Members Daily Post: 02/07/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Brighton 

2.00 –

Avorisk Et Perils (3yo+, +m TJC) 14  G3 18/1 

Hedging (m class) H3 4/1 

3.30 – 

Sussex Girl (all hncps/4yo+) 11/2 

Altaira (m age) 14 H3 I3 8/1 

5.00 – Essaka (m age) 14 H3 I3 G3  11/4  S4

 

Hamilton

4.15 –

Club Wexford (all hncps) w2 10/1 

Brother McGonagall (all hncps) w2 ES+ 16/1 S3A

Mikmak (all hncps) ES+ G3 13/2 S3A

Never Be Enough (m runs) w1 H3 4/1 

4.45 –

Qawamees (all hncps 5 yrs) H3 I3 10/3 

Corton Lad (m runs) I3 10/1 

5.15 – Howzer Black (m runs) w2 H3 I3 G3 9/4 S4

5.45 – 

Dancing Mountain (all hncps) H3 I1 G3 3/1 S4

Raquelle (all hncps) ES+  I3 G3 6/1 S3A#

Gunnabedun (m runs)  16/1 

 

Chepstow

6.00 – Masquerade Bling (all hncps) 12/1 

8.00 – Akavit (all hncps) ES+ 7/1 S3A

*

JUMPS

Stratford 

7.15 – Regulation (all hncps) w2 I3 13/2 

 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 14/75, 24p +24.9)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/41,19p, -0.5)

Daily Tips 

None, no chases of choice. 

*

Flat Test 2019 

5.45 Hamilton – Dancing Mountain – 1 point win – 3/1  UP 11/4, lost that at the start sadly, fly leapt gates, game over in a sprint, albeit the effort after that was a tad uninspiring. 

I’m minded to have a blanket ban on class 6 handicaps and maybe I’ll be wishing I had after this race! This 3 year old arrives in decent form, as does his trainer (and trainer/jockey, 5/15,8p in the last 14 days) and he runs as if he will relish this hill- it’s probably what he needs over 5f as he was a 6f winner as a two year old. He’s looking well handicapped now and the horse in front of him LTO won on his next start off 66. He may prefer this quicker ground and the drop back into a C6, all age handicap, with the allowance. I also wondered whether Curtis may be ultra aggressive from his high draw up against the nearside rail, or in any case try and hold it with a prominent ride. He could make all here in Dapper Man style. This race is weak and he looks the most interesting one by far. There’s a chance he makes 3s look big, so I’ll roll the class 6 dice to find out. 

*

Regal Mirage was a tad poor yesterday having tried to lead. To my eye I thought they were going an ok pace, but possible he did too much. Maybe he does have to be delivered through horses and/or is just one paced over that trip. Still, his mark may come down again, up in trip, Allan back on, and he may open at an ok price NTO. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22, July TBC)

5.00 Brighton – All Back To Mine – 1.5 point win – 6/1 (WH/BV) 11/2 (gen) UP, -1.5 

that’s all for today, 08.15 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

7.45 Strat – Lady Markby (14/1< guide) 

8.45 Strat – Nomountainhienough (11/1< guide) 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Report… (old) Posted as a reminder… a report from a few weeks back looking at some trainers/jockeys to keep an eye on during the summer months over fences... READ HERE>>> (found in research link in Key above in section 1) 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Off on holiday to Normandy for a few days to view the D Day beaches, but bookending the trip with contrasting racing experiences. We end on Sunday with a Group 1 at Deauville, but start tomorrow at Brighton (my first ever visit) with what looks like one of the worst cards possible. I think that there are 5 Class 6 handicaps!! All help gratefully received. I notice that Blessed To Empress is running in the first and whilst I appreciate that Josh may no longer have the inside info any views on the race would be welcome.

    My thoughts for what they are worth are:
    Kachumba 2.30
    Damon Runyan 3.30
    Sonnetina 4.30
    Pink Flamingo 5.00

    Cheers
    Steve

    steved 02/07/19 12:15 AM Reply


    • Enjoy your trip Steve,
      Blessed will be there to run her race as always, esp as I think this is her last season racing I suspect – and one of our gang still has a % in her as he wanted to see it through to end of this season, and I think he’s off there racing today. Blessed normally tells you when she needs a bit of quiet time so she’d have been freshened up after LTO which is something Amy does very well, esp with the fillies. If you’re paddock side you’ll be able to tell from her behaviour if she’s likely to run her race! Whether she does is often to do with her mood.
      She’ll appreciate the 7lb off but she can take some knowing, maybe young Fallon will have the magic touch. She only won two starts back thanks to an inspired SDS imo, and it was a poor race- weaker than this one I think. But she’ll race up there in the right spot, and a big run wouldn’t surprise me.

      Really Super is back out on track this Sunday at Market Rasen. I can’t make it which is annoying but i’ll update later in the week on here. We are throwing her into a deep enough race, 0-145 C2, but will see how many line up.

      Josh 02/07/19 8:55 AM Reply


      • Cheers Josh – what are the signs to look for in the paddock

        steved 02/07/19 9:49 AM Reply


        • Well it’s not an exact science haha. She can get agitated, maybe throwing head around, and can have a devilish look in her eye sometimes… It’s a fine balance with her. You want then ready for racing but without over doing it. With any luck she’s relaxed but taking a bit of a grip as she circles and her coat will be gleaming. If she goes down to start without issues then would suggest she’s ready mentally. Given the days rest suspect she will be spot on.
          A few starts back I could tell she just wouldn’t run well, upset and was poor at the stalls, took some getting in, cajoling and was a bit mulish down to start, stopping at times, jockey kicking irons out. 6s is fair but her attitude usually gets her very far but looks a few who try also. But she mau handle the ground better than most and certainly handles the track.

          Josh 02/07/19 12:09 PM Reply


          • Very well behaved Josh – going to risk a tenner

            steved 02/07/19 1:51 PM Reply


            • i’d go EW given got 3 places… best of luck 🙂 , i’d best have an interest EW tickle now, always heart over head first with her but she should be thereabouts.

              Josh 02/07/19 1:53 PM Reply


            • Still well behaved – bloke collapsed in the bar. Eventful start!

              steved 02/07/19 2:02 PM Reply


            • she’s looking good from the pics I can see, coat looked good. Best of luck!

              Josh 02/07/19 2:02 PM Reply


              • hmm, well the first part of the race went well, then she seemed to not want to know when asked for her effort. that’s her sadly! Hopefully your punting day improves 🙂

                Josh 02/07/19 2:15 PM Reply


                • Sadly it didn’t improve much, but a good day out with some mates – didn’t lose much. Main thing is that apparently the bloke who collapsed was sitting up in his hospital bed. Wasn’t looking good when there was an ambulance, a paramedic car and a critical care car in attendance.

                  steved 02/07/19 5:41 PM Reply


    • Enjoy your trip and Brighton. It is a nice course to visit if the sea fret does not come in off the channel. It always reminded me of my South London childhood but perhaps the characters there have changed?

      I too like Kachumba. I also picked out Clive Clifton in the 3.30.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 02/07/19 11:49 AM Reply


      • Cheers

        I’ll keep an eye out for Pinky!!

        steved 02/07/19 12:55 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 2.30 – Kachumba on 4th run @ 3
    S 8.15 – Boutan on 6th run @ 28

    Titus 02/07/19 8:04 AM Reply


  • 3 /4 in the Yankee yesterday. Not so confident with this one.

    2.15 H Sir Havelock
    8.30 C Sea Art
    7.15 S Regulation
    4.00 B Circle of Stars

    Mike

    mickeydee 02/07/19 8:13 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Hamilton
    4.15 Never Be Enough BOG 4/1
    4.45 Qawamees BOG 7/2
    Brighton
    4.30 Princess Florence BOG 11/2
    5.00 Big Lachie BOG 11/4
    Chepstow
    8.00 Akavit BOG 7/1
    ELITE BETS
    8.30 Chepstow Robert Fitzroy BOG 9/1
    Colin

    cleafe 02/07/19 10:06 AM Reply


  • 8.0 Chepstow. Bernard Llewellyn has twice had runners in this race and both times had the 1-2. Each time the lesser fancied horse won. Today he runs Artie Campbell 18-1 and Norab 7-1. I’ll be backing both and the rev fc.

    Andy Nicholls 02/07/19 10:13 AM Reply


  • Lambourn
    Ed Walker hopefully everything goes to plan, i will add she drops in class.
    2.30 Brighton My Lady Clare 18/1 LA, 888 Gen 16/1
    Colin

    cleafe 02/07/19 11:01 AM Reply


    • Managed 2nd well backed down to 8/1, beaten 6 lengths by a very poor animal next class 7 then possible a trip across the channel, how do you like your stake!
      Positive it is still a 3yo and it could still improve, sadly many owners and trainers often believe their horses are better than they are.
      Today has not answered the question is class 6 the right class for her, although it was her 6th race and it is the only time that she has been placed.
      Once again Ed Walker was spot on with his view today, and anyone taking the 18/1 certainly had value.
      Colin

      cleafe 02/07/19 2:59 PM Reply


  • Thoughts on Class:

    After the defeat of Anthony Van Dyke in the Irish Derby at the Curragh just decided to compare a GI performance with a C5 hcp and there is surprisingly little in the figures given that the former, in theory should be well above average for the distance…my average standard times and mph for 12 furlongs are 151.27 secs and a speed of 35.69. mph, which roughly equates with a Class 4 race at the 12 f distance…below this you get C5 and C6 and C7 runners…above this average bench mark you get above average runners of whatever the class.

    Sovereign, when beating AVD in the Irish Derby at the Curragh, ran 12f in 149.1 secs at 36.21 mph——- being 2.17 secs and 0.52 mph above average.

    AVD when winning the Epsom Derby ran 12.07 f in 151.337 secs at 35.74 mph, which , when we factor in the .07 furlong extra distance run is about average for that distance…so in terms of Class we can say that the Epsom Derby was won by a C4 horse even though the classification was a Group 1.

    In comparison Cherry Cola running in a C6 hdcp at Windsor recently on 3rd June this year ran 11.45 furlongs in a time of 145.76 seconds at 35.31 mph…..for a direct comparison with AVD’s Epsom Derby run Cherry Cola would have run the Derby in 156.76 secs and clocked 34.50 mph, which is clearly below the standard achieved by AVD but to say the latter is a G1 horse does put a question mark over the standard of the Epsom Derby and the horses that ran in that event.

    Sovereign was hampered at the start of the Epsom Derby and did not recover to put in a challenge that day but previously over 10f in a Derby trial was described as running on in defeat….of the horses to take out the Epsom Derby going forward this may be the horse to watch and see if the O’Brien stable enters this horse in high class races in the future.

    silver 02/07/19 11:35 AM Reply


    • I think that Anthony van Dyke is a stayer and so does not have a significant turn of pace. As you say we need to see the winners next run to know how good he is? He was not entered up that highly before the race but perhaps he just surprised them all.

      martin colwell 02/07/19 11:46 AM Reply


      • Problem is trying to predict a horses improvement and progression so thought that Sovereign was worth watching as the horse beat AVD so comprehensively and then started wondering about the actual quality of the Epsom Derby itself and was a bit surprised to come up with the figures I did…had to double check them and made me doubt the quality of the race itself when I found that AVD ran at only a C4 level…makes me wonder about race classifications in the future.

        silver 02/07/19 12:23 PM Reply


        • I mean he obviously didn’t run at Class 4 level or isn’t a class 4 horse?? Does that mean official ratings are irrelevant?? I’m most confused haha. The 118 horse ran to same level as a an 85 rated horse? and if running off level weights, the Derby winner ran to the level of the former? Come on.

          According to HRB the Derby winning time was 2m 33.38 seconds.

          The race straight after was a class 2 handicap ran over same distance. That was run in 2m 34.55 s, slower as you’d expect. Surely that’s the useful comparison on the day?

          I’ve dug out the last 3 1m4f races run at Epsom on Good to Firm, Class 4… and their times… 2m 39.91 s, 2m 37.45, 2m 38.5 s.

          I don’t get this comparison with a C4 time?

          These standard times… are they based on the average of truly run races? Take account of field size? Or all of them, which will include plenty of dawdles / sprints/ small fields etc as happened in Irish Derby?

          The Derby has worked out ok without looking vintage, I mean Japan and Circus have franked it to some extent.

          I’m clearly still confused with some of these timings approaches esp when looking at the ratings of the horses concerned. I don’t fully understand standard times/speed, without ever looking at sectionals and how a race was run – and the finishing speed of the race- that’s one of most important elements for me.

          The analysis of the Irish Derby indicates that the winner went very very slow through the main part of race, the horses in behind got shockers, and he covered the final couple of furlongs in a sprint, having saved up so much energy. (the finishing speed was so so much quicker than the race average) The Derby was run completely different, different pace, etc etc – making any comparison of the two a bit pointless in my view. Clearly those in behind were disadvantaged at the Curragh and the pilots got it wrong, Hayes looking at Moore and vice versa, not realising they had given the leader too much rope. A sprint clearly didn’t suit the Derby winner, and he may have underperformed also.

          I do not know on what planet we sit here and say the Derby was the equivalent of a class 4! I’m a bit lost for words.

          Josh 02/07/19 1:19 PM Reply


          • I am as surprised and probably confused as yourself but the clock does not lie, that is why I double checked the figures I have and by which I calculate races regardless of class and ratings…..I compiled my standard times for an average run over distances from 5f to 16f using modins’s model on speed figures but calculate mine based on .167 secs per furlong as opposed to .20 secs per furlong as most of the speed figure compilers do including Beyer and class does not enter into the equation or RPR or Ofifcial Ratings of races as they are currently classified as the Racing post etc uses lbs per length etc and weight is not a consideration except in relation to to horses last winning weight and when it reaches a ceiling in regards to wins off a particular weight so on my caclulations I was surprised as you are to equate the Derby winner with a Class 4 speed over that distance….The fact that Sovereign ran above average in relation to the way I calculate races and beat AVP so comprehensively calls into question the Epsom Derby form being classed as a G!..it is more akin to C4 form according to the way I look at races…that is all I am saying and the win of Sovereign would seem to bear this out.

            silver 02/07/19 1:33 PM Reply


            • fair enough – I still find that strange – I can’t have the Derby being run in a class 4 standard, I can’t have that at all, esp with how the form has been franked – and the comparison with class 4 times at the track/distance, and indeed the class 2.
              So the class 2 straight after was in fact a class 5 time or something??

              I’ll just have to accept to be confused/perplexed but your methods and how you’ve come to that conclusion haha – it was run 4-5 seconds quicker than the 3 most recent Class 4 equivalents at the track – that’s a lot of lengths.
              That all just makes me question how useful such an approach is. I’m just lost for words and can’t have that analysis at all as being anyway accurate or useful, not to my eyes . I just don’t understand it. but there we go, moving on, i’m clearly never destined to look at that race in the same way as you. If you plucked 5 in form class 4 horses and put them in the Derby they would probably still be running. The glorious game of interpretation! 🙂

              Josh 02/07/19 1:50 PM Reply


            • The confusion arise I think in terms of what the industry uses as classification of races…your reference to the times of C2 races being run in the times which are worse than the Derby and in terms of the way the industry classifies race is correct…they are below the Epsom form…… but the way I look at races my figures are based on averages for the distances mentioned and does not equate with the standard classification of races as used by the BHA…I use my own standard…the average I use is equivalent to the industry C4 classification….in terms of the Industry classification it may well be a G1 but according to the standards I have worked out it is the equivalent of a C4 race as the time and speed for the distance is just average…I classify anything that is above or below the standard I use as being above or below C4 standard in order to equate with the industry standard….hope that clarifies things in that regard….G1 according to industry way of looking at races and C4 according to the way I look at races as the time of the Epsom run of AVP, according to my way of calculating is just average, therefore, in my standard figures, just average.

              silver 02/07/19 2:04 PM Reply


              • Pace / going – you need more variables in your calculations you can’t just go by the clock. AVD won the derby off the pace, so wasn’t dictating the pace and therefore the clock

                James P 02/07/19 10:35 PM Reply


  • seems to be a bit of a punt on Lady Markby Stratford 7-45 in to 12’s , hope it’s a good sign got matched on BF @ 60’s

    Martin Whittle 02/07/19 11:55 AM Reply


Post A Reply