Members Daily Post: 24/06/19 (complete)

Southwell ‘through the card’, test tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Southwell

2.15 – Belmont Jewel   (micro age) H3 I3 15/2 

3.45 – Chequered View   (m class)  w1 H3 18/1 S2A

4.15 –

Indian Native   (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A

Baby Ted   (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A

4.45 – Dovils Date   (HcH)  w1 H3 I3 9/2  WON 9/2 

 

FLAT

Chepstow   

4.30 –

Swanton Blue   (all Hc’s)  ES+  I3 12/1 S3A UP

Air Of York   (m class) 22/1

Hey Ho Lets Go   (all Hc’s) H3 4/1 

 

Windsor

7.10 –

Louie De Palma   (m’s TJC and class)  w2 H1 I1 G3 5/2 S1 S4

Sunsprite   (m age) H3 I3 11/1 

Mountain Peak   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 16/1 S3A

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/73, 23p +21.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019)  (Flat TEST 2019, 6/35,15p, -0.5)

Daily Tips

None

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Flat Test 2019

(2019, 6/34,15p, +1.5)

4.30 Chepstow-  Swanton Blue – 1 point EW – 12/1 > 7/1, UP, rubbish.  -2

 As of…08.34… write up..

What’s going on?…

Well… having written 6000 odd words on how you could use section 1 flat qualifiers as a ‘way in’ I thought I should try and practice what I preach. I did try a ‘best of’ the stats picks before Xmas and what with everything else it made me mentally fatigued – mainly as I was going through each qualifier every time and I can’t do that – I may have also lost track of what was working. That profit pile got up to +42 or so, before hurtling back down to -1. This game can tame lions as we know.

Anyway, i’m going to dabble in throwing up the odd test tip, using section 1. My initial criteria are that the horse must have either/or a H1, H3, I1 , G1 or ES+ next to their name. I’ll be focusing around the 3/1>12/1 range, knowing that 7/1< is where I may want to focus most, but in the hope of finding some in the 8/1>12/1 region that are overpriced/should shorten. And then i’ll be applying my ‘flat brain’ to the qualifiers. I have the knowledge /tools to make this work, it’s just the fine tuning. These pokes won’t come at the expense of any ‘daily tips’ (3m+ , C4+, handicap chases). And I will be taking the ‘less is more’ approach and I need to prove to myself I can do it on the level, which I will, at some point…

So…

Swanton Blue… the ES+ was the way in, albeit he’s also Top 3 rated on Inform (Master+Average) which is a positive and his ‘master’ score is the second best in the race (based on his Goodwood placed effort).

This horse is ‘exposed’ and older… he’s not getting any better and thus I want to judge whether he can win from this mark/is he well handicapped… in June 18 he won over CD off 65 (no claims), the same mark as today. He also gets 5lb off from his young claimer. He’s effectively 10lb lower than his decent 4th over CD three starts back, on his seasonal return- a repeat of which should put him bang there again, at this lower level. That return run was also decent on RPR, a 72, and if he could get back to that level he’d out-run these odds.

The horse drops in class also, back into a C6 which he hasn’t done for some time. He gets in having been dropped 2lb from his last run. The trainer knows the horse likes it here which may have been the influence for running him LTO over 5f on Good to Soft. He is much better on a sounder surface (also an excuse for Hamilton, albeit that stiff 6 may have just stretched him also, and certainly in that ground) which he gets here and having watched it back he was visibly outpaced- he just couldn’t go with them, and if a horse is going a stride or two out of their comfort zone from the start, at some point they’ll tire- which he did late on. But, he wasn’t given a hard time and he ran ok in the middle part of the race. His jockey also knows him better now.

I fully expect them to be more aggressive and to try and make all again, or at least be prominent. It could be he wasn’t outpaced and is just out of form but at his price, given his liking for the place, i’ll take a chance. He’s doing a few things different, as a reason for him stepping forward… a step back up in trip, better ground and a drop in class. His yard is also going well, the best it has been since he returned to action… 3/11,5p in the last 14 days. They do well with their handicappers here, 9/35,14p, +39 in the last 2 years and we know the horse handles the track.

With 5 places to aim at, I had to go EW I think. IF he runs his race he won’t finish outside the top 5, and should go very close to my eyes.

The dangers…

Well Jungle Jungle is a LTO winner who’s unexposed. That was an apprentice race, it was on proper soft and only 8 runners. It’s his young jockeys first ride here. I didn’t think 9/2 was overly generous but he’ll blast out and wouldn’t be a shock winner. I thought he was worth taking on esp EW, as I do Hey Ho Let’s Go… he’s in section 1 and hit’s my ‘shortlisting criteria’ – but 4s, in a 17 runner race, for a maiden… nope, not for me. He may well hack up and the drop in trip and stronger pace may unlock his potential – that could happen, but his price seemed skinny enough. I won’t be shocked if he won but i’m not sure this sort of profile, at this price, in a race like this is a good long term strategy. He’s running in a Chepstow C6, so clearly no world beater.

Micro alert… Cox does do well with his horses having their second start in a handicap… 18/75, 38p, +51 SP in the last couple of years … for those of you who enjoy your digging in Horse Race Base, off you go… 🙂 

Something else may take this, but there were enough boxes ticked for the selection at his price. Fingers crossed.

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3.Nick’s Tips

 

None today.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain 

3.45 South – Graceland

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Henry Brooke (25/1<)

2.15 South – Duhallowcountry

5.15 South – Slave To Love

LTO winning hurdlers

3.45 South – Graceland

LTO winning trainers

3.45 South – Chequered View

Jockeys/Chasers

2.15 South – Mariners Moon

2.45 South – Scartare

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.45 South – Graceland

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Southwell ‘through the card’ 

2.15 – Mariners Moon 4/1  UP/ Belmont Jewel 15/2 UP

2.45 – Atomic Rumble 5/1 2nd 

3.15 – Pacify 9/4 WON 7/2 

3.45 – Ena Baie 7/2 WON 7/2> 3/1 

4.15 – stick a pin in! 🙂 Kildaven Spider 12/1 3rd 8/1  / Baby Ted 20/1 UP

4.45 – Dovils Date 5/1 WON 5/1>9/2   / Ballycrystal Court 5/1

5.15 – Crystal Grazing 3rd 7/4

3/9, 6p, +6 .. hope you had a bet Peter! 🙂

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 4.45 – Grand Enterprise on 3rd run @ 33
    W 7.10 – Green Power on 5th run @ 8
    Festival
    S 3.15 – Pacify on 3rd run @ 5/2
    W 7.10 – Green Power on 6th run @ 8
    GL

  2. COLINS BETS
    4.15 Southwell Market Road BOG 10/1
    8.00 Wolverhampton Subliminal BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    4.15 Southwell Lildaven Spider BOG 11/1
    8.00 Wolverhampton Subliminal BOG 10/3
    Colin

  3. I apologise for this non racing related post but most of you have heard me banging on about restoring my bike, well it’s finally finished and i’ve just picked it up. It’s a 1977 Honda CB750 Supersport and i’ll stick a link to some photo’s later, if it’s alright with Josh, if anyone want’s to have a look, can’t stop smiling it is the dogs. 🙂

    1. Enjoy Martin hope the weather changes and you can enjoy eating up the miles wherever that may be, not my thing bikes so afraid means nothing to me, obviously to you it does!!!
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. Post the link Martin, I too have a passion for old machinery. Mostly old cars really, only have the one now, but it still gets used as a daily beater as my other half has a modern car I can use anytime, so mine is kind of a standby if required. The only other thing I’ve kept is a locomotive I bought off of BR back in 1981. Me and a bunch of guys restored it over a period of about 7 years. It’s now on a permanent loan with the ELR who use it for hauling trains for tourists along with making the odd trips out to other railways now and again.

        1. Eeh, we’ll need a separate post for a topic like this. I’m sure there will be some real tasty machines amongst us.
          70 yo Beeza Bantam wiv plunger rear.
          45 yo Beema 1200 fully loaded
          40 yo Rangey 3.5 v8
          40 yo Kwak gpz550 C1
          35 yo Kwak 1000a
          21 yo Triumph Daytona 995 (t595 race tuned model)
          Got a 50’s Ariel Red Hunter and Beeza 500 ( I think the M20 ex army dispatch) in boxes.

          Know the CB 750 really well having regularly ridden one back in the day. Had the 550 SS F1 myself as I preferred the handling on the country lanes where I lived.
          Rebuilding a smokey?? Are you Guy or Fred in disguise? Must have been bloody hard work although very rewarding.
          Mike

          1. I had a Beeza Bantam 175 too. Was too young to ride it on the road at the time so put knobbly tires on it so as I could race it with my mates around the old quarry.

          2. I tried off road once when a kid on my bro’s vespa…………didn’t go to plan at all.

    1. Monday is a shocker for horse race meetings. Tuesday is not really any better. We all need a break after Royal Ascot and no one is in great form either.

      I was trying to fathom out the Northumberland Plate this coming Saturday but it was too hard at this stage. I did spot in the declarations a horse named Magellan. He was purchased for £58,000 with the grand national in mind by his owners. He has been running over hurdles for his trainer Philip Kirby without any great success. He is 50/1 in places and 33/1 in others. The horse ran on the flat over 12 furlongs for Roger Charlton and he has had a wind operation fairly recently. I may have a go on him later in the week if he is still in the race.

      1. Couldn’t agree more Martin. The afternoon holds nothing of interest for me. Pinning my hopes on Windsor really. Just waiting to see if there are any non runners due to the unpredictable weather conditions we seem to be getting at the mo’. Will post ’em around 4.30 all being well.

  4. Hi Josh
    Just read your article on Ascot review part one ref the jockeys 86 winners from 150 races, that does not surprise me, years ago in the pub Richard a non gambler said top races you only have to look at top named jockeys for they always appear to win the big races.
    This must have been before 1992 for it was in my cousins pub in Matlock and moved to Sheffield that year, so no doubt steam is coming out of the machine has i type,certainly well worth looking into, for normally i pick the wrong race when backing them, so hopefully you will find a way in.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. Yep, I mean most of those are associated with a big stable and/or a big owner, who also tend to have the best horses, so no surprise they work with the top jocks and results flow… I mean Buick is most unfortunate as he’d have been on all of Doyler’s winners I think, but whether he’d have won on them who knows! The Dettori pointers did well as did Spencer EW (couple of places from three 8f rides, could have won on two of them on another day, maintaining his silly EW % over that CD) – Atzeni is hard to make a profit from but have to just pick – and it was the breakthrough year for Tudhope – I mean that sort of winning info is just useful to know as a ‘way in’ more than anything. If Crowley’s Sheik had a few more good’uns he may be pushing that group also but gave Afaak a peach.
      It isn’t a shock really – they tend to have experience of riding good horses, settling them, and getting their horse in the right position for them, and tend to make fewer errors than the others. They are no doubt calmer also which feeds through to the horse- as well as being on the best horses plenty of the time!
      Some of Tudhope’s rides, well all of them really, were masterful. The sort of week when you realise how much he’s worth in plenty of these northern races – suspect he just out rides plenty of jockeys and wins when he shouldn’t etc.

  5. Definitely a very poor days racing but after the Ascot glut not surprising so just two today…one in France and one in the UK at Wolvs.

    3.10 Maisons-Laffitte 5f.Listed race selections Pirandello/Shades of Blue…now win only if you do not like doing the two go for Pirandello at a bigger price and just shades the other on speed.

    Was going to put up Pirandello each way until 8 runners became 7 (really p****s) me off because it happens all the time and I believe is quite deliberate to give bookies an edge just like 16 runner hcps going down to 15 runners so only 3 places as opposed to 4…just happens far too much to be coincidence. My pet gripe as you will be well aware by now but this game is hard enough without bookies giving themselves more advantages than they already have…just check what they did regarding Frankies runners at Ascot to see how they manipulate the markets to disadvantage punters…

    6.30. at Wolvs. Sermon w/o

    Dazzling Des should go close and hopefully Forgetful Agent will get the third spot…not sure if good enough to win but is a good price for a place. CAUTION advised and small stakes only….gd lck if playing

    1. 3.10….Advised the wrong horse (disappointing run) but the other won..typical…apologies….hope for better in the Wolver race.

  6. Lambourn
    May won 12.5 points, June minus -8 points so still a profit and i only back win missed a few which should have had but still getting my head around them.
    Charles Hills not disappointed with his views did miss a 28/1 winner at Newcastle.
    6.40 Windsor Drumnadrought 25/1 ew chance thats his view
    Richard Hughes
    7.10 Windsor Sunsprite 15/2
    Ed Walker
    7.10 Windsor Mountain Peak 18/1 he says ew
    8.15 Baryshnikov 13/2
    8.45 Jack D’ Or 4/1 again with Ed Walker missed probably a few winners definetly 2 at 8/1 and 1 at 10/1.
    Jamie Osbourne one runner tonight and on his video must have asked 10 work riders how many it would beat home and after the 10 replies, if that does not convince you not to back it nothing will.
    Colin

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