Members Daily Post: 25/06/19 (complete)

Flat test x1 + write up, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newton Abbot

6.50 –

Sizing Codelco   (micro runs) 9/1 

Wait For Me   (m runs) H3 I1 3/1

7.55 –

Battle Of Ideas   (m class) 10/1 

Old Harry Rocks   (all Hc’s,m class) 16/1 S2A

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FLAT

Beverley

2.30 –

Intense Style   (3yo+,m’s class and -class) I1 5/1 

Bahuta Acha   (3yo+,m age)  22/1 

Relight My Fire   (3yo+)  ES+ 16/1 

3.00 – Dew Pond   (m runs)  w2 7/1 

3.30 – Bit Of A Quirke   (4yo+,m dist) H3 G3 4/1 WON 4/1>5/2 

5.00 – Raquelle   (3yo+,m age)  ES+ 25/1 

 

Brighton

3.15 – Light Of Air   (3yo+) H3 I3 6/1 

3.45 – Roy Rocket   (all Hc’s,4yo+) 9/1 

4.15 – Luxford   (3yo+,m TJC) H1 I3 5/2 

 

Newbury

4.55 -Kismat   (m age) 20/1 

7.10 – Rock Force   (m age)  22/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/73, 23p +21.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 7/36,16p, +3.5)

 

Daily Tips

None, no 3m+, C4+ chases 

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Flat Test 2019

3.30 Bev – Bit Of A Quirke – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) WON 4/1>5/2... well that went to plan, drop of rain dented chances of others as well as improving his chance… and from stall 8 the fav got in all sorts of trouble, as expected – dropped in, wall of horses in front until 2f out, by which time the selection had flown. The fav may still have another race in him but REGAL MIRAGE may be the one for the notebook… solid run in 2nd, over a trip too short…a  return to form and he’s split the right two horses there. He could even drop in grade now. I’d expect him to go close on next couple of starts. 

as of 08.35, write up…

I thought 4s was a shade overpriced for this one and that his recent consistency may be rewarded. Beverley are due plenty of rain all morning and i’m banking on it turning good to soft or proper soft. He’s versatile so it won’t bother him but it may inconvenience a few others. He’s somewhat of a course specialist – 5/8,6p in CD handicaps, 3/6,6p in handicaps in June (5/12,10p June/July), 3/7,5p under Andrew Mullen and he’s still 1lb below his last winning mark. Recent headgear appears to have sparked him up a tad and he’d have won at Chester with luck in running – sadly for him he got stuck behind horses at the wrong moment and for a prolonged period. He races prominently and may even lead, depending on what Cross Step does on his first run back. If this turns proper soft plenty in here have a few questions and look out of sorts.

The dangers… well Archie Perkins did thump him somewhat two starts back and maybe won with a bit more in hand than the winning margin of 4L. There is a 6lb pull, which in ‘theory’ should put them level but AP may still be improving. If this turns proper soft he does have that to prove and has a big enough weight to lug around in such conditions. He’s also drawn a bit wider and if they go forward he may get stuck wide, or if they drop him in he may need some luck in running. He is the correct fav but there were reasons why the selection may over-turn the form. I wouldn’t be shocked if they were 1st and 2nd again, hopefully a reverse of last time they met.

Gendarme is interesting but its his first run here and that was a weak enough race LTO, needs to step forward with the 6lb rise. I think Johnston’s may be better on a firmer surface and does look better over further

Moxy Mares may be the interesting outside if the rain does arrive. PJ rides for the first time, and for the yard I think (certainly in recent years) and any time he gets the call (along with Tudhope), esp up north, they are worth a closer look. He will appreciate this step back up in trip and could be a threat – the yard remain a bit hit and miss and haven’t been firing on all cylinders but he’s 11s and there are worse horses to have some change on.

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Review… not much to say about Swanton Blue – he didn’t really run his race and based on the times the ground wasn’t an excuse and rode as expected – Good. He’s clearly just out of sorts and was under the pump some way out. Maybe it was a timely reminder to leave Class 6 races well alone!

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

None on Tuesday.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU 

6.20 NA – Skinflint (14/1< guide)

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

9.00 NA – Prophets Prayer

Jockeys/Chasers

7.55 NA – Battle of Ideas

6.50 NA – Beggars Wishes

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

8.30 NA- Jimmy Rabbitte

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Review: Part 1 READ HERE>>>

Do comment away in the post above, i’d be interested in your moment of the week or any eye-catchers for our notebooks! 🙂

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Hi Josh

    Thx for the thru the card yes I did back them so a nice profit on the day even though the syndicate horse did not run we had a good day
    Hoping he will run at Ffos Las on Weds or Uttoxeter on Sunday
    Thanks again for your efforts always appreciated

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter, no bother. I see he’s got a couple of entries in the next few days – hopefully runs well fro you when making the track. Glad you had a good day, backing a few winners always helps!
      Josh

  2. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    Na 9.00 – Bertie Boru on 4th run @ 33
    3m+
    Na 9.00 – Calin Du Brizais on 5th run @ 9

  3. COLINS BETS
    8.30 N/A Jacbequick BOG 11/4
    ELITE BETS
    2.30 Beverley Donnelly’s Rainbow BOG 9/2
    7.55 N/A Robin Des People BOG 5/1
    8.30 N/A Delface BOG 7/1
    9.00 N/A Fontley House BOG 15/2
    9.00 N/A Eddy BOG 8/1
    NEW METHOD
    2.30 Beverley Donnelly’s Rainbow BOG 9/2
    8.30 N/A Jacbequick BOG 11/4
    Colin

  4. Going at Beverley they have finally changed it to good, watched the BBC weather at noon and the band of rain again covers all Yorkshire including Beverley, it as rained all night and it is still raining in Sheffield, the only bet i have at Beverley is in the 2.30 Donnelly’s Rainbow which has won on soft and a couple of 2nds on gd/soft and my prediction the going will be gd/soft or even soft by 2.30 so if you are having a bet at Beverley doubt it will be good.
    Just gone onto BHA website good chance of showers until 1pm, BBC weather chart showed rain all afternoon and into the evening at Beverley we shall see.
    Are clerks now using lollypop sticks to measure the going!!!
    Colin.

    1. haha, well we will know after race 1/2 – clerk updated going to Good at 11.34am, but last going stick reading was 10am! Odd. I did browse at the weather on the beeb and yep did look like a solid blanket of rain but of course no idea from that how much has fallen on track – Clerk says 3.5mm. I’m pretty sure it isn’t good to firm, but after that until we see times etc we are guessing a bit. It may well have just taken sting out of it – if it was hot for a prolonged period they’d be putting 4/5mm watering a day to maintain good to firm, but no idea how well track drains etc. Unless you want fast ground, it looks like it could be ‘no excuses’ ground, good, possibly good to soft if it is still raining – or it may well be riding softer! We will find out soon enough.

      1. Just been onto the met office for Beverley racecourse and their chart shows rain till approx 3pm then around 3pm heavier rain until approx 5pm then around 5pm eases off but still showing rain until approx 6.30/7.00pm then should be stopping.
        Do not know where these clowns at BHA get there information showers till 1pm really!
        Met Office and BBC rain allday know who i trust, certainly not clerk of the course or BHA.
        Just ordered a submarine to move about in, and Sheffield is built on 7 hills.
        Colin

        1. hmm, well the Clerk will have some sort of top of the range forecasting kit in their offices etc – they don’t just pick these forecasts out of the air, they do use technology to try and work out what’s expected – well I think they do! Those interviews with Clerks i’ve seen on tv always talk about their forecasts/what their radars are showing etc when rain expected. Not an exact science and I’m the opposite to you -given they are the closest to the action and have access to tech, i’d rather trust the Clerk’s weather updates first, as opposed to my own research at home. The times will reveal plenty.

        2. Colin, they’ve updated it since I starting wroting my post during my lunch so I was looking at an hour before you.

          1. Was typing my reply to you when you put this one on, confussion or what, just had local news and weather on they claim heatwave at Beverley only isolated spot in Yorkshire to miss the rain advice wearing budgie smugglers for comfort ( wheres my padding ) because of the heat wave Ha Ha.
            Cheers
            Colin

  5. I always look at met. off. rather than bbc and they say v.light rain if any at Bev this afternoon. BBC won’t update their weather til eve news time so will be showing same as 0600 this morning. Forecast for where I live according to bbc is light rain and a gentle breeze all day. Absolutely pissed it down a hour ago.

    1. After what you have put up just been onto Met Office again and their chart is showing rain as before and they have brought forward the dark heavier rain cloud to 2pm from 3pm the mind boggles.
      Who lives in Beverley open your window and have a look out and let us know.
      Colin.

      1. Interview with Clerk, as of a few mins ago…it’s as per BHA site, 3.5mm rain, walks good, no rain since 11am, they have missed it all, were expecting more but they can miss it at track and have. Some storms still in area, and a band south of track which they could get – Clerk interested in what jockeys say after first race or two. As I type it’s started spitting , so who knows. Should be good for 2.30, after that if rain comes down may obv get softer. I don’t fully understand trying to guess amounts of rain when the track has given accurate updates thus far, and now we can watch it with own eyes / make judgements on standard times etc. Obv we were all educated guessing this morning before their first update, thought may be tad softer come my race above but we shall see!

  6. Beverley latest change GD/SOFT

    will never trust clerk of the course or BHA, and that interview was less than an hour ago would imagine for did not see it, only that you put it up Josh at 1.55pm
    Colin

    1. First four home in the 2.30
      winner won on soft before
      2nd won on gd/sft
      3rd won on gd
      4th won on soft sadly my Elite bet

      1. Yep, the rain has been falling now for last 50 mins as Clerk thought it may do, looks like it may be set in, so you’d expect plenty more winners that have run well with cut, esp in the handicaps.

        Official update as of 2.14… Good to Soft. Cloudy. Tuesday – 3.5mm rainfall since 6am. 1.5mm since 1.30pm, possible further showers 16C

        Impressive from them imo, you may think they are just talking nonsense Colin but i’ll tend to believe them. I think they know what they are talking about with these live rain fall updates more than either you or I.

        1. Guess over the years of going racing and all the issues from what i have witnessed over the years with trainers and clerk of the course will always be doubt in my mind.
          Obviously with all the satalites in the sky the weather forecasts are vastly improved, BBC and Met Office will show satalite charts showing the rain patterns.
          Sadly yet again little to late for the punters who were expecting gd/firm, it would have been better if the clerk had issued a warning earlier in the morning that rain is on the way, and later it is possible there could be a going change later for the weather forecasts predicted it, and it was there for all to see.
          “clerk interested in what jockeys say after first race or two”, does he not trust his going stick! words fail me any other buisness he would be out of a job!
          Josh we will always differ on this going and clerks, my view he let the punters and Beverleys customers down today.
          Colin.

          1. If a punter were expecting and analysed Beverley on the basis of Good to Firm you need to re-analyse your approach… there were two.. either 1. the forecasts suggested it may change but hard to know, so you just leave the meeting if you can’t analyse as the racing is ongoing.
            2. Like we both did, you make a judgement that it may be on the softer side of good.

            Sorry, you’re so bloody stubborn at times!! 🙂 And I mean that politely – I’ve no words for your views on this example today – they did issue early warnings!! the Clerk was spot on, from early morning all the way through – the information was there on the BHA site for all to see, which is updated directly by clerks – we could both see in the forecasts there was potential for rain, in the early updates from evening before said a chance of rain on the day. The Clerk updated throughout the morning with accurate info on rainfall and going changes, and did an interview with TV pre race saying a potential heavier band of rain on way that would possibly change it to softer.
            If you’re not using such vital information so be it. It’s as informed as we were getting today and far more accurate than any tools we had available.
            If you’re not using the BHA site , updated by Clerks, as a guide, then so be it – but it’s useful, as it was today, and for crying out loud – if they say we have had 3.5mm of rain at latest update, they’ve had 3.5mm of rain. They have the most up to date weather tools at their disposal as far as i’m aware, certainly more advanced than anything we can get for free.
            Sat here, whacking my head against the table. I’d best stop, i’ll be out cold soon. An infuriating exchange 🙂
            If you think you’re getting a more accurate description on Bev today sat at home, as to opposed to their updates, i’ve no words.
            On to tomorrow.
            Josh

            p.s we agree the going stick is generally questionable, but in terms of ‘it is what it is’ at the moment, Beverley did a fine job through the BHA site today.

          2. Josh
            Stay calm relax you have converted me will look at BHA in a different light from now on, and will check their site everyday, Promise Ha Ha.
            Hope you give the table a good polish, who won you or the table ? will have 10p on the table.
            Cheers
            Colin

          3. haha, I am calm I was only joshing… well it has a glass top so I didn’t go overboard!
            I think if you combined a look at said page, https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/fixtures/upcoming/

            …with your own views built up through experience, and what you use to check weather etc, it can only improve your chances even further. The Clerks do seem to be getting better with info, bar the odd stand out (haydock!!) and for me Bev couldn’t have done more today. It is a valuable resource and the more such info the better. Agree should always be viewed with sceptical eyes, but still very useful! 🙂

    1. haha, cheers, i’m delighted with that – appears Taylor read the blog also and then tipped him haha – I’m as pleased of my reading of the fav, and the trouble he could get into from that draw – he was boxed in for an awful long time- and softening ground i’m not sure up his street either. That’s as good as it gets for a 4/1 winner! Never in much doubt. 🙂

  7. A quick look at the 4:15 Brighton and John Butler has 3 in the race who has been getting the odd win or two lately albeit lower prices than I’m hoping for today. A quick look at GG’s suggests high draws and at least a prominent running style are favourable. This has led me to Cat Royale at a pretty price with all the other potential prominent runners being drawn low. I suspect he’s not that good which is why he’s around 20/1 but here’s hoping to pick up a bit of place money and dream of a win.

    1. That was pretty annoying as I noticed after the race that looking at the draw stats the going was set at good to firm and the racecard was set at good to soft which gives a totally different draw graph. Time to email Matt and ask why this is so.

      1. hmmm… looks correct from my end… the going has changed to good to soft and when all cards listed that going is changed, when clicking instant expert it’s set at good to soft and when clicking draw also good to soft. The going in the grey bar which describes race conditions is still Good to Firm but I think that’s a static heading based on going at time of decs. I think the official going of GS has fed through. If it’s changed to Good to Soft on main cards dashboard and still showing as good to firm on your instant expert/draw, that would be odd- maybe cache needs clearing or something. Josh

  8. Usually adblocker is the culprit but I have that switched off for GG’s, I didn’t change anything manually either, just looked again and it’s how it should be! It’s not the cache as I done that yesterday. Would of backed the winner if I’d noticed though…*coughing*.

  9. Newbury….interesting races in 5.30. 6.05. 6.35.

    5.30.Ocasio Cortez w/o ..Mild Illusion, Jane Victoria and The Red Witch small e/w’s

    Portman sponsors the race and his runner, Mild Illusion, is not without a chance based on pedigree and the trainers record with 2 y.o being 5/28 with 18% strike rate and profit of £27.00 even though the horse has not had a run….so why sponsor the race? Ocasi Cortez sets the standard running 37.30 mph over 6f (average = 37.10) is vying for fav with the untested Carmel….latter is very well bred and Watson is 1-7 14% for £1.50 profit with 2 yo and not without a chance…Special Agent for the Houghton yard that has won this race previously in 2016 is too short based on the pedigree and the bookies are taking no chances @ a stingy 10/3 so not of interest at that price..the two outsiders, Jane Victoria and The Red Witch would be a lot shorter if from “sexier” stables as the pedigrees are quite remarkable for the prices on offer and may be worth a small e/w…talking pennies not pounds here….

    6.05. Blue Bower e/w against the fav

    Portman sponsors this race,too, and Gert Lush may well hit the frame but the prices on offer are not particular generous for any of the runners with bookies keeping them short on many of the runners indicating they think any of them may pop in except the two rank outsiders @ 100/1 with 4 of the runner at the time of writing being 8/1…bunch of pussy cats are the odds compilers for this one, seriously poor prices….Twice As Likely and the Blue Bower..look the better e/w options against the fav but gone for the latter having run in a C4 as opposed to Twice As Likely run in a C5. Intimate Moment could hit the frame given the pedigree but would want a better price for a horse that has not had a run but is prob that price because of De Sousa even though the yard is 0-8 so far with 2 yo this season (racing post stat).

    6.35. Zulu girl, Star Spirit and Incognito e/w

    Probably, the best race on the night as far as pedigrees on display goes. Of those that have raced fancy Star Spirit and Zulu girl against the fav Picture Frame….Golden lips may outrun her price and the horse that has not had a run Incognito looks interesting but cannot get the Channon stable right….Onassis for the Fellowes yard looks good, too, in relation to pedigrees so do not think it is a straight forward race.

    Gd lck if playing.

    1. Mixed bag of results so overall disappointing….Picture Frame’s form proved the best on offer with Willa following that one home being 8.75 lengths behind the winner the last time they met but not great form and a modest bunch and just a shame Star Spirit was withdrawn but not sure it would have won…as for the other selections, managed to avoid picking a winner by omitting Twice As Likely as did not want to put up two but little damage done on the day though a small loss…just shows that modest horses in modest races are not as good as a betting medium than higher grades of races so not sure if anything below C4 ever worthy of consideration as a punting option…according to my experience they are quite literally a waste of money so no doubt many will not agree.

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