laser like focus. Less can be more and when you’re trying to spin a few plates, it’s best I focus.
Daily Chase Tips: TEST
Staying chases above will always be my first port of call but I’ve decided when possible I should be spending more time on other handicap chases, those in the 19-22f range for a start. I may dabble on the odd 16f chase, but given my liking for staying chases, it makes plenty of logical sense to focus on the next rung down, given some of these horses will step up in trip in time. 3m+ chases are the only race type i’ve ever consistently focused on, hence why this is a ‘test’.
In effect I’m turning myself into a handicap chase ‘race adviser’, with a ‘specialism’ being the staying division. Outside of Section 1 and my Trainer Track Profiles qualifiers, much of my research efforts will focus on handicap chases.
It took me until February to realise I’d been neglecting the one tipping area I’d done consistently well in over time, and until now to realise that all my tipping and race analysis energy should be on the jumpers – and specifically handicap chases. It’s what I enjoy most and I should stop trying to turn myself into something i’m not.
So, nothing ground breaking, bar for me personally, as in part i’m admitting defeat on the Flat front. I don’t have the enthusiasm or energy to make punting on the Flat a success. Hopefully in time this will be an inspired decision, we shall see.
So, that leaves us with the following template for the Members Content >>>
TIPS (section 2/3)
- My Daily Chase Tips: MAIN (Staying Handicap Chases, 2m7f+… the big Grade 3 staying chases will remain in the free posts)
- My Daily Chase Tips: TEST (a new focus on other handicap chases, but with the staying chase tips being my first priority)
- My Jumps Festival Tips (Cheltenham the main focus as in previous years, with dabbles at Aintree , Punchestown and Galway. Including Handicap Hurdles, the only times I will tip in such races. Stats to assist you for all of them)
- Nick’s Tips (as they are now, inc tips on the Flat!)
Strategies/Systems (section 1)
- Strategies based on my Trainer Track Profiles (TTP) qualifiers in Section 1.
- Jumps: S1 and S3A#
- Flat: S6
- Other strategy qualifiers highlighted, to use as you please, using the links in the Key for further details. Eg the ‘where to begin’ and ‘other ideas’ links.
Research to use in your own punting/race analysis (section 1 / 4 / 5)
(I need to survey you on most of this to see what you use, what you don’t, what you enjoy, or want more of etc)
- Section 1 TTP Qualifiers, including the ratings pointers etc (ES+, w1/2, 14,30)
- Section 4: Micro System Test Zone – various trainer/jockey/horse angles to use as a starting point/way in.
- Big Race Trends/Stats/Trainer records
- I try and provide stats/trends for ‘the’ big field handicap of the week.
- Big Meeting/Festival Notes
- The Flat: There are more ‘Festivals’ on the Flat than over jumps, and as always I try to highlight some trainers, jockeys, TJC of interest, to use as you please.
- The Jumps: A focus on Cheltenham / Aintree / Punchestown / Galway
- ‘Ideas to Improve Your Punting Success’ – Reports with stats/ my opinions that could positively influence how you approach your betting/the members content, or give you ideas for further research, such as the latest report posted above.
The RTP Community
- That’s You! 🙂 The comments section, where ideas, opinions, research, tips etc are shared as they are now. (I plan to try some new engagement software asap)
- The Tipping Comp: Monthly comp with £30 and £20 cash prizes, as per now. Only 25 of you play regularly so room for plenty more of you to dive in!
I think that covers everything – it’s a case of working out what I can improve, what areas I could be doing better, or more of if there’s a demand. I do need to send you all a survey to assess what aspects you follow/use, and indeed why you’re here! I should talk to you more as there’s plenty I could no doubt be doing better, and I may be wasting some energy on areas that no one bothers with.
July Meeting Day 1
‘Qualifiers’ from stats report above
Nayef Road 14,30 H3 G3
Barbados H1 I3
2.25 -King Neptune
3.35 -Masar 14,30 I3 G3
4.05 -Dubai Paradise 14,30
5.10 – Wings Of Time 14,30 *
* trainer form (14,30) and ratings pointers for Info only, to help in your own deliberations. Ratings pointers as per The Key, the link to which is in section 1, if you’ve no idea what they symbolise! 🙂
In the last two years Appleby has seemingly targeted this meeting and a case could be made to not over think his, but we shall see. Nayef Road hits the Johnston stats that are 6/15, 10p, +78 BFSP at the last 5 meetings…
Newmarket Day 1
‘through the car’d (my parents are off to the races so I’d best pull together some lays… ahem…)
1.50 – Nayef Road – EW – 13/2 2nd
2.25 – Visinari – 10/11 UP/close ( no world beater just yet…)
3.00 – Blown By Wind 20/1 UP / Dazzling Dan 8/1 3rd
3.35 – Mirage Dancer – 9/4 2nd
4.05 – Miss Lucy 14/1 EW WON 20/1
4.40 – Turgenev – 6/4 UP
5.10 – Wings of Time – 9/2 WON 6/1
Nayef Road – I don’t really want to leave an MJ 3YO with the trainer meeting stats as per above when a decent enough price. He’s hardy, solid, in form, should run his race and this does look like his trip. SDS should have him front rank with no excuses. It does look competitive enough hence the EW and Danny T may well be down here for the fav in this.
Visinari – the ‘time boys’ are all over this one given his performance LTO – the time, the sectionals, his cadence/stride length etc, how the form is working out, natural progression etc – it apparently indicates this horse could be very very smart one in the making – of course, when he falls out the back of the TV here it will give ample hope that Sectionals etc won’t be essential for winning long term on the flat 🙂 Frankie is up, he’ll no doubt try and dictate – maybe he’s short enough but he could win like a 1/3 shot – one for the placepot, or to put in multiples maybe if that’s your thing – or to just watch and enjoy.
Blown By Wind / Dazzling Dan – well i’ve kept to Nick’s tips, he’ll have gone through this race much more thoroughly than I would have – the former has some decent form to his name, esp last year, with his first two runs this season decent enough. The ground could have been the excuse at York and a line can be put through the Chester run given his draw etc. A solidly run 6f on fast ground at this stiff track may be ideal for him and The Doyler jumps back on. He should race prominently, in a no excuses position. As should Dazzling Dan – he may even lead his side – he’s just solid and there should be more to come. I suspect over this trip he prefers a stiff finish and that could be the reason for building on that York run LTO. He may also want decent ground (2YO form can be deceptive- class may have got him through).
Mirage Dancer – I’d want to see more from Masar before taking a short price like that, given the injury he had. Clearly if rocking up to the level of his Derby win he’d take some stopping. Mirage Dancer is in form and given it’s Stoute it’s not impossible there is more to come even as a 5 year old. He was second in this race last year. Moore jumps back on and he should be in the right spot.
Miss Lucy – well, not a race to go mad on, or even play in unless you’re track side. Clearly Dubai Paradise may bolt up- the yard target this meeting/this race with 2 year olds, and they are in great form. But 11/8 for an unraced horse is short enough to my eyes. Miss Lucy – interesting at a price I thought given she has experience and may be transformed for this first run on fast ground, and also the step up to 6f. I’d hope her experience may help and I can’t think Burke has come down here just for the sake of it, with his 2 runners on the day. I suppose there was room in the box for one more. She may not be good enough but for change, interesting. Led Astray may be interesting also, as Bell is 5/18,6p with his 2 year olds on Turf in 2019 so far. Suspect Tudhope is here for the fav earlier in the card, and I don’t think he’d have had a choice of this one or the Haggas horse as a feeling he’s first dibs on Clipper Logistics owned horses, but I could be wide of the mark! If he did have the choice of the two that would make her more interesting.
Turgenev – Ahhh, the horse that cost me £1500 or so at Royal Ascot having ‘tipped’ two Frankie horses on the day, the first one winning, having backed them in a fun double and as singles. Frankie got too excited, as simple as that. Pumped full of adrenaline (you can’t blame him as he was on the 5 timer) he simply went too hard too soon on this one – as per the sectionals. That’s with hindsight of course and he nearly pulled it off. Anyway, this one should get a soft lead on the front I think and I expect a big run.
If you’ve read Dave Redman’s latest free Pace article on geegeez (you should) you’ll see the success of certain jockeys on the front end etc, and Dettori in class 1 races is superb (no shock, but very profitable) esp when riding for the boss.
Wings Of Time – well i’d best put up an Appleby horse! The yard are red hot, this one is unexposed, makes handicap debut and ‘could be anything’. His returned here 19 days ago after a break and under a penalty and could come on plenty for it. Maybe a hardier horse will have him but at 9/2 i’ll stick with him. The Varian horse looks well fancied and he did bolt up LTO.