Members Daily Post: 08/07/19 (complete)

Nick’s Tips x1, Section 1 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Worcester

2.15 –

Crusiing Bye   (HcCh,micro runs) H3 I1 12/1 

Balkinstown   (m runs) I3 11/1 

2.45 –

Al Shahir   (m class) 11/10 

Forever My Friend   (HcCh) 13/2 

4.45 – Aldrin   (m age)  w1 I1 11/2 

5.15 –

Great Tempo   (m’s age and runs) H3 8/1 

Shanksforamillion   (HcH) 11/1 

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FLAT

Ayr

2.30 –

Vallarta   (m class) I3 G3 13/2 

Perfect Swiss   (m class) 12/1 

Spirit Of Zebedee   (m class) 15/2 

3.30 – Arecibo   (m -class) 5/1 

4.30 –

Mapped   (m class) 14/1 

Corton Lad   (m runs) 12/1 

5.00 –

My Ukulele   (m class) 9/1 

Dreamseller   (m class) H3 9/4

 

Ripon

7.10 – Ventura Royal   (m dist) 4/1 

8.10 – Rufus King   (m TJC) H3 I1 9/2 

 

Windsor

7.50 – Cool Possibility   (all Hc’s) H3 G1 4/1 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 16/80, 27p +35.8)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/44,19p, -3.5)

 

Daily Tips 

None, no race types of choice

 

Flat Test 2019 

TBC

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End JULY -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised , May -8.22/-8.97, July -31.04 / -31.79)

 

5.50 Winds – Global Hope – 1 point EW – 6/1 (1/5,4p – WH/BetfS/PP) 3rd, 10p R4, +0.08 

that’s all for today, 08.10 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainer to follow 

Emma Lavelle (14/1<) 

4.45 Worc – Shiroccan Roll 

Johnson/Daly 

3.45 Worc – Finalshot 

Jockeys/Chasers

2.15 Worc – Tanrudy 

2.45 Worc – Forever My Friend 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Really Super…

Ah, well i’m gutted , I won’t lie – that’s the first time i’ve owned a chunk of a horse and watched them lose a race they should have won, and one I thought they would do. It’s far more annoying than a losing tip/bet that should have won, a different emotion. On another day she wins that race going away and was the best handicapped horse there. She’s just better than them, and given how weak it was for the class and the prize money, it’s a tad frustrating. Sadly the race was run at a crawl which didn’t help her  – she was buzzy pre race and a tad fresh in it, hence Jack trying to settle her. She’s a strong traveller and a faster pace would have helped but we knew that would be the case pre race. She was further back than ideal at times, the odd sloppy/rusty jump not helping with that positioning. She didn’t have the tactical pace on the final bend when they quickened, got shuffled back and had to be switched wide. She lost a few lengths there. She was in the wrong position when they quickened. She has flown after the last when Jack got stuck in, but sadly was a bit too late. It’s a game of fine margins.  Still, she ran well, plenty to work on and we’ll have  fun with her through the summer/autumn. She still has that devastating turn of foot from last year- the ground she made up after the last when Jack asked her was visually impressive. That was one that got away, but i’ll be over it soon enough…but not just yet! 🙂 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Ah, bad luck Josh, sounds from the write up in the Life results that she would have won had things fallen a little luckier for her, albeit the winner was expected from watching the market, smashed in.

  2. I agree Josh, she was two lengths behind the fifth coming off that bend and I thought she was right out of it. So to only be beaten a rapidly diminishing length at the finish just shows what she can do. More prominent and up with the pace next time and we will get there!!

    1. I thought that Really Super showed that she can win races in her class and when ridden better. I think that there will be more days but the 9/1 will not be there next time. She seemed to me to get muddled in with the other runners at times and swung too wide on the final bend because of poor positioning. I appreciate that the jockey is her deemed pilot and he will no doubt learn for next time. But a number of positives for her followers.

      1. yep, Jack’s very honest and knows he was on the best horse there and should have won.
        The exciting thing is we don’t know as yet what her class/level ceiling is, esp during summer months. She’s certainly well handicapped and 121 doesn’t represent her true ability, and nor should it given her physical/mental progression since achieving that jumps mark. That race yesterday was in effect a class 3 given the ratings. Amy thinks she’s got potential to win a Mares only C1 listed race over fences, and that chasing may be her game ultimately. We may not keep her over timber for much longer but we shall see.
        I’ve watched it back a few times , trying to ponder what could have been done differently and why she had the position she did turning in –
        there is some context in that she was buzzy pre race, more than usual, and you could see in the early part she was over-racing a tad and Jack wanted to settle her

        – the alternative there is to roll dice and just go forward on a wing, in clean air but that may have sparked her up even more. It was also her first hurdle start in a while and you have to balance throwing them at hurdles and making sure they get over etc – jumping wise i’d like to think she’ll come on from that, mentally if anything
        -pace is important in the sense because it was run at a crawl, the field was more congested turning for home- a stronger gallop finds out horses, creates more room, and if you’ve a strong galloper who’s going half speed, allows them to settle/get into a better stride. In effect they haven’t started racing until the 3f pole, hence the bunched nature of the race. Mr Universum doesn’t stay that trip off a strong pace but nearly got away with it. The time was awfully slow etc.
        -her jumping cost her position down the back a tad, one error cost her a few lengths, going from upsides Newlands in 3rd back to 5th, and in the end that horse squeezed her out on the bend, hence why had to switch wide etc. It also transpired she came back with a gash on her leg also, a result of that scrimmaging on the bend. If she was feeling it she did well to respond as she did late on.
        Also, she’s a stayer who takes a while to wind up, but her response in the last 1f when asked to motor was pleasing.
        I’d like to think if we race over that trip again in a field size like that we will be more aggressive with her, esp if she is more settled NTO having got the buzz out of her , and have her closer to the pace. If she were 2nd/3rd entering the straight there I think she’d have blown them away. If she was level when putting in the turbo in final furlong she’d have put 3/4 L between her and the rest. It could be she needs further also, esp when a race run like that.
        It’s a game of fine tactical margins which is what makes it so intriguing

        Anyway, she’ll win/get competitive in plenty more, so much to look forward to.

  3. Well done lads sound like a glass half full sort of day for your syndicate a lot to be taken from that run and it looks like the summer holds a great bit of craic for ye’ s

    1. Oh without doubt, plenty more positives – i’m just about over the annoyance haha – when you’re on the best horse, in a winnable race, for that sort of pot, it is just more annoying esp when you know she’s better than current mark, and when you hope that she’ll return a % of share value in time! But, i could look at it and say that on that track, given how the race was run, she wasn’t good enough on the day. The two ahead were able to hold position, and had a turn of foot from there, and had ability to be in the right place. As soon as she had to be settled and had that early position nearer last than first, we were in the lap of the gods there. That’s racing.
      But yep, much fun to be had. She’ll handle some cut in the ground, not proper soft, and now she’s bigger/stronger, hopefully we can keep her going for a while. I dream of making her into a make-all chaser, demolishing a load of mares races and then who knows! Not many at this time of year have the turn of foot she does or can lob along at her pace, she does have a touch of class, it’s just finding the conditions to unlock it all this year. Which we will.
      The craic is always top, great bunch of owners, not too many which is nice as everyone knows each other and has a good time. Hopefully I can get to the track next time!

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    A 2.30 – Jessie Allen on 7thrun @ 20
    W 2.45 – Powerful Symbol on 2nd run @ 14
    ………….Forever My Friend on 1st run @ 9
    W 5.15 – Shanksforamillion on 3rd run @ 12
    R 8.10 – Kings Pavilion on 7th run @ 14

  5. COLINS BETS
    2.30 Ayr Spirit Of Zebedee BOG 8/1
    3.30 Ayr Harome BOG 9/4
    8.10 Ripon Rufus King BOG 11/2
    ELITE BETS
    4.30 Ayr Machiavelli BOG 15/2
    4.30 Ayr Donnachies Girl BOG 22/1
    Colin

    1. Harome…… another 1 dayer, apparently yesterday the horse was playing up in the paddock and reluctant to go in the stalls and generally being difficult, but don’t let that put you off as seemingly won easy. Josh put up some very interesting 1day stats couple of weeks back which I think is what makes this site worth a read every day

      1. Hi James
        Always found that when a trainer brings them out within a week then for me you can assume they are at there peak fitness so you stand a good chance that you will get a run for your money.
        Certain trainers excell in this area provided MY CRITERIA IS MET.
        Mark Johnson, Keith Dagliesh ( was assistant trainer to Mark Johnson in the past ) Jim Goldie, Tim Easterby, T. D Barron, Roger Fell, Richard Fahey, David O’Meara, and many more.
        Colin.

  6. Anyone on here heard of Kstips. I’ve just been reading his book “How to win on Horseracing “ claims to run the most successful tipping services ever. ☺️
    Edward

    1. Mr Keith Sobey!
      He makes the statement on the website ”Only God tips 100% winners….Keith is the next best”.
      They do not proof to Smart Betting Club. They did not respond to the invitation from SBC to proof to them.

      I would give it a swerve.

  7. Thanks for your reply Martin, the subscription charges are phenomenal, definitely a swerve for me. I’ve been thinking about subscribing to Smart Betting Club. Just not sure.
    Regards
    Edward

  8. Hallings Comet is a runner from Ben Aitken’s Summer Stunners in the 4.45 Worcester today. Seems to tick all the boxes, hence the price of 5/1 in from 8/1.

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