Members Daily Post: 26/06/19 (complete)

Tip x1, test x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

None

 

FLAT

Carlisle

3.00 –

Storm Ahead   (micro age)  w1 H3 I1 6/1 S6 UP

Jacob Black   (m class) 16/1

Zoravan   (m class) 11/1

3.30 –

Al Erayg   (m TJC and age) G3 10/3 

Tough Remedy   (m’s class,age and -class) I3 11/1 

Brother McGonagall   (m age)  w1 17/2 

Dream Walker   (all Hc’s) 28/1

Mikmak   (m age) I1 G1 12/1 S1 S6 UP

Algaffaal   (all Hc’s)  w2 33/1 

4.00 –

Multellie   (m -class) 40/1

Top Notch Tonto   (all Hc’s)  G3 25/1 

Appointed   (m age)  w1 H3 I3 G1 6/1 S4 S6  UP

5.00 – Caustic Love   (m class and age)  w1 I3  6/5 

 

Salisbury

None

 

Bath

6.10 –

Coronation Cottage   (m dist and -class)  ES+ 16/1 S3A

Silvericca   (m dist)  ES+ 33/1 S3A

Rewaayat   (all Hc’s,m class) 

Prominna   (4yo+)  w1 H3 11/1 

6.40 – Singing The Blues   (m age) H3 I3 4/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/74, 23p +20.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 7/36,16p, +3.5)

 

Daily Tips

4.40 FL – Minellacelebration – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/BV/Coral) 13/2 UR- which i suppose after signing his jumping praises was inevitable! 🙂 Rider and horse looked a tad out of sync over the early fences sadly and mis-communicated/wrong stride cost them. He was travelling powerfully in 3rd also which was a shame. A bit surprised he’s UR but there we go. The evergreen Ballylongford has drifted from 6s>9s and dotted up again so at best I may have been playing for second. The jumping has fallen apart of plenty of rivals as I thought it may but the second and third should have more chases in them. He clearly wants 3m now and has won that like a fresh horse again, and i clearly got his LTO win wrong, in terms of what it indicated. 

that’s all for daily tips, as of 8.32, write up…

Hmmm well this one is weak enough in the market at the moment which may indicate i’ve got him wrong. I thought the risks were built into his price- namely there’s a chance that he bounces after his win LTO, 12 days on from returning after 400+. He did win that easily enough come the line and has a decent record making a quick return. On RPrs he’s in the form of his life from his last two starts. He is also on a career high mark as of now but has yet to prove he can’t win from it and given his last two RPRs and the general strength of his chase form (his best chase runs are the best on offer in this, and by some way) i thought he was worth chancing. At his best he’s a prominent racer and a superb jumper (the best in the race, which may be worth a few lb – he’s cursed now!) and I thought IF he ran his race, and even built on LTO he’d be the one to beat. I couldn’t work out his price but maybe he’ll never be travelling or will fold tamely over the last 1/2 mile but i’ll trust the trainer that he’s showing the signs at home. At 7s i was happy to roll the dice against this lot, who all have plenty to prove. 

In a way I suppose it does feel open enough.. Dead Right is the really unexposed one but he needs to step forward and I didn’t like how he jumped LTO – i’m hoping the selection will hit the front turning in, if he isn’t there already, and put plenty of these under pressure at their fences. Given his ‘sexy’ profile I can understand his price but his chase form needs improving on and he wasn’t overpriced. I won’t be shocked if he gets it all together and Aidan looms up, and powers away. But I wanted to take him on.

I didn’t think Forgot To Ask was overpriced either. His race LTO was very weak and while he shapes as if this trip may bring about improvement he does need to prove he stays. That’s ok when you’re getting a bigger price but 9/2 when also stepping up in class, and 5f, just wasn’t big enough for me. He was another who was guessy at the odd fence here LTO.

Aubusson- there’s some money for the 10 year old and he could take this by default. Lizzie is probably a significant upgrade on her brother over fences and that may make some difference. But he isn’t getting any younger and I generally didn’t like the overall strength of recent runs. But he’s been consistent and it’s not impossible a few of these don’t run their race/hit a fence or two, so I won’t be shocked if he, or many others, stepped forward here. I’d hope he may find this too hot.

Gardiners Hill needs more I think and may find this hot enough but you could string together some sort of case. On this ground against these he may get taken out of his comfort zone. Psychedelic Rock has stamina to prove and his chase form so far has been in small fields where he’s had all the time in the world to measure fences etc – and he still doesn’t look a natural at them when under the pump. He is intriguing as it could be now that he wants this trip, mixed message from how he runs, and this feels deeper than the races he’s been running in, where he may have also got closer due to steadily run races etc.

Bally Longford…well he’s been taking a walk all morning also from 6s which I thought was ok, if not overly generous – his two market leaders capsized LTO, one early on, the other late on when he’d yet to be asked a question. He was then left to coast home really with his other inferior rival under the pump. Again his jumping can be scratchy at times. But 8s is becoming more interesting but he is 11, and actually in a true test does have to prove he stays.

Kings Monarch should have a nice chase in him in theory but he hasn’t got it together as yet outside of C4 level, albeit judging him on two starts back and just on LTO may be harsh. I wonder if they may revert to aggressive tactics, but he has been held up a few times now and in general I need to stop being with hold up chasers! He can hit a fence and the selection has him well beat on formlines through Minella Daddy, but of course mine may flop. He also has stamina to prove but he’s interesting also. Maybe this is the race where he steps forward but I wanted to see more before getting involved.

I thought if they all ran their race mine was the one to beat. I like the Minella Daddy form, I think it’s strong and he did it easily enough. He has some decent summer big field C2 chase form to his name and if he gets jumping, the rest really could be in trouble. If he goes to 8s/9s+ i’ll prepare for a poor run. I thought he’d be stronger in the market for his in form yard who do well with LTO winners, they often follow up. It is one of those races where any horse winning wouldn’t shock you, and we shall see if my pin has landed on the right one!

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Flat Test 2019

3.30 Carl – Mikmak – 1 point EW – 12/1 (1/4, 4p gen, 5p WH) UP, -2,  9/1, well that was painful viewing but I knew the risk from that draw – the jockey has had to sit with loads of horse for ages, and the time he’s got out, far too late. I hoped he may swing wide into the straight but he stayed up the rail with no run. He was the last jockey to move, annoying, but I knew the risk there. On another day he goes very close. Damn. He’s clearly still in superb form and you’d think would be winning soon albeit he probably won’t be missed. 

6.40 Bath – Singing The Blues – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) 3rd, ran his race, no complaints really, got in an early scrap for the lead but his opponent nearly hung on and won so that’s that. 

that’s all for today’s test, 09.19…

MikMak… a bit of a risky one, especially given he’s a hold up horse drawn wide. They should drop him in but on paper at least there is so so much pace in this. Whether it works out that way we shall see but it could be strongly run and play into the hands of the closers. Tim Easterby has run 15 horses in this race, 1 winner, 4 further places… the winner and a few of the places were not from his ‘usual’ jockeys so the booking of Hart doesn’t concern me – they have a good record together. Whether Allan/RR had  1st then 2nd pick i’m not sure but at 12s I won’t over think it. He won’t mind the decent ground, has C2 form, his mark is fine I think, and he stays further which may be no bad thing. A strongly run 8f race up this hill may be ideal and he arrives in form, going forward at the line on his last two starts. With 4 places I was happy to take an EW stab. Hopefully at worst he runs into 3rd/4th.

Singing The Blues… well he’s the solid one in this. He stays, handles the ground, the track, is in superb form and will race prominently/may try and lead. His recent form is rather ‘hot’ also, where he’s been second he’s been splitting unexposed NTO winners, gaps back to the rest, and he will be the one they have to beat as they turn for home. The jockey knows him and rides the track well and the yard are ticking along, probably more placed horses than they’d like, but a good sign. Enhanced looks a clear danger but he has to prove he can win, he will stay (shapes as if he will) and if he can handle this track. He’s also been held up, and I hope they do the same again. Clearly he may blow this lot away with stacks in hand, that’s possible but I thought i’d take him on. I didn’t really like Moghram at the price, and the rest have questions. It does look to be between the top 3.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

None today.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

2.40 FL – Espinator

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

4.10 FL – Gone Platinum

Jockeys/Chasers

4.40 FL – Bally Longford / Minellacelebration / Gardniners Hill

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Review: Part 1 READ HERE>>>

Do comment away in the post above, i’d be interested in your moment of the week or any eye-catchers for our notebooks! 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Ffos Las 4-40. Gardiners Hill , thought the 9.6 on bf was generous so have had a bit of a punt.

  2. COLINS BETS
    Carlisle
    3.00 Jacob Black BOG 14/1
    3.30 Lamloom BOG 7/1
    3.30 Club Wexford BOG 11/2
    4.00 Appointed BOG 7/1
    4.10 F/L Gone Platinum BOG 5/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.10 F/L New Millenium BOG 13/2
    4.00 Carlisle Sea Of Mystery BOG 40/1
    5.00 Carlisle Javelin BOG 5/1
    9.10 Bath The Daley Express BOG 10/1
    NEW METHOD
    4.50 Salisbury General Zoff BOG 15/2
    6.40 Bath Singing The Blues BOG 7/2
    Colin

  3. Morning Josh
    Just been onto BHA checked their going on 4 meetings attempted to go onto Salisbury and message game unusal activity from your computer would not let me in, box saying i am not a robot which i ticked and had to pick out the bridges and then let me in, is this normal from them.
    Little surprised having only clicked on 5 times in total, for this to happen, unable to contact my son for he his working and not allowed to use phone at work.
    I am calm and relaxed no i am not Computers and BHA, they must have known not keen on them Ha Ha, just a little worried should i have clicked on i am not a robot, my security is first class for my son sorts it out for me.
    Colin

    1. hmmm, that doesn’t happen with me but maybe your security settings or something their end, no idea, the i’m not a robot is a standard practice in plenty of places, but usually when having to log into something. Nothing to worry about.
      I didn’t look at Salis, but according to site FL, Carlisle and Bath Clerks they are all set fair for the day, not expecting any rain etc, so with any luck the ground is as advertised! We shall find out soon enough but at least if their forecasts are correct there shouldn’t be any deterioration – whether their going sticks/readings are a true measure of the going, time will tell!
      best of luck today.

    2. Your son has installed a VPN. I just switched mine on and got those messages.

      Nothing to worry about, they are not on to you.

      1. Cheers Chris and Josh
        thats a confidence boost have been spoilt by his knowledge over the years.
        Colin

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