Members Daily Post: 30/06/19 (complete)

flat test x1, Daily Tips x2, Nick’s tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Cartmel

2.35 – Wells De Lune   (all Hc’s,HcH)  ES+ 14/1 S3A WON 14/1 

3.05 – Ruperra Tom   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ 8/1 S3A

3.40 –

My Renaissance   (all Hc’s)  11/1 

Fateh   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 2/1 S3A

4.15 – Play The Ace   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 16/1 S2A S3A 

4.50 –

Secret Escape   (micro dist)  w1 H3 7/1 

Dr Robin   (All Hc’s,HcH)  ES+ 20/1 S2A S3A WON 20/1 

5.25 – Judge Earle   (all Hc’s,HcH)  w1  ES+ H3 10/11 S3A 

 

Uttoxeter

3.30 – Theatrebar   (HcH,m TJC)  w1  ES+ H1 I1 7/2 S3A# 2nd 

4.05 –

Notwhatiam   (m TJC)  ES+ 11/1 S3A

Theclockisticking   (m age) H3 I3 7/2 

Blairs Cove   (m age)  w2  ES+  I3 14/1 S3A

4.40 – Champagne To Tara   (m dist) H3 I3 5/2 

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FLAT

Windsor

4.25 – Pytilia    (m age) H3 15/2 

5.00 – C’Est No Mour   (All Hc’s) H3 I3 3/1 

5.35 – Perfect Refuge   (m TJC) 9/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/74, 23p +20.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 8/39,19p, +1.5)

 

Daily Tips

4.05 Uttox –

Brave Eagle – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/BV) 6/1 (gen) WON 5.4/1

Monbeg Legend – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/Lad/BV) 14s (others)  UP

that’s all for today as of 10.33, write up below…

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Flat Test 2019

4.25 Windsor – Pytilia – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH/BV/Unib) 17/2 (others)  UP

that’s all for the test as of 10.44, write up below…

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Write ups…

4.05…

Brave Eagle – I thought 6s+ was more than fair for this one and on the strength of his form should be shorter. I’d like to think the 50 day break is because this has been the plan, rather than a hold up- not many races like this to go for at this time of year. He’s generally very consistent, is progressive, bolted up LTO over a trip too short, the yard are red hot, Nico has picked him, he can carry weight, and looks sure to relish this trip given how he runs/finishes off his races. His RPRs are eye popping compared to most in here, he’s clear top HRB ratings, and I actually thought he was the one to beat. 

Monbeg Legend – well I couldn’t leave him at 16s given I think he wants this trip, or certainly 3m+, and it could bring about plenty of improvement. He did fall LTO and whether that’s left a mark we’re about to find out – it was built into his price. IT was a strange error, never really picking up his legs. It wasn’t too heavy but may affect him mentally. His return run at Ayr was decent enough, as was his novice chase form last October. He was outpaced in all three of those runs. His best chase performance came at Stratford over 23f. He’s lightly raced for his age and i’d like to think Henderson means business in this race this year. 

Pace wise… well Monbeg should be up there and Nico may not be far away. This trip may allow him to race comfortably just behind the pace setters. There’s a few who can get on with it, so we shall see how it settles down. I’d be surprised/annoyed if my two were near the back through this. 

Dangers… i’m not sure where to start! It’s competitive stuff. I landed on the winner at 12s two years ago, nowhere near last years winner. I thought the fav was too short – they keep riding him patiently and he does make the odd error. He may well have won LTO but for a bad enough error a few fences from home LTO. He probably lost at least 6L at the fence and then was patiently ridden back into it. He wasn’t stopping come the line. But in this big field that’s the risk at his price and he’s had 57 days off which isn’t ideal for me. But maybe this has been the plan. He has the ability to win this and stays. But he seems short and worth taking on. 

If one of the 10/11 year olds takes this then so be it. That isn’t an age range I want to focus on that often in these big C1/C2 handicap chases, even in the summer. I’ll mention Van Gogh Du Granit who owes me nothing after the Market Rasen romp – he’s creeping up in the weights and I wasn’t sure he’d see this out as strong as some. I wasn’t sure why he’d improve on that Perth run and he will need to here. This could be deep enough and is the toughest run of his UK life to date. But – he is clearly well, generally jumps, and does stay 3m fine – he’s in great form, and that could be enough esp if a few fluff their lines. He won’t mind the ground etc. Maybe i’ve got him wrong, but he could be thereabouts. 

I’ll mention NotwhatIam – maybe Skelton does take this, I wasn’t fully convinced, going from small field novice races into a big field race like this. I’m just not convinced about him over fences as yet. He can be buzzy and he’s tied up late the last twice over shorter and all his form for Skelton is in small fields, which can always be a tad deceptive. I could have him very wrong but he needs more and I wasn’t sure this mark was a gift either. But it is team Skelton. 

Dragon Destruval – he’s the one in the race that would annoy me if he wins – I stared and stared at him, and was narrowing in on the 3 Henderson horses. He does have ground and stamina to prove, but they are in the unknown category. I was hovering at around 10s. There’s a chance he needed the run LTO as he did hit the front 2 out. Albeit there’s also a chance he was fit and he didn’t get home. I can picture Jacob stalking through and looking ominous – he’s unexposed for the team over fences in the UK. Maybe this has been the plan also. He stayed 2m6f well in France in soft, albeit again hard to know what that indicates and his breeding wouldn’t scream stayer. On the figures his effort LTO was the best in the UK so far but quite some way. I was a tad torn, but went for the two who I thought would definitely enjoy the ground and will stay. 

Micro.. Dragon’s sire… Enrique… has a fine record with his chasers in the last two years… 12/46, 16p, +28 SP. And Henderson does well with horses on 1st/2nd start after a wind op. 

He’s one of the more interesting ones for sure, i’ll see if I’ve got him horrible wrong! 

There’s a chance of course that I haven’t mentioned the winner which would be irritating but there we go. 

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Pytilia – a flat test poke here who I thought looked too big. There are a few 3 year olds in this, maybe too many for comfort, but I thought plenty of those had questions. This horse should have won LTO but the jockey got it all wrong. She was keen the race before when they rushed her up to make all, fading in the latter part of the race. So, they rode her cold next time, but just a bit too cold, never quite getting to the make all winner. Still, it was a run which suggested she’s still well handicapped and she’s unexposed on turf. Her run at Newmarket last season suggested that turf is fine. Good to Firm is a question but she’s only run on it once and may have been outstayed more than anything. She’s tactically versatile and I thought interesting enough here. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

4.05 Uttox – 

Brave Eagle – 1 point EW – 6/1 (gen)  WON 5.4/1 , +6.75

Van Gogh Du Granit – 1 point EW – 16/1 (gen)  UP, 4th 

4.15 Cart – Double Treasure – 1 point EW – 16/1 (bet365/BV) 14/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for today from Nick as of 10.04 

1/3, 1p , +2.75 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.05 Uttox – Red Giant / Henllan Harri 

4.40 Uttox – Mcgroaty 

LTO Winning trainers

5.25 Cart – Judge Earle 

Henry Brooke (25/1<) 

3.05 Cart – Al Co 

LTO Winning Hurdlers 

4.50 Cart – Melody Of Scotland / Too Much To Ask 

5.25 Cart – Judge Earle 

2.25 Uttox – Chef De Troupe 

 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points 

3.05 Cart – The Jam Man 

3.40 Cart – Ringaringarosie 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.00 – See The Sea on 3rd run @ 9/2
    C 2.35 – John Constable on 8th run @ 15/2
    C 4.50 – Oakley Hall on 3rd run @ 25
    C 5.25 – Morning Royalty on 7th run @ 8
    Festival/BRT
    U 4.05 – Theclockisticking on 2nd run @ 7/2
    W 4.25 – Zoraya on 8th run @ 14
    3m+
    U 4.05 – Regal Encore on 5th run @ 14
    …………Henllan Harri on 4th run @ 20

  2. Morning,

    Well at long last a chase to get our teeth into, albeit a very muddling one…Love that!
    16:05 UTTOXETER
    NOTWHATIAM 9/1 gen 1pt win
    This one is a very typical Skelton horse, back and forth over different trips/going/fence types, runs forever and has won twice at the course, albeit in hurdles races. Should front run and has pace, can jump strongly also, the only chink in his armour is that he is very flat footed and does get caught by the odd one on the run in, but, that is in built in the price and the fact the Skeltons have a 43% record when joining forces here!
    GENTLEMAN JOHN 33/1 gen 1pt win
    Now maybe this old boy has had his day in the sun, but, when messers Cobden and Tizzard join forces you have to look twice at why that is so? In this ones case, he needs to be wrapped up in cotton wool till you get him to a racecourse, but, if you get him there he can put in some wonderful performances.He is lightly raced considering he is an 11 year old.(front rank also should help)
    The key i believe is Mr Cobden, who can switch horses off and bring them quietly into races, he will need that, but, should be staying on when all others have cried foul. The price is really good value and I wouldn`t put you off backing each way, but, I`ll have it on the nose and will take it on the chin if he fails!

    I hope MAHLERMADE doesn`t win, he was the other one i was considering here, but, narrowed it down to the above two. With Mr King winning the Pitmens Derby yesterday, he obviously has his string in good fettle, he is another one who can get tapped for toe and the front runners in this are numerous and may tire each other out, it will be a true test today and you will see a decent horse win, just hope it is one of my two above. I believe front rank will be key to winning this….

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

    1. Just a quick one on Bryony Frost, punters, as we thought seem to latch onto her these days and the bookies are wary. She is still riding with so much gusto and enthusiasm, I for one am looking forward to her challenging for top jock status if not over the next two seasons, certainly in the next five. Her horse today is a classic example. Winter Lion, not really done a great deal, transferred yards, ran on the flat, if anyone can get these “quirky” sorts going it`s her! He may just “Bottom” out, but, if she can get this one going he may be “well in!”…It is a fascinating race today and one I have really enjoyed getting my teeth into!!

  3. Monbeg Legend in the 4.05 Uttoxeter is a runner from Ben Aitken’s Summer Stunners.
    Not proven at Class 1 but that is reflected in the current price of 16/1.

  4. Nothing of interest for me today at all so decided to take the day off and spend the afternoon at the local classic car show. Entered my own last year but not had time this past few weeks to spend on it, so just gonna go as a casual punter and critique everyone else’s. 😉

  5. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.40 Cartmel Oliver’s Gold BOG 7/2
    5.15 Uttoxeter Hattaab BOG 11/2
    5.35 Windsor Dashing Poet BOG 8/1
    No other bets
    Colin

  6. Just for a bit of fun have done combination trebles and doubles (12 trebles and 36 doubles) incorporating 3.50 Windsor. 3.25 St Cloud. 4.35. St. Cloud for 0.03p stakes totalling £1.44p .

    Selections:
    3.50 Windsor Vasiliev/Al Battor
    3.25. St. Cloud Mehdaayih/Sakura Zensen/High Ball
    4.35. St.Cloud Flop Shot/Montviette

    Horses chosen in my usual manner so nothing new there but part of experimenting with multiple bets for small stakes to see if there is an angle that can be exploited…not sure who mentioned on here about multiple bets being profitable by professional punters as a way forwards so will not change the way I select horses but thought that this may prove to be ok as a means of generating profit for small outlays…anyway on a slow day thought it worth a shot…

    1. I have said on here a few times that multiples are a key part of my betting on horse racing. To keep my figures up each year i rely on 3 or 4 coming in each year to make me £20K. The grind of single bets alone will not get me to where I need to be and so I stick in multiples along the way. I can get on with a few bookies online but it mostly requires a trip into town to betting shops to slip the muggy multiple bet passed the cashier. With seven bookies in Maidstone town centre I am well placed to spread the bets around. I did get barred from Corals when I won £8K but after a while they forgot and let me back as ‘a valued customer’ in their words.

      1. Many thanks Martin, apologies for not remembering but the old grey matter not what it used to be…interesting stuff unfortunately where I am located no bookies at all, have to get a boat or plane so have to use the internet so limited that way but interesting to know it is a fundamental part of your betting t generate profit…thanks again.

      2. If you don’t mind me asking martin what type of multiples do you do and how do you decide what to include in them? Do you do them daily?

        1. I have a go two or three times a week and do singles the rest of the time. I have Sundays off. If the odds are 5/1, when I put them on, or more I do a £10 win Yankee or £5 win Canadian, splitting the bets across two bookies. I always have a go on Saturdays when there are more price enhancements.
          If the odds are under 5/1 I skip the doubles and do the trebles and bigger at £20 stakes. So not big money but if they hit they pay £5K plus, sometimes £10K plus.
          In some bookmakers they get checked and some they dont. I have done some online on Bet365 and Coral, but on others I get restricted.

    1. Well I think you’re being harsh on yourself there. You read the 3rd at the price a fair but better than I did! Albeit that 4th here in a good race stood out, the prep put me off a tad, wanted to see a tad more but I suppose a 26f chaser isn’t doing much on flat over 16<. He's got an OK race in him for connections you'd think, over the summer. Bryony superb again. And I wasnt that close to the second. I suppose a bit perturbed by his c5 hunter chase prep. On his Irish form /Mark he was entitled to go ok. I was a but put off by jockeys stats also. Brave was one of those on the borderline price wise but in the end I thought his class may just see him through. He ticked nearly every box bar being a lone front runner. I've got plenty wrong around that price but happily got one right today.

      1. I thought as you did the favourite was awful, would have laid that all day long, he has a race in him, but, does clout the odd fence. I think the fact they missed the open ditch has helped a few, Killaro Boy being one of them.

        1. yea for sure. Takes more energy to close on flat with fewer jumps i think ,well the jumps slow them down etc and obviously put a premium on the good jumpers when tiring.
          Yep, he stays well also , if he was mine i’d try being far more aggressive with him now and giving him a clear sight of his fences, maybe with some headgear on. He does just look a galloper.

  7. When the Josh and Nick stars align, you would be malign, to ignore all that they say, and have a no bet day. Good job I double betted then 🙂

    Thanks chaps

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