Members Daily Post: 20/06/19 (complete)

test x2, Nick’s tips x1, Section 1 (x1) test zone, RA Day 3 pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

7.10 –

Equus Flight   (micro HcCh deb) 20/1 S2A 

Fateh   (m, HcCh deb, TJC)  ES+ 5/1 S3A

8.10 – Marble Moon   (HcH) 12/1

9.10 – Ballyellis   (m class) 12/1

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FLAT

Ascot

None

 

Ripon

3.55 –

Gulf Of Poets   (4yo+) G3 12/1 

Mutamaded   (4yo+,m class and age) 9/2

4.35 – Be Perfect   (4yo+) I3 18/1 

5.10 –

Tadaany   (4yo+,m dist) H3 I3 7/2 

Cupids Arrow  (4yo+,m dist and age) I1 G1 4/1 S1

Mershadal   (4yo+,m dist) 18/1

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/72, 23p +22.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 2019 5/27,11p, 0)

Daily Tips

None.

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Flat Test Tips Royal Ascot 

(2019 5/27,11p, 0)

Royal Ascot 

3.05 – Sangarius – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/Betf/PP/UniB)

5.00 – Turgenev – 1 point win – 14/1 (lad/coral/betF) 12/1 (others)

that’s all, as of 9.03, write ups…

Well my 2019 Flat test pile in these big races is threatening to burst into life, but is a tad static at the moment! It was great to see Crystal Ocean grab his Group 1 as hoped, and the reverse forecast to boot. Sadly my two handicap picks didn’t do much – a 25/1 winner on the trends long list of 10 that I wasn’t near is always annoying. And Nick now deserves a bit of luck, defeated by a nose, with Jim Crowley ignoring the whip rules in the final 2f. We move on, and i’ve stuck with the ‘qualifiers’ below as my ‘way in’…

do note that today there are numerous form lines crossing over, which may point the way to winners later on the card, esp those in handicaps etc, but we shall see how that pans out. In the 5.30 Sinjaari and Good Birthday represent the ‘London Gold Cup’ form, which usually points to future stakes performers. The latter has a stamina niggle, the former may be interesting. I liked Headman EW but he’s a non runner. Onto my two pokes…

Sangarius ... if this one runs well it will be a boost to Dark Vision in the 5pm, based on that Sandown run. The form since boosted by the winner on day 1 with a decent running on second in a group 1. This son of Kingman looks like a typical Stoute project and he runs as if he may come into his own over this trip and on softer ground – I watched that Sandown run and he hits the ground very hard – i’m not sure good to firm is for him as he gets older and he may have been feeling it. He wasn’t knocked around anyway but seemed to hold 3rd rather effortlessly. There’s plenty more to come from him. Whether it’s today, we shall see, but at 15/2, with the main main on-board, i’ll take a punt. Stoute (who’s won the race a few times) is going for the best available to him and it’s been working well so far this week – trainer/jockey now 4/9,6p at Ascot in the last year. I’d like to see King Ottokar run well for Fellowes, and if he does, it will be yet another form boost to….

Turgenev … on paper this looks competitive but the market suggests there is a fair bit of dead-wood in this, with 15 runners currently 33s +. If there is ONE horse in this race who could destroy this field, I think it’s the selection. I’m convinced he’s going to make this mark look rather lenient in a handicap at some stage. Whether it’s today we shall see.

Four starts back in October he was beaten a 5L 7th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster, a Group 1. That must be one of the hottest pieces of form (certainly 2 year old) from the back end of last season. The winner would take this years 2000 Guineas, the 2nd would take the Irish 2000 Guineas, Western Australia in 3rd (solid horse), Circus Maximus in 4th (won St Jame’s Palace on Day 1)… Turgenev had Dashing Willoughby behind him who won here yesterday and King Ottoker further back. It has a solid look to it, especially for one now running in a handicap!

This season he’s been kept to 10f which i’m not sure he stays. He returned at Newbury in soft where he weakened in the final furlong. I don’t think it was ground, but I suppose it’s a slight question. Again at Epsom he ran like a non stayer and then LTO at York they used him as a pace-maker for Too Darn Hot. His mark hasn’t moved and now he drops into a handicap, and drops to a stiff 8f with Frankie back on. Everything looks ideal to my eyes, including the draw. I think you may need to be high again, pace -wise, but I could have that wrong. There may be no bias. In any case I expect Frankie to track the pace and then kick on.

An EW bet would probably have been advisable, but I never seem to judge those correct so i’ll stick to 1 point on the nose. He’ll now run a solid 3rd.

I’m expecting full on disaster because you shouldn’t really be bullish in a race like this! Whatever he does today he’s worth tracking as he should be winning from this mark at some point this season.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

5.00 Ascot – Dark Vision – 1 point EW – 28/1 (1/5,6p..betS/PP/UniB) 25/1 (others, 6 places)

that’s all for today, as of 08.01 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (28/1< guide)

8.40 FL – Broke Away

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

7.10 FL – Zolfo

Jockeys/chasers

7.10 FL – Fateh

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

8.10 FL – Beneagles / Solo Saxophone

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Notes 2019 : READ HERE>>>

 

Royal Ascot Day 3

Qualifiers (from notes above) 

2.30 – A’Ali (8/1< guide)

3.05 – Cape of Good Hope / Sangarius (x2, 8/1< guide)

3.40 – Queen Power / Star Catcher (8/1< guide)

4.20 – Stradivarius

5.00- Dark Vision / Turgenev (8/1< guide)

5.35 – Constantinople / Questionable (8/1< guide)

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Big Race Stats/Trends... Saturday’s Wokingham Handicap : READ HERE>>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. My stab at a few decent prices although I fear the bookies will get a correction in their fav today and tomorrow (Fri) due to the drier conditions.
    5.00 A Davydenko/ Dark Vision
    8.10Fl Rolling Maul
    7.10 FL Mont Royal
    7.30 L Angel Islington
    3.30 C Rufus King

    Mike

  2. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 6.35 – Silent Steps on 2nd run @ 3
    Festival/BRT
    R 3.55 – Borodin on 3rd run @ 7
    C 2.55 – Via Serendipity on 3rd run @ 12 (1st on AW)

  3. Hi, no write ups sorry, lets see if we get close today.

    14:30
    VENTURA REBEL 1pt win 12/1
    MISTY GREY 1pt win 20/1
    15:05
    SANGARIUS 1pt win 15/2
    CAP FRANCAIS 1pt win 14/1
    15:40
    SPARKLE ROLL 1pt win 20/1
    FRANKELLINA 1pt win 15/2
    16:20
    DEE EX BEE 1pt win 7/1
    THOMAS HOBSON 1pt win 20/1
    17:00
    BEATBOXER 1pt win 14/1
    MOTAFAAWIT 1pt win 12/1
    17:35
    QUESTIONNAIRE 1pt win 12/1
    GOOD BIRTHDAY 1pt win 9/1

    as always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and good luck with all your selections today!

    1. Well done yesterday Stewart. You have battled back well after a sticky patch.

      My tips are on the tipping comp post. No time for write ups. Fox Chairman is my nap in the 3.05.

      GOOD LUCK.

      1. Thanks Martin, you have to keep plugging away, this flat game is hard! I am not one to give up quickly though… Enjoyed your musings also!

  4. COLINS BETS
    2.55 Chelmsford Masham Star BOG 4/1 needs to win to pay the farriers fees,with all its runs
    3.55 Ripon Mutamed BOG 7/2
    3.55 Ripon Dutch Uncle BOG 12/1
    5.10 Ripon Tadaany BOG 7/2
    5.10 Ripon Cupid’s Arrow BOG 7/2
    7.00 Lingfield Twenty Years On BOG 7/1
    ELITE BETS
    5.10 Ripon Tadaany BOG 7/2
    6.20 Ripon Rich Cummins BOG 11/4
    9.00 Lingfield Mondain BOG 9/4
    9.10 Jane Lamb BOG 10/3
    5/1 winner yesterday from one bet
    NEW METHOD
    5.10 Ripon Cupid’s Arrow BOG 7/2
    Colin

  5. No bets from me for this afternoon and all is still quiet on the HCP front. A quick sneaky peek at tomorrow has revealed 3 for Goodwood and I’ve yet to look at the other meets, so things look set to pick up once the festival starts to wind down. Back later when I’ve had time to check out the evening meets.

  6. Lambourn good day with a winner at 6/1 and a third at 8/1 ( 16/1 when mentiond approx 10 days before the race )
    Jamie Osboune
    2.55 Chelmsford Cliffs Of Capri BOG 15/2 disappointed did not make the Hunt Cup decent form at Meydan AW, he also has a dark horse for Friday, which he mentioned a few days ago
    Hills and Hughes no update yet if there is anything will put it up
    Colin

  7. Lambourn Extra
    3.05 Ascot Cap Francais BOG 14/1
    Ed walker will run a big race and a exciting colt with a big future and Jamie Spencer in the plate for the first time

  8. Top hats off to Frankie Dettori at Royal Ascot, giving the other jockeys lessons in how to ride the course. I hope they learn from finishing behind him.

    1. Madness! What a superstar. Not sure he’s ever ridden better and what is he, 48?? When he needs to outride Ryan, he seems to more often than not. Always in the right spot, has been so hard to come from right out the back. Pleased to have landed on one of them at least! Hope Nick’s wins the last but I do have a bit on the 100+/1 double of my two above – eeek. It clearly won’t come in, prob go down by a nose or something.
      It’s not impossible he goes through the card, albeit Strad may get stuck in mud/stronger stayer in conditions maybe, we shall see.

    2. Once again proving he is the best out there as far as the flat and heads and shoulders better than Ryan Moore.

    3. Certainly top hats off to Frankie.
      Watch the race again and how unlucky was Ed Walkers Cap Francis his assessment was spot on and will win some big races later, the race write up
      Headway when not much room over 2 furlong out, not much room over 1 furlong out, squeezed through entering final furlong, hampered and no impression after, eased towards finish.
      After all this finished just under 7 lengths behind the winner definetley one for the tracker.
      Frankie top jock, Marmite Spencer wooden spoon, never been a fan of his.
      Colin

      1. Well i’m unofficial chair of the Spencer fan club haha so i’ll let that pass! 🙂 In fairness to him he wont be riding that many good horses in stakes races this week/in with a decent chance. The Hills one clearly didn’t run his race, came back sore/issues. He’s one of the finest exponents of pace in the game, esp big fields, hence his superb stats over the straight 8f at the course… he’s untouchable over this CD.

        1. Years ago Jamie Spencer who most in the racing world thought he could well be top class jockey, and on all the hype he became first jockey to Aiden O’Brian if recall he did not last a season for could not handle the top class horses and he was slated by commentaters and journalists.

          To befair to the lad do not remember if his marriage break up was at this time, however if you cannot win on Aidens top horses you will not last long, for its the money from breeding they want.
          Couple of weeks ago Jamie Osboure put him up on one and he implied it should win then he added depens which jamie turns up, he got up on the line.
          Colin

    1. yep sure is, sounds like you’ve had some nibbles on them which is what it’s all about. The ‘less is more’ working well this week at least, simple yet effective, esp when focussing on those trainers/jockeys who do best – cream usually rises to the top at this meeting. Frankie enhancing his record on fancied runners and even more so on 2YO/3YO only races.

  9. Josh…Thanks for the Ascot stats….something that does work on the big race days…just waiting for the two other Frankie runners to win for a big pay out but, in any event, vindication yesterday and today of this approach….my figures, as stated before are the most accurate on good or gd to firm going, and am not confident in putting up selections when the going goes against the runners identified as having the best speed, even though they do identify winners but the assessments have too much guess work than I like…but the stats based profile you have identified has proved superior in that regard when the going is more problematic and at the bigger meetings so cheers for putting them up….

    1. thanks John… oh well you know me and these big meetings… I think people are more important than the horses!! Esp Royal Ascot.. I mean it’s no shock that those with the best bred horses and the best record at both preparing horses for the best week of the year, and the best record at riding them, come to the fore. Moore/AOB, Stoute, Frankie, Spencer (nearly got his 8f winner for Nick), and obv Gosden, Johnston and the likes chipping in.
      Less is more for a week like this with that stats approach – you’ll miss a few winners, but it’s fun enough either with fun multiples or homing in on a couple as i’ve tried to do. Clearly I could have been closer to many more, I tend to leave the juvenile races, more fool me! But hopefully you’ve used them to some extent.
      I don’t think it’s a week ever to go mad on, esp with this going. But around there jockeyship has come to the fore yet again, and more so than normal maybe. Frankie is just never far off the pace if he can be, a reason he rides so many winners, amongst other reasons

      1. Focusing on jockey stats who do well for particular courses is a good profile to follow as well as focusing on trainers so particular stats, for distances, class, course, hdcps, hurdle, chases etc., should be of special interest and does work so hopefully the pattern continues.

        1. Oh that was fun, and agony, thought Frankie had stolen that on the front end, nearly copped 1k for a fun double with those two above… alas, not to be! Great fun.

          1. Did all of them in an e/w Heinz for .05p e/w (said it was small stakes!) returned £106.64 for a £5.70 stake so not bad for the outlay…cheers Josh…same again tomorrow and Saturday please.

  10. Frankie is a rare example of someone so good at what he does that even Brits cant help but praise him for his achievements. Very unusual!

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