Members Daily Post: 04/07/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Perth

3.10 –

Creadan Grae   (HcCh,micro runs) I1 11/4 

Witness in Court   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ H1 I3 11/4 S3A#  Fell

4.10 –

Viens Chercher   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I1 5/4  2nd 

Ned Stark   (HcCh,m runs) H3 I3 4/1  WON

5.10 –

Skeaping   (m +class) 7/1 

Prince Khurram   (all Hc’s)  w2  ES+ 14/1 S3A

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FLAT

Haydock

3.30 –

Mickey   (all Hc’s) I3 11/2  WON

Liberation Day   (all Hc’s) 33/1 

Sir Victor   (all Hc’s) 16/1 

4.30 – This Girl   (all Hc’s,m dist) 8/1 

 

Yarmouth

3.50 –

Glory Awaits   (all Hc’s)  ES+ I3 12/1 S3A

Lacan   (all Hc’s,3yo+) 25/1 

4.20 – Quduraat   (m dist) 25/1 

4.50 – Swiss Peak   (all Hc’s,3yo+) H3 7/2 

5.20 –

Bartholomew J   (4yo+,m class) 12/1 

Brittanic   (all Hc’s)  ES+  I3 G3 10/1 S3A#

 

Epsom

7.15 – Highland Acclaim   (3yo+) 3/1 

8.20 – Ideal Grace   (all Hc’s,m age) G3 12/1 

 

Newbury.…..None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 16/79, 26p +36.8)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/42,19p, -1.5)

Daily Tips 

4.40 Perth – Highland Peak – 1 point win – 22/1 (bet365/BV) 20/1 (gen)  UR/BD 11/1 – oh well that’s always annoying but the horse is fine which is the main thing – he’s jumped into one and came down after the fence I think, short of room , clipping heels maybe. Annoying when you never know esp when half in price but that’s jumping. 

that’s all for daily tips, as of 8.40, write up incoming…

It’s possible Chanceiton, like Viens Chercher in the previous race (should bolt up baring and accident imo, but is priced to do so for a chaser but some may judge 5/4 to be value still), bolts up in this – but speedy Perth is different to Hexham and I can live in hope that he may get outpaced at some stage or isn’t nimble enough. That may be nonsense but at this level they don’t tend to be the most consistent of animals and Russell is only 1/29,6p with her 3m handicap chasers here in recent years. He could make 2s look generous also, but i’ll take him on… If he does underperform, or gets outpaced at times (as he’s done around here over hurdles) then this race becomes open and anything could happen. 

Highland Peak… at 20s or so I wanted to roll the dice with this 7 year old. He’s clearly no world beater but it’s only the 13th handicap of his life and 6th handicap chase. Connections will be hoping he’ll do something from this mark one day. He doesn’t look the biggest from the replays i’ve just watched but he can jump and there are bits and pieces of form that make him of some interest. The run at Kelso three starts back in a 22f C4 where he was beaten 12L wasn’t too bad – he was out tapped for toe a tad there at a crucial stage but stayed on well and was doing all his best work late, suggesting these extra 2f may help him. NTO at Perth he was probably going best at 9/4 when he jumped the fence well but slithered on landing, game over – allowed to complete in his own time after that. I’m not sure what happened LTO, but he did lose a show and the ground may have been tacky enough for him. He may also appreciate having no weight at all on his back, given his size. If I go back to 8 starts ago last July in a 24f novice handicap hurdle here off 89… well he was going to be second at worst there and was probably going better than the horse that brought him down at the last. In any case it would have been a battling second with a gap back to the rest but he may have won it. It was shaping to be his best run to date. 

So, there are bits and pieces of form and he gets a different jockey to have a go, his claim helping with the fact he’s 2lb out of the handicap. He shouldn’t be held up too far off the pace and if he can hold a prominent position, then who knows. They may try and be aggressive with him but a few in here do like to get on with it. There was just something there for this lightly raced sort, at his price, which lured me in. It may come to very little but I’ll roll the dice. I’m hoping the rain showers stay away as i’m not sure that would be ideal. If he could improve on the trainer’s 5/23,10p record with her good ground handicap chasers here in recent years, that would be great! 

Of the rest – well I don’t like anything else bar the fav, at the prices. Plenty haven’t won or don’t like winning very often and have as many questions as mine, but are much shorter etc etc. 

 

Flat Test 2019 

None. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 BOG / +2.19 Advised , May -8.97/-8.22, July TBC)

No tips on Thursday. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

4.10 Perth – Viens Chercher  2nd

Trainers to follow

5.10 Perth – Amalfi Doug 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.10 Perth – Viens Chercher  2nd

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

4.10 Perth – Viens Chercher  2nd

4.40 Perth – Chanceiton  2nd

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

June Tipping Comp Winner

On my compiled figures… Junes Tipping Comp Winner is…

MIKEYDEE …. well done. 

It was generally a tough month with only 4 of the 24 players in positive territory. 

Mikey returned… 36 bets / 4 wins / +34.33 BFSP (+30.81 after commission) . 

Which means in the last two months he’s 21/153, +80 or so points BFSP I think. Top stuff. 

Last months winner Chrisiwyg also had another positive month. Two tipsters in form. 

 

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Results Updates 

Well it hasn’t been a great year to date and for those of you still here, thanks! 🙂 Much work to do…

Spreadsheet HERE>>>

I’ll start with a positive of sorts…

My Daily Tips

Since I had words with myself in late Feb and ‘went back to basics’,  focusing on 3m+ handicap chases, C4+ that daily pile is looking solid… from 22nd Feb as of 3rd July…

64 bets / 16 wins / 24 places (inc wins) / 25% win SR / 37.5% w|p / +53.8 points (BOG) / 2019 total +37.8 

That’s not a shabby set of results for what is 16/17 weeks worth of tipping and with any luck it will continue ticking along albeit a 84% ROI may be hard to maintain! 🙂 I have the time, the tools and the knowledge for that to be a 100+ point a year section and that’s what i’ll aim for. The free posts will continue to house the big Grade 3 staying chases (mainly the Nationals etc… they are 2/33,5p, +2, +15 BFSP in 2019). Still much work to do, but it’s heading in the right direction. 

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Section 1 Strategies

Jumps S1 is still on holiday….

Jumps S3A#

  • June : 0/4,0p
  • 2019: 14/54, 27p… +6.325

Flat S6 

  • June: 4/23, 5p, +7.75 
  • 2019 : 5/52, 13p, +1.75 (+6 in July so far) 

Solid if unspectacular from those two so far this year, and the Jumps S1/S3A# , Flat S6 portfolio is waiting to burst into life but it is just about in profit and if a few more placed horses turn into winners, happy days. Those 3 could have a big second half to the year and sail through +100 points, albeit that seems some way off at the moment. 

Elsewhere… 

Well i’ll mention Jumps S3A (the Elite Squad…any section 1 jumps qualifier with an ES+ next to their name) which highlights those researched angles with at least 10 winners in the research period and a 25% win SR, historically. 

Thanks to a Peter Bowen double at Cartmel those are now looking very healthy…

  • June: 5/33, 11p, +25
  • 2019: 37/205, 70p, +55.6

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Nick’s Tips

My figures for June: 63 bets / 4 wins / 22 places (inc wins) / -33.98 (advised/BOG) 

2019 P/L  end June: -31.79 (advised/non bog) / -31.04 (BOG) 

I won’t dwell on these figures for too long as there isn’t too much to say. Such runs/losses are within the ranges of what you’d expect given long term win SRs etc and in part I think the betting Gods are still punishing Nick for 2018, which was just silly. Clearly that’s not much consolation for this year so far but it’s always a game of fine margins, esp on the flat. May could have easily been a +30/40 point month with a tad more luck and there were a handful of agonising seconds in June also. That’s how it goes. The win/place SR last month was 35% and if that’s maintained, it will turn. Nick’s only a handful of winners away from being back into positive territory. Such results highlight the importance of betting banks and a bank of at least 100 points should be used for Nick, starting small and building up over time. Nick’s racing head is in a good place still and it’s just one of those runs you have to get through, that every person who bets on horses and/or tips will go through. They are a fact of betting on horses, esp when in the 8s+ range. 

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In general it’s been the most turgid time with mediocre performance (when looked at as a portfolio) across the board just dragging on and on. For those of you still here your support is much appreciated. I’ve lost more members in recent months than I care to think about but if you’ve only been in these parts in more recent times, I can’t be surprised. While I try to add more to your racing experience than just a running profit/loss score, ultimately that’s where the long term judgement lies. I want to do some more in terms of structured knowledge sharing/ideas to help with your own analysis type content – more reports/videos/step by step/simplification etc – so that there’s more residual value outside of everything else above. I should probably send out a survey and see if a) there’s an interest for such content b) what sort of stuff you want. I suspect most of those that have abandoned ship is due to the overall results, having never seen the good days,  but there’s a chance that I could be offering more/or something different. I’m not sure. In any case hopefully in 6 months time the mood will feel very different, and the bank balances will look a bit healthier. 

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From Worcester….

Review…  the win of Wilberdragon is nearly as satisfying as it gets in this game, piecing together the puzzle, reading between the lines, a large drift, and a comfortable win (come the line). The wind op clearly worked wonders, the yard were going much bette than when he was last running and Coleman was on fire – a confident jockey can/does transmit to the horse. It was obvious on his old form that if all of the above worked he would out-class them off that mark, was just then a game of subjective price judgement.  Moving forward…

Eye-Catchers/Horses for the future… 

I think the two Tizzard horses are worth noting…

Bramble Brook… he was visibly outpaced down the back, losing his position before then working into it. He did stay on and I wonder with his ageing legs whether he’s worth a go over further. I wasn’t sure as to his stamina before this but he stayed on to the line. Maybe a headgear change and/or a smaller field/reverting to aggressive tactics. Arguably the right horses came 1st and 2nd so for summer form, it’s solid enough. He jumped well on the whole, just didn’t have the tactical speed mid race over this trip/on this ground. He does handle softer. 

Shoal Bay… must frustrate connections as there is some ability there. He still jumps out to his left. I wonder if he needs to go LH but with the fences up against the rail…somewhere like Newton Abbot, possibly with an aggressive ride/slightly shorter trip. 

Delgany Demon… well he’s 11 and isn’t getting any younger but Dan must have got him into the yard for a reason- he does like winners, both for him and his brother. This was more promising – he was always out the back, could never really go the pace, and plugged on. He’s form on softer and over further. His mark is plummeting and there were ok signs here. It may be the case that when it all clicks/he gets his conditions, he puts together 2/3/4 wins. Either that or he’s actually regressed and he’ll be shipped out the yard soon. Maybe they will try blinkers and make all tactics one day! 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Tremendous efforts from Josh, Nick & Colin yesterday.
    Fair to say all three have had a rough time of late, but all put up big priced winners yesterday. Well done, chaps.

    traf69 04/07/19 8:00 AM Reply


    • cheers Chris. It’s been a tough old few months for sure, albeit losses wise not too bad, but I suppose unless you’ve been around for a while, keeping the faith over a 6 month period when betting banks are not going anywhere isn’t much fun! But, I’m not sure I know a service that hasn’t had a prolonged ‘meh’ period at one point or another in recent years. That’s just the game, it can tame lions.

      Josh 04/07/19 12:27 PM Reply


    • Thanks for that Chris it is nice to recieve a boost and totally agree with Joshs sentiments he can always use words better than myself, however a poor run always drains my confidence.
      Elite have every confidence that it will will win over 100 points by the end of the year, that was always my target and over the past 6 months doing no different from 20 to 30 years ago when backing it, always was and always will be long losing runs, has you well know it is long term profit over 12 months which counts, sadly punters do not take a positive outlook and compare 100 points against the intrest from Nat West, Lloyds and all of them.
      Thanks for the boost and its nice to know you are watching.
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 04/07/19 1:17 PM Reply


  • 3/4 in the yankee yesterday, 2nd time this week, can’t last?
    Nice 12s winner as well.
    3,30 H Lady of Aran/ Mickey (Lol)
    5.10 P Prince Charmin/Spectator
    2.40P General Allenby

    Trixie
    2.10 P Cats for Cash
    2.40 P Dukes Girl
    3.10 P Creaden Grae

    Mike

    mickeydee 04/07/19 8:15 AM Reply


    • Well done Mike… As above I think you’re June’s tipping comp winner also, and what with your results last month it’s fair to say you’re in form! +80 odd points from 153 bets or so in May/June from you I think. And now you’re throwing in 3/4 yankees to boot. Top bombing.

      Josh 04/07/19 12:24 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh,

        Hope that isn’t the kiss of death. Ha Ha.

        Mike

        mickeydee 04/07/19 2:27 PM Reply


  • Keep up the good work Josh. I’m amazed by anyone who has been here over a year and has left. Long term profit is good and this place is more than that anyway for a relatively small monthly outlay.

    Geoff W 04/07/19 9:00 AM Reply


    • thanks Geoff – it is tricky, I can understand people being unhappy or losing faith over a prolonged period- I mean if I look at the ‘portfolio’ of Jumps S1/S3A#, Flat S6, my daily tips / Big race tips and Nick’s Tips – which when reduced down is what performance can be judged on over time- the losses have been more than manageable , still hovering around -35-45 I think collectively – it has been a long time to keep the faith and hope for an upturn. If you’d have been backing the above, or even some of them, from start of 2018 then you’re laughing all the way to the bank and would have confidence that it will improve at some point – but if you haven’t seen that, or can’t look back and have the faith it will turn, and dont have the correct banks/start small etc, then you’re likely to head for the exit door – and many have sadly. But that’s my job to get some of them back and find some new people to attract. All part of the game.
      I’d like to think there’s much more to this place than the above and it’s my job to try and offer useful content outside of said performance but ultimately you want to be backing winners and your betting bank progressing. I’d like to think we may be in line for an almighty spike between now and Xmas, but time will tell! 🙂

      There’s a reason only 2-3% of racing punters win long term – and in reality I think it’s about how you get through periods like the last 6/7 months – there’s no service on my radar from colleagues that has never not had a prolonged down period or one that’s stayed static etc. Of course there will be some out there but that’s the game and as per above, the ‘portfolio’ loss should be more than manageable to date and a few more nice winners and it will be back into positive territory. Much work to do still though.
      onwards.

      Josh 04/07/19 12:34 PM Reply


    • Hi Geoff
      The fickle punter, had a tipping line supported by another company and ended up doing a 3 month Free trial which won every month, subscribers joined 2 more winning months for mega profits, so 5 winning months out of 5, the 6th month was a losing month not by a lot but half the subscribers stopped paying another couple of winning months then another losing month and most of the subscribers pulled out.
      Within this time span a blip and the company gave 5/6 subscribers my mobile phone number and did i recieve verbal abuse from them!
      Colin

      cleafe 04/07/19 1:04 PM Reply


      • As one of the (generally) silent ones on here, I totally agree with Geoff. I suspect many of those who jumped ship were the “get-rich-quick” brigade who joined based on past performance and were looking for an outight tipping site.

        I am sure that those who have been on here longer (or those with a more level-headed attitude) see it as a forum that offers chat, banter, good advice, well thought out tips and a generally positive yet conservative mindset. I mean there cannot be a site that has mentioned the phrase “betting bank” more than this one!!

        Given that the cost is barely more than a few of those fancy Lattes with funny milk, I, like Geoff, can’t believe that anyone who has been on here for any length of time would leave because they were disappointed with results because to my mind that is never what this site has purely been about.

        Having said that, I am really pleased for yesterday’s positive results for the regular tipsters. It can’t be easy sticking your neck out giving tips especially on losing runs so thanks to Josh and all those who reguarly do so. It is much appreciated.

        Cheers

        Ben

        921389 04/07/19 2:33 PM Reply


        • Ben
          You have summed that up very well from a long term user perspective – this site isn’t just about tips but a much more holistic view of racing
          Josh
          I suspect that you would get little feedback from those who do depart but do you do any sort of – as you go any feedback on why your leaving questionaire? (Be prepared for abuse) it may help shape the offering

          finalflight 04/07/19 3:33 PM Reply


          • No I don’t, and clearly I probably should! 🙂 I can handle abuse, no bother. I always fear i’m never doing enough on the intro stage but then I just have to accept a % just won’t ever bother to take the time to ‘get it’, nor be patient enough, or to even see if it’s for them – that’s just the way it is. There’s always plenty for me to improve, outside of actual performance.

            Josh 04/07/19 4:57 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Festival
    E 6.05 – Polish on 4th run @ 15/2

    Titus 04/07/19 9:28 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    8.30 Newbury Cogital BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Haydock Hallalulu BOG 7/2
    2.40 Perth Duke’s Girl BOG 5/1
    5.10 Perth Green Zone BOG 6/1
    6.05 Epsom Blazing Saddles BOG 10/3
    Colin

    cleafe 04/07/19 10:03 AM Reply


  • 2.50 Yarmouth…. Incinerator e/w.

    Iffraaz may well be hard to beat but cannot back at the price so Incinerator e/w is closely matched so worth a punt each way. Gd lck if playing.

    silver 04/07/19 2:06 PM Reply


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