Members Daily Post: 27/06/19 (complete)

Flat Test Tips x4 (+write up), Nick’s tips x2, Section 1 (x1), review

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Newmarket

2.45 – French Riviera   (all Hc’s) 14/1

4.25 – Taurean Star   (all Hc’s) 22/1

 

Nottingham   

2.35 –

Militia   (all Hc’s,m age)  ES+ 16/1 S3AUP

Case key   (3yo+,m age) 22/1

Miracle Garden   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 I3 11/2 UP

5.20 – Jawshan   (all Hc’s,m age) 14/1

 

Hamilton

6.05 – Duke of Yorkshire   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+ 5/1 S3A

8.05 –

Never Be Enough   (m runs) H3 I3 10/3 

Ladies First   (all Hc’s) H3 G3 9/2

Grey Berry   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 28/1 

8.35 –

Bossipop   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 8/1 S3A

Dapper Man   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I3 G1 7/2 S1 S4

9.05 –

Mujassam   (m class and runs)  w1  w2 H1 I3 G3 11/4 S4

Autumn Flight   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+ 15/2 S3A

 

Leicester

7.55 – Diviner   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 10/1 S3A

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/74, 23p +20.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 7/38,17p, +0.5)

 

Daily Tips

None, no chases of choice.

review of yesterday’s race below in section 4…

 

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Flat Test 2019

All 1 point win…

2.35 Notts – Miracle Garden – 13/2 (gen) UP 16/1, drift told the story it seems, didn’t run any sort of race at all.

6.05 Ham – Duke Of Yorkshire – 5/1 (gen) 3rd 7/1, hmm, far too keen on front end maybe did too much, plugged on.

8.05 Ham – Ladies First – 9/2 (bet365/UniB) 4/1 (gen)

8.35 Ham – Dapper Man – 4/1 (gen)

write ups on their way, 08.59…

I’ve gone mob handed today and 4 is certainly the max amount in any day and i’ve used my new section one shortlisting approach.. any horse with an H1/H3, G1, I1 and ES+, generally but not exclusively on those 10|12/1<, and avoiding those races packed with 3 year olds (such as the 7.55 Leic which I didn’t even bother looking at given how many unexposed ones in the race)…

Miracle Garden… well he’s in form at least having won fairly well at Bath LTO. He didn’t get the best trip, stuck wide, but was on top near the end in a race which has some substance… the second won NTO as did the 4th, and they were rated 71 and 79 when beating them there. Williams returns to a track where he has a great record… 10/31,16p in the last year, +18, 5/21,7p in C4 handicaps here in the last 5 years. He’s also booked a top jockey which is a sign of intent. I think McEvoy is from New Zealand and plies his trade in Aus, here for the summer again. He’s one of the top men over there and ‘The mad professor’ was signing his praises on RTV a couple of days back as he rides so many more winners than he should do over here, based on starting price. He used to ride plenty over here a few years back, didn’t come over much 2015/17 (10 rides total) but seems to be here for a longer stint – maybe due to Buick being out and his Godolphin links. In any case he’s 5/23,9p in the last 14 days and he’d have claims to be the best jockey in this race. Wide draws do fine over this CD esp when a bit of cut, (well they do very well,much better than low on this straight course) but he will appreciate the more it dries out. He’s lightly raced on turf but seems to be getting it together and ran well over CD two starts back, when carried to the far rail, raced alone and with no chance really, but stayed on well. Looking back i’m not sure how he went off at 14s NTO at Bath. Anyway, i’d like to think he will run his race here and on his AW mark he’s still handicapped to win, despite the rise and no 5lb claimer, and this jockey is worth a few lbs. In theory he should go well again here and I thought 13/2 was fair.

Duke of Yorkshire… well i’m banking on this having been the plan given he won this race last year off 66 and races off 60 today. He’s clearly well handicapped and while he’s 9, the race doesn’t have any thoroughly unexposed runners in it. He’s been shaping as if about to run a big race. He had 2 months off before his run LTO where he led until 2f, on ground softer than he wants, but plugged on. I’d be surprised if this race wasn’t mapped out. He should race up there – he can lead but can also track the pace, of which there may be a fair mount on. I’ll trust the jockey not to get into a pace battle. He will relish these conditions and stays 1m6f, which is no bad thing here. He may see this out best. In fact he’s 5/16,7p in Good to Firm handicaps, 1/47,14p on all other going. I think he wants it fast, which means that run LTO can be marked up further. He’s 1/3,2p in CD handicaps and looks sure to make a good go of defending his race crown.

Ladies First… hopefully the ‘Easterby Clan’ have a good evening and i’ve landed on the right ones. This filly has been running well in big field Class 3/4 handicaps at York. This is no York C3/C4 handicap and that run two starts back was decent, staying on, against 80s+ animals. It’s her second run in a TT and she runs 12 days after LTO which was her first run in a month – the quicker the return for a flat horse (within reason) the better for me. Shes run well at the track before, handles fast, and is versatile pace wise. There isn’t much of it on paper in this and i hope her jockey may be smart and either try to make all or sit very handy in what could turn into a sprint. In part that’s what put me off the top-weight at his price, as he can take a fierce hold and may want a stronger pace, albeit he’s a danger. There’s more to come from this one and I thought she looked the one to beat to my eyes. I’m not sure why Nathan Evans isn’t here today, but he rides one in the 4.40 Newcastle for Miss J Coward, so maybe that’s a hint, who knows. But I thought the fact that Mick had booked his Nephew’s regular rider to be of some significance. I hope so anyway! Mick is 4/8,4p in 8f handicaps at the track in the last 5 years and Allan rides the place well – 3/5,3p in C4 handicaps here, 4/18,6p over the distance. She shouldn’t be far away.

Dapper Man… you’d be more confident if there were no other front runners in the race but he doesn’t have to lead and does look solid here. He may try to and could well shrug off the rest. I thought it interesting that when he wins, he usually follows up/holds his form. He’s won off 76 before and seems to relish Good to Firm, that’s when he usually comes alive. His RPR LTO was massive compared to his other recent runs and if he runs his race, which he should, he could see these all off again. He’s miles clear on Geegeez speed ratings also, and was best LTO on Inform. Solid, esp over 5f. The 34 day break is a slight concern for a sprinter but maybe they thought he’d been on the go for a little while and needed a week or two of down-time to freshen him up. I thought he may just out-class a few of these, inc the other pace setters. Wrenthorpe may be a danger but he’s up in class and the 53 days off for Camacho’s niggles me at his price.

So, with any luck at least one of them wins for a small profit on the day, and I can dream of two going in. There’s a mix of unexposed, lightly raced in conditions, and been there and done it/in form horses.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

2.35 Notts – Militia – 1 point EW – 16/1 (gen) UP, -2

4.25 Newm – Kimifive – 1 point EW – 15/2 (gen) (1/5,4p SB/WH) UP , -2

that’s all for today as of 8.00 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

review..

Ah, well, Minellacelebration has capsized and left me a tad red-faced given the write up! The best jumper in the race i’ll have you know! Gulp. When watching it you could tell the UR was coming as rider and horse didn’t quite seem in sync over the first few fences, and they’ve met one wrong. Poste hasn’t learnt how to ride that track to best effect just yet I don’t think. He was travelling well in the right spot and should still have another win in him I suspect, but is open to attack from something with more in hand. Maybe they’ll head back to Uttoxeter or somewhere.

Ballylongford… as I was compiling the write up I knew his price was getting tempting albeit he made his morning odds of 6/1 look massive. I’ve got him wrong there. I am averse to backing 11 year olds+ as a long term strategy but at least he arrived in great form. I’m not sure why I had a doubt as to his stamina if tested, given his fine 3rd over 26f at Chelt in 2016, in a grade 3. Given the win LTO also, that wasn’t going to be a problem and looking at his more recent form (outpaced over 20f) that’s obviously what he needs. Given how he’s won I suspect I was playing for 2nd place at best. I underestimated the strength of that last win also, he was beating 3 LTO winners, unexposed, even if two did come down. The reapplication of the TT on recent starts appears to have also helped. On that basis  Cesar Et Rosalie  is worth adding to trackers, as he was going ok before coming down and at worst would have been a clear second to Bally – who was also beat by a NTO winner at Exeter when second. Given those summer chase formlines, and his unexposed profile, you’d think he has more wins in him before the winter horses reappear in the autumn. On that basis Tizzard’s 11 year old could reel off the hat-trick, he won like a fresh horse, but probably won’t be 6s+ NTO sadly. Forgot To Ask and Dead Right’s jumping was sticky when under the pump – the former may not have got home either as he travelled very well into it before fading – he’d be interesting dropped back to 2m4f NTO or maybe 2m6f around Stratford. I’d like them to ride Dead Right a bit more forward as he was given plenty to do there. They both have more summer chases in them. There’s some strong enough form lines emerging between all those now mentioned above, certainly for this time of year.

Before today Tizzard was 7/21,10p all runners at Ffos Las in the last year and the team are clearly adept at targeting these weaker handicaps. Tizzard/Cobden were 5/13,7p together at the track before today. Clearly a bit after the Lord Mayor’s Show, but i’ll try and not pass over theirs so quickly next time. At least a winner for the ‘jockeys/chasers’ test zone, which is still a useful ‘way in’, I just landed on the wrong one.

The final point to hammer home into my own head and anyone else who likes playing in such races is that another prominent racer/make all horse has dominated. The front rank, certainly in these races <10 runners, really is the place to focus.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    Hamilton
    7.05 Hard Solution BOG 3/1
    8.05 Hamilton Never Enough BOG 4/1
    9.05 Hamilton Mujassam BOG 11/4
    Leicester
    5.55 Leo Davinci BOG 3/1
    7.25 Potenza BOG 2/1
    8.55 Kingfast BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    3.30 Newcastle London Eye BOG 3/1
    4.05 Newcastle Seniority BOG 11/2
    5.55 Leicester Evening Attire BOG 15/2
    8.05 Hamilton Queen Pen BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.20 Newmarket Triple Distilled BOG 10/3
    7.05 Hamilton Hard Solution BOG 3/1
    8.05 Hamilton Never Be Enough BOG 4/1
    7.55 Leicester Remembering You BOG 5/1
    Colin

  2. Has anyone else watched the free webinar? Thoughts if so?
    I am actually very interested in the after service but the price is on the high side for me.

    1. Free post for this chat please if possible 🙂 I haven’t watched it yet, and I’m now on a train back down south but plan to tomorrow. I had a flick through some of the stuff he sent me and thought it looked one of the more interesting freebies around which was my main drive. Never seen anyone on my radar do a course as such so will be intrigued to see how popular it is etc. Yea price point is tricky and hard to know if it’s worth it until diving in but he is doing a 30 day money back guarantee and releasing one course a week. So you could watch 3/4 and then decide against it maybe! Well that’s what he’s told me are the terms.
      Anyway always happy to discuss anything I send out that isn’t mine but any replies /chat on this please move to today’s free post.
      Josh

    1. Hmm don’t think that link is working. Don’t mind it being posted esp given how quiet it is on here at the moment! Plenty of folk have sadly left these parts recently albeit I think the majority of the core have jumping in their veins and maybe now ascot is out the way flat fatigue has kicked in haha.

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