Members Daily Post: 21/06/19 (complete)

Wokingham Pointers..Test x5, Nick’s Tips x4, Section 1 (complete), test zone, RA day 4 pointers
Wokingham Pointers..Test x5, Nick's Tips x4, Section 1 (complete), test zone, RA day 4 pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.20 – Angel Of The North   (all Hc’s,micro dist)  w2  ES+ H3 9/4 S3A

3.30 –

Joly Maker   (m -class) 7/1 

Royal Beekeeper   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 9/2 S3A

4.05 –

Bandsman   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ 7/2 S3A

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FLAT

Ascot

None

 

Redcar

3.55 – Reggae Runner   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 G1 8/1 S3A# S6 

 

Ayr

5.55 –

Bollin Ted   (m class) H3 5/1 

King Of Naples   (m’s class and runs) 16/1 

Home Before Dusk   (m’s dist and runs) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4

Haymarket   (4yo+) G3 12/1 

Judith Gardenia   (4yo+) 66/1 

7.05 –

Golden Jeffrey   (m class) H3 12/1 

Tomorrows Angel   (m class) 14/1 

7.40 – Never Be Enough   (m dist) I3 G1 15/2 S6 

8.10 – Jacob Black   (m runs) H3 I3 G3 13/2 S4

8.45 – Shepherds Purse    (m runs) I3 G1 6/1 S6 

9.15 – Mujassam   (m -class)  w1 H1 I1 3/1 

 

Goodwood

7.30 – Wannie Mae   (all Hc’s) G3 7/2 

 

Newmarket

7.50 – Gold Arrow   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/72, 23p +22.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 2019 5/27,11p, 0)

Daily Tips

None.

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Flat Test Tips 

(2019 6/29,13p, +6.5)

Royal Ascot 

2.30 – Precious Moments – 1 point win – 14/1 

3.05 – Humanitarian – 1 point win – 14/1 

5.00 –

Coral Beach – 1 point win – 11/1 

Maamora – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 

5.35 – Ben Vrackie – 1 point win – 9/1 

 

that’s all , write ups on the way… 09.10…

Well i’ve decided to have a bit of fun for my test Ascot change as i’m now playing with profit. I’d take just one of them falling in but it looks a tough day. I can’t see Frankie riding 4 winners again but who knows! It could be Coolmore’s day in the spotlight…

Precious Moment – well she’s a stats pick below who’s 14/1… I’ve tended to avoid these juvenile races but only because the stats picks have been single figures and i’m never that keen on those in such races – more fool me with Frankie doing the job in race 1 yesterday. I thought there was a chance Moore may make all, or try to – or in any case be right up there, probably tracking Ward’s runner. She’s bred to get further which may be no bad thing in this race and there should be more to come at some stage. It could be she isn’t good enough but at that price, given the connections, i’ll pay to find out.

Humanitarian – a bit of a punt and no stats way in… he’s trained by Johnny G. I’ve no idea if Dettori had the choice here, maybe he did. But Havlin has ridden this one the last 3 times, Frankie on the other the last twice and it may have been a tough call if he did get the pick. I watched the Derby back and just thought 14s was worth a go here. He was keen there/still learning his job and was held up last. He didn’t get after him until well into the straight and he stayed on well enough, not looking entirely comfortable on the track either. He could take a massive step forward from that, mentally. The fact they ran him in that race suggests they like him and I wanted to take a punt. Gosden wouldn’t bemoan an integral member of his team getting a winner here. Japan is a worthy fav but this could be tactical enough and i’m not sure he has the speed if it is. He was doing all his best work late LTO. Maybe he will blow this lot away but he had a hard race there, harder than the selection. It’s not impossible Frankie rides this lot to sleep with another tactical masterclass, but i’ll go with the biggie.

Coral Beach – an easy 27 runner 3 year old handicap for fillies here! This one drops from the French and Irish 1000 Guineas into a class 2 handicap. The run in the French Guineas, on softer ground, was decent, only beaten 4 L, and she’s got plenty of racecourse experience which I thought may help. There could be a slight shift with AOB in these handicaps – he has so many well bred ones and he dominated the last race of day 3. In any case these conditions could bring about plenty and at double figures I wanted to have a go, just in case she has too much class for them. I thought it interesting she was the only runner from the yard, and it would indicate a possible plan of sorts since her last run. There are plenty of recent front runners in this but it’s hard to know who may definitely go forward and whether they’ll be a pace bias or not. I couldn’t work out where it would be if so…

Maamora – well sticking with ‘winners’ as the week goes on is no bad thing… AOB/Gosden/Stoute/Moore/Dettori etc… Crisford’s 3 runners here have run well so far, inc a winner, and I thought this could be anything sort was interesting. She may blast out and race prominently and it could be any track bias switches as it dries out. Really it was pace/trainer/profile/price… and that’s what i’ve gone with. The trainer does well with his handicap debutants and this one stays further which could help. Frankie hasn’t done below 8-8 in the last year, so I assume that’s why he isn’t on.

I should mention Hotsy Totsy...  I do just back all of these Spencer rides over the straight 8f here and maybe this one will bolt up – 7s was just a tad too short for me to ‘tip’ in a race of this nature but he may leave me red faced, as he did last year in this. (another well fancied Walker horse, they must be bullish again) Hopefully so, if my two above bomb out. It will be interesting how he rides her as she’s been handy on recent runs – he’s a master from front or back, very much depends on the horse and at which point in the pack they go their pace/settle etc. 

Ben Vrackie – my only Dettori tip of the day which may be foolish. This one only started racing last July and his best run was his final start of last season. He really could be anything this season and he could make this sort of mark look lenient at some point. I can’t think fitness will be a problem and it may be a positive that he returns in this race, signalling a plan of sorts. Wide draws are fine over this CD, and are actually preferable. Those drawn 1-7 tend to struggle, albeit they are all generally a big price. Frankie should be able to keep out of trouble and sweep up the middle on the turn for home. This trip may be on the short side for him but again he’s another who stays further and in these races that’s a positive. He won’t lack for stamina here. 

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

3.40 Ascot – Advertise – 1 point EW – 15/2 (betfS/PP) 7/1 (bet365/WH) 

3.55 Redcar – Donncha – 1 point EW – 13/2 (gen) 

6.45 Newmarket – Lynchpin – 1 point EW – 33/1 (bet365/PP) 28/1 (gen) 

9.15 Ayr – Pudding Chare – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) (1/5,4p Lad/Coral/BetF/ToteS) 

that’s all from Nick, as of 08.07 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.05 MR – Gone Platinum 

LTO winning hurdlers

3.30 MR .- Ballyfarsoon 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

4.05 MR – Steel Wave 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Notes 2019 : READ HERE>>>

Big Race Stats/Trends... Saturday’s Wokingham Handicap : READ HERE>>>>

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Royal Ascot Day 4

2.30 – Last Surprise (8/1< guide) / Precious Moments 

3.05 – Private Secretary (8/1< guide) 

3.40 – Advertise (8/1< guide) / Ten Sovereigns 

4.20 – Hermosa / Jubiloso / Twist N Shake (8/1< guide) 

5.00 – Hotsy Totsy 

5.35 – Ben Vrackie (8/1< guide)  

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Saturday: Wokingham Handicap 

the 2x 10/10 stats leave 11…

Cape Byron / Foxtrot Lady / Bacchus / Soldiers Minute / Perfection / Recon Mission / Cenotaph / Gifted Master / Marnie James / Tis Marvellous / Fighting Irish 

Those yet to run above G3 and with 17 or fewer handicap runs…

Cape Byron / Foxtrot lady / Recon Mission / Soldiers Minute / Perfection / Cenotaph / Marnie James 

Those who won LTO or beaten no more than 5L (8/54, 18p)…

Cape Byron / Foxtrot Lady / Recon Mission / Soldiers Minute 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Anyone remember last year was it Ascott where the bias changed from one side to the other the next day??
    Thinking same thing could happen 2moz if the ground is drying out a bit so could favour low draws on the straight
    Just something that popped into my head

    1. Yep I wouldn’t be put off by low if you’re getting a price on straight track. Does look more of a pace bias than track bias. Two of top five in 5pm were drawn very low but most of pace was high /nearside was ahead entering latter half of race. You’re right, it can switch dramatically as dries so don’t be dogmatic about it imo. Good shout.

          1. Well was thinking ground will be drying out to good. Listening to Final Furlong pod now Ward never had a winner at 6 Furlongs

          2. Wesley Ward has had 1 winner at 6f at Royal Ascot (Undrafted 2015)
            1 winner, 2*2nds & a 3rd from 18 runners.
            He just has a better record at 5f.

  2. Byron Flyer interesting 2moz also in the last race 5.35
    Top rated but only 7lbs seperates top and bottom weight, similar to the Grand Visir race on Tues
    Same Tr Williams obviously good at these, ran well last time out. Ran in a 2M last year at Haydock 2nd to that winner The Grand Visir
    Random jock booking Barzalona, not a bad one tho
    Wide draw not all that bad
    8 yr old is the only bigger neg

  3. Although shorter than I tend to back these days I have Match Maker 6:30 Ayr in a Graham Lee system where he has a 33% strike rate with Crisford (+20) and the combination are 2/2 at Ayr. At least some 11/4 about, looks to have the form in the book and wouldn’t have thought they would go to Ayr just to get a run in to him after 24 months off.

    Chris R.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    N 5.05 – Mountain Rescue on 7th run @ 20
    A 5.35 – Lucius Tiberius on 3rd run @ 20
    G 7.30 – Lady of Shalott on 4th run @ 15/2
    A 8.45 – Jessie Allen on 7th run @ 33
    Festival
    R 3.55 – Tricron on 5th and 7th run @ 18
    N 5.05 – Mountain Rescue on 8th run @ 20

    up to 3 runs are around 50 pts up this week so far after clearing about 30 last week. There’s no way I’ll get the time to re-trace all past runners to complete a new stats base but they profitted in 2018 and will do this year bearing in mind more prof is achieved over jumps.
    Looking at this year from 3 Jan, A case could be had for backing double entries no matter the runs,eg Tricorn and Mountain

  5. My Friday picks are on the tipping post. It again looks hard to me today. I do like Hermosa but do not bet lower than 9/4 on the horses and so will let her go. I Like Jash to reverse form at the price and Pablo Escobar each way at a price, the other selections are stabs at it.

    Good luck.

  6. Morning,

    14:30
    SEPERATE 28/1 1pt win
    EXCLUSIVELY 18/1 1pt win
    16:05 Market Rasen
    CAKE DE ISLE 10/1 1pt win
    POKER SCHOOL 15/2 1pt win
    17:00 Ascot
    IM AVAILABLE 16/1 1pt win
    NONCHALANCE 10/1 1pt win
    17:35 Ascot
    JOHNNY DRAMA 10/1 1pt win
    ARTHURIAN FLAME 10/1 1pt win

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  7. COLINS BETS
    3.30 M/R Ballyfarsoon BOG 4/1
    5.40 Newmarket Edmond Dantes BOG 3/1
    7.05 Ayr Pammi BOG 9/2
    8.10 Ayr Redarna BOG 13/8
    8.10 Ayr Jacob Black BOG 13/2
    8.45 Ayr Shepherds Purse BOG 5/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.35 Redcar Beryl The Petal BOG 9/2
    7.15 Newmarket Li Kui BOG 9/1
    7.15 Newmarket Redemptive BOG 16/1
    7.50 Newmarket Heritage BOG 15/2
    NEW METHOD
    4.35 Redcar Beryl The Petal BOG 9/2
    5.35 Ascot Fujaira Prince BOG 9/2
    Colin

  8. Non-Ascot bets.
    5.20 MR Beyond the Pale
    5.05 N Zodiakos
    7.50 N Starlight Romance
    8.10 Ayr Jacobs Black/ Strong Steps
    9.15 Ayr Forever a Lady
    7.40 Ayr Glasses Up….on the tipping comp

    Ascot
    5.00 A Coral Beach

    Mike

  9. Lambourn yesterday JO had a 3rd at 7/1 and Ed Walker very unlucky not to have a place or even the win.

    Jamie Osbourne
    2.30 Ascot Seraphinte 80/1 1/5 5, 100/1 is available,
    said a few days ago that he had a dark horse for friday and he his quite bullish of a good run have had £2 win at 150/1 place market poor value at the moment on Betfair exchange.
    Charlie Hills
    3.40 Ascot Khaadem BOG 7/1
    Ed Walker
    5.00 Ascot Hotsy Totsy BOG 6/1 Jamie Spencer over a mile can he redeme himself after yesterday or will it be the wooden spoon again! Ha Ha Josh hope he wins for already backed it.
    Any thing later will put up
    Colin

    1. haha – one of the most useful interviews i’ve ever watched was with Spencer , on Channel 4 when they had the racing – learning about his approach to race riding and the approach he takes to horses, especially youngsters, and why he rides as he does, is very educational and useful for anyone who wished to learn about race reading / tactics / the horses educational journey and his role in that etc etc.

      There’s a reason that often enough in these big races, esp over this straight mile, his horses finish with more energy than plenty of others – I mean to have a 50% win/place SR over the Ascot straight 8f is just madness given the field sizes.

      And obviously in these Group races he will carry the wooden spoon plenty as he isn’t on the good horses, not having retained trainer/owners etc.

  10. determined to get at least one winner at Ascot.
    2-30. Celtic Beauty.
    3-05. Bangkok.
    3-40. Advertise.
    4-20. Main Edition.
    5-00. Desirous*, Magnetic Charm
    5-35. Baghdad*, Byron Flyer
    all backed at fun stakes ew and a 5p ew accum and super heinz on non starred for a million quid 🙂

    1. Will the bookie pay you the million though? The asterisk is likely in use by the bookies on such bets. Anyway good luck. If it is online they usually tell you the max payout so that you can limit your stake. But I am only talking a small sample of them.

  11. Plenty of HCP bets to go at today. Will put them up on the TC page at 12.30. Taken straight from the machine and not even looked where they are in the market. So be sure to take notice of the minimum price mark if you plan to follow and prepare yourself to be amazed! 😉 Ha Ha!

  12. Having been otherwise engaged most of the week I have not seen much of the action. Foolishly I overcame my prejudice against Hanagan to back Ventura Rebel but of course as per usual at Ascot he managed to find a way to get beat.

    Today in the Albany I am still pinning a little hope on Separate. Possibly drawn on the wrong side, but if it is an issue of pace then she does have Precious Moments and Silent Wave either side of her to take her into the race. She has not exactly been dazzling over 5f but from what I saw of her on debut at Newbury she has more to give at 6f. The 50/1 on BF is a bit off putting as I was expecting her to shorten but it makes for a great e/w price. PP going 33/1 5 places.
    Saver on JM Jackson
    Hugh

  13. Was that Frankie ? on Japan or was it Ryan Moore, what a horse and what a ride from Ryan who has now had 57 Royal Ascot winners, if anyone on your machines out of intrest, how many Royal Ascot winners did
    Lester Piggott and Pat Eddery have, Pat Eddery a class rider and jockey who never seems to get a mention today he was a superb horseman, sadly took his own life a few years ago.
    Colin.

  14. Lambourn Update
    Charles Hills
    6.10 Newmarket Royal Command 33/1 is available with LA, BV, BO, 365
    PP and BFSB only 16/1
    He is an exiting colt who has been working well at home. It’s a decent race but he should be close.
    Colin

  15. S6 rools ok!!!

    Josh, just a ta from me for the S6’s and your Ascot tips and advice this week…..top tipping…

    Cheers,

    1. Ha Cheers. Yea S6 has had a few welcome winners in recent days. Ascot stats doing well, maybe went a bit silly today. Moore rode an odd race on his, very strange given how she flew late and Frankie nearly got his up. A game of fine margins. Still, a bit of fun in between the chasers haha.

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