Members Daily Post: 10/07/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Catterick

5.00 – Bee Machine (3yo+) w1 H3 7/1 

5.30 –

Chickenfortea (all Hc’s) 14/1 

Radjash (3yo+) 16/1 

Call Him Al (m dist,age,going) 16/1 

Moonlight Escapade (3yo+,m class) 25/1 

 

Lingfield

2.40 – Ban Shoof (m dist) w2 H3 18/1 

 

Yarmouth

3.50 –

Poetic Eva (all Hc’s) ES+ 11/2 S3A

Eve Harrington (3yo+) w2 H1 I3 9/4 

5.20 -Any Smile (all Hc’s,3yo+) 14 14/1 

 

Bath

6.00 – Prerogative (m going) H3 6/1 

6.30 –

Laylas Dream (m’s age,going) 12/1 

Spot Lite (m age and runs) 14,30  G3 9/1 

8.00 – Rose Hip (m’s age,going) w2 H3 I3 G1 11/8 S4 

8.30 – Sugar Plum fairy (m’s age,going) G3 9/1 

9.00 – Butterfield (4yo+,m going) H3 I3 10/3 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 16/80, 27p +35.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 4/86,22p, -53,)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/44,19p, -3.5)

 

No Tips on Wednesday. 

A note in section 5 below on my tipping moving forward…nothing too dramatic…

There’s also some pointers for this week’s July Cup meeting below. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End JUNE -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised , May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79)

No tips from Nick on Wed. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW REPORTS >>>

#1   The Importance of Race Position In Handicap Chases : READ HERE>>> 

#2  July Cup Meeting 2019: Stats/Pointers/Trends : READ HERE>>>

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PLEASE READ >>>

The future…

I’ve been pondering the blog’s content and for now I’m going to change the focus of my approach to Tipping, while conscious I should consult on the rest >>>

The Flat… I’ll be blunt… I don’t like tipping on the flat! 🙂 It has dawned on me that it’s jumps racing (and specifically chases) that runs through my racing veins. (for those of you who’ve been here since for a while, that won’t come as a shock! You’ll be wondering what took me so long to ditch my dabbles on the Flat) I enjoy analysing chases more than anything else, and indeed watching them. 

At various times I’ve dabbled on the Flat with various ‘tipping tests’, whether to try and prove a point to myself or whatever, I’m not sure. But, such efforts are a waste of my time and mental energy. I don’t enjoy studying a flat handicap and struggle to mount the enthusiasm to do so consistently. I enjoy watching top notch Flat action and following the odds system, or indeed some others tips – but when it comes to my own analytical endeavours, not so much! So, I’m retiring from Flat tipping, which never really got out of test mode, for obvious reasons.  

I don’t think any of you are here for my Flat tipping and my tipping efforts would be much better spent elsewhere 🙂

So… back to the Jumps… and my Members Tipping >>>

 

Daily Chase Tips: MAIN

These will be as they are now, with my focus on Class 4+, 2m7f+ handicap chases. Since I refocussed on my ‘race type of choice’ in late Feb the results have been very good. Plenty to build on and I wonder why I ever stopped with that laser like focus. Less can be more and when you’re trying to spin a few plates, it’s best I focus. 

Daily Chase Tips: TEST

Staying chases above will always be my first port of call but I’ve decided when possible I should be spending more time on other handicap chases, those in the 19-22f range for a start. I may dabble on the odd 16f chase, but given my liking for staying chases, it makes plenty of logical sense to focus on the next rung down, given some of these horses will step up in trip in time. 3m+ chases are the only race type i’ve ever consistently focused on, hence why this is a ‘test’. 

In effect I’m turning myself into a handicap chase ‘race adviser’, with a ‘specialism’ being the staying division. Outside of Section 1 and my Trainer Track Profiles qualifiers, much of my research efforts will focus on handicap chases.

It took me until February to realise I’d been neglecting the one tipping area I’d done consistently well in over time, and until now to realise that all my tipping and race analysis energy should be on the jumpers – and specifically handicap chases. It’s what I enjoy most and I should stop trying to turn myself into something i’m not. 

So, nothing ground breaking, bar for me personally, as in part i’m admitting defeat on the Flat front. I don’t have the enthusiasm or energy to make punting on the Flat a success. Hopefully in time this will be an inspired decision, we shall see. 

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Important Re-Cap

So, that leaves us with the following template for the Members Content >>>

TIPS (section 2/3)

  • My Daily Chase Tips: MAIN (Staying Handicap Chases, 2m7f+… the big Grade 3 staying chases will remain in the free posts)
  • My Daily Chase Tips: TEST (a new focus on other handicap chases, but with the staying chase tips being my first priority)
  • My Jumps Festival Tips (Cheltenham the main focus as in previous years, with dabbles at Aintree , Punchestown and Galway. Including Handicap Hurdles, the only times I will tip in such races. Stats to assist you for all of them)
  • Nick’s Tips (as they are now, inc tips on the Flat!)

 

Strategies/Systems (section 1)

  • Strategies based on my Trainer Track Profiles (TTP) qualifiers in Section 1.
  • Jumps: S1 and S3A#
  • Flat: S6
  • Other strategy qualifiers highlighted, to use as you please, using the links in the Key for further details. Eg the ‘where to begin’ and ‘other ideas’ links.

 

Research to use in your own punting/race analysis (section 1 / 4 / 5) 

(I need to survey you on most of this to see what you use, what you don’t, what you enjoy, or want more of etc) 

  • Section 1 TTP Qualifiers, including the ratings pointers etc (ES+, w1/2, 14,30)
  • Section 3: Micro System Test Zone – various trainer/jockey/horse angles to use as a starting point/way in.
  • Big Race Trends/Stats/Trainer records
    • I try and provide stats/trends for ‘the’ big field handicap of the week.
  • Big Meeting/Festival Notes
    • The Flat: There are more ‘Festivals’ on the Flat than over jumps, and as always I try to highlight some trainers, jockeys, TJC of interest, to use as you please.
    • The Jumps: A focus on Cheltenham / Aintree / Punchestown / Galway
  • ‘Ideas to Improve Your Punting Success’ – Reports with stats/ my opinions that could positively influence how you approach your betting/the members content, or give you ideas for further research, such as the latest report posted above.

 

The RTP Community

  • That’s You! 🙂 The comments section, where ideas, opinions, research, tips etc are shared as they are now. (I plan to try some new engagement software asap)
  • The Tipping Comp: Monthly comp with £30 and £20 cash prizes, as per now. Only 25 of you play regularly so room for plenty more of you to dive in!

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I think that covers everything – it’s a case of working out what I can improve, what areas I could be doing better, or more of if there’s a demand. I do need to send you all a survey to assess what aspects you follow/use, and indeed why you’re here!  I should talk to you more as there’s plenty I could no doubt be doing better, and I may be wasting some energy on areas that no one bothers with.

Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

41 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • I will comment later on this, but, I also am looking at what I’m good at and believe I too will be going down a similar path!

    Stewart 09/07/19 6:06 PM Reply


  • i would hate to lose anything from S1 as i use it all and am still making a profit, the roi is probably tiny but since January 1st bank is up 54% as of today. saying all that i must admit it is very feast or famine and does rely on the odd biggie to keep ticking over but this is my 3rd year of showing a profit from the way i use it so as they say if it’s not broke don’t fix it.

    Martin Whittle 09/07/19 8:19 PM Reply


    • I agree with Martin, I use all Section 1 information as a base.

      Geoff W 10/07/19 8:22 AM Reply


      • Oh I had no intention of scaling back Section 1 , don’t worry 🙂 Good to hear you use it in that way. The Flat can be feast or famine with the no of qualifiers, but maybe it’s fine as it is.

        In truth the Section 5 additional content – big race trends / big meeting pointers don’t take ages to pull together in the grand scheme and i’m sure some use them but I need to do a survey and find out where we are.

        There’s been quite the exodus in the last few months, which in reality is down to tipping performance I suspect – as simple as that. What with the strategies being static, that’s the main judgement factor – I’m now in the no excuses position on that front with my renewed focus/specialisms and Nick will hit a mad profit run soon enough.

        Josh 10/07/19 8:29 AM Reply


  • I believe personally I am at home with the jumping game rather than the flat also. I know from the long game that we all play that my best efforts have been over the jumps, so, refocus from myself also.
    I had a bet this evening, Gordon Elliott horse Everybreathyoutake was in my opinion over priced at 6/1, against a favourite that i didn`t really fancy and sure enough EBYT won doing handstands…If it had been on the flat I think it would have been a different story and my money would have been done early on…My point being I`m more comfortable in what I know is my “comfort zone!”.
    The new pace system on Geegeez`s is what I have been crying out for and will aid me definitely moving forward Josh! Is there anyway you could link that into the TTP Stats pack of selections?
    I for one would be definitely interested, as I say I am a pace man through and through!
    More to follow probably in the morning as I am getting a bit tired after a full day of work!
    Good luck to those who are left and we will regroup and push on with Josh`s teams anthem blaring in the background “With hope in our hearts!!! etc…”

    Stewart 09/07/19 8:41 PM Reply


    • If you need something to help you nod off Stewart do read my new chase pace report above haha.
      Geegeez has had pace maps etc for ages. Alas I can’t highlight which quals are front runners etc say. Matt pays a lot of money for all that data and I’m grateful to be able to use the ratings pointers with the permission of the 3 service owners concerned. Think that would be taking it a step too far! Still there are some inferior free alternatives, yet still useful… At the races for example. Am sure may be pace scores /maps elsewhere but I’ve never looked.

      Josh 09/07/19 8:55 PM Reply


    • Yes, fully understand that geegeez would not want everything being reposted. The pace stuff with ATR is good also. Just a quick one on the course details, if they are best course front runners, could we have a list of the worse also, might be interesting watching Hcp chases from those courses also and determining reasons behind why? ( Stiffness of fences, uphill finish, short run in etc!!)?

      Stewart 09/07/19 9:08 PM Reply


      • Oh there’s loads of tables/stats etc I could dive into – as well as being careful about how much I throw out from GG query tool I am also conscious of highlighting negatives as I tend to stay away from producing content that puts you off selections, more so the idea of positives/why may like something more etc – I also thought a generic list of neg tracks wouldn’t be that useful, without information on class / field size / going > there will be plenty of tracks that may be neg on the overall stats for front runners/pace pushers, but in many circs will be positive.

        Josh 10/07/19 8:23 AM Reply


  • Although I prefer jumps racing (not long to the Cheltenham festival now!!!!) I also like sprint handicaps on the flat and horses to follow/eye catchers as well. The rest bores me.
    I do believe that us humans (apologies to any Bot subscribers) do better at things that interest us as we are more motivated to learn and have a go at. Therefore I get the favouring of jumps racing.
    My systems work covers both codes and takes up a fair chunk of time but is something that suits my mind set. I have a couple of new ones coming along and will do some work on the Lambourn trainers stuff now.

    What is always interesting is how contributors come up with their selections? I appreciate that some do not wish to share their ‘systems/methodology’. However it is likely that if they did the rest of us would be able to help them improve it.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 10/07/19 7:21 AM Reply


    • I believe trainer trends are definitely to the fore over the sticks, the race i looked at last night i noticed Mr Elliott had 1 win 1 second and 4 places in last ten years, (the new feature from Racing Post is brilliant btw, yes you can find out that information via Josh and other publishers, but, when it`s in print i find it easier to read… 🙂 . When i saw both of the said horses were over 5/1 I thought dutch bet here we go and he improved his record by getting the winner and a 3rd to boot, thus meaning he must target this race early doors, wouldn`t be surprised to see the winner out at Galway at the end of the month. Jockey bookings is something I also look for, odd ones like Dickie Johnson for an unfashionable trainer the other day and it went in at 6/1, which when the season really gets going would be a value bet!
      I study form and pace and like i said i watch races back using the RP results section. I look at which course all the horses run at, or as close as damn it, (over the jumps, trainers seem to try horses at a few tracks first to see which one suits them, whether it be hurdles or jumps) you can then look at collateral form and i always time how they run round the track and try to section each furlong, then how quick they finish from the 2f pole, or as near as i can get it. It may seem time consuming, but, i narrow down the horses before doing the sectionals in the first place! Adjustments are made for going, type of course etc and then i give the horse a figure based on what i have studied, it is my own “rating”, it may be a bit off sometimes, but, it works for me and has done over the past year or so.

      Stewart 10/07/19 7:52 AM Reply


  • Good move Josh and about time too!

    chrisiwyg 10/07/19 7:40 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh…You are right to stick with where your true interests are. You have tried the flat angle which you have discovered is not for you and that is fine. As you are aware I joined to learn about the National Hunt scene and found that I prefer the flat….no surprises there given my interest / obsession? with speed and pedigrees….I like the stats pack angle and would not like to see this disappear altogether….I like your flat festival stats and notes: very informative and useful and would not like to see them excluded and disappear…with your intention to focus on chases, and hcp chases C4 and above I think is a great move on your part…personally I hate hcp hurdles of whatever standard, so glad those get the elbow….from a business perspective focusing on the NH angle may exclude the flat enthusiasts market and those who like AW racing which may restrict membership options for your business model and only you can decide whether that is right for the future of the site. I have read your pace notes regarding hdcp chases and don’t disparage yourself, they are great for helping me understand your approach to “pace” and in understanding that in the context of our recent discussions on here and for understanding their relevance in terms of chase races….all excellent stuff.
    I agree with Martin C….I appreciate and respect that some do not want to share how they assess a race but that is shame as the site is interesting for that very reason and hope that more are willing to do this in the future as just reading a bunch of selections with no indication of how they were arrived at, is both boring and uninformative….they may well be profitable but if the site becomes just another place where members just put up a list of selections without reference to how they were arrived at ( without giving away all the secrets of how they came about) I would not be a subscriber in the future.
    We all have our way of looking at races, and, at present, the site is good for sharing that information so we can learn from one another…I would hate that to change and would like to see more of that approach in the future….all the best for the next phase of the site development as an on going process…great stuff Josh….

    silver 10/07/19 8:43 AM Reply


    • Thanks John…

      Yep historically (in the context that the members club as per the structure above isn’t that old) jumps was the main focus, and I suppose flat was a bolt on to add something else during the summer months – BUT – it was always mainly an information resource for people to use as they please , with some musings from me- I think my Flat analytical head is decent enough but you can’t cut corners, must have the enthusiasm and the time – alas i’ve plenty to do outside of just analysing races, but given the imperative of a long term successful approach to ‘tipping’ (inc write ups from me) it makes sense I focus on the areas i most enjoy. That’s important for many reasons, but esp when you hit a losing run. There’s enough summer jumping to get us through, and less can be more.

      It’s not as though the Flat isn’t covered – obv my various stats research which i’m glad you find useful – but Nick tips plenty on the Flat and while the year hasn’t got going yet, it will. And of course those of you in the comments etc who indulge in the flat. And membership of this club has never been advertised with a focus on my flat ‘tipping’ ! 🙂

      Those ‘themes’ outlined above in terms of the structure of content won’t change I don’t think – i’ve always wanted to offer choice, from those who just want tips, to those who want info to use in their own betting, and everything in between. Mixed in with an educational journey element (inc for me), both through my write ups and reports like the new one above. It’s just a case of what can be improved within those themes – and how I can encourage the comments section – that has been organic and depends on the very small minority of the membership who like to comment etc
      *

      Pace etc … think it’s important we distinguish between race position / pace of a race / and speed! > at times my language prob puts them all in the same hat and in truth when I talk about ‘pace’ in a chase in my write ups, i’m talking about race position/who will lead etc. All very different from discussions on who may be the best/fastest horse in the race etc.

      I enjoy analysing chases for many reasons, but I enjoy the video analysis now, and the importance of jumping – which is only something you can understand with any given horse by watching them, and esp when they are under pressure. There’s more importance on a horse’s wellbeing I think in a staying chase and the tracks can make a big difference. Agree about handicap hurdles in general. I like attacking them at Festivals, esp Chelt etc, but outside of that, all eyes on the chasers!

      Josh 10/07/19 8:56 AM Reply


      • I suppose, for me, because I came with the motivation to learn about the NH scene from what has become the best site around for doing that…I am not just saying that Josh, it is a genuinely held belief….you do not pretend to know everything, you are open to learn and not coming from a pre existing angle that “you know it all” and that approach comes across in the site’s ethos and the atmosphere of the contributions of other members….just wish more would comment but appreciate and respect those who do not wish to do so or do not have the time or inclination to post….each to their own ….

        The stats packs and trends analysis of the bigger meetings and races, both flat and NH are extremely useful so don’t ditch those!

        Whether you decide to focus on Summer jumps as opposed to the flat or have a mixture of both and only concentrate on the better flat meetings and festivals is up to you…in the summer, my focus is on the flat, especially stakes races C4 and above both turf and all weather so anything that you want to focus on there is fine by me but may not be on your radar!!!

        Re “pace”..I understand that the word can incorporate all the aspects you mention and what was interesting in your article was how this relates to front running tactics of chasers and how those who do front run are more successful at certain venues…obviously you cannot give all the info as you mention but this approach is helpful form to understand how important this is in relation to these kind of races especially over the distances covered…..the flat perspective is that the vast majority of races are run over shorter distances yet front runners are more successful than they are at Chelmsford than say, Newcastle, for example, where it is difficult to make all so any comparative stats like this for the flat would be most welcome …..could be an angle to look at things like this for the flat season to add to the stats pack for the flat during the summer months, focusing on angles like that which interest you……just a thought going forwards to try…

        silver 10/07/19 9:38 AM Reply


        • Following on from your AW observation Silver, I’m very lazy when it comes to flat analysis as my interest is the jumps. Other than the odd micro Josh and members have posted I only focus on c+d runners with a decent s/r and profit. I find the winter AW is easily the more profitable especially on Tapeta.

          Titus 10/07/19 11:47 AM Reply


          • I understand…I am the reverse, regarding the jumps…. I focus on Chases C4 and above…be a boring old world if we were all the same and glad you can make the flat A/W pay by being as selective as you are..

            Chasing experience still a learning curve for me and am learning to appreciate why the jumps is more popular than flat racing…one of the main reasons being the horses are around for longer and you can follow their careers and progression far more than flat runners, with notable exceptions, naturally…for the Frankels etc., and you kind of have more of a relationship as the flat runners are more transient, especially the 2 an 3 yo’s ….you get the regulars like General Tufto on the flat at Souhwall which are the exception to the rule and one or two other older handicappers that seem to hang around for ever but in lower grade races….

            I tend to focus on C4 stakes and above and only now and have a passing interest on the lower grade stuff under both codes so miss a lot of the C5, C6 and C7 (few and far between now) important if you are an owner, trainer etc., but uninspiring stuff and no interest for me anymore as I do not have the time or interest, so increasingly find myself specialising on the flat and over the jumps as stated above.

            I have learned an enormous amount since subscribing more regularly…..have dipped in and out previously……..and that is why this site is the best around for an all round racing education.

            silver 10/07/19 12:32 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.20 Yarmouth Message BOG 11/2
    5.30 Catterick Mr Strutter BOG 7/1
    9.00 Bath Filament Of Gold BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    3.50 Yarmouth Fearlessly BOG 13/8
    4.30 Catterick Enchanted Linda BOG 3/1
    Colin
    Ken will email you back today or tomorrow, for now finishing off the golf.

    cleafe 10/07/19 10:03 AM Reply


    • Couple of nice winners so far! By the way I haven’t forgot about the clive holt synopsis. Remind me what it is you’d like me to put up again.

      Leif Collins 10/07/19 5:54 PM Reply


      • It is just the part ie Proven,progressive, class, going, distance if remember probably about 10 headings
        should not take you more than 5 mins.
        Thank you
        Colin

        cleafe 10/07/19 6:46 PM Reply


  • I totally understand your thinking Josh. I have learned more about racing by using this blog than any other source. The info you and the members submit makes racing very pleasurable even on a cold wet afternoon at Hamilton. The features that really interest me most are articles such as trainer/track/jockey trends and such like that give you a way in to all types and level of races and assist you in selecting horses that you would probably never have considered . I hope this type of info will still be available. Keep up the good work

    bricat 10/07/19 10:43 AM Reply


    • hey, thanks for your kind words, and those first 3 sentences make me smile, as that has always been an aim – in a way we should all be on a learning journey and I hope to shine some light on the knowledge I gain, and what I posses already.
      Yep I don’t think anything on the main stats front will change as it is currently presented – Section 1 / and Section 5 > the big meeting pointers/big race trends.

      I’ll ponder the test zone in September and may focus plenty more of that on handicap chases, for obvious reasons. I should pull together a winter All-Weather track stats report for those who want such things, but I wouldn’t post qualifiers etc I doubt.

      I should aim to do more stand alone research reports, with the trainer/jockey thrust etc.

      Josh 10/07/19 3:55 PM Reply


  • I’m a long time reader/non poster(a lurker I suppose) but I just wanted to throw my preference into the mix for what it’s worth.
    When I first arrived I found the big race/trend analysis enjoyable, they were mostly Saturdays. Would you consider continuing this format on the flat going forward Josh?
    Also what about looking at potential daily pace angle bets? Horses that stand out on pace tab in GGz similar to the report the other day?

    joeheal 10/07/19 11:47 AM Reply


    • Hi Joe,
      Yep the big race trends will continue as I suspect you’re not alone in enjoying those. When there is a big field all age flat handicap, c2+ I do get digging and usually have one race a week, occasionally none on flat. I could expand and try and do a few more with shortlists, as with HRB 48h decs means I can get that done by close of play the Thursday.
      In effect I don’t want to do any flat tipping analysis from me, and focus on the chasers. I have to be careful about what info I use from other subscription services within my own subscription service so systematically highlighting front runners etc prob isn’t doable.
      With any luck building on/improving any of current stats offering plus my chase tipping focus and the rest of content will suffice for now 🙂

      Josh 10/07/19 1:34 PM Reply


  • After two or three days of questionable quality the only race I want to be involved with today is the 7.15 at Kempton.

    Selection : Silent Agenda e/w @ 14/1 industry prices and 16.00 w/o Betfair exchange price.

    Boring bit:

    Favs 43% and 2nd Favs 24% so of the reaming 23% Silent Agenda is worth a punt at the price…..Tambourine Girl is a worthy fav and is value against the strike rate of favs at 2.68 on Betfair so would not put any off backing that win only as the horse is very well bred and clocked 37.76 mph over 6f at Windsor in a C5 on debut…very respectable as the average for that distance is 37.10 mph. Good combo of jockey and trainer, too, so obvious chance to improve after that first debut run.

    Of the others Hot Touch ran 37.32 mph in a C5 at Thirsk, again a respectable speed above average: is very well bred and better than Tambourine Girl in my opinion and should be above 3.8 on the exchanges…hovering around that as this represents the 24% strike rate…I would not be surprised to see the horse win.

    Both Airbrush and Graceful Magic have chances, too, despite clocking slower speeds 36.52 and 36 .78 mph respectively over the 6f. Graceful Magic has a bit to find speed wise with two at the top of the market but the sire is 2/6 over the distance and 1/4 over the course…a small sample and slower speeds do not entice me in.

    Of the newcomers, Miarka , for the Dunlop stable is interesting….personally, cannot get that stable right, and according to the racing post comments the stable has not had an A/W winning juvenile since 2017….the sire is 10/43 on the course and 6/19 over the distance and the pedigree is sound if not spectacular, not speedy but blessed with bags of stamina so a lot to like but trainer problematical so not for me.

    That leaves the selection, Silent Agenda…..very good pedigree has clocked 37.59 mph at Kempton and was described as “staying on” on the std/slow going description which give the horse an advantage…..has since run at B’ton on gd to firm going running 38.42 mph over 5.97 furlongs finishing 5th of 5th ….when adjusted for the distance and the course this equates to running 37.55 mph which is virtually the same speed it ran at Kempton on debut and is better than that achieved by Hot Touch, though has something to find with the fav…Tambourine Girl ……the pedigree is very good though not as good as the first and second fav but at the prices good e/w value. Hence the choice. Gd lck with whatever you back if playing.

    silver 10/07/19 12:15 PM Reply


    • i like the look of Silent Agenda as well , one of three small ew’s and a trixie, that’s my lot for today.
      6:45 Kempton – Padura Brave @ Guaranteed Price (18/1)
      7:15 Kempton – Silent Agenda @ Guaranteed Price (14/1)
      5:30 Catterick – Mr Strutter @ Guaranteed Price (8/1)

      Martin Whittle 10/07/19 12:50 PM Reply


      • Gd lck with those and thanks for sharing.

        silver 10/07/19 12:52 PM Reply


    • Well, that was a very disappointing run from the selection finishing stone last and struggling from the get go….on the positive note will hopefully deceived the handicapper sufficiently to get a good hdcp mark, not that I am suggesting anything untoward as was pushed along from leaving the stalls so there you go all that work to identify the value and horse runs a stinker…such is horse racing. Back tomorrow for another shot.

      silver 10/07/19 7:54 PM Reply


  • NH v Flat:
    A curve ball……..SAD
    I was asked by a childhood mate recently whether that was the reason I spent so much time on NH analysis. He figured my motivation for getting out in the darker months is lessened so it’s a way to keep occupied. He’s no interest in racing and doesn’t understand the vagaries but ?

    I took said mate to Ponty a couple weeks ago and he spent most of the time fixing a barmaid’s put-put.

    Titus 10/07/19 1:35 PM Reply


  • Lambourn
    Ed Walker
    2.20 Yarmouth Immoral BOG 7/1
    6.45 Kempton Jack D’Or BOG 10/1
    Charles Hills
    2.50 Yarmouth Fleeting Princess BOG 2/1
    7.00 Bath Conspiritor BOG 2/1
    8.45 Kempton Red Bravo BOG 12/1
    couple of shorties from Charles only just got in so will have a think this afternoon possibly 2 points win under 10/1 and 1 point ew above, or 1 point win 1/2 point ew, coffee, sit in the sun and have a think.
    Colin.

    cleafe 10/07/19 1:48 PM Reply


  • For what its worth,
    I love everything bout this site, even the ‘rows’. (what did happen to Chubnut?)
    I’ve been absorbing information for almost 2 yrs now, and appear to be making a profit…

    keep up the good (hard) work

    I do miss your short (ahem) video analysis though
    Sid

    sidders66 10/07/19 2:37 PM Reply


    • I second that. Miss the 20 minute (oops make that an hour and 20 minute) videos.

      NickM 10/07/19 2:47 PM Reply


    • Ha, yep I know I’ve been shoddy on the video front, I need to get into a habit of doing those, and trying to do plenty of shorter ones and the odd feature! And I enjoy recording them. Focusing my tipping mind and energy just on the chasers may free up some mental space. No excuse for not doing more of those.

      Josh 10/07/19 3:16 PM Reply


  • Is it a breach of data protection to ask if Chubnut is still a member?

    Mark Curtis 10/07/19 4:29 PM Reply


    • Sadly would appear he’s gone onto pastures new 🙁

      Josh 10/07/19 4:32 PM Reply


  • On lawks. Another good man gone 🙂

    I would absolutely lurve a winter AW Stats pack.I love all the trends, trainer/jock, trends stuff. Keep it up old chap.

    Mark Curtis 10/07/19 5:09 PM Reply


  • I seem to remember one of the first stat packs put together was an AW version I could be telling an outrageous lie but Josh will confirm if I am or not

    aaron l 10/07/19 6:21 PM Reply


    • I have done them before for the winter months but never posted quals etc which I doubt I’d do given the focus on winter jumps game. But it’s only a couple of hours work and if there’s a demand for it I should pencil in some time to research it. Need to get cracking on next seasons jumps stats first 🙂

      Josh 10/07/19 6:33 PM Reply


      • Personally I’m happy to find the qualifiers for myself if you produce the pack. Let’s see if there are any other AW fans out there.:-)

        Mark Curtis 10/07/19 7:13 PM Reply


        • Good shout..def interested in that idea!

          silver 10/07/19 7:57 PM Reply


  • Hi josh. I follow S6 on the flat and S3a & S4 over the jumps, in the winter. I also back every qualifier in any chase longer than 2m 7f, all year. Ktf. Mick.

    featherbedroc 10/07/19 9:07 PM Reply


  • I too like all of the content on here and am a frequent visitor although less multiple visits as the volume of comment content has decreased.

    I am quite happy that you restrict your tipping activity to areas you are comfortable with.

    I have enjoyed following the micro systems such as Twister, Emma Lavelle and Tom Lacey, specifically in their hot times of year. I hope that these will continue and could be extended to other systems relevant to particular times of the year. Something along the lines of micro of the month.

    Eddie

    Edward Crisp 10/07/19 11:01 PM Reply


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