Members Daily Post: 06/07/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x4, Test x2, Section 1 (complete), Old Newton Cup

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Beverley

3.10 –

East Street Revue   (3yo+,micro’s age and runs)  ES+  10/1 S3A

Computable   (3yo+)  ES+ 20/1 S3A

4.20 – Bollin Joan   (m age)  w1ES+ H3 7/2 S3A

 

Haydock

3.15 –

Epaulement   (all Hc’s) I3 20/1 

Al Muffrih   (all Hc’s)  w1 9/2 

 

Leicester

3.40 – Deep Intrigue   (all Hc’s) 14,30  ES+ H3 10/1 S3A

 

Sandown…….None

 

Carlisle 

6.00 – Suitcase n Taxi   (mage) 8/1 

7.00 –

Afandem   (m age) I3 8/1 

Beechwood Izzie   (m’s age and -class) 16/1 

Northern Society   (m age) 11/1 

7.30 –

Home Before Dusk   (m age)  w1 H3 I3 4/1

Red Seeker   (m -class) G3 5/1 

8.00 –

Ghayyar   (m age) G3 7/1 

Zoravan   (m class) 6/1 

 

Nottingham

6.40 –

Dr Doro   (all Hc’s) G1

Stewardess   (all Hc’s,m age)  ES+ H1 5/2 S3A

7.10 – Swordbill    (all Hc’s,m age)  w2 I3 G3 11/1

7.40 – Michele Strogoff   (3yo+) H3 I1 8/1 S6 

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THE KEY

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 16/80, 27p +35.8)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/42,19p, -1.5)

 

Daily Tips 

None, no jumps races of choice.

Review… not much to say really, Marble Moon should have won. He was tapped for toe a bit 3 from home and took a while to get going – albeit Wedge could have been more aggressive, switched him wide earlier, and got properly stuck in. Annoying when they fly like that over 26f and don’t get up. I’d be surprised if they returned there with him. But at those moments you have to remember the winners you’ve backed thanks to ‘could do better’ rides in behind. Still, frustrating, and as I type what with Nick’s first tip, who also should have won, that’s a 16 point swing. But, that’s racing. Marble Moon is the only one i’d want to take from that race. He was the right pick in the race and is still well handicapped over fences. Doubt he’ll open at 9/2 though and his more patient style always comes with risks. 

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Flat Test 2019 

3.15 Haydock

Aquarium – 1 point win – 14/1 

Koeman – 1 point win – 16/1 

that’s all for today”s flat test…

Well with no chases to get stuck into above i’ve had a flick through the stats/trends horses for this race listed below in section 4. It could well be the Fav is a group horse in the making here as a 4 year old. His win LTO was decent but from 109 he’ll need to step forward again. He has a big weight, is draw wide and has no Frankie. There’s a chance he either uses too much energy from the gate to get a position, gets stuck wide and or shuffled back/needs luck in running. The stats for wide draws in this race are decent enough though. In any case at 3s i’ll take him on. I’ve gone win only as is my want. No doubt they’ll both now place, with the fav scooting home…

Aquarium – has the right stats profile for this race and MJ has won 3 of the last 6 renewals. I assume Franny had the choice of the two in this and I wasn’t sure the other would be good enough, but I could be wrong. The yard are flying along at the moment, they do very well here, as does Franny and even more so when riding for his boss. This horse has the form to compete I think and with more luck in running LTO could have been closer. He was staying on in that Ascot race. The ground is a niggle, if indeed it’s Good to Firm. He has mixed signals as to whether he handles it and his best runs have been with some cut. He won on fast in his younger days. His run at Epsom was awful, but MJs can just throw in poor runs from nowhere, linked to his training style/how many times he runs them I think. Maybe it wasn’t the ground. I thought at 14s i’d chance it.

Koeman – given Channon has won this race before I did wonder if this has been the plan. He arrives here in decent form and the horse he was close to at Newmarket two starts back would go on to win the Ascot race that Aquarium ran in above. He shapes as if he will relish a strongly run 12f and may even get 14f in time. His last two runs on RPRs have been career bests and it could be he’s open to further improvement this season.

We shall see if my darts have landed on the right two!

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End JULY -28.1 BOG / -29.6 Advised , May -8.97/-8.22, July -31.04 / -31.79)

2.25 Sandown – Lush Life- 1 point EW – 9/1 (Lad/BV/Coral)

3.10 Bev – East Street Review – 1 point EW – 11/1 (Lad/WH/BV)

5.00 Hayd – Roundhay Park – 1 point EW – 6/1 (bet365/Lad/WH/BV)

8.30 Carlisle – I Am A Dream – 1.5 point WIN – 5/1 (gen)

 

that’s all for today from Nick as of 08.55…

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Saturday Big Race Trends

Old Newton Cup

10/156, 35p

10/10 yet to run beyond 2m (16f) (had: 0/36, 5p)

10/10 had 3+ runs in prev 90 days (0-2: 0/76, 13p)

10/10 had 3+ runs this season (0-2: 0/69, 11p)

9/10 had been ridden by jockey at least once (0: 1/61, 9p)

8/10 won at least once last 3 runs (8/85, 27p)

6/10 Top 2 LTO (6/56, 14p)

5/10 up 1 class from last run (5/27, 11p, +38 BFSP)

Other

  • Claiming jockeys: 0/21, 2p

Track LTO

  • Hayd: 2/9, 3p
  • Ascot: 2/32, 8p
  • Epsom: 0/16, 3p

 

Trainers (22 years, with runners)

  • First Eleven (Gosden: 1/5, 2p)
  • Charles Kingsley / Aquarium (Johnston: 3/36, 7p)
  • Koeman (Channon: 1/7, 1p)

22 Year Pointers

  • 22/22 yet to RUN beyond 16f in career 
  • 21/21 (of those with a career win) had WON over at least 10.5f+ 
  • 14/22 Aged 4
  • 11/22 won or 2nd LTO

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Shortlist

3x 10/10 stats leave 10/65, 19p …

Charles Kingsley / Lucius Tiberius / Epaulement / Aquarium / Society Red / Everything For You 

[poll id=”28″]

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. What about a poll on staking levels? Say win bet, each way bet and multiples, average stake? I have assumed most on here are at the lower levels, say £10 or less but I am guessing a bit.

    Has anyone tried to do the multiple on Frankie today? I have not but am guessing it may be blocked with certain firms?

    Anyone laying Sergei Prokofiev? He looks like a dodge pot to me.

    Anyone fancy Normandy Barriere in the 5.00 Haydock?

    A provocation to debate.

    1. Frankie in the last was 16/1 with 365 last night coral was 6/1 cut from 7/1. Did think it was odd but 365 probably not taking accas

    2. Hi Martin C. Putting up Muthmir in the 1.50 Sandown e/w with Garrus as a live contender so opposing Sergei as on my figures not fast enough so will see…as for betting stakes very rarely back above £5.00…always back pennies rather than £’s …my average stake would be around .90p which means …45p or ……….30p each way…I kid you not and being serious…..not a professional punter, just enjoy solving the puzzle in certain races and if I win then that is a bonus so primarily for interest that I bet and tends to focus the mind if you lose money which happens more frequently than I would like!!!…hence the small stakes…hobby for me and I only bet what I am prepared to lose ………had the Frankie bet on at Ascot (thanks to Josh’s stat) for .03p for £106 return for a £1.44 stake so that is what I call value betting!! Hate putting up favs at short prices but prepared to back them in multiples for small stakes only….Thanks to Frankie and the way I look at races have a bank of £130 plus at the moment for the small outlays mentioned so should keep me going for a while assuming the same kind of stakes…if I get to £200.00 then will look at increasing the stakes but until then just a small stakes interest punter…

      1. With Sergei P, it is all about value. I guess 4/1 may be OK? I just think that he likes to run off the pace and with Caspian Prince likely going off fast, he may be too far back to win? I guess the dirty each way at 4/1 could be a fail safe?

        The Frankie bet is not much value as they are over bet now. He is a big race jockey and so will be focused on Enable today I think.

        1. Personally, I love Frankie, both as a person and as a jockey, and usually back him whatever he rides…he loves the big occasions as he is a showman and is such a contrast to the dour faced Ryan…the latter just brings the mood right down every time he is interviewed and rarely back him as he is proving unreliable recently…even when he wins his is as miserable as sin and thinks he is doing the interviewer a favour by speaking to them…life is too short to be as miserable as Ryan comes across a being and personality wise is just too much of a mood killer for me to enthuse over, despite his skill as a jockey….Very rare to get value from both jocks so unless there are some outstanding chances on either of them and a chance to get some multiples then best avoided…

          1. PS…Talked myself into the Frankie multiple for a .03p win only Heinz for £1.71 stake…probably done my money but after all it is Frankie….will probably win on one of his runners today and have backed against some of his runners today as single or each way bets as mentioned, as multiples go not bad value and obviously the bookies are scared of what he can do…enjoy yourself whatever you decide today…

  2. 1.50 Sandown, was suprised by the 4/1 on Sergei P because think he’s the best horse in the race. But following on from Nicks point on Moore yesterday i sort of agree, i think Dettori shows him up quite regularly wen both on similar level of horses, and can just see Moore finding trouble here and getting boxed in with nowhere to go, if a gap did open up then he could burst through and win obvs. But iv landed on Muthmir think this is his level and ground and like the run from last year, if slightly closer to the leaders i think he would of won that

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 3.15 – Lucius Tiberius on 4th run @ 16
    Festival/BRT
    S 2.25 – Zhui Feng on 5th run @ 25
    B 7.20 – Kilkishen on 2nd run @ 20
    3m+
    B 7.20 – Kilkishen on 4th run @ 20

  4. COLINS BETS
    Beverley
    4.20 Miss Mumtaz BOG 7/1
    4.20 Bollin Joan BOG 4/1
    Haydock
    5.00 Gabrial The Devil BOG 5/1
    5.00 Buccaneers Vault BOG 28/1
    Carlisle
    6.00 Suitcase ‘ N ‘ Taxi BOG 11/2
    ELITE BETS
    Sandown
    2.25 Mojito BOG 11/2
    2.25 Salute The Soldier BOG 18/1
    Chelmsford
    2.50 Merchant Of Venice BOG 7/1
    4.30 Lonicera BOG 14/1
    Carlisle
    7.30 Red Seeker BOG 11/2
    Colin

    1. Cleafe – You did poor old Shareef Dancer a disservice yesterday – but easy to see why it was indeed Snaafi Dancer who went through the ring for $10.2M and then never raced. It was oft reported that he was so slow in training that it would have been embarrassing to run him in public as stud prospects would have evaporated.
      He was retired to stud duty where he was discovered to have fertility problems and only sired a few. Talk about throwing money away and confirming the old joke ” How do you make a small fortune in racing …. start with a big one”

      1. Thanks for that the old brain got that one wrong, not bad though for so long back.

        Going to Newmarket races take time out when the sales are on, had 20 minutes in there and was eye popping, one went for £3 million in seconds.

        Another must is stay over and get up early to go onto the gallops the ammount of horses training is amazing, and it is a whos who on trainers watching their horses train.
        Colin.

        1. Yeah can’t beat an October day with a morning at the sales , day at the races night over and up to the gallops first thing . Plenty of rumours fly around at Tatts , great to study the catalogue and try and pick one out yourself to follow when they are 2YO and see if your judgements any good

  5. ITV Racing.
    Sandown.
    1-50. Muthmir 6-1 ew
    2-25. Lush Life 10-1 ew
    3-00. Beyond Reason 6-1 win
    3-35. Mushtashry 14-1 ew
    Haydock.
    2-05. Mind The Crack 4-1 win
    2-40. Highgarden 13-2 win
    3-15. Epaulement 18-1 ew
    mainly fun bets but i have had a tenner on Beyond Reason

    ITV want to give their head a shake sticking Chelmsford 2-15 in the itv7.

  6. 1.50..Sandown Muthmir e/w
    2.40 Haydock Nyaleti/Dramatic Queen split stakes win only….preference is for Nyaleti if you do not fancy split stake betting.

    The boring bit: 1.50. Sandown…Muthmir is old ok but is a very fast horse still clocking 40.63 and 39.43 mph over the 5f. with Garrus a close second at 39.64 and the choice is price driven as 6/1 for the selection is value e/w…Rumble has clocked 39.32 over 5f with Poetry clocking 39.07 and was beaten by Sergei by 6.75 lengths in 2018 but Sergei has only clocked 38.13 and would rather back Rumble than Sergei but have gone for the old timer Muthmir e/w…now 11/2 but still value at that price.

    2.40. Boring bit again …on my figure have Nyaleti and Dramatic Queen so close that it is difficult to split them, hence the split stakes for a small profit but not a great race to bet in to be honest give the lack of e/w options.
    Gd lck

  7. Lambourn
    Jamie Osbourne
    1.40 Chelmsford Seraphinite BOG 13/2
    Lush Life in the 2.25 Sandown will wait till near the off to decide if to back
    Richard Hughes
    5.10 Chelmsford Scat King BOG 9/1 RH hopes it will make all
    5.20 Sandown Light Up Our Stars BOG 6/1
    Charles Hills
    4.50 Leicester Global Falcon BOG 9/2
    5.35 Haydock Mutaraffa BOG 10/3
    8.10 Nottingham Fragrant Dawn BOG 8/1
    Colin

  8. Frankie figures…..Racing Post info: Overall 3 yo turf = 24% + £32.42
    Overall 4 + yo. turf = 18% + £47.13

    Sandown At The Races figures: -£17.06

    Top Jocks are De Sousa, Ryan Moore, Charles Bishop
    Top Trainers are Stoute, Cox, Balding

    Not sure if these stats are worth basing selections on but put them up as a matter of interest and a free on the mentioned web sites

  9. 3.00 Sandown….Desirous w/o

    Was going to put this up e/w put now a sad seven runners…boring bit reason is a good enough price for the time clocked over 8f which is 36.48 mph and is faster than Hidden Message and Muchly on my figures ….Muchly has clocked 35.34 mph over 7.96 furlongs and Hidden Message was behind that horse by 3.5 lengths and see no reason for a turn around on that form, so based on the speed cannot back against the selection….Encapsulation is an interesting runner but not sure a drop in trip will be effective and is below the averages I use to determine the proficiency of a horse…we shall see.

  10. Not a good day overall…….slippery Saturday…most of the horses put up ran ok with the exception of Desirous which showed nothing that the namesake may have indicated!! ….may be something amiss but disappointing all the same…..onwards..

    1. So may races today were not truly run. Well to my eye and that’s only ones I watched at Sandown and Haydock. Slow pace / kick seemed to be order of the day, and any horse not front rank in a few of them had no chance. That was case in the 3pm that Frankie dictated and the 3.15 Haydock… I was surprised how slow they looked to go there, my two who I knew would be held off the pace had no chance, loads of those in behind would not settle off the slow fractions. Winner of that got a superb ride. That’s racing, but some of that form will be turned on head when many of those in behind get a proper gallop to settle off and cruise into.

      1. Not as sure as you on the reason but the quality of the horses running today not the best with the exception of Enable who is a super star… the disappointment for me today was the winner Hidden Message and the turn around in form with Muchly but that is horse racing so will take that on the chin on carry on regardless as they say….did anyone see the Matt Chapman interview with Corals guy…usually not my cup of tea but spot on in having a go at the bookies not wanting punters to win….the highlight being the profit figures of over ONE BILLION made by a bookie conglomerate that was SP on Frankie’s last ride what a f….g joke was the rep’s explanation when challenged on restricting punters….so Chapman spot on for once…

        1. Yep, suppose a more general point from few races I saw today that interpretations of ‘form’ pre race can make us all look silly post race if said race is run at a dawdle. I got the Haydock one wrong, thought they’d go a decent pace in that.

          1. I think it is down to consistency of form and time after time the better quality horses have that consistency of form that is lacking in horses that do not have that….. ….a general principle in any sport that quality equates with that consistency of form which for punters trying to predict the future is essential in trying to pick winners….lower grades are far more unpredictable and the element of chance gives the bookies more of an edge than already have and like politicians try and sell you a stale cake as being freshly made with the restrictive odds, lack of runners for each way etc., they are hardly going to admit manipulating markets, race conditions etc., in their favour are they???

          2. Yep but how a race is run and thus how the form is achieved is arguably one of most important factors on flat, and is intrinsically linked to our interpretation of consistency of form. Some horses will only perform when settling off a strong pace and a pace collapse etc. They could achieve great figures in said conditions but do sod all when then racing in a 7 runner race with a make all winner who never went a gallop, (ie Derby winner NTO) stacked up and kicked.
            Obviously the more class you have the less that can matter, but the best generally have the best temperaments etc, esp middle distance. You could put Enable anywhere in a race for example, I’m not sure it would matter.
            All those reasons are why this sport is so good, all with our different methods trying to work out said form, how it was achieved and what said horse may produce in today’s conditions

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