Members Daily Post: 07/07/19 (upd2)

(any tips from Nick in comments) Section 1 (complete), test zone, A Super Sunday? >>>

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.10 –

Montys Angel   (all Hc’s,micro class)  ES+H3 I3 2/1 S3A# WON 2/1 

Dan Gun   (m class) 8/1 NR

3.45 –

Nikki Steel   (all Hc’s,)  ES+  2/1 S3A UP

Mon Eldorado   (m age) 9i/1 UP

Very First Time   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+ I3 3/1 S3A NR

4.20 –

Value At Risk   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I1 7/4 S3A# UP

Lord Bryan   (m age) 7/1 2nd 

4.50 –

Asylo   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 5/2 S3A UP

More Bucks   (HcH) 8/1 UP

Mister Universum   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 7/2 S3A# 2nd 

5.25 –

Jimmy Rabbitte   (all Hc’s)  ES+H1 I1 6/4 S3A# 2nd 

Compatriot  (HcH)  I3 3/1 UP

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FLAT

Ayr

2.30 –

Kharbetation   (m -class) 22/1 

Dark Lochnagar   (m dist) G1 8/1 S6 UP

3.05 –

Myklachi   (m -class)  w1 H1 4/1 

Neileta   (m class) H3 I1 G1 9/2 S1 S4  WON 9/2 

4.40 – Smugglers Creek   (m class )  w2 12/1 

5.15 –

Robot Boy   (m runs) 11/1 

Mr Greenlight   (m class) H3 6/1 

Oriental Splendour   (m class)  w2  I3 G3 8/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 16/80, 27p +35.8)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/44,19p, -3.5)

 

Daily Tips 

None, no jumps races of choice.

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Flat Test 2019 

None. 

The 3.15 Haydock didn’t go to plan, I read that pace set up completely wrong. Not sure if I just assumed they’d go a pace having seen a few 3s and 4s on my pace maps, but they didn’t and if you were held up, game over. That was the case with a few of the races at Haydock and Sandown.  

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End JULY -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised , May -8.97/-8.22, July -31.04 / -31.79)

 

0/2,0p, -3.5 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

3.15 MR – Mac Cennetig 

Trainer to follow

4.50 MR – The Sweeney 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.20 MR – Lord Byran 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

A SUPER SUNDAY>>>

 

Really Super makes her belated return to hurdles for us on Sunday in the 4.50 Market Rasen. The above pic is from a few days back – fair to say she’s looking well in her coat!! 🙂 She made a very good return at Notts on the flat and then had a minor setback – she had what I think was ‘horse cramp’ in her back legs, tying up (which is more common in fillies/mares) but taking longer than normal to recover – so much so that we had her full body scanned to ensure no hairline fracture (only £1k for a day at the vets! Gulp). 

Thankfully she’s back in rude health and working well, all systems go. She is a different beast from when last seen over jumps. Her winter break did her the world of good, maturing mentally with time and growing more into her frame. I’ve no doubt she’s much better than this jumps mark but she does have to show it. Whether thats over hurdles or when/if sent over fences, time will tell. 

I am expecting a massive run. I don’t usually bet the evening before and nor at stand-out prices, and I try not to take the piss with the bookie liability. Whether that’s a reason for having accounts X/Y/Z still open, i’ve no idea… anyway… Bet365 put her in at 16/1 , which was about 3x the price she should be. Madness. I got to her at 12s, which was just a silly price whatever she does. Not sure what they were smoking up in Stoke when pricing that race up! Maybe she’ll drift back out but i doubt it. She’s a 5s shot in that lineup to my biased eyes! 🙂 

We do not think fitness will be a problem. I don’t think the minor issue she had will affect her mentally when asked for max effort but we will soon find out. Conditions look fine for her and I’m expecting/ hopeful of a massive run. She has the ability to beat this lot and it’s fine placement from the syndicate managers – a 0-145, 12k+ to the winner, that’s now a 7 runner race and in effect a 0-128. 

There isn’t much pace on paper in this. I hope Jack may sit in 3rd or so, poss tracking STD and James Bowen on their mounts, and sending her for home turning in. She stays very well but also has a turn of foot (or did when last winning at Worcester x2). I’m expecting her to go very close, unless she runs a shocker/jumps shoddy and an obvious excuse emerges. 

Sadly I can’t make it as I have a Christening to attend but i’ll be there in spirit cheering her on. Hopefully its the start of an exciting few months/years ahead with her (and I can get some of my 10% stake back!), as she hasn’t hit the ceiling of her ability yet, nowhere near it IMO

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

    1. The Sweeney is strong in the market and Really Super is drifting and so an each way price looks guaranteed. So, the mortgage may be safe?

      1. Yeah I saw it had drifted. Looks like I will be getting that holiday home now too haha. Have you done the forecast Martin?

        1. No, I do not like the favourite. An each way punt on Really Super and in a double with Remmy D, 3.05 Ayr, is my lot today.

          1. I have it in a forecast with tamarillo grove. Good luck with your double.

  1. COLINS BETS
    Ayr
    2.30 Regal Mirage BOG 11/1
    4.10 Nicholas T BOG 7/4
    4.40 Global Spirit BOG 9/4
    ELITE BETS
    3.05 Ayr Neileta BOG 3/1
    3.45 M/R Very First Time BOG 10/3
    4.50 M/R Jaunty Flyer BOG 18/1
    Colin

  2. longshot lunacy.
    on what is a poor day of racing ( bar Really Super of course ) i’ve looked for past form as a way in for a chance at a biggie.
    Ayr. 3-05. Haymarket 25-1 4 places bv, took 4 races to come to hand last year then ran a very close 2nd to Thournton Care in a very similar race at Ayr last year about this time, drops to a career low mark of 48 off 4 poor runs so far this year.
    Market Rasen. 2-10 Sirius Star 80-1 bfsb, hasn’t won for 3 years but that win was over c&d off a mark of 100, runs today off 64. bit of money came for him lto backed in to 9-1 over c&d when disappointing.
    a more sensible shout is Regal Mirage 11-1 in Ayr 2-30.

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 2.10 – Grand Enterprise on 3rd run @ 9
    M 4.20 – Lord Bryan on 2nd run @ 7

  4. Lambourn Nothing today.
    Have to say the trainers that i tend to moniter have been impressive over the past few months still a learning curve for me.
    Yesterday 6 bets one winner 9/1 and two placed 16/1, 8/1.
    Last Saturday three bets which two were placed at 14/1 and 9/1.
    Charlie Hills is outstanding with his honesty
    Jamie Osbourne another who is very honest with his views on his runners, yesterday on Jamie Spencer who was aboard Lush Life, Jamies comment was you do not know which Spencer will turn up and you can guarentee it will be slow away, thankfully chose not to back it in the end.
    Richard Hughes and Ed Walker have been hit and miss with these two trying to read between the lines, but do feel that they will be in profit by the end of the flat season.
    Would recommend go on the Lambourn website for it is free and get a feel for the trainers views, paper trade for a few months.
    Colin.

    1. Lush Life as a horse is worth studying if you wish to learn about the importance of pace and how some horses need to be ridden. Spencer was the reason for her victory a few starts back. Obviously I was watching her like a hawk yesterday… Again she was keen and over racing. From that draw she was on the wing with no cover and wouldn’t drop her head. Spencer moved her in behind horses to settle her, which worked. She started to race properly. Sadly for all of us who were on Frankie dictated a slow pace, staked them up and anything in behind had no chance. She cruised into it but wasn’t much there when he asked. Whether she used too much energy early and or didnt out down on ground, not sure. But she needs a strong pace as she still hasn’t learnt to drop her head properly.
      You can’t guarantee Spencer will be slow away. Depends on the horse and whether he judges the horse needs to be settled. He’s one of best around making all also. We can all learn plenty from the game about that horse and how she races /is ridden and why Spencer does what he does. He wasn’t the reason for her effort yesterday.

      1. Did not see the race only passing on the Trainers coment before the race was even run and for myself, from his video had doubts that it may not be the horses day, and he has made similar coments on Jamies riding before, yet he stills puts him up, or is it the owners who want him on board, who knows and who cares.
        That race what Spencer won on Lush Life did back it on that day for it was a positive from Jamie Osbourne.

        You miss the point put up Lambourn to show that it can be a wonderful tool for the punter and it is free compared to expensive tipsters, and nothing against Spencer, on yesterdays post put up that would look close to the off if i was to back Lush Life because JO had put doubts in my mind and thankfully took the right decision and saved myself a few quid.

        Enjoy the christing and do not drop the baby whoops!

        Colin

      2. Sorry to disagree Josh but would not have mattered if Lush Life had settled or ridden to get the trip…horse is just not good enough to compete with Mojito…Lush Life has run 8f at 35.74 and 35.69 mph and Mojito has run the same distance in 36.19 and 36.25 mph…no where near the speed of Mojito…secondly on pedigree…Mojito is superior as well….pace, in this instance, is not a consideration…Lush Life is an inferior horse…simple as that and makes no difference regards to pace as the horse could have been ridden as slow as you like but would not have had the speed to compete as would have been too far back to make up the lengths in time as just not fast enough. Pace is important to ensure a horse gets the distance…you clearly cannot run an 8f race at a 5f speed but to use pace as an excuse for the failure of this horse to win is not the reason …just an inferior horse to the winner…simple as that…no doubt you will not agree, but, after all, it is all a game of opinions. PS….hope Really Super does the business in the 16.50..gd lck and hope it wins for you.

        1. Yep I disagree to a point haha.
          It wasn’t an explanation for why she didn’t win but for why she didn’t run her race and more so why she is ridden that way. Her best may not have been good enough in any case. She needed a stronger pace, and leaders to go too hard. The winner has stolen the race although in time he may be even better off a stronger pace and may well just be a cut above those.
          I thought how a race was run, overall speed of races, sectionals, closing speeds etc all affected the speed a horse can hit /maintain etc but it’s an area I should read up more on. I think we have a different understanding of pace also. Pace is always a vital element to consider imo, how a race is run and the position horses adopt in said race, esp in a handicap.
          It was a handicap also, assume those times take account of weight carried etc. But you always say plenty for me to and ponder. I may well be talking nonsense.

          1. Take your point… .pace is a factor and the way a horse is treated in a race, without a doubt, but you also have to consider the quality of the horse running…for example, Too Darn Hot has just won a G1 over 7f clocking 39.42 mph…now that is quality at the highest level and as such, horses like that will out perform a lesser horse in every department and just saying this must be taken into consideration when looking at how a horse runs but we shall agree to disagree in terms of where to place the emphasis when trying to find those elusive winners….commiserations on Really Super…bound to better to come in the future….

  5. Only the one race of interest and 2 possible bets in the same race. If that were not enough there’s very little liquidity with only £367 taken so far on Karasheni which is the shorter priced option of the two. Doesn’t run until 4.30 (Limerick), so will post it on the TC page about an hour before. Have a feeling that Karasheni will get backed in leaving Rip’s Choice as the only bet in the race as the fav’ is way too short at the mo’.

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