Free Daily Post: 02/07/19 (complete)

Flat test poke…

Below is a test poke on the flat from my Members’ post. I’m a jumps punter at heart, esp when it comes to ”tipping’ but have been trying to dabble on the flat using my stats content as a way in. I’ve been threatening lift off… 8/41,19p, -0.5… and with any luck today’s can get me back into the black…

Flat Test 2019 

5.45 Hamilton – Dancing Mountain – 1 point win – 3/1 

I’m minded to have a blanket ban on class 6 handicaps and maybe I’ll be wishing I had after this race! This 3 year old arrives in decent form, as does his trainer (and trainer/jockey, 5/15,8p in the last 14 days) and he runs as if he will relish this hill- it’s probably what he needs over 5f as he was a 6f winner as a two year old. He’s looking well handicapped now and the horse in front of him LTO won on his next start off 66. He may prefer this quicker ground and the drop back into a C6, all age handicap, with the allowance. I also wondered whether Curtis may be ultra aggressive from his high draw up against the nearside rail, or in any case try and hold it with a prominent ride. He could make all here in Dapper Man style. This race is weak and he looks the most interesting one by far. There’s a chance he makes 3s look big, so I’ll roll the class 6 dice to find out. 



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3 Responses

    1. June a very poor month: 13 wins from 111 bets inc 11 x nr’s,
      bog = -14.75
      sp = – 34.5
      bfsp = – 29.51 (net)

      16 x 2nds with odds up to 25’s so not too despondent.

    3M OPEN
    Unable to see past the first two in the betting market so here goes

    Brooks Koepka 2 point Win 8/1 BF, SB, Marathon

    Jason Day 2 point Win 11/1 BF, SB, LA, WH, PP

    Last week Brandt Snedeker Tied 5th of 10 places so we have a reduced payout, mind you after the first two round did not expect such an high finish.
    No more bets

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