Members Daily Post: 05/07/19 (Sat Trends)

SAT Trends / Chase Tip x1 (+write up), Nick’s Tips x3, Section 1 (x1), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Doncaster

2.00 – Enchanted Linda   (all Hc’s) H1 G1 9/2 S1 

 

Beverley

7.15 –

Dreamseller   (3yo+,micro age)  ES+ H1 15/2 S3A S6 

Grimsdyke   (3yo+,m age)  ES+ 33/1 S3A

8.20 –

Mr Greenlight   (3yo+,m age)  ES+ 22/1 S3A

War Ensign   (3yo+,m age)  ES+ G3 12/1 S3A 

8.50 – Agravain   (3yo+,m age  w2  ES+ H3 I1 7/2 S3A#

 

Haydock

5.50 – Artistic Streak   (all Hc’s,m dist) 13/2 

8.30 –

Arcanada   (all Hc’s,m dist)  w1 H3 I3 10/3 

Calder Prince   (all Hc’s,m dist) 6/1 

 

Sandown.……None

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NO JUMPS QUALS 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 16/80, 27p +35.8)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/42,19p, -1.5)

 

Daily Tips 

4.20 Newton A – Marble Moon – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 2nd  (head) 11/4 – ah darn. He was the right bet in the race, got the value, the only comfort there. The right two battled it out.  He was ridden a tad colder than I hoped and when they finish that strongly over 26f and just fail to get up, it’s always annoying. James Bowen has out-ridden Wedge there (clearly a reason his NA stats are what they are – need to be active far sooner than plenty of tracks). Was a strange one, if he’d got properly stuck sooner, he’d have got up, provided his jumping held when launched. It’s a short run in after the last. He is a buzzy sort hence the tactics. Annoying, but that’s racing, a game of fine margins at times and when you back a chaser you know won’t be up there, that can happen. 

 

that’s all for today, write up…

I thought the selection was the most interesting horse in this race at the prices and with any luck he can return to his progressive winning ways on only his 6th chase start. There should be more to come from this mark, and on this fast ground which he seems to appreciate. He got off the mark 3 starts back at Ludlow when hacking up hard held. The RPR of 119 there reads well against those above him in the market. On his next start he UR early on, under the inexperience Izzy Williams (over fences) when they were out of sync with each other. 

His run LTO in a 0-140 handicap hurdle was interesting. I’m not sure they went that quick but he was still tanking 3f from home, before not doing very little- albeit his jockey didn’t seem to be working over-time. Maybe he felt that he had little left but he was only beaten 8L or so up against horses rated 130+ in front of him. This is quite the drop back in class, back chasing. He’s a course winner over hurdles and has a fair bit of pace on paper to track. It feels competitive enough but hopefully i’m on the right one…

Of the rest… well River of Intrigue and Little Windmill could take this but they have to prove they can win from these marks, and at the prices/their profiles, that put me off. Little Windmill’s run LTO is working out well and may be the best recent chase form in this. But both may run their race when others do not. 

I don’t like Lord In Red at the prices. He beat the same horse two starts back that the selection also beat at Ludlow. He’s a few questions going left handed over fences, I didn’t like his head carriage at Huntingdon and his trainer is 1/22 in the last 30 days, 0/10,0p in the last 14. For a 2s shot you want all your ducks lined up and he’s got a few questions and is worth taking on I think. But he is also open to further progress over fences. 

I can leave the other two although some money for Findusatgorcombe – i’d have thought Bryony would have been on her dads horse if really fancied but I could be wrong. In any case I didn’t think 6s was overly generous for this 92 rated chaser. 4 of these have to underperform for him to be in with a shout I thought. Fast ground is a question as is the track I think. 

PACE… River of Intrigue and Little Windmill could take each other on through this- hopefully they do and mine sits mid div, just behind them. The fav can go forward also. The selection has shown a high cruising speed to the naked eye and with any luck he can scoot around here. 

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Review… sadly little to report. No run for my money from my big priced poke as he was unlucky on the landing side of the first fence I think. His form tied in with the 3rd (Roll of Thunder…who doesn’t stay but travelled like an in form horse/well handicapped one still). Anyway I don’t think that race is great form, even for the summer months, but we shall see. Not knowing is always frustrating, esp when they halve in price, but that’s the jumping game and he came back in one piece which is the main thing, jockey unhurt also. 

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Flat Test 2019 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 BOG / +2.19 Advised , May -8.97/-8.22, July TBC)

4.00 Sand – Beringer – 1.5pt WIN–  5/1 (gen) 2nd 11/2 , -1.5 

7.15 Bev – Dreamseller – 1point EW – 15/2 (gen) (1/5,4p) 

8.30 Hayd – Certain Lad – 1 .5 point WIN – 11/2 (bet365) 5/1 (gen) 

 

that’s all, as of 7.56 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

2.10 NA – The Jam Man 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

June Tipping Comp Winner

On my compiled figures… Junes Tipping Comp Winner is…

MIKEYDEE …. well done. 

It was generally a tough month with only 4 of the 24 players in positive territory. 

Mikey returned… 36 bets / 4 wins / +34.33 BFSP (+30.81 after commission) . 

Which means in the last two months he’s 21/153, +80 or so points BFSP I think. Top stuff. 

Last months winner Chrisiwyg also had another positive month. Two tipsters in form. 

Changes… To the Prizes…

Well there’s only 24 or so regular players so your chances of success are high enough 🙂 

The first prize for top ROI will now get £30 cash in hand. (still worth winning i’d hope!) 

There will be a £20 prize for the biggest profit to BFSP (after 5% commission) If they are the same person it will go down to the next in on the profit table. 

So, there are two prizes up for grabs now. 

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Saturday Big Race Trends

Old Newton Cup

10/156, 35p

10/10 yet to run beyond 2m (16f) (had: 0/36, 5p)

10/10 had 3+ runs in prev 90 days (0-2: 0/76, 13p)

10/10 had 3+ runs this season (0-2: 0/69, 11p)

9/10 had been ridden by jockey at least once (0: 1/61, 9p)

8/10 won at least once last 3 runs (8/85, 27p)

6/10 Top 2 LTO (6/56, 14p)

5/10 up 1 class from last run (5/27, 11p, +38 BFSP)

Other

  • Claiming jockeys: 0/21, 2p

Track LTO

  • Hayd: 2/9, 3p
  • Ascot: 2/32, 8p
  • Epsom: 0/16, 3p

 

Trainers (22 years, with runners)

  • First Eleven (Gosden: 1/5, 2p)
  • Charles Kingsley / Aquarium (Johnston: 3/36, 7p)
  • Koeman (Channon: 1/7, 1p)

22 Year Pointers

  • 22/22 yet to RUN beyond 16f in career 
  • 21/21 (of those with a career win) had WON over at least 10.5f+ 
  • 14/22 Aged 4
  • 11/22 won or 2nd LTO

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Shortlist

3x 10/10 stats leave 10/65, 19p …

Charles Kingsley / Lucius Tiberius / Epaulement / Aquarium / Society Red / Everything For You 

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Hi All

    Question for you all, I have generally used bet365 with my main bets on the exchanges. I used Bet365 mainly to place smaller bets to track and prove services/systems, as I was able to copy and paste my historic results to excel docs which would then update. Bet365 have changed their website so you can no longer copy and paste from the history section, which means I have to update everything manually!!!!!

    Can anyone recommend any other bookie sites or even tools I could use to quickly record my bets on my phone whilst out and about and then transfer to an excel doc later? I tend to track a lot of services and my own systems, so placing very small value bets on Bet365 I found to be the quickest way whilst out and about, and then go back whenever I had free time and transfer to excel.

    Any help, advice would be appreciated as this change has ruined all my stat keeping!!!!

    Cheers,
    Neil

    1. Ladbrokes allow you to export your betting history to a csv file which can be read by Excel. If you go to Account then Sports Bet History. It’s not brilliant but might give you what you need

  2. COLINS BETS
    Haydock
    6.20 Kapono BOG 3/1
    6.20 Mr Buttons BOG 4/1
    8.30 Ginger Fox BOG 11/2
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    Colin

  3. A close call yesterday, Singles 2 seconds at 12s and 8s and 2 3rds at 14s and 20s..still some ew profit.
    Trixie 2 place and 1 winner.

    2,40 NA Kilcara
    8.00 H Cavelry Park
    6.20 H Manana Chica
    5.50 H Artistic Streak

    Yankee
    4.20 NA Lord in Red
    2.10 NA Cottonvale
    6.20 H Kapono
    7.45 B Ollivander

    Mike

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 4.20 – River of Intrigue on 1st run @ 7/2
    S 4.35 – Machine Learner on 4th run @ 16
    S 5.05 – Biotic on 6th run @ 9/2
    B 7.15 – Destination Aim on 4th run @ 28
    3m+
    Wx 7.40 – Crosshue Boy on 5th run @ 10

  5. 2.20. Sandown Makyon w/o.

    Dislike putting up shorties especially when there are enough runners for some e/w value but cannot see past the selection currently @ 3/1…did look hard at Rayong @ 6/1 for e/w value as it was hampered last time out but not enough juice in the price and my projection is that it would not have matched the selection’s speed if this had not happened (watch it prove me wrong!) so, sadly just the win only on the selection above. Tad unlucky yesterday with Incinerator @ 9/1 e/w but at least the price meant a small profit and read the race correctly which is more to the point as validates the methodology…… gd lck if playing.

    1. Not sure if something amiss with my selection or if the ride of Ryan all wrong trying to lead and burn them all off…..really not sure about Ryan at times but think he got that all wrong and was stone last… the winner was classy and the horse I agonised over e/w drifted to 7/1 so respectable e/w if I had backed it!!!…hope someone did.

      1. Oh I’ve said it before but Ryan Moore is the most over rated jockey out there. Unless he is riding in a Grade 1 he doesn’t seem to care.

        1. Tad harsh I think but agree he is certainly over bet but just think it was a bad ride and possibly thought the horse was better than it was by setting off in front but definitely a question mark over Ryan’s judgement more frequently than you would expect from a top class jockey…

          1. I don’t mean he is the worst jockey out there but so many put him on such a high pedestal where as he no better than about 10-20 others out there. Personally I try and avoid him if I can particularly in big field sprints.

      2. I have a friend who works at the Johnston yard and he said some of the horses have scoped “dirty”, which I know means the vets scrape them and it comes back clear or dirty i believe, not an expert in it and my mate is, he can waffle on for ages about it, but, it does hinder their running potential etc. Just putting that out their for what it`s worth…some of them may have excuses. I`m with NickM though…Moore does not want to know unless it`s Grp 1.

        1. Interesting info…thanks for sharing…may explain the run combined with Ryan’s ride..thanks

        2. Stewart thanks for that will keep my eye on MJ runners for am a fan of his training methods, and back his horses on many occassions in HCs

          Do you live near Middleham? if so lucky you early mornings on those bleak gallops, cold in summer would not be surprised if they have snow in July.
          Colin.

      3. Do not think anything wrong for it has tried to make the running 4 times out of its 4 races including Royal Ascot, and if Mark Johnson tells Ryan Moore to make all then he does what he his told!
        After today the owner and trainer may decide Makyon is only a class 4 horse, for it 3 previous races were over 6f and it only won a class 4 at Hamilton on SOFT going not GD/Firm as today, and dropping back to the stiff 5f at Sandown did not work.
        No way Ryan Moore can be blamed why knock the horse about giving it a hard race when the jockey knows the horse is not good enough, always another day on the Northern or Scottish circuit in its own class.
        Colin.

        1. Colin he is only a 2 year old, who the official handicapper has already rated 96 – he’s a lot of regression to come before he drops into a C4 – that was an auction race – a bit hard to tell what his level in open company will be! On RPRs he was the 3rd best horse in that race, on their total/top level rating – he clearly hasn’t run his race has he – he’s either got worked up, shot his bolt, gone too hard or is sick, or some other problem. MJs usually want it quick due to bloodlines he buys, and he’s enough good runs on GF. Assessing his class level a bit pointless given his profile. He needs a few more runs, both at 2, then 3, before it becomes clear what his level or ideal conditions are but he won’t be seeing C4 for some time! 🙂

          1. Josh may not be seeing C4 for some time but will he be winning until he his proven at the higher level will not be having my money on him.
            Between 22/24% of horses in training actually win races! the rest do not!
            Mark Johnson qualfied vet if there was the slightest inclination that anything was wrong he would not have sent it all the way to Sandown, and yes i am a great fan of Mark Johnsons training methods.
            MJ just won the 5.25 at Chelmsford so for us it is a case of watching his runners over the next 14 days to see if there is a decline in performance, or wait for MJ to say the stable has an issue, and he will close his operation down like he has done in the past.
            On a lighter note feel both our middle names are Tommy (Opposite ) for i await the day that you agree with me, to say ridden on the gallops stopped at Dai’s own stables many,many times totally been involved helped to saddle them up on the course, totally trusted go into any box on my own for over 30 years yet i know nothing, amazing and yes won my bet for knew you would respond and disagree with me Ha Ha
            Cheers
            Colin

          2. We are not talkikng about an exposed handicapper here Colin. That’s a different debate and one we’d also have haha.
            If you think that horse has run his race I’ve no real words. Something was clearly up. And you may be correct that he found the ground too quick but on same score MJ wouldn’t have run him if so. Something has clearly gone wrong in day as above.
            With these unexposed horses you can’t use proven form to make judgements on what they could do, most of the time. That’s when speed, Silvers approach ratings, sectional times etc all come into play. But then class one is a specialist area and like me you’re more of a handicapping punter I think.
            When that horse wins a nice class 2 or a listed race we will remember this chat haha.
            If you looked at him and concluded he wouldn’t run a race today because he’s only won a c4 novice on soft then so be it, but that isn’t the way to look at those unexposed 2 year olds in races such as that imo.

          3. Oh and as an aside Johnston has at least 2 yards doesn’t he? If not more. With horses from each rarely if ever coming into contact. Prob why he can be so consistent. His stable been on fire in last 2 weeks so will be interesting if something up. Some may run screamers and others tail off.

          4. Josh they can give an horse any rating they wish does not mean it will win off it, was it Shareef Dancer what was bought in the yearling sales for around £9, million in the late 80s or early 90s and it never raced.
            Even a 2yo needs to show that it wants to win, you cannot back them willy nilly and yes i prefer seasoned HCs who have won in its correct class and if its done it once it can do it again.
            Todays race was the 4th time it tried to make all being brought back to a stiff 5f maybe it wants 7f and needs to be held up will be intresting to see where it runs next, but MJ will certainly try to find the key.
            Afraid little harsh on Ryan Moore how many years has he had the Ballydole job, at least he turns up where Frankie cannot be arsed if it raining and hes riding at Windsor and channel 3 racing team was taking the piss out of him over this, just think of the connections who had employed him to ride their horse and looking forward to meeting him for only no show Frankie, and yes he did this once when down to ride one of Dai’s probably 20 years ago.
            Both Ryan and Frankie are both excellent jockeys totally different characters, Frankie wants the limelight where reserved Ryan would probably prefer not to give an interview.
            Cheers
            Colin
            Thats me done you will be pleased!!!! for can hear town calling me.

          5. On this specific example you clearly think you’re right again. I think I’m right. So we will agree to disagree and leave that there. Enjoy town.

  6. 3.25. Sandown. Chief Ironside w/o.

    Worth a small win only @ around 10/1 against Elarqam…just unfortunate that there are only seven runners for any each way value…the reasoning is my figures show that the selection is faster over the distance on projected figures and at 10/1 is too big a price to ignore…the fav may well win but too short for me to back at the price. Gd .lck if playing

    1. Did try to get the fav beat but my selection just not good enough so hopefully better tomorrow.

    1. AA outridden there I feel, frustrating – just got going a tad too late imo, was finishing best, Spencer got the run on him.

    1. well it was nearly perfect, but he should have won that given his finishing speed, frustrating. Just took too long to get going it would seem.

      1. Unlucky that Josh, thought he was travelling easily the best coming down the back then winner just got a bit of a run on him early in the finish and that’s ultimately what’s won it the race cus MM storming at the end

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