Members Daily Post: 03/07/19 (complete)

Chase tip x1 (+write up), Nick’s Tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Worcester

2.50 – Delgany Demon   (micro dist) 8/1 

*

FLAT

Musselburgh

3.00 –

Tomorrows Angel   (m dist) 20/1 

Elite Icon   (m runs) 14/1 

Hugoigo   (m -class) I1 G3 9/1 S6 UP

5.35 – Pammi   (m’s -class and runs) I1 9/2 

 

Thirsk

3.40 –

Related   (m dist) G3 8/1 

Charlies Boy   (m TJC) 16/1 

4.40 –

Muscika   (m TJC)  w2 I3 7/2 

The Armed Man   (all Hc’s)  I3 8/1 

 

Bath

6.10 –

Pastfact   (m dist)  ES+  10/1 S3A 

Compton Poppy   (4yo+,m going) 33/1 

6.40 – Mutawaffer   (all Hc’s) 3/1 

 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 16/78, 26p +37.8)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/42,19p, -1.5)

Daily Tips 

2.50 Worc 

Wilberdragon – 1 point win – 9/1 (uniB) 8/1 (gen)  WON 8/1>14/1 SP 

write up on the way, as of 09.13…

This is a tricky conundrum of a race and in effect i’m tossing a coin as to whether the wind op has worked/was the reason for his recent efforts – IF it has, either today, or on his next couple of starts, then he’ll be hacking up somewhere. He was well backed LTO, made an error, lost his place a tad, then plugged on. I suspect connections were surprised with the run and had him checked out, hence the op. He’s clearly not been the easiest horse to train in the world given his rest patterns/breaks etc etc but it was only 6 starts back he was beaten 6L at Sandown in a C3 novice handicap chase off 124 – with the likes of Touch Kick, Darebin and Ramore Will in front of him,  a race which has produced a few subsequent winners. That was in December 17, which indicates that he’s clearly had some niggles. Two starts before that he hacked up at Wincanton off 118. He races off 109 here, against ‘summer’ opposition. That win was on decent ground which seems to be important to him. His trainer has also been through a quiet spell, possibly when he was last running, but they are going well again now 2/5,3p in the last 14 days. Coleman is riding well also, 8/23,14p in the last 14 days. Trainer and Jockey are 5/25,8p in the last year and Longsdon in 4/19,7p, +24 in 23f handicap chases at the track in the last 5 years. He does have to prove he stays but 23f around here will be fine I think and in any case the price just allows the play. It is a stab and he doesn’t show up well on any ratings etc (HRB/Inform) , mainly as he hasn’t done much for a few runs now, hence the tumbling mark. But there was enough there and this is only his 14th chase, so he’s lightly raced for his age, and without doubt he’s well handicapped. Longsdon was quoted once as saying he’s one of the best horses he’s had based on homework, but getting him to repeat it on track has been a challenge. With any luck the wind op has done the trick. I’d expect some market support if they think it has worked, but maybe they don’t know until he runs. It could be that the second run after the op is the time to catch him but I expect a bolt up job at some point soon, if it’s worked. It could be they were just clutching at straws and he’s a deeper problem that he may not come back from. Given the race, at 8s I’ll roll the dice. 

PACE… well I expect him to try and make all and in any case be in the first 3 – he’s probably got more class/pace than the others who can press the lead, but if he’s here to run his race he won’t be held up. I can dream of him getting these on the stretch and approaching the last hard held – which isn’t impossible, if the op has worked. It will be that or he’ll lose his place mid race, drift back, and that will be that! 

DANGERS… I decided I only wanted one onside in this… I took a long look at Border Breaker and if he won i’d be a tad annoyed. He was the only other one at the prices I was interested in. I thought he may enjoy this step up in trip, he’s been running well, won a point before his second LTO, jumps well and should race up there. I can see the case but I wasn’t sure even at his best whether he’d be good enough but this race has a strange feel about it. He’s interesting, but on back-class and connections, I’ve gone with the other one. 

I can’t have Shoal Bay at 4s – I really don’t get that at all. He ran OK LTO but only that, and he’s not doing much if anything different really. I’m sure Harry would have had the choice but who knows, maybe the owner wanted Junior on. This horse still doesn’t jump straight and I wanted to see more before wading in at this price. He is unexposed/young legs, which can count for plenty in a race like this but he can beat me at the price. I’m not sure how good he actually is and there’s a chance his hurdles rating wasn’t reflective of his ability, the capper having over-reacted to a novice win. Possibly. Anyway, he’s no value to my chase eyes but clearly given that profile he may win. 

Out For Justice- didn’t looked overpriced either. He’s been seeing out his races thanks to more patient tactics and I’m not backing a hold up chaser at that price – he’s up in class also, up in the weights again and while he’s been hacking up he’s been beating trees. He is progressive but again at 4s I can leave him. He could find this a step too far. 

I can leave Bramble Brook who i’m not sure actually stays having won a 3 runner race where the other two didn’t run well. In fact all his best form is in very small fields. I just can’t have him for a few reasons. Leaving both Tizzard chasers alone may prove foolish but I don’t like them at the prices. He does arrive in form and will appreciate this trip more, so I can see why he’d go well. But I couldn’t be tempted in at 6s. 

Old Pride and Delgany Demon are 11 and if the latter didn’t have Skelton next to his name would be 10s+ based on recent form for me. I’m not sure Good ground is what he wants either and I can leave him, if he beats me then fair play to connections. The former had it all go his way LTO and I suspect was fit enough, but he couldn’t get the job done in what was a poor enough race. He will race up there and did jump well LTO. He’s lightly raced for his age and wouldn’t be a shock winner but I can leave him. Were he younger with this profile, and 8s+, I’d have been more tempted. He’s an example of where the handicap system drives me mad with my owners hat on – he’s 11, got beat by a 112 horse LTO and they’ve put him up 5lb from that run. Why they can’t leave these types on the same mark for losing in a race like that i’ve no idea. 

Vendredi Trois is solid and maybe LTO was a blip, or he’s coming out of his form cycle. He places too much for me and looks high in the handicap, I think he needs his mark to come down and there should be better handicapped ones in here. 

I couldn’t have the rest for various reasons and if one of those takes this then so be it. 

It does have an open feel where any of the top 6/7 in the market winning wouldn’t shock you as such and hopefully I’ve landed on the right one. At the prices Border Breaker and Old Pride would be next in. Fingers crossed. 

*

*

Flat Test 2019 

None. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22, July TBC)

3.40 Thirsk – 

Mr Strutter – 1 point EW – 25/1 (BV – 1/5,5p) 20/1 (1/5,5p WH/PP/BF) 5th, +2.2

Ascot Dreamer – 1 point EW – 14/1 (1/5,5p SB/WH/BV/PP/BF) UP, -2 

7.40 Bath – Reggae Runner – 1.5 point WIN – 9/1 (BV/Coral) 17/2 (BetfS/PP) 8/1  WON 8.5/1 > 3/1 , +12.75 (any R4 TBC) 

1/3, 2p, +12.95 

that’s all, as of 08.11 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers 

2.50 Worc – Bramble Brook 

2.20 Worc – Ballycahane (16/1<) 

*

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<) 

4.20 Worc – Candy Burg

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

June Tipping Comp Winner

TBC / to follow

*

Results Updates 

Well it hasn’t been a great year to date and for those of you still here, thanks! 🙂 Much work to do…

Spreadsheet HERE>>>

I’ll start with a positive of sorts…

My Daily Tips

Since I had words with myself in late Feb and ‘went back to basics’,  focusing on 3m+ handicap chases, C4+ that daily pile is looking solid… as of 22nd Feb…

63 bets / 15 wins / 23 places (inc wins) / 24% win SR / 36% w|p / +39.8 points (advised) / 2019 total +23.8 

That’s not a shabby set of results for what is 16/17 weeks worth of tipping and with any luck it will continue ticking along albeit a 63% ROI may be hard to maintain. I have the time, the tools and the knowledge for that to be a 100+ point a year section and that’s what i’ll aim for. The free posts will continue to house the big Grade 3 staying chases (mainly the Nationals etc… they are 2/33,5p, +2, +15 BFSP in 2019). Still much work to do, but it’s heading in the right direction. 

*

Section 1 Strategies

Jumps S1 is still on holiday….

Jumps S3A#

  • June : 0/4,0p
  • 2019: 14/54, 27p… +6.325

Flat S6 

  • June: 4/23, 5p, +7.75 
  • 2019 : 5/52, 13p, +1.75 (+6 in July so far) 

Solid if unspectacular from those two so far this year, and the Jumps S1/S3A# , Flat S6 portfolio is waiting to burst into life but it is just about in profit and if a few more placed horses turn into winners, happy days. Those 3 could have a big second half to the year and sail through +100 points, albeit that seems some way off at the moment. 

Elsewhere… 

Well i’ll mention Jumps S3A (the Elite Squad…any section 1 jumps qualifier with an ES+ next to their name) which highlights those researched angles with at least 10 winners in the research period and a 25% win SR, historically. 

Thanks to a Peter Bowen double at Cartmel those are now looking very healthy…

  • June: 5/33, 11p, +25
  • 2019: 37/205, 70p, +55.6

*

Nick’s Tips

My figures for June: 63 bets / 4 wins / 22 places (inc wins) / -33.98 (advised/BOG) 

2019 P/L  end June: -31.79 (BOG) / -31.04 (advised/non bog) 

I won’t dwell on these figures for too long as there isn’t too much to say. Such runs/losses are within the ranges of what you’d expect given long term win SRs etc and in part I think the betting Gods are still punishing Nick for 2018, which was just silly. Clearly that’s not much consolation for this year so far but it’s always a game of fine margins, esp on the flat. May could have easily been a +30/40 point month with a tad more luck and there were a handful of agonising seconds in June also. That’s how it goes. The win/place SR last month was 35% and if that’s maintained, it will turn. Nick’s only a handful of winners away from being back into positive territory. Such results highlight the importance of betting banks and a bank of at least 100 points should be used for Nick, starting small and building up over time. Nick’s racing head is in a good place still and it’s just one of those runs you have to get through, that every person who bets on horses and/or tips will go through. They are a fact of betting on horses, esp when in the 8s+ range. 

*

In general it’s been the most turgid time with mediocre performance across the board just dragging on and on. For those of you still here your support is much appreciated. I’ve lost more members in recent months than I care to think about but if you’ve only been in these parts in more recent times, I can’t be surprised. While I try to add more to your racing experience than just a running profit/loss score, ultimately that’s where the long term judgement lies. I want to do some more in terms of structured knowledge sharing/ideas to help with your own analysis type content – more reports/videos/step by step/simplification etc – so that there’s more residual value outside of everything else above. I should probably send out a survey and see if a) there’s an interest for such content b) what sort of stuff you want. I suspect most of those that have abandoned ship is due to the above but there’s a chance that I could be offering more/or something different. I’m not sure. In any case hopefully in 6 months time the mood will feel very different, and the bank balances will look a bit healthier. 

*

 

 

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    W 4.20 – Milrow on 1st run @ 14
    Festival
    T 4.40 – Dark Defender on 2nd run @ 14

  2. Didn’t realise til last night that Betfred no longer offer bog. I’ve not used em much lately for gg’s anyway BUT they have also removed protection for any funds held in a a/c. YOU’D THINK THAT CHANGE IN T&C’S SHOULD HAVE HAD IT’S VERY OWN EMAIL WOULDN’T YOU!!

    1. According to Oddchecker they are shoing BOG now, i know from past experience they don’t offer BOG on the day before 08.30, they may have extended this to the night before.

      1. cheers Grundy, I’ll keep an eye on that as I may have been a few mins earlier with bet. won’t be using them other than golf and footy now anyway as I’ll be adding/taking funds as I bet now instead of leaving a betting balance.
        Makes you wonder why they no longer protect our money though. None of the other bookies I use have changed.

        while I’m at it I’ll tip my hat to Betdaq. They openly confess to using mpsnare in their t&c’s. Don’t like that they use it but fair enough if we know beforehand.

  3. 440 T Pennsylvannia Dutch
    5.40 T Fard ew

    Yankee
    2.10 T Spygate
    4.10 T Ghaziyah
    5.10 T Lexington Law
    5.40 T Inner Circle

    Mike

    1. Brilliant once again Mike, big cheesy smile and lots of profit!! Thanks once again for posting, keep up the great work!
      Best wishes, Tom.

  4. Got dragged into the 3.40 at Thirsk last night after being told about a runner Round the Island running again after being unlucky a few days ago. But was shocked to see Related in a class 6 i was sure that was running higher not too long ago. Anyways its dropped quite alot, back in blinkers and Tudhope booked was 8/1 last night thought that was interesting
    Dont wana be backing in class 6 flat races really but just something that caught the eye thought id share

    1. Spot on Ryan.

      I looked at this last night but passed it over for bigger priced ones.
      Went back after reading your post. Paid for the other losses and a wee bit more.

      Cheers.

    2. good shout Ryan, what with that and Nick’s grabbing 5th that turned out to be an ok race! Second run after wind op also – he’d had a few weeks off before that first run after op, LTO – they took blinkers off and in hindsight was clearly a blow the cobwebs/get him breathing sort of run on ground he probably didn’t like that much. Mark had fallen through the floor and Tudhope booked, which is usually a sign of intent if you can make a case for the horse.

  5. COLINS BETS
    3.10 Thirsk Biscuit Queen BOG 11/1
    3.30 Musselburgh Glengarry BOG 8/1
    3.30 Jacob Black BOG 6/1
    6.40 Bath Harry Hurricane BOG 7/2
    8.40 Bath Delirum BOG 11/1
    8.20 Kempton Directory BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.10 Thirsk Blyton Lass BOG 11/1
    Colin

  6. Class, had a look at today 6.40 Bath Powerful Dream, running in class 4 today and his record in class 4 HCs 4389867 now why should a 6yo suddenly improve to win todays race, having only won 3 races from 32 on turf, in lower class races, it could well win but doubt it.
    Colin.

    1. Well yea I doubt she’s going to improve, question is whether any of her runs, if repeated, could take this – and there are some – especially in the context that this is a confined handicap for horses yet to win in 2019 – so there’s either a few badly handicapped ones and/or a few rogues etc – or in general horses who find it hard to win. Add in the unique conditions – firm ground/Bath- and you have a recipe for a horse doing something it may not have done before. Also, this field have had a combined 60 runs in class 4s between them, 2 wins, none with wins at higher, in handicaps anyway, I don’t think. So it’s not exactly a strong class 4. Her run 2 starts back – she was going ok when hampered, game over. A few of those class 4 runs were when rated 72/75, this is lowest mark she’s run off in a C4 and the light weight may help.
      However, clearly if some of these 70/80 horses run up to their mark etc, she’s in trouble I suspect. Not a race i’d want to play in personally but top level 0/ X runs in class, outside of context of the race etc, is always dangerous/can be misleading.

      But yea in general for an exposed one, you’d side on them not being up to the level, but wouldn’t surprise me if she hit the places.

  7. Reply to James P. ..regarding class…apologies for not replying yesterday….appreciate your comments on variables and agree, that is why I factor in going and course differences over all distances and use racing post ratings for benchmark standard times…they indicate his fast or slow a race is run in relation to the standard course time for that distance….as all courses vary i.e 5f races can vary with yardage added so that a race described as 5f can be run over 5f. 20yds so convert all races to yes for accuracy….all going allowances are given a figure to deduct or add i.e good going I deduct .2sec per furlong, good to soft .3sec per furlong….and so on….I also calculate how far a horse has been beaten so the figures are not “just” based on speed and the overall figure is as accurate s I can make them….so, hopefully that answers your query..thanks for the input…

    1. Apologies for predictive txt errors…should read convert to yards.i.e 5f is 1100 yards etc (220yds to a furlong)

      1. Do yourself a favour Silver and switch the damn thing off! 🙂 🙂 I had to do an email for my partner the other day on her PC….. damned thing almost drove me mad. Surely it has to be quicker to just type it up yourself.

        1. Lol…do type myself on my mobile as out today but damn thing has a mind of its own sometimes and the odd one slips through but appreciate the advice!!

  8. Sorry for posting here regarding golf but if Colin or Martin have an opinion on the golf in Ireland this weekend would yourselves or anybody that has an opinion please share on the free post page if you fancy thank you

    1. thanks Aaron, i’m rather pleased with how I read that, thankfully Coleman is riding so well he got the pace/positioning spot on, handy but settled just off the pace. Those priced winners make all the difference come year end, hopefully find a few more along the way!

    1. haha – I think you’ll find he won that in a time which suggests he’s Kauto Star! 🙂 I jest. cheers, nice when those ones come off – close to as satisfying as it gets – wind op has clearly done the trick, and of course the yard being in better form helps.

    1. yep I can’t believe he went off that big and I dare not check his BFSP – in truth I think connections have never known which horse would show up on track, and also wind ops are tough as they won’t have killed him on the gallops to find out whether it has worked – until last 1/2 mile there they may not have known. Yard in much better form and fact he was well backed LTO was some indication I think. Pieces that together rather well on paper, reading between the lines. 8s was on boundary given questions but his case was in part made by weakness of oppo to my eyes, in context of their price. 2nd ran well as expected but younger/better handicapped legs have won the day.

    1. well, it’s taken a while for me to re-find my chasing mojo but starting to tick along well now and I’ll always back myself long term in those race types – just have to ensure my other tipping endeavours/test etc don’t neg impact that drive/enthusiasm etc – and clearly a part of my can’t give up trying to conquer the flat haha – but maybe I should!

    1. thanks Tony, just nice to cheer a biggie home, and always satisfying when the horse/connections have read the write up 🙂

    1. ha, yes, my words exactly when Coleman pressed go and he pulled away again to the line! The chase eyes working just fine, will try and keep it up.

  9. Very well read Josh, did not follow you in as you can’t back all tips, but extremely incisive analysis, well done.

    1. Cheers Mark. Ah that is a annoying. But yea you either follow someone systematically or you dip in and out etc and use own judgement also which many find more enjoyable. I mean if any of my tipping output should be followed evidence would suggest its the daily tips. That’s taken them to +53 or so since 21st Feb when I switched to just focusing on the 3m+ chases for daily tips. They are quite a stress free set to follow given number of bets esp this time of year but each to their own. Still much work to do on that front from me but I’ll try and keep that profit pile climbing.

  10. Great selection today Josh, you cant keep a good man down……well not for too long anyway!! RTP is rockin, all thanks to you, well done!
    Best wishes, Tom.

    1. ha cheers Tom… my 3m chasing eyes have been working just fine since Feb – well probably better than they ever have done, which they should given over time i’d like to think my racing brain gradually improves. My tipping head in a better place now on that front. No excuse for not making that section a 80/100+, 30% ROI + part of the content. When Nick starts flying then the phoenix will soar again, just shows you – one day and a quite a haul – couple more of those and that’s how quickly it can turn.

    1. What rule 4 did you get William, I didn’t get one with bet365? Placed bet 8.12 and got nothing. You get 5p or something?

    1. haha, friendly competition is very healthy in these parts! A solid +26 points or so for today’s tipping content – hopefully that lifts the mood! A few more of those and life will be grand. 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.